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Phil Steele's best Week 4 college football bets
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 15-10 SU and 13-12 ATS.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Florida at Tennessee.
Note: All times Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies Noon, ESPN
I have been very impressed with Texas A&M this season. The Aggies could be on their way to a 6-0 start and a showdown with Alabama. But this game will be a test; the previous two meetings between Texas A&M and Arkansas at AT&T Stadium have both gone to the wire.
The Razorbacks appeared to have last season's game won, as they finished with a 25-17 first down edge. They were up 21-13, but the Aggies got a late touchdown and two-point conversion to force overtime, where the Aggies ultimately won it. Arkansas went up 28-14 in 2014 but allowed 86-yard and 59-yard touchdown passes in the fourth quarter before losing in overtime.
Arkansas is 9-2-1 as an away underdog in SEC play, and earlier this season, it beat TCU on the road as a touchdown underdog. The Aggies are just 4-8-1 ATS as a favorite in SEC play. A&M has the edge on offense, but Arkansas is No. 2 in the country with a defense that allows opponents 266 yards less than their season average. A&M is holding foes to 23 yards per game less than the average, which is No. 63.
Call it another down-to-the-wire game between these two, so I will take the points.
ATS pick: Arkansas (+)
Score: Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 20
Penn State Nittany Lions (+19) at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines 3:30 p.m., ABC
I had Colorado plus the three touchdowns at Michigan last week, and the Buffs did lead 28-21, but then quarterback Sefo Liufau was injured. Colorado's backup hit zero of his seven passes, and the offense was done. Michigan got a six-yard blocked punt for a touchdown and a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown to win by 17.
Penn State also had a misleading final last week, as they controlled the game versus Temple with a 21-13 first down edge. The Nittany Lions fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the second quarter. Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown "drive" after an interception. A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple recovered. The Owls got a touchdown three plays later, and the Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point after Temple picked up a late 34-yard field goal.
Penn State took Michigan down to the wire last season, as they settled for 24-yard and 18-yard fourth-quarter field goals and trailed by five until allowing a late touchdown.
Last week's results give us some line value this week, and we will take the nearly three touchdowns.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Michigan 37, Penn State 24
No. 3 Louisville Cardinals at Marshall Thundering Herd (+26) 8 p.m., CBS College Sports
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has accounted for 18 touchdowns in just three games. Last week's 63-20 beatdown of Florida State was one of the best-ever ratings in my Average Game Grades. Louisville is No. 1 in the country in that set of power ratings and deserves to be. Meanwhile, Akron lost to Wisconsin 54-10, then turned around to whip Marshall on the road 65-38. Those two factors have this number at four touchdowns, which is where it should be.
This could be the situational game of the year. Not only are the Cardinals coming off that massive effort against the Seminoles, but they also have a road trip to Clemson next week. A win there essentially hands them the ACC Atlantic title. This is the Cardinals' first trip to Huntington, West Virginia, where Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the past four seasons. In that Week 3 loss to Akron, Marshall had 560 yards and 31 first downs. Plus, the Thundering Herd fans will be fired up for the visit from the No. 3-ranked team in the country.
ATS pick: Marshall (+)
Score: Louisville 48, Marshall 28
No. 19 Florida Gators at No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5) 3:30 p.m., CBS
I had Tennessee over Virginia Tech two weeks ago, and after a rough first quarter in which the Volunteers trailed 14-0, they came back to deliver the win. That looks even better now after Virginia Tech beat Boston College 49-0. In Week 3, I had Ohio plus four touchdowns, as Tennessee was in a massive flat spot, having just played in front of 156,000 fans and having four huge games on deck. It was an enjoyable game for me to watch. This week, I am back on the Vols.
Florida has perhaps the best defense in the country and is holding opponents to 286 yards below their season average and to just 130 total yards per game, but the Gators have taken on three flawed offenses. I am concerned about how Tennessee's offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks, will perform against a Florida defense that has recorded 16 sacks in just three games. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs' mobility will help. On the flip side, Tennessee has my No. 15-rated defense, holding foes to 116 yards per game, but it will be without cornerback Cameron Sutton. Tennessee does have a solid edge on offense, and Florida will be without quarterback Luke Del Rio.
The Vols led 27-14 last season and were in control, but they fell apart late on the road, allowing a 63-yard touchdown on fourth-and-long after a short pass with 1:45 left. Yes, I know that Florida has won 11 in a row in the series, but that makes this one of the most important games of the year for the home team.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 23, Florida 10
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 16 Baylor Bears (-8) 7:30 p.m., Fox
Baylor is a perfect 3-0 so far, but the Bears are 0-2 vs. the Vegas number with two lackluster wins over SMU and Rice. They are low on scholarships this year, but were able to build some depth in those games. Now, the Bears will be fired up for their first real test. They still have quarterback Seth Russell, and KD Cannon has 352 receiving yards. They also have three running backs who have each topped 100 yards in Jamycal Hasty, Terence Williams and Shock Linwood. Their defense has held foes to 76 yards below their season average.
Oklahoma State goes on the road for the first time and were outgained at home by Central Michigan by 72 yards. Last week, while Baylor was coasting, the Cowboys were playing a second straight game to the wire after sitting through a two-hour weather delay which ended late.
Baylor had a 699-441 yard edge in Stillwater last year despite starting a backup quarterback.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 31
BYU Cougars (+7.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
While neither team is ranked, both are high-profile teams -- and the game is on ESPN2. BYU continues to struggle through a grueling early schedule, opening with three Pac-12 opponents. The Cougars' two losses came by a combined four points to two of the favorites in the Pac-12 South in Arizona and UCLA. They had three tight games to open last year then traveled East and were whipped 31-0 at Michigan with little left in the tank. This one should be different. West Virginia is not as strong as Michigan or the two Pac-12 foes they've lost against.
West Virginia is 2-0, but the Mountaineers' defense is allowing 434 yards per game and playing at an average game grade of 87.7. BYU is 1-2, but playing at an 89.3 level. BYU is 10-4 ATS as an away 'dog and has the better defense. BYU has held its three foes to 132 yards per game below their season average, which ranks No. 16 in the country. Keep in mind that this game is in Landover, Maryland -- not even the Mounties' home stadium. Look for another BYU game to be decided by a field goal and take the touchdown here.
ATS pick: BYU (+)
Score: West Virginia 24, BYU 23
No. 9 Washington Huskies (-9.5) at Arizona Wildcats 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks
Washington has three very impressive wins to open the year, but the Huskies now take the step up to the Pac-12 schedule and face their first foe to make a bowl last year. Quarterback Jake Browning and the starters have come out early in each of the first three games. I feel they have the best defense in the Pac-12 and an explosive offense.
Arizona was outgained by BYU by 87 yards and trailed Grambling State 21-3 at the half, but the FCS Tigers lost their quarterback to injury and Arizona rallied to win. Last week, with Brandon Dawkins at quarterback, the Wildcats' offense looked great, but it was vs. the Hawaii defense.
The home team has won eight in a row in this series, but that streak will come to an end here. Last year, a young Washington team, which was just 3-4, beat Arizona 49-3. Now, with a more veteran team, the Huskies will be able to handle this road challenge.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 34, Arizona 17
No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 23 Ole Miss Rebels (-7) Noon, ESPN2
This one seems easy at first glance. You make the No. 12 team with a perfect 3-0 record a seven point 'dog to a 1-2 team? Take the points and run right? Actually, I will side with the 1-2 team here as Ole Miss, despite that the record, has an impressive resume.
Ole Miss led Florida State 28-6 and Alabama 28-3 but just didn't fare well the last 32 minutes of those games. Chad Kelly has a 96.0 QBR in the second quarter, but just a 2.4 QBR in the third quarter of games. Those are against two of the elite teams in the country, and Georgia does not fall into that category. Georgia was fortunate to escape Nicholls two weeks ago and last week needed a late Missouri fumble and an 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:29 left to escape Columbia with a win.
Georgia must go on the road again, and Ole Miss cannot afford another loss. Mobile quarterbacks Deondre Francois and Jalen Hurts gave the Rebels some trouble, but Georgia doesn't have one. This will allow a solid and aggressive Ole Miss defensive front to create havoc with a pass rush. Chad Kelly will have more time at home vs. a Georgia defense that has just three sacks in 99 opponent pass attempts. I rate the defenses even and give Ole Miss the edge on offense and special teams -- and the Rebels are at home.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 37, Georgia 24
No. 18 LSU Tigers (-3) at Auburn Tigers 6:00 p.m., ESPN
LSU was in complete control against Mississippi State last year, leading 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter and could have been up more. The Bulldogs got a pair of touchdowns in the last quarter and almost came back. Last week, LSU led 23-3 at the half and led 23-6 with about six minutes to go when they went for it on fourth-and-1 and were stuffed at the Mississippi State 34. Les Miles said the game would have felt like a walk in the park if they converted. The Bulldogs then put together a 66-yard drive for a touchdown, recovered an onside kick and scored another touchdown to only lose by three.
Auburn was fortunate to only lose by 13 last week. Texas A&M settled for five field goals and, trailing 29-10, Auburn got a touchdown with 2:59 left. Last year, LSU came off that Mississippi State game and dominated Auburn, leading 38-7 at one point. I will call for this to be what Yogi Berra used to call "déjà vu all over again."
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 27, Auburn 20
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last season, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
My selections are off to a slower start this year, at 15-10 SU and 13-12 ATS.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Florida at Tennessee.
Note: All times Eastern for Saturday's contests. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (+6.5) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies Noon, ESPN
I have been very impressed with Texas A&M this season. The Aggies could be on their way to a 6-0 start and a showdown with Alabama. But this game will be a test; the previous two meetings between Texas A&M and Arkansas at AT&T Stadium have both gone to the wire.
The Razorbacks appeared to have last season's game won, as they finished with a 25-17 first down edge. They were up 21-13, but the Aggies got a late touchdown and two-point conversion to force overtime, where the Aggies ultimately won it. Arkansas went up 28-14 in 2014 but allowed 86-yard and 59-yard touchdown passes in the fourth quarter before losing in overtime.
Arkansas is 9-2-1 as an away underdog in SEC play, and earlier this season, it beat TCU on the road as a touchdown underdog. The Aggies are just 4-8-1 ATS as a favorite in SEC play. A&M has the edge on offense, but Arkansas is No. 2 in the country with a defense that allows opponents 266 yards less than their season average. A&M is holding foes to 23 yards per game less than the average, which is No. 63.
Call it another down-to-the-wire game between these two, so I will take the points.
ATS pick: Arkansas (+)
Score: Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 20
Penn State Nittany Lions (+19) at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines 3:30 p.m., ABC
I had Colorado plus the three touchdowns at Michigan last week, and the Buffs did lead 28-21, but then quarterback Sefo Liufau was injured. Colorado's backup hit zero of his seven passes, and the offense was done. Michigan got a six-yard blocked punt for a touchdown and a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown to win by 17.
Penn State also had a misleading final last week, as they controlled the game versus Temple with a 21-13 first down edge. The Nittany Lions fumbled near the Owls' goal line, costing them seven points in the second quarter. Temple scored on a 9-yard touchdown "drive" after an interception. A late fourth-quarter punt went off a Penn State blocker and rolled 30 yards to the 1-yard line, where Temple recovered. The Owls got a touchdown three plays later, and the Nittany Lions only won by seven, failing to cover by a single point after Temple picked up a late 34-yard field goal.
Penn State took Michigan down to the wire last season, as they settled for 24-yard and 18-yard fourth-quarter field goals and trailed by five until allowing a late touchdown.
Last week's results give us some line value this week, and we will take the nearly three touchdowns.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Michigan 37, Penn State 24
No. 3 Louisville Cardinals at Marshall Thundering Herd (+26) 8 p.m., CBS College Sports
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has accounted for 18 touchdowns in just three games. Last week's 63-20 beatdown of Florida State was one of the best-ever ratings in my Average Game Grades. Louisville is No. 1 in the country in that set of power ratings and deserves to be. Meanwhile, Akron lost to Wisconsin 54-10, then turned around to whip Marshall on the road 65-38. Those two factors have this number at four touchdowns, which is where it should be.
This could be the situational game of the year. Not only are the Cardinals coming off that massive effort against the Seminoles, but they also have a road trip to Clemson next week. A win there essentially hands them the ACC Atlantic title. This is the Cardinals' first trip to Huntington, West Virginia, where Marshall is 18-1 straight up at home over the past four seasons. In that Week 3 loss to Akron, Marshall had 560 yards and 31 first downs. Plus, the Thundering Herd fans will be fired up for the visit from the No. 3-ranked team in the country.
ATS pick: Marshall (+)
Score: Louisville 48, Marshall 28
No. 19 Florida Gators at No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5) 3:30 p.m., CBS
I had Tennessee over Virginia Tech two weeks ago, and after a rough first quarter in which the Volunteers trailed 14-0, they came back to deliver the win. That looks even better now after Virginia Tech beat Boston College 49-0. In Week 3, I had Ohio plus four touchdowns, as Tennessee was in a massive flat spot, having just played in front of 156,000 fans and having four huge games on deck. It was an enjoyable game for me to watch. This week, I am back on the Vols.
Florida has perhaps the best defense in the country and is holding opponents to 286 yards below their season average and to just 130 total yards per game, but the Gators have taken on three flawed offenses. I am concerned about how Tennessee's offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks, will perform against a Florida defense that has recorded 16 sacks in just three games. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs' mobility will help. On the flip side, Tennessee has my No. 15-rated defense, holding foes to 116 yards per game, but it will be without cornerback Cameron Sutton. Tennessee does have a solid edge on offense, and Florida will be without quarterback Luke Del Rio.
The Vols led 27-14 last season and were in control, but they fell apart late on the road, allowing a 63-yard touchdown on fourth-and-long after a short pass with 1:45 left. Yes, I know that Florida has won 11 in a row in the series, but that makes this one of the most important games of the year for the home team.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 23, Florida 10
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 16 Baylor Bears (-8) 7:30 p.m., Fox
Baylor is a perfect 3-0 so far, but the Bears are 0-2 vs. the Vegas number with two lackluster wins over SMU and Rice. They are low on scholarships this year, but were able to build some depth in those games. Now, the Bears will be fired up for their first real test. They still have quarterback Seth Russell, and KD Cannon has 352 receiving yards. They also have three running backs who have each topped 100 yards in Jamycal Hasty, Terence Williams and Shock Linwood. Their defense has held foes to 76 yards below their season average.
Oklahoma State goes on the road for the first time and were outgained at home by Central Michigan by 72 yards. Last week, while Baylor was coasting, the Cowboys were playing a second straight game to the wire after sitting through a two-hour weather delay which ended late.
Baylor had a 699-441 yard edge in Stillwater last year despite starting a backup quarterback.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 31
BYU Cougars (+7.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
While neither team is ranked, both are high-profile teams -- and the game is on ESPN2. BYU continues to struggle through a grueling early schedule, opening with three Pac-12 opponents. The Cougars' two losses came by a combined four points to two of the favorites in the Pac-12 South in Arizona and UCLA. They had three tight games to open last year then traveled East and were whipped 31-0 at Michigan with little left in the tank. This one should be different. West Virginia is not as strong as Michigan or the two Pac-12 foes they've lost against.
West Virginia is 2-0, but the Mountaineers' defense is allowing 434 yards per game and playing at an average game grade of 87.7. BYU is 1-2, but playing at an 89.3 level. BYU is 10-4 ATS as an away 'dog and has the better defense. BYU has held its three foes to 132 yards per game below their season average, which ranks No. 16 in the country. Keep in mind that this game is in Landover, Maryland -- not even the Mounties' home stadium. Look for another BYU game to be decided by a field goal and take the touchdown here.
ATS pick: BYU (+)
Score: West Virginia 24, BYU 23
No. 9 Washington Huskies (-9.5) at Arizona Wildcats 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Networks
Washington has three very impressive wins to open the year, but the Huskies now take the step up to the Pac-12 schedule and face their first foe to make a bowl last year. Quarterback Jake Browning and the starters have come out early in each of the first three games. I feel they have the best defense in the Pac-12 and an explosive offense.
Arizona was outgained by BYU by 87 yards and trailed Grambling State 21-3 at the half, but the FCS Tigers lost their quarterback to injury and Arizona rallied to win. Last week, with Brandon Dawkins at quarterback, the Wildcats' offense looked great, but it was vs. the Hawaii defense.
The home team has won eight in a row in this series, but that streak will come to an end here. Last year, a young Washington team, which was just 3-4, beat Arizona 49-3. Now, with a more veteran team, the Huskies will be able to handle this road challenge.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 34, Arizona 17
No. 12 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 23 Ole Miss Rebels (-7) Noon, ESPN2
This one seems easy at first glance. You make the No. 12 team with a perfect 3-0 record a seven point 'dog to a 1-2 team? Take the points and run right? Actually, I will side with the 1-2 team here as Ole Miss, despite that the record, has an impressive resume.
Ole Miss led Florida State 28-6 and Alabama 28-3 but just didn't fare well the last 32 minutes of those games. Chad Kelly has a 96.0 QBR in the second quarter, but just a 2.4 QBR in the third quarter of games. Those are against two of the elite teams in the country, and Georgia does not fall into that category. Georgia was fortunate to escape Nicholls two weeks ago and last week needed a late Missouri fumble and an 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:29 left to escape Columbia with a win.
Georgia must go on the road again, and Ole Miss cannot afford another loss. Mobile quarterbacks Deondre Francois and Jalen Hurts gave the Rebels some trouble, but Georgia doesn't have one. This will allow a solid and aggressive Ole Miss defensive front to create havoc with a pass rush. Chad Kelly will have more time at home vs. a Georgia defense that has just three sacks in 99 opponent pass attempts. I rate the defenses even and give Ole Miss the edge on offense and special teams -- and the Rebels are at home.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 37, Georgia 24
No. 18 LSU Tigers (-3) at Auburn Tigers 6:00 p.m., ESPN
LSU was in complete control against Mississippi State last year, leading 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter and could have been up more. The Bulldogs got a pair of touchdowns in the last quarter and almost came back. Last week, LSU led 23-3 at the half and led 23-6 with about six minutes to go when they went for it on fourth-and-1 and were stuffed at the Mississippi State 34. Les Miles said the game would have felt like a walk in the park if they converted. The Bulldogs then put together a 66-yard drive for a touchdown, recovered an onside kick and scored another touchdown to only lose by three.
Auburn was fortunate to only lose by 13 last week. Texas A&M settled for five field goals and, trailing 29-10, Auburn got a touchdown with 2:59 left. Last year, LSU came off that Mississippi State game and dominated Auburn, leading 38-7 at one point. I will call for this to be what Yogi Berra used to call "déjà vu all over again."
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 27, Auburn 20
