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Best Week 8 college football bets play
Each week during the 2016 college football season I'll offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, along with a handful of other key matchups to keep an eye on.
During the past two years my selections are 144-54 (73 percent) when picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season. The ATS record took a massive hit last week with an unthinkable un-perfect 0-9 against the spread. That dropped the two-year ATS record to 98-96-4 (51 percent) against the spread. The Friday ESPN Podcast record for this year dropped all the way down to 12-11-1. Here are my selections for what should hopefully be a big bounce-back week.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. (+) indicates a pick in which Phil Steele is taking an underdog with the points.
No. 11 Houston Cougars (-21) at SMU Mustangs
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Houston had its playoff chances shattered in an upset loss to Navy in the rain two weeks ago. A lot of times, teams languish the week after their bubble is burst, and Houston barely held off Tulsa at the end of its game last week. Houston should get back on track this week, and it has already shown it can put up a lot of points, like it did in its win at Cincinnati by 28 on the road earlier this year. The Cougars are averaging a differential of plus-206 yards per game, and their offense and defense rank in my top 25.
The defense has recorded 19 sacks, and while SMU has been close at the half versus Baylor and TCU, it ultimately lost those games by 27 and 30 points, respectively. It also lost to Temple by 25. Quarterback Ben Hicks has improved weekly, but he's still completing just 51.9 percent of his passes with a 6-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Houston should have a decent crowd on hand, and it should be able to get its train back on the tracks.
ATS pick: Houston
Score: Houston 41, SMU 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks (+24)
Saturday, noon, Fox Sports 1
Oklahoma State is fresh off a bye and barely got past Iowa State in its last game after trailing 31-14. Kansas is a much stronger team than last year, and the biggest difference is its defense. They are allowing 425 yards per game, but that number is a bit skewed as they've taken on the potent attacks of Memphis, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor. Kansas is holding its foes to an average of 52 yards below their season average per game, which is the No. 32 mark in the country. Kansas almost beat TCU in its last home game, missing a winning field goal on the final play in a 24-23 loss; the Jayhawks actually had a 470-366 yard edge in that game.
Kansas is plus-64 yards per game at home and minus-214 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma State is on the road for just the second time this year and lost in its only other trip, at Baylor. It has a showdown with West Virginia on deck that it might be looking ahead to, and I'll call for the Jayhawks to keep this a lot closer than expected.
ATS pick: Kansas (+)
Score: Oklahoma State 41, Kansas 23
Memphis Tigers at No. 24 Navy Midshipmen (+3)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Navy usually has its option fine-tuned in the second half of the year. During the past four years it has averaged 27.4 points per game in its first six games, and in the next five games (leading up to Army), it has averaged 39.6 points per game. On the other hand, Memphis does have the benefit of having just faced an option attack last week, when it beat Tulane by 10. Navy has won all six of its American Athletic Conference home games, but it's a 'dog here.
Last year it handled a Paxton Lynch-led Memphis team 45-20 on the road. Two weeks ago Memphis was outgained by Temple 531-323, but somehow managed to find a way to win. With Memphis on a second straight road game, I side with Navy, fresh off a win against Houston at home and an unexpected bye.
ATS pick: Navy (+)
Score: Navy 28, Memphis 25
No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers (+9)
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ACC Network
How much will North Carolina have left in the tank for this one? It got a last-second touchdown pass to get past Pittsburgh, a last-second field goal to upset Florida State at home, lost a key game to Virginia Tech in sloppy conditions, and last week upset a ranked Miami squad on the road. That's four crucial ACC battles versus mostly ranked teams, and the Tar Heels now have to take to the road for a third time in four weeks.
Virginia upset solid Central Michigan and Duke teams in back-to-back weeks, and then had a bye. Last week it had a 314-182 yard edge at home versus Pitt, but a key 59-yard interception return for a TD with 59 seconds left in the first half helped do the Cavaliers in. Virginia will be playing at its best in the second half of the season under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, and it'll take this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Virginia (+)
Score: North Carolina 31, Virginia 27
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
The situation greatly favors Penn State as it's fresh off a bye, while Ohio State was fortunate to escape with a win last week at Wisconsin and now have to travel again to play in front of another hostile crowd. Penn State has played just one bad game all year, when its banged up team limped into Ann Arbor and got dominated by Michigan, where it was outgained 515-191 and lost by 39.
In the past nine meetings in Happy Valley, Penn State won four with its five losses by a deficit of 7, 12, 17, 20 and 1. Most of those facts point to Penn State covering here, but I'll side with Ohio State to bounce back with a solid win on the road with what I have as my No. 2 rated offense, No. 4 rated defense and No. 11 rated special teams. Penn State ranks just No. 48, 58 and 48 in those three phases. The Buckeyes also beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road this year.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 41, Penn State 17
Washington State Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils (+7.5)
Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
Washington State has been very impressive, with blowout outright upset wins against Oregon and Stanford, and then last week it beat one of the Pac 12 South favorites in UCLA. It did benefit from Stanford being extremely banged up after four straight tough games heading into that game, which had it without its top two cornerbacks. Last week, UCLA was without quarterback Josh Rosen and Wazzu faced a quarterback making his first start -- and it only beat the Bruins by six with a 55 yard edge at home.
Arizona State has been blown out by USC and Colorado, but both games were on the road. At home the Sun Devils have beaten Texas Tech, California and a UCLA team that did have Rosen under center. Quarterback Manny Wilkins was far from 100 percent healthy last week, but will be healthier this week.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: Arizona State 38, Washington State 37
TCU Horned Frogs (+6.5) at No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Yes, I realize that last week I called for Texas Tech, in this column, to pull the upset against West Virginia. I thought Patrick Mahomes would've been healthier than he was. This week, West Virginia is at home and laying less than a touchdown to TCU. I will point out that I won with both Kansas State and BYU against West Virginia in previous weeks, and TCU is stronger than both of those two teams; in fact, it''ll be the strongest team West Virginia has faced so far.
West Virginia is now playing with unbeaten pressure, as the players start talking about a Big 12 title, staying unbeaten and making the playoffs. TCU is fresh off a bye, and while it has two losses, it had a 572-403 yard edge versus Arkansas despite coming up three points short. It lost to a powerful Oklahoma team by six, in a game in which it was only outgained 534-514. TCU is unranked, playing without pressure and won in its last trip to Morgantown. Also worth mentioning is the fact it was 30 points better than the Mountaineers last year. TCU has a large edge on special teams, and that tips the game in its favor.
ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 31, West Virginia 30
Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-1.5)
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
Colorado is the only team in college football that has beaten the Las Vegas number each week. It's tough to go against that kind of streak, but in this case the value is there. Stanford has taken on the toughest schedule in the country and has beaten USC, UCLA and Notre Dame. The defense finally got some key players back, including cornerback Quenton Meeks, and held a potent Irish offense to 307 yards.
While Stanford is a slight favorite, it probably feels like the 'dog here. Colorado is a legitimate Pac 12 South contender at 4-1 in the conference, having outgained its previous opponents by 159 yards per game. It's worth noting, though, that two weeks ago Colorado was outgained 539-371 versus USC and could've lost that game by double digits instead of just four points. Stanford has my No. 18 ranked special teams unit and Colorado's just No. 107, and that will be the difference here.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 24, Colorado 20
Purdue Boilermakers at No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-24)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Normally, when a team fires its head coach, it comes out with a determined effort the next week. There are three keys to laying the big points with Nebraska here. First, Purdue has a banged up defense, and in three Big Ten games they've allowed 360 rushing yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry. Nebraska is at its best when it can run the ball and has averaged 221 yards per game on the ground.
Secondly, Purdue is coming off of a game with a misleading final score. It trailed Iowa 42-14 with 261 total yards heading into the fourth quarter and the Hawkeyes put their backups in; Purdue put up 243 yards after that and "only" lost by 14. The third and final factor is Nebraska is playing with legitimate revenge on its mind. Last year it started a backup quarterback and was outplayed on the road, trailing 42-16 after three quarters.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 45, Purdue 16
Each week during the 2016 college football season I'll offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games, along with a handful of other key matchups to keep an eye on.
During the past two years my selections are 144-54 (73 percent) when picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season. The ATS record took a massive hit last week with an unthinkable un-perfect 0-9 against the spread. That dropped the two-year ATS record to 98-96-4 (51 percent) against the spread. The Friday ESPN Podcast record for this year dropped all the way down to 12-11-1. Here are my selections for what should hopefully be a big bounce-back week.
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning. (+) indicates a pick in which Phil Steele is taking an underdog with the points.
No. 11 Houston Cougars (-21) at SMU Mustangs
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Houston had its playoff chances shattered in an upset loss to Navy in the rain two weeks ago. A lot of times, teams languish the week after their bubble is burst, and Houston barely held off Tulsa at the end of its game last week. Houston should get back on track this week, and it has already shown it can put up a lot of points, like it did in its win at Cincinnati by 28 on the road earlier this year. The Cougars are averaging a differential of plus-206 yards per game, and their offense and defense rank in my top 25.
The defense has recorded 19 sacks, and while SMU has been close at the half versus Baylor and TCU, it ultimately lost those games by 27 and 30 points, respectively. It also lost to Temple by 25. Quarterback Ben Hicks has improved weekly, but he's still completing just 51.9 percent of his passes with a 6-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Houston should have a decent crowd on hand, and it should be able to get its train back on the tracks.
ATS pick: Houston
Score: Houston 41, SMU 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks (+24)
Saturday, noon, Fox Sports 1
Oklahoma State is fresh off a bye and barely got past Iowa State in its last game after trailing 31-14. Kansas is a much stronger team than last year, and the biggest difference is its defense. They are allowing 425 yards per game, but that number is a bit skewed as they've taken on the potent attacks of Memphis, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor. Kansas is holding its foes to an average of 52 yards below their season average per game, which is the No. 32 mark in the country. Kansas almost beat TCU in its last home game, missing a winning field goal on the final play in a 24-23 loss; the Jayhawks actually had a 470-366 yard edge in that game.
Kansas is plus-64 yards per game at home and minus-214 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma State is on the road for just the second time this year and lost in its only other trip, at Baylor. It has a showdown with West Virginia on deck that it might be looking ahead to, and I'll call for the Jayhawks to keep this a lot closer than expected.
ATS pick: Kansas (+)
Score: Oklahoma State 41, Kansas 23
Memphis Tigers at No. 24 Navy Midshipmen (+3)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
Navy usually has its option fine-tuned in the second half of the year. During the past four years it has averaged 27.4 points per game in its first six games, and in the next five games (leading up to Army), it has averaged 39.6 points per game. On the other hand, Memphis does have the benefit of having just faced an option attack last week, when it beat Tulane by 10. Navy has won all six of its American Athletic Conference home games, but it's a 'dog here.
Last year it handled a Paxton Lynch-led Memphis team 45-20 on the road. Two weeks ago Memphis was outgained by Temple 531-323, but somehow managed to find a way to win. With Memphis on a second straight road game, I side with Navy, fresh off a win against Houston at home and an unexpected bye.
ATS pick: Navy (+)
Score: Navy 28, Memphis 25
No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers (+9)
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, ACC Network
How much will North Carolina have left in the tank for this one? It got a last-second touchdown pass to get past Pittsburgh, a last-second field goal to upset Florida State at home, lost a key game to Virginia Tech in sloppy conditions, and last week upset a ranked Miami squad on the road. That's four crucial ACC battles versus mostly ranked teams, and the Tar Heels now have to take to the road for a third time in four weeks.
Virginia upset solid Central Michigan and Duke teams in back-to-back weeks, and then had a bye. Last week it had a 314-182 yard edge at home versus Pitt, but a key 59-yard interception return for a TD with 59 seconds left in the first half helped do the Cavaliers in. Virginia will be playing at its best in the second half of the season under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall, and it'll take this one to the wire.
ATS pick: Virginia (+)
Score: North Carolina 31, Virginia 27
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-19.5) at Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
The situation greatly favors Penn State as it's fresh off a bye, while Ohio State was fortunate to escape with a win last week at Wisconsin and now have to travel again to play in front of another hostile crowd. Penn State has played just one bad game all year, when its banged up team limped into Ann Arbor and got dominated by Michigan, where it was outgained 515-191 and lost by 39.
In the past nine meetings in Happy Valley, Penn State won four with its five losses by a deficit of 7, 12, 17, 20 and 1. Most of those facts point to Penn State covering here, but I'll side with Ohio State to bounce back with a solid win on the road with what I have as my No. 2 rated offense, No. 4 rated defense and No. 11 rated special teams. Penn State ranks just No. 48, 58 and 48 in those three phases. The Buckeyes also beat Oklahoma by 21 on the road this year.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 41, Penn State 17
Washington State Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils (+7.5)
Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
Washington State has been very impressive, with blowout outright upset wins against Oregon and Stanford, and then last week it beat one of the Pac 12 South favorites in UCLA. It did benefit from Stanford being extremely banged up after four straight tough games heading into that game, which had it without its top two cornerbacks. Last week, UCLA was without quarterback Josh Rosen and Wazzu faced a quarterback making his first start -- and it only beat the Bruins by six with a 55 yard edge at home.
Arizona State has been blown out by USC and Colorado, but both games were on the road. At home the Sun Devils have beaten Texas Tech, California and a UCLA team that did have Rosen under center. Quarterback Manny Wilkins was far from 100 percent healthy last week, but will be healthier this week.
ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: Arizona State 38, Washington State 37
TCU Horned Frogs (+6.5) at No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Yes, I realize that last week I called for Texas Tech, in this column, to pull the upset against West Virginia. I thought Patrick Mahomes would've been healthier than he was. This week, West Virginia is at home and laying less than a touchdown to TCU. I will point out that I won with both Kansas State and BYU against West Virginia in previous weeks, and TCU is stronger than both of those two teams; in fact, it''ll be the strongest team West Virginia has faced so far.
West Virginia is now playing with unbeaten pressure, as the players start talking about a Big 12 title, staying unbeaten and making the playoffs. TCU is fresh off a bye, and while it has two losses, it had a 572-403 yard edge versus Arkansas despite coming up three points short. It lost to a powerful Oklahoma team by six, in a game in which it was only outgained 534-514. TCU is unranked, playing without pressure and won in its last trip to Morgantown. Also worth mentioning is the fact it was 30 points better than the Mountaineers last year. TCU has a large edge on special teams, and that tips the game in its favor.
ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 31, West Virginia 30
Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-1.5)
Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network
Colorado is the only team in college football that has beaten the Las Vegas number each week. It's tough to go against that kind of streak, but in this case the value is there. Stanford has taken on the toughest schedule in the country and has beaten USC, UCLA and Notre Dame. The defense finally got some key players back, including cornerback Quenton Meeks, and held a potent Irish offense to 307 yards.
While Stanford is a slight favorite, it probably feels like the 'dog here. Colorado is a legitimate Pac 12 South contender at 4-1 in the conference, having outgained its previous opponents by 159 yards per game. It's worth noting, though, that two weeks ago Colorado was outgained 539-371 versus USC and could've lost that game by double digits instead of just four points. Stanford has my No. 18 ranked special teams unit and Colorado's just No. 107, and that will be the difference here.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 24, Colorado 20
Purdue Boilermakers at No. 8 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-24)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2
Normally, when a team fires its head coach, it comes out with a determined effort the next week. There are three keys to laying the big points with Nebraska here. First, Purdue has a banged up defense, and in three Big Ten games they've allowed 360 rushing yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry. Nebraska is at its best when it can run the ball and has averaged 221 yards per game on the ground.
Secondly, Purdue is coming off of a game with a misleading final score. It trailed Iowa 42-14 with 261 total yards heading into the fourth quarter and the Hawkeyes put their backups in; Purdue put up 243 yards after that and "only" lost by 14. The third and final factor is Nebraska is playing with legitimate revenge on its mind. Last year it started a backup quarterback and was outplayed on the road, trailing 42-16 after three quarters.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 45, Purdue 16
