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Phil Steele's best Week 3 college football bets
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Last week was a solid week, going 5-3 SU and 6-2 (75 percent) ATS. Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Florida State vs. Louisville.
Note: All times Eastern on Saturday, September 17. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
No. 2 Florida State Seminoles (-2.5) at No. 10 Louisville Cardinals Noon, ABC
This will be the toughest road test of the year for Florida State. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has accounted for 13 touchdowns in just two games, but the Cardinals' first two opponents, Charlotte and Syracuse, rank among the weakest on defense in the FBS. Even though Florida State will be without star safety Derwin James, it still have one of the top defenses in the country. The Seminoles also have an exciting quarterback in redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who might be the better passer of the two signal callers in this contest. Both teams have 17 returning starters, and Florida State won this game by 20 at home last year. Now on the road, Florida State will prevail, but it will be closer.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 41, Louisville 34
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) at No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels 3:30 p.m., CBS
Ole Miss enters this home contest on a two-game winning streak against the Tide in what was otherwise a historically one-sided series. I was impressed with the Rebels' defensive line versus the Seminoles, and they have the quarterback edge with Chad Kelly. Jalen Hurts is mobile, like Francois, but I do not think he is as polished a passer.
The Tide will have to get the run game going first and then use Hurts' mobility and a great set of receivers versus a banged up Rebel secondary. The key to this game is the Alabama defensive line going up against a Rebel offensive line that is a bit of a question mark this year. Alabama has the best defense in the country and a powerful run game. The Tide lost here in 2014 despite leading 14-3 at halftime and outgaining the Rebels 396 to 327 yards.
Nick Saban's team plays its best ball in hostile environments, and since that road loss to Ole Miss, the Tide have faced four ranked teams in the opponents' stadium. Not only are they 4-0, but they've won those games by an average of 32.5 to 10.5.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Ole Miss 13
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-2) at No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners 7:30 p.m., FOX
Over the summer, Las Vegas had the Sooners as a touchdown favorite; now they're a home 'dog. Oklahoma did not look great against Houston last week, when it couldn't stop quarterback Greg Ward on third down and allowed a 109-yard "kick six."
Ohio State is talented, but is the least experienced team in the country. It has looked great at home versus a couple of overmatched foes, outgaining Bowling Green and Tulsa by 381 yards per game. Last week the Buckeyes rolled the Golden Hurricane, but didn't score their first offensive touchdown until 9:42 was left in the third quarter.
Bob Stoops is 96-8 at home and has not been a home 'dog since 2000, when the Sooners upset No. 1 Nebraska.
With the Big 12 a major question mark for the playoffs, a win here by the Sooners would put them right back in the national title chase. My computer has Ohio State, but I will pick the more experienced home 'dog to play its best game of the year in what will be a totally different sort of test for a young Buckeye team.
ATS pick: Oklahoma (+)
Score: Oklahoma 30, Ohio State 24
No. 12 Michigan State Spartans at No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5) 7:30 p.m., NBC
Michigan State is right back where it wants to be: under the radar. When two analysts on the Big Ten Network recently gave their power ratings, neither had Michigan State among the top five teams of the Big Ten.
Last year, I had a disagreement with my computer on the Michigan State and Michigan game, and while the Spartans won on a blocked punt, they did have a 20-10 first-down edge. I disagree with my computer again on this particular matchup: It has Notre Dame winning by 17 with a 470-280 edge in yardage.
I like the Irish, and I think they could be favored in their last 11 games and make the playoffs. I also know how dangerous Michigan State is as a 'dog. In the last ten years, the Spartans have been an underdog 11 times and are 9-2 ATS in those games, with seven outright upsets. They could have one of head coach Mark Dantonio's best defenses, and quarterback Tyler O'Connor already led an upset of No. 2 Ohio State on the road last year.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 20
Colorado Buffaloes at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-20.5) 3:30, Big Ten Network
Coach Mike MacIntyre inherited a rebuilding situation, but now in his fourth year, he has an upperclassmen-laden, bowl-caliber team. Colorado was just 2-5 on the road last year, but the Buffaloes were outscored by only 8.5 points per game away from Boulder. Both teams have opened with two weak foes, but the stats are similar. Colorado has won by an average of 50-7, outgaining Colorado State and Idaho State (combined 9-14 in 2015) by 427 yards per game. Michigan has won its games by an average of 57-9, outgaining Hawaii and UCF (combined 3-22 in 2015) by just 198 yards per game. This is an underrated Colorado team that will keep this one closer than expected.
ATS pick: Colorado (+)
Score: Michigan 31, Colorado 20
Ohio Bobcats at No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers (-28) 12:00 p.m., SEC Network
I had Tennessee last week and was a little worried when it was down 14-0 against Virginia Tech with a big yardage deficit after the first quarter. The Vols then took over and went on a 45-3 run, showing their potential. On deck are four crucial games that will determine the Vols' season: They host Florida, travel to Georgia and Texas A&M, and then host Alabama. That adds up to playing four ranked teams in four weeks.
Tennessee needs to keep quarterback Joshua Dobbs healthy and might limit his runs, which are a big part of the offense. The Appalachian State game will have the Vols more focused at the start of the game, but the second half should have them trying to build depth for the upcoming gauntlet.
The Bobcats are a well-coached squad, and while they have taken on two weak foes, their average of 563 yards per game is still impressive. Ohio outgained Kansas 359 to 21 yards at the half versus Kansas last week and will keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Ohio
Score: Tennessee 38, Ohio 17
No. 11 Texas Longhorns (-8) at California Golden Bears 10:30 p.m., FOX
Texas is my pick for most improved team in the country, and it has accumulated a spread record of 30-11-1 over the past four years. In 2014, TCU was my selection for most improved, and its offense went from 25.1 to 46.5 points per game. I expect a similar transformation from the Longhorns. Their two-headed quarterback system is the perfect combination. With top-notch passer Shane Buechele as starter and Tyrone Swoopes operating the "18-wheeler" package, the Longhorns have averaged 46 points per game in two games.
Last year, the Horns outgained Cal at home 650 to 548 yards, but their punter dropped a snap, and the Bears escaped with a 45-44 win. Last week, Cal outgained San Diego State 604 to 463 yards , but gave up touchdowns on a kick return and interception return. This won't be easy, but I will continue to ride with Texas, even on the road.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 45, California 34
No. 16 Georgia Bulldogs (-7) at Missouri Tigers 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Georgia had a great win over North Carolina, and then barely got past Nicholls last week. Missouri looked poor in its opener, but dominated a weak Eastern Michigan team at home last week.
Last year, Missouri was in the midst of a losing season, but went between the hedges and lost by only three against a Georgia team that finished with 10 wins. Missouri has a solid defense, and Georgia is still trying to figure out its starting quarterback.
My computer is calling for Missouri to outgain Georgia 379 to 363 and win outright by five. I still rate the Bulldogs the stronger team and will call for them to escape, but only by a point.
ATS pick: Missouri (+)
Score: Georgia 17, Missouri 16
Georgia State Panthers at No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-33.5) Noon, ESPN
I have been very impressed with the Badgers, who have played great on both offense and defense. They had a 21-14 edge in first downs versus LSU in Week 1. Last week, they took on an Akron squad that will contend for the MAC East title and throttled them with a 32-10 edge in first downs.
In 2014, Georgia State was a 1-11 team. Last year, the Panthers surprised some teams and got to a bowl, finishing 6-7. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle was the catalyst to that bowl bid, but he is gone, and the Panthers' quarterbacks have combined to complete just 50.7 percent of their passes. They were outgained by Ball State by 183 yards at home, and last week were outgained by 362 yards at Air Force. They got a touchdown on their opening drive versus Air Force, but had just three first downs the rest of the game.
After averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in 2015, the Badgers got it going versus Akron last week with 294 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Georgia State is allowing 395 yards per game on the ground and 5.8 yards per carry. With Michigan State on deck, this could be a potential look-ahead game for the Badgers, but they will dominate the line of scrimmage and roll to a big win. Last year, Wisconsin allowed a combined total of three points in its three nonconference home games.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 45, Georgia State 3
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Last week was a solid week, going 5-3 SU and 6-2 (75 percent) ATS. Here are my selections for this week's big games.
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Florida State vs. Louisville.
Note: All times Eastern on Saturday, September 17. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
No. 2 Florida State Seminoles (-2.5) at No. 10 Louisville Cardinals Noon, ABC
This will be the toughest road test of the year for Florida State. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has accounted for 13 touchdowns in just two games, but the Cardinals' first two opponents, Charlotte and Syracuse, rank among the weakest on defense in the FBS. Even though Florida State will be without star safety Derwin James, it still have one of the top defenses in the country. The Seminoles also have an exciting quarterback in redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who might be the better passer of the two signal callers in this contest. Both teams have 17 returning starters, and Florida State won this game by 20 at home last year. Now on the road, Florida State will prevail, but it will be closer.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 41, Louisville 34
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) at No. 19 Ole Miss Rebels 3:30 p.m., CBS
Ole Miss enters this home contest on a two-game winning streak against the Tide in what was otherwise a historically one-sided series. I was impressed with the Rebels' defensive line versus the Seminoles, and they have the quarterback edge with Chad Kelly. Jalen Hurts is mobile, like Francois, but I do not think he is as polished a passer.
The Tide will have to get the run game going first and then use Hurts' mobility and a great set of receivers versus a banged up Rebel secondary. The key to this game is the Alabama defensive line going up against a Rebel offensive line that is a bit of a question mark this year. Alabama has the best defense in the country and a powerful run game. The Tide lost here in 2014 despite leading 14-3 at halftime and outgaining the Rebels 396 to 327 yards.
Nick Saban's team plays its best ball in hostile environments, and since that road loss to Ole Miss, the Tide have faced four ranked teams in the opponents' stadium. Not only are they 4-0, but they've won those games by an average of 32.5 to 10.5.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Ole Miss 13
No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-2) at No. 14 Oklahoma Sooners 7:30 p.m., FOX
Over the summer, Las Vegas had the Sooners as a touchdown favorite; now they're a home 'dog. Oklahoma did not look great against Houston last week, when it couldn't stop quarterback Greg Ward on third down and allowed a 109-yard "kick six."
Ohio State is talented, but is the least experienced team in the country. It has looked great at home versus a couple of overmatched foes, outgaining Bowling Green and Tulsa by 381 yards per game. Last week the Buckeyes rolled the Golden Hurricane, but didn't score their first offensive touchdown until 9:42 was left in the third quarter.
Bob Stoops is 96-8 at home and has not been a home 'dog since 2000, when the Sooners upset No. 1 Nebraska.
With the Big 12 a major question mark for the playoffs, a win here by the Sooners would put them right back in the national title chase. My computer has Ohio State, but I will pick the more experienced home 'dog to play its best game of the year in what will be a totally different sort of test for a young Buckeye team.
ATS pick: Oklahoma (+)
Score: Oklahoma 30, Ohio State 24
No. 12 Michigan State Spartans at No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5) 7:30 p.m., NBC
Michigan State is right back where it wants to be: under the radar. When two analysts on the Big Ten Network recently gave their power ratings, neither had Michigan State among the top five teams of the Big Ten.
Last year, I had a disagreement with my computer on the Michigan State and Michigan game, and while the Spartans won on a blocked punt, they did have a 20-10 first-down edge. I disagree with my computer again on this particular matchup: It has Notre Dame winning by 17 with a 470-280 edge in yardage.
I like the Irish, and I think they could be favored in their last 11 games and make the playoffs. I also know how dangerous Michigan State is as a 'dog. In the last ten years, the Spartans have been an underdog 11 times and are 9-2 ATS in those games, with seven outright upsets. They could have one of head coach Mark Dantonio's best defenses, and quarterback Tyler O'Connor already led an upset of No. 2 Ohio State on the road last year.
ATS pick: Michigan State (+)
Score: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 20
Colorado Buffaloes at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines (-20.5) 3:30, Big Ten Network
Coach Mike MacIntyre inherited a rebuilding situation, but now in his fourth year, he has an upperclassmen-laden, bowl-caliber team. Colorado was just 2-5 on the road last year, but the Buffaloes were outscored by only 8.5 points per game away from Boulder. Both teams have opened with two weak foes, but the stats are similar. Colorado has won by an average of 50-7, outgaining Colorado State and Idaho State (combined 9-14 in 2015) by 427 yards per game. Michigan has won its games by an average of 57-9, outgaining Hawaii and UCF (combined 3-22 in 2015) by just 198 yards per game. This is an underrated Colorado team that will keep this one closer than expected.
ATS pick: Colorado (+)
Score: Michigan 31, Colorado 20
Ohio Bobcats at No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers (-28) 12:00 p.m., SEC Network
I had Tennessee last week and was a little worried when it was down 14-0 against Virginia Tech with a big yardage deficit after the first quarter. The Vols then took over and went on a 45-3 run, showing their potential. On deck are four crucial games that will determine the Vols' season: They host Florida, travel to Georgia and Texas A&M, and then host Alabama. That adds up to playing four ranked teams in four weeks.
Tennessee needs to keep quarterback Joshua Dobbs healthy and might limit his runs, which are a big part of the offense. The Appalachian State game will have the Vols more focused at the start of the game, but the second half should have them trying to build depth for the upcoming gauntlet.
The Bobcats are a well-coached squad, and while they have taken on two weak foes, their average of 563 yards per game is still impressive. Ohio outgained Kansas 359 to 21 yards at the half versus Kansas last week and will keep this closer than expected.
ATS pick: Ohio
Score: Tennessee 38, Ohio 17
No. 11 Texas Longhorns (-8) at California Golden Bears 10:30 p.m., FOX
Texas is my pick for most improved team in the country, and it has accumulated a spread record of 30-11-1 over the past four years. In 2014, TCU was my selection for most improved, and its offense went from 25.1 to 46.5 points per game. I expect a similar transformation from the Longhorns. Their two-headed quarterback system is the perfect combination. With top-notch passer Shane Buechele as starter and Tyrone Swoopes operating the "18-wheeler" package, the Longhorns have averaged 46 points per game in two games.
Last year, the Horns outgained Cal at home 650 to 548 yards, but their punter dropped a snap, and the Bears escaped with a 45-44 win. Last week, Cal outgained San Diego State 604 to 463 yards , but gave up touchdowns on a kick return and interception return. This won't be easy, but I will continue to ride with Texas, even on the road.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 45, California 34
No. 16 Georgia Bulldogs (-7) at Missouri Tigers 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Georgia had a great win over North Carolina, and then barely got past Nicholls last week. Missouri looked poor in its opener, but dominated a weak Eastern Michigan team at home last week.
Last year, Missouri was in the midst of a losing season, but went between the hedges and lost by only three against a Georgia team that finished with 10 wins. Missouri has a solid defense, and Georgia is still trying to figure out its starting quarterback.
My computer is calling for Missouri to outgain Georgia 379 to 363 and win outright by five. I still rate the Bulldogs the stronger team and will call for them to escape, but only by a point.
ATS pick: Missouri (+)
Score: Georgia 17, Missouri 16
Georgia State Panthers at No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers (-33.5) Noon, ESPN
I have been very impressed with the Badgers, who have played great on both offense and defense. They had a 21-14 edge in first downs versus LSU in Week 1. Last week, they took on an Akron squad that will contend for the MAC East title and throttled them with a 32-10 edge in first downs.
In 2014, Georgia State was a 1-11 team. Last year, the Panthers surprised some teams and got to a bowl, finishing 6-7. Quarterback Nick Arbuckle was the catalyst to that bowl bid, but he is gone, and the Panthers' quarterbacks have combined to complete just 50.7 percent of their passes. They were outgained by Ball State by 183 yards at home, and last week were outgained by 362 yards at Air Force. They got a touchdown on their opening drive versus Air Force, but had just three first downs the rest of the game.
After averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in 2015, the Badgers got it going versus Akron last week with 294 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Georgia State is allowing 395 yards per game on the ground and 5.8 yards per carry. With Michigan State on deck, this could be a potential look-ahead game for the Badgers, but they will dominate the line of scrimmage and roll to a big win. Last year, Wisconsin allowed a combined total of three points in its three nonconference home games.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 45, Georgia State 3
