E$PN IN$IDERS - Week 5 College Football

[NYGiants25]

Phil Steele's best Week 5 college football bets

Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.

Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread.

My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 23-11 straight up (68 percent) and 17-17 ATS.

Here are my selections on this week's big games, and the first time this season that I have the full complement of 10 selections. I am calling for three outright upsets.

Note: All times are Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.


No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (-3) at No. 25 Georgia Bulldogs 3:30 p.m., CBS
I have had the Volunteers' game as a selection each of the past three weeks and have gone 3-0 in their games, picking against them vs. Ohio two weeks ago.

Tennessee is in the midst of the toughest four-week gauntlet of any team this season, coming off a Week 4 matchup with Florida then heading to Texas A&M next week before hosting in Week 7.

The Bulldogs get this game between the hedges and have their backs to the wall. While the situation favors Georgia, I have to side with the more talented team. Tennessee has already beaten solid Virginia Tech and Florida teams and put up 498 yards against a Florida defense that had allowed just 130 yards per game before that. The Vols would have had more but had six drops in the first half.

Georgia trailed Ole Miss 45-0 last week before gaining 193 of their yards and scoring two touchdowns during garbage time, when the game was already far out of reach.

Tennessee has the stronger offense, defense and special teams and now has confidence after ending that 11-game losing streak to Florida.

ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 30, Georgia 20


Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35) Noon, ESPN
It might not sound like a smart move to lay five touchdowns in an SEC game, but I'm willing to do so here.

Coach Nick Saban has the most talented team in the country and has them playing to the final gun each week. The Tide does have road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee on deck, but the defense has a shot at the shutout. Over the past two weeks they have heard Florida has "the best defense in the country" and how the Gators held Kentucky to nine first downs and 149 yards in Week 2, with 65 of those yards coming on a drive for a garbage touchdown with 4:45 left and Florida up 45-0. Alabama has a slightly better defense and a much stronger offense.

In the second half vs. Southern Miss, first half vs. South Carolina and four quarters vs. Florida, Kentucky had one field goal and that garbage touchdown as their only scores. Kentucky gave up 44, 45 and 42 points in their first three games. Meanwhile, my computer has Alabama scoring 52.

With the look ahead, I'll cut that down to 48. I don't see the Tide defense allowing a touchdown, and the number will seem cheap by the end of the game.

Kentucky's Week 6 matchup with Vanderbilt is actually more important for their bowl chances.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 48, Kentucky 6


Western Michigan Broncos (-3.5) at Central Michigan Chippewas 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
I know this game doesn't involve a top-25 team, but I want to shine a little spotlight on a great game in the MAC, as these two teams have combined to knock off three Power 5 teams.

Western quarterback Zach Terrell is completing 69.4 percent with a 9-0 ratio. Running back Jamauri Bogan has 527 rushing yards and a nifty 5.9 average. Corey Davis is one of the top wide receivers for next year's draft, and the offensive line is a solid veteran group. The Broncos defense is holding opponents to 84 yards below their season average and registered seven sacks in two games vs. Big Ten foes. They're yielding 334 yards per game to FBS foes.

Central has the best NFL quarterback prospect the MAC has to offer in Cooper Rush, who is throwing for 338 yards per game. The offensive line has allowed 11 sacks. Central is allowing 404 yards per game vs. FBS foes, with just four sacks in three games.

Western has the edge on both sides of the ball, and a large edge on special teams (No. 23 vs. No. 106). Western has won their past two trips here by double digits. This should be a great "MACtion" matchup, but this Western team is capable of going unbeaten and contending for that Group of 5 New Year's bowl bid.

ATS pick: Western Michigan
Score: Western Michigan 41, Central Michigan 31


Oklahoma Sooners at No. 21 TCU Horned Frogs (+3.5) 5:00 p.m., Fox
TCU failed its first test of the season, losing at home to Arkansas. Now the Frogs face an even more talented Oklahoma team. This game could determine who wins the Big 12, and the Sooners have not lost a conference game yet. Despite their 1-2 record, Oklahoma is holding its opponents to 121 yards below their season average, and the Sooners offense is averaging 217 yards above what its foes allow. It's worth noting that the Sooners' losses are to a pair of top-10 teams.

While the Frogs lost to Arkansas, they had a 572-403 yardage edge in that game and looked like the stronger team. TCU was without their quarterback and top wide receiver and came within a missed 2-point conversion of beating Oklahoma on the road last year. Breaking down the opponents and results, my computer projects a 35-31 TCU win and shows the Frogs with a 516-450 edge in yardage. I will agree with those numbers.

ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 35, Oklahoma 31


No. 23 Florida Gators (-9.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores Noon, SEC Network
While there are a lot of disappointed folks who backed Florida last week, I was impressed with the Gators in their Week 4 loss to Tennessee. Florida put up 300 yards in the first half against a primed Volunteers defense. The second half wasn't pretty, but now I can take the Gators off a loss. Their defense had been allowing 130 yards per game but was routed for 498 yards and figures to be in an angry mood.

Florida sleepwalked through the game against Vanderbilt last year and was lucky to escape with a 9-7 win. The Gators defense, however, allowed just 175 yards, with 74 of those coming on one touchdown run. Florida won here last year 34-10.

Vanderbilt delivered an upset win last week over Western Kentucky. While their offense looks improved, they're averaging just 258 yards per game vs. Power 5 foes and average 92 yards less than what their opponents are allowing. Their defense allowed just 351 yards per games last year but this year is allowing 453 yards per game, including 5.4 yards per rush. The Commodores have just four sacks, despite being a veteran group. Yes, Florida has LSU on deck, but after last year's weak performance and coming off a loss, I'll go with a Gators bounce-back.

ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Vanderbilt 9


Kansas State Wildcats (+3.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers 3:30 p.m., ESPNU
This is an automatic every time Kansas State is a underdog. Coach Bill Snyder is 16-5 against the spread as an away 'dog, with eight outright upsets. Earlier this year, I had the Wildcats in this column as a 'dog at now-No. 7 Stanford. Kansas State actually had a 335-272 edge in yardage in that matchup, with Stanford getting a late touchdown to win by a noncovering 13 points.

West Virginia is 3-0, but the Mountaineers' defense is allowing 463 yards per game. Kansas State played only one half last week vs. Missouri State (game called for weather and noncompetitiveness) as they won 35-0. My website is counting that for half a game, so in 2.5 games, they're still allowing just 179 yards per game. That's a large defensive edge, and they'll have the edge on special teams as well. Snyder is 4-0 against West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen, with three of those wins being outright upsets.

ATS pick: Kansas State (+)
Score: Kansas State 30, West Virginia 24


No. 21 Texas Longhorns (+3) at Oklahoma State Cowboys Noon, ABC
I have picked Texas each week in this column, and while they opened 2-0, they blew numerous double-digit leads at California two weeks ago and lost outright. The Longhorns have a balanced offense, averaging 238 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game. The defense has taken some lumps, allowing 397 yards per game but has held two foes to season lows and is holding opponents to 77 yards per game below their season average. Oklahoma State is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry and just 129 rushing yards per game. The Pokes defense is allowing 489 yards per game against FBS foes (15 more than opponents season average).

Texas is the stronger, more balanced team, and the Longhorns won their past eight trips to Stillwater. I will top it off with the fact that Texas is fresh off a bye, while the Cowboys just fought through three straight games that came down to the wire, ultimately losing two of them.

ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 38, Oklahoma State 34


No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-10) 3:30 p.m., ABC
This game features two of the top defenses in the country. Michigan is holding its opponents to 200 yards per game below their season average and already has recorded 17 sacks. Wisconsin is holding foes to just 277 yards per game, 110 yards below their season average.

The Wolverines offense is loaded at receiver. Running back De'Veon Smith and quarterback Wilton Speight are starting to emerge, with Speight having a 9-0 ratio since his first pass interception. They average 111 yards per game more than their opponents are allowing and are balanced with 230 rushing yards per game and 238 passing yards per game. They did benefit from taking on a Penn State defense that was missing its top three linebackers last week, however. Wisconsin has one the nation's best special teams, but the Badgers' usual edge in that category in negated by an outstanding Michigan special teams unit.

Last week, Wisconsin had the situational edge, catching Michigan State off a big win. This week, the Wolverines have that edge, with the Badgers off a big road win and traveling again. My computer shows Michigan finishing with a 411-266 advantage in yards.

ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 17


No. 17 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+7) 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
I'll let my computer pick this game. Michigan State trailed Wisconsin only 13-6 at the half last week and had led in yardage 325-317 but was minus-2 on turnovers. I look at Michigan State off a loss to an Indiana team that just lost to Wake Forest at home, and my knee-jerk reaction is to take the ranked team on the road.

The Spartans have won their past five games off a loss by 25.2 points per game, covering each one. My computer is actually picking Indiana to win outright, 24-22, winning the yardage battle 428-388. Looking into it deeper, I started to understand the logic. Indiana outgained Wake Forest 611-352 last week but was done in by a minus-5 turnover margin. Last year, the game was 28-26 in the fourth quarter, but Indiana started going for it on fourth down in their own territory and it turned into a blowout on the scoreboard.

Last year, Indiana showed it could play with the big boys, taking Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa to the wire. Indiana has a much-improved defense. The Hoosiers allowed 509 yards per game last year but just 351 yards per game this year. I won't be as bold as my computer, calling for the outright upset, but will take the home 'dog.

ATS pick: Indiana (+)
Score: Michigan State 24, Indiana 23


Arizona State Sun Devils (+10.5) at USC Trojans 8 p.m., Fox
I am scratching my head over this game. I liked USC a lot in this game last year, and the Trojans rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead then won, 42-14. I know that in the summer, USC was an 11-point favorite. The Trojans have taken on the nation's toughest schedule so far, while Arizona State has faced only my No. 80 schedule.

USC has their backs to the wall after a 1-3 start, while Arizona State is 4-0. The Sun Devils were outgained by 183 yards against Cal last week in a misleading 10-point win, as they returned an onside kick for the backdoor cover. When I looked at this game, I wondered which team I would favor, so I'm very surprised to find Arizona State as a double-digit underdog.

Manny Wilkins is completing 67 percent of his passes and has rushed for 263 yards for the Sun Devils. The best way to beat Arizona State is through the air, as they're allowing just 95 rushing yards per game, with a 3.1 average yard per carry. I will call for this game to go down to the wire in a possible upset and take the generous points.

ATS pick: Arizona State (+)
Score: USC 34, Arizona State 33

 

[NYGiants25]

Early betting look for Week 5: Why it's time to sell Tennessee
Will Harris

Week 4 of the college football season saw some big comebacks, big upsets, wild finishes and the first two head coach firings of the year. To kick off Week 5, we look at an undefeated team that might be done winning for the year, wonder if Syracuse is the place for the bubble-burst Irish to turn their season around and reveal which rarely-favored expansion team is laying historically huge weight.

Portfolio checkup

Buy
UCF Knights
Scott Frost will probably be tapped to succeed Mark Helfrich at Oregon soon, but in the meantime UCF is enjoying a resurgence after a winless campaign last year. The Knights claimed to have "outhit" Michigan in a 51-14 loss, then backed it up by knocking a dozen Maryland players out of the following week's overtime loss. What followed was a rout of "rival" FIU that led to the first head coach firing of the year. Frost looks like a star in the making -- no surprise given his unique background under Bill Walsh, Tom Osborne and Chip Kelly.

Arkansas Razorbacks
Don't let the fourth-quarter meltdown against Texas A&M fool you -- this outfit is ready to compete with anybody. Untimely penalties, sloppy ball security and an inability to punch it in from inside the 5-yard line are issues specific to Saturday's outing, not endemic to this program.

Sell
Maryland Terrapins
The players dropping like flies in Orlando is a sign of things to come. Maryland is 3-0, but we are still liking our preseason play of under 5.5 wins, mostly because what we suspected in camp has borne out so far this season: This team is not physical enough in the trenches to survive life in the Big Ten East. We can't recommend lining up at the window to get on Purdue ever this year, but the Terps are generally a team to fade during conference play.

Tennessee Volunteers
Two good quarters against Florida mean that the Vols have now looked like an SEC contender in three out of the 12 quarters they've played so far. Florida's halftime complacency and subsequent collapse are just masking the fact that Tennessee is still playing mistake-prone and situationally unaware football. The pollsters are always the easiest to fool, but the cat is somewhat out of the bag with the oddsmakers, who have the Vols installed as a mere field-goal favorite at a struggling Georgia team that also has seen its Vegas stock crash this year.

The reduction in value and soft schedule means that you'll need to be more circumspect in picking your spots, but don't expect this team to beat anybody that's truly any good the rest of the way.

Hold
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is neither the eighth-ranked team it was before beating Notre Dame nor the 17th-ranked team it is now after losing to Wisconsin. We think the pollsters nailed it right from the start in putting Sparty between 10 and 15. No adjustment necessary; this is still a very good team that probably won't be able to take the third-best talent in the Big Ten and repeat as champions, but shouldn't be in for a "down year" either.


Games of interest, Week 5
West Virginia Mountaineers(-3.5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
West Virginia is favored against K-State for the fourth time in five seasons since joining the Big 12, but the Wildcats have won and covered every time. The Mountaineers have tried outgaining the Cats by 150 yards. They've tried winning the turnover margin. They've even held Kansas State to 1 yard rushing. None of it has worked, and the common threads in those four games have been the two consistent edges Kansas State enjoys: the mismatch on the sideline and a dominant 33-minute advantage in time of possession.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13) at Syracuse Orange
We wrote about Notre Dame being bubble-burst last week, and such teams don't usually right the ship all of a sudden. The Irish have lost five of its past six, with all five going over the total and seeing the Irish defense surrender at least 36 points. Now that defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder has been dismissed, will this crew play better?

It might have to against a Syracuse offense that's way ahead of schedule. Dino Babers has spread the Art Briles offense to his third program, and it was Year 2 when Babers' attack really got rolling at his previous two stops. The Orange are off to a better start than we expected on that side of the ball so far, outgaining South Florida and lighting up a good Connecticut defense for 400 passing yards. Cuse wideout Amba Etta-Tawo leads the nation in receiving yards through four weeks.

This is not the kind of team -- or venue -- that a struggling road favorite wants to see right now, and if Notre Dame wins by two touchdowns, it would be just the third time it's beaten a power-league team by that margin since the last meeting with Syracuse in September 2014. That was the year that this team couldn't regroup after the controversial bubble-bursting loss at Florida State, and the team would go 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU the rest of the way. A similar fate awaits unless the staff can rally this bunch more successfully than it did two years ago.


Movers and shakers
Like last week, there are seven teams priced lower than 20-1 to win the national title at the Westgate Superbook, with Houston replacing LSU at the tail end of that list.

National title odds
Courtesy of Westgate SuperBook
TEAM LAST WEEK CURRENT
Alabama 7-2 7-2
Ohio State 4-1 4-1
Louisville 5-1 5-1
Clemson 6-1 6-1
Michigan 10-1 10-1
Washington 12-1 12-1
Houston 20-1 15-1

Texas A&M (60-1 to 20-1) and Wisconsin (100-1 to 50-1) were the big movers from Saturday. And Utah was 100-1 last week but is down to 40-1 this week after clearing a major Pac-12 South hurdle with a home win over USC.

Ole Miss (still 200-1) was also a ranked team who defeated another ranked team, but the Rebels' impressive performance didn't move the needle at the Westgate, demonstrating that the oddsmakers consider a two-loss team completely out of the mix, no matter how easily forgivable the losses or how impressive the bounce-back.

Stanford, Tennessee and Florida State all moved from 25-1 last week to 20-1 after key wins.


Chalk bits
Colorado beat Oregon to log its sixth Pac-12 win in 46 conference games since joining the league. The Buffs have been favored in league play just twice, and have been single-digit underdogs just six other times. Colorado is giving Oregon State 17 this week, and the Buffs haven't been favored by that much in conference play since 2003, when they lost straight up at Baylor as 19-point chalk.

Texas Tech is 16-1 all-time versus Kansas, but only two of those wins have come by more than three touchdowns. However, the Jayhawks are just 3-12 ATS since the end of the Mark Mangino era when catching more than four touchdowns.

BYU is 1-3 but 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule that saw the Cougars play three Pac-12 teams and West Virginia, with only one of those games in Provo. All four were decided by a total of nine points. It's rare that BYU gives such a short price at home to a non-power conference team, but the Rockets have outgained 13 straight opponents and are coming off an open date.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting as usual.

Can't run fast enough from the Texas / Okie State game.

 

[pressitup]

Thanks for posting as usual.

Can't run fast enough from the Texas / Okie State game.

Do you still have eligibility left?

 

[s--k]

ATS pick: TCU (+)
Score: TCU 35, Oklahoma 31

I watch that CBS Inside College Football show on Tuesdays, got a couple meatheads on there like Randy Cross and Brian Jones, but anyway I like the show overall. All 4 people who picked games took TCU to win. Here Phil picks TCU as well. TCU could win, just seems strange when 4 TV guys (who I'd lump with the "public") pick a small underdog in TCU to win and the spread goes higher for OU.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Do you still have eligibility left?

If so I don't know if I'd be coached up. At least on the defensive side.

 

[NYGiants25]

Fallica and Coughlin's best Week 5 CFB bets
Chris Fallica & Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2015 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every week during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2016 record:
Fallica: 7-18 ATS
Coughlin: 7-11-2 ATS

2015 season record:
Fallica: 53-40-3 ATS (55.2 percent)
Coughlin: 38-29-3 ATS (54.3 percent)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS) and total picks are in bold. Odds are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Michigan Wolverines (-10.5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Fallica: The schedule says Wisconsin beat two top-10 opponents at game-time, but LSU was very overrated in the preseason and Michigan State got a huge bump into the top 10 by beating an overrated -- and now 1-3 -- Notre Dame team. So while I am impressed with what the Wisconsin D has done, I remain skeptical. Now if the Badgers win Saturday, I'll be fully on board.

The Michigan win against Colorado looks better now and I can't get last year's Michigan-Northwestern game out of my head -- when Northwestern visited Ann Arbor as a 10.5-point underdog with a shaky 5-0 mark, was ranked 13th and was dominated 38-0. I see some similarities here and think this spot plays right into Michigan's hands.

ATS pick: Michigan 38, Wisconsin 10

Coughlin: These two teams' schedules to start the year couldn't be any different, with the Badgers playing their third top-10 ranked team in five weeks and Michigan playing its fifth-straight week as a double-digit favorite, at home in "The Big House." So, what gives? Do you like the team that has been tested multiple times already this year or the team that has eased into the season?

I will side with the team that has played better competition all the time, as this was the reason I gave out Oklahoma State last week at Baylor. Wisconsin ranks seventh nationally in scoring defense (11.8 points per game) and 12th in total defense (277.0 yards per game), but what has been most interesting to me is how the Badgers have played with the lead in both top-10 wins. That will be crucial this coming Saturday, seeing how Michigan is the most explosive (and balanced) offense they have faced. I see the Wolverines winning a one-score game, so take the points.

ATS pick: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 21


Clemson Tigers (+2) vs. Louisville Cardinals
Fallica: I'll be totally honest: I don't have a great feel on this game at all. I wonder if Clemson has been holding some offense back in advance of this game. Remember, it was last year during this week that Deshaun Watson really became a factor in the running game vs. Notre Dame, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him become much more of a factor on the ground. And on the other side of the ball, this will be the best front Louisville has faced. But at the same time, Louisville completely shut down Florida State's dynamic offense and Lamar Jackson ran through them like a hot knife through butter.

I want to like Louisville here because I think it is better. But the public bus is overflowing with Louisville T-shirts and this could be the game where Clemson finally puts a complete game together. I can't wait to watch this one and if I wasn't forced to make a pick on this game, I certainly wouldn't. (Editor's note: Sorry, Fallica.) I would think it's hard for anyone to have a great feel on the side here. But because I have to ...

ATS pick: Clemson 28, Louisville 27

Coughlin: This will be just the second game in the 74-year history of Memorial Stadium to feature two top 5 teams; the other was three years ago when No. 3 FSU came in and pounded No. 5 Clemson 51-14. I remember that game because I was there ... just not for long, as that game was over about 3-4 possessions in. Saturday night, I feel will be different, as this will be the biggest test the Cardinals and Lamar Jackson will face -- on the road, in a hostile environment, against as talented of a team as they will see in the regular season.

Last week, Marshall held Jackson to 62 yards rushing but gave up 400 yards passing and five TDs in the air. So, the Cardinals were able to adapt to what the opposition was giving them. I think the talent and scheme of the Tigers' defense will be enough to slow Louisville down and Watson will remind everyone how special of a player he was -- and is. Home team wins in Death Valley.

ATS pick: Clemson 34, Louisville 28


Indiana Hoosiers (+7) vs. Michigan State Spartans
Fallica: Indiana gave a game away last week at home against Wake Forest, throwing five interceptions, but I think the IU offense will play better this week. Remember last year, the Hoosiers had a real chance to win in East Lansing, as they trailed by two entering the fourth quarter, missed two PAT and FG in the game, and the Spartans scored three TDs in the final 4:57 to make the final score far more deceiving than the game actually was.

The Spartans haven't lost consecutive games since 2012, but this could be a tough spot on the road versus a team which took Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State to the final gun as a big underdog last year in Bloomington. The Spartans played well in an underdog role against an overrated Notre Dame team, which obviously has issues, but were embarrassed offensively last week and struggled in the opener against an FCS opponent. If MSU wins, it won't be easy.

ATS pick: Michigan State 30, Indiana 28


Washington State Cougars (+1) vs. Oregon Ducks
Fallica: The Oregon defense is terrible; there really isn't a way to mask saying that. The Ducks allowed 7 yards per play last week against Colorado and 200 rushing and passing in Lincoln, Nebraska, the week before. Oregon is 102nd nationally and 61st of 65 Power 5 teams in defensive efficiency. Now, it faces a team which only threw for 505 in a 45-38 win in Autzen last year. The Ducks are down Devon Allen for the season and who knows if Royce Freeman will play this week. The trajectory of this program is headed down and a first three-game losing streak for the first time since 2007 would amplify that much more. With two weeks to prepare for a shaken Oregon team, I'll back the Cougars at home.

ATS pick: Washington State 48, Oregon 35


Ole Miss Rebels (-14.5) vs. Memphis Tigers
Fallica: Don't be fooled by Memphis being fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, as the Tigers have faced Southeast Missouri State, Kansas and Bowling Green -- Kansas and Bowling Green are 0-5 vs. FBS teams and have blown out in all five games. Ole Miss showed last week it is still motivated to play in a blowout win against Georgia. And now the Rebels get a revenge game vs. the Tigers, who handed Ole Miss a 37-24 loss last year. If the revenge factor wasn't at play, I would be a little worried about a letdown, but I expect the Rebels to put up a big number again this week.

ATS pick: Ole Miss 41, Memphis 21


UCF Knights (+4) at East Carolina Pirates (over/under 61)
Coughlin: UCF set a season-high with 53 points last week in winning by 39 points at Florida International. The Knights' offense racked up 501 total yards of offense, their highest total since 2014. ECU has played three Power 5 schools this season, including last week when the Pirates had 443 yards of offense versus Virginia Tech but committed three special teams mistakes, fumbled once and were sacked six times. ECU QB Philip Nelson is first in the nation in completion percentage (79 percent), but was harassed by constant pressure and on the run much of the day, finishing 17 of 34 passing. Senior Zay Jones now has at least 10 catches in 11 games and at least 100 receiving yards in 13 games.

Both of these defenses give up more than 23 points per game and ECU is giving up more than 520 yards of offense. I expect an old-time American Conference score-fest at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina.

Pick: ECU 45, UCF 38 (take the over)


Minnesota Golden Gophers (+3) at Penn State Nittany Lions
Coughlin: Please read the following information and ask yourself if it makes any sense. A team that is 2-2 and fresh off a 39-point loss is hosting an undefeated conference opponent. The home team is a 3-point favorite. The home team that is favored comes in giving up 213 yards, while the underdog comes in averaging 228 yards on the ground. So why is the home team favored? Never mind -- don't worry about it, just take the home team. I know this sounds like awful advice, but this line stinks. There's no reason to take Penn State here, but I am telling you to back the Nittany Lions, as no one beats unranked teams more than James Franklin.

ATS pick: Penn State 27, Minnesota 21


Stanford Cardinal (+2) at Washington Huskies
Coughlin: Last week, I mentioned how Tennessee had circled the game with Florida from the day the Vols hired Butch Jones; this Friday game in Husky Stadium seems to be kind of the same thing. Chris Petersen's team improved enough to compete with the top tier programs of the league like Stanford, which has won three of the past four Pac-12 titles. We all know how the Cardinal covered last week and those who had UCLA don't need to be reminded.

In that game I saw a young Stanford team respond from a decently played game to win the game in the last couple of seconds, but it could have turned out to be a costly win as David Shaw's team will show up Friday night in Seattle without its two top corners and starting fullback. Washington quarterback Jake Browning is third nationally in passing efficiency (194.9), with 14 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He didn't play in last season's loss to Stanford because of injury. The Stanford defense is allowing 12.0 points per game against a lot better competition. There might not be a bigger game for the conference in the national spotlight and I think the home team wins, even though I normally go with the team that has played better competition coming into the game.

ATS pick: Washington 28, Stanford 17

 

[NYGiants25]

I watch that CBS Inside College Football show on Tuesdays, got a couple meatheads on there like Randy Cross and Brian Jones, but anyway I like the show overall. All 4 people who picked games took TCU to win. Here Phil picks TCU as well. TCU could win, just seems strange when 4 TV guys (who I'd lump with the "public") pick a small underdog in TCU to win and the spread goes higher for OU.

pretty sure this was another team Phil was sucking off in the magazine, dont have it in front of me ... but not a surprise to see him make this pick here with OK 1-2 start and at home for TCU