E$PN IN$IDERS - Week 1 College Football

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 1 college football bets
Phil Steele
Aug 31, 2016

Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games and highlight a handful of other key matchups. Last year my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS). Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Alabama vs. USC, Oklahoma vs. Houston and Notre Dame vs. Texas.

Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.

Thursday

Charlotte 49ers (+39.5) at No. 19 Louisville Cardinals - 7p.m.
Louisville is coming off a great bowl game in which quarterback Lamar Jackson looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate, with 227 yards passing and another 226 yards rushing. Charlotte faced just one Power 5 team last year, losing 58-10 to Kentucky. The knee-jerk reaction is to call for a blowout, but I actually like the underdog here.

Charlotte has added Miami transfer Kevin Olsen and true freshman running back Robert Washington, who was offered the famed No. 44 jersey at Syracuse. They also return underrated wide receiver Austin Duke and overall are the most experienced team in the country. Louisville has bigger fish to fry on deck with its ACC opener next week, followed up by Florida State.

ATS pick: Charlotte
Score: Louisville 49, Charlotte 20


Saturday

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-11) vs No. 20 USC Trojans - 8 p.m., ABC
This is a great matchup between two of the most storied programs in NCAA history. USC is a very talented team with its running backs, receivers, offensive line and defensive backs all ranking in my top eight units in the country. The biggest question marks are on the defensive line and special teams. Alabama has the best defense in the country and the best set of receivers to go along with my No. 4 rated offensive line and No. 10 special teams unit.

Nick Saban is 4-0 in these marquee season openers, winning by 20 points per game. While I am a Clay Helton fan, Saban has a large edge in big-game experience and success. With the offenses being close, I will take the team with the better defense, special teams and coaching.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 35, USC 20


No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-10.5) at No. 15 Houston Cougars - Noon, ABC
Tom Herman is probably near the top of every athletic director's list of coaches to hire. He has a Heisman contender at quarterback in Greg Ward Jr and did a remarkable job in his first year taking a Houston team with just 11 returning starters from an 8-5 squad to 13-1 and No. 8 in the final poll. Their two biggest wins did come against teams that were not playing their best. Their win over Louisville was sandwiched between the Cardinals' matchups with Auburn and Clemson, and Florida State appeared unmotivated for the bowl game.

Oklahoma is a rare team that ranks in my top 10 in all four areas, which are offense, defense, special teams and coaching. Oklahoma fans should make up a decent portion of the crowd. Last year, Houston was plus-100 yards per game in differential versus the No. 112 schedule in terms of difficulty. Oklahoma was plus-166 yards per game versus the No. 20 schedule and has 13 returning starters.

ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 41, Houston 24


No. 5 LSU Tigers (-10) at Wisconsin Badgers (Lambeau Field) - 3:30 p.m., ABC
LSU has my No. 2 defense in the country. On offense the Tigers have running back Leonard Fournette, a pair of NFL-caliber wide receivers in Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural, and my No. 5 offensive line in the country. I expect quarterback Brandon Harris to be vastly improved. Wisconsin had an atypical year in 2015, rushing for just 150 yards per game and averaging 3.8 yards per carry, despite facing the No. 87 schedule overall. The Badgers were outgained by Alabama 502-268 in their only game against a team rated above No. 20 last year. They have just 12 returning starters and break in a new quarterback.

The clincher is that Wisconsin's super defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda, is now on the LSU sideline and has complete knowledge of the Badger players' strengths and weaknesses.

ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 30, Wisconsin 16


No. 16 UCLA Bruins (+3) at Texas A&M Aggies - 3:30 p.m., CBS
This is a key game for bragging rights between the SEC and the Pac 12. Last year, an unranked A&M destroyed No. 15 Arizona State 38-17. The Aggies have their best defense of the Sumlin era, with their defensive line and secondary among the best in the country. UCLA had a defense that was decimated by injuries last year, losing all of its top guys and allowed 402 yards per game. This year the Bruins not only have nine returning starters on defense, but also get back some of the injured players, including defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. The Bruins will have one of the most improved defenses in the country.

UCLA returns just four starters on offense, but one is quarterback Josh Rosen. Texas A&M has a young offensive line and a new quarterback. The total is 53.5, and that is based more on reputation and last year's results than on the reality of two teams.

Over/under pick: Under 53.5
Score: UCLA 20, Texas A&M 17


BYU Cougars (+1.5) at Arizona Wildcats (University of Phoenix Stadium) - 10:30 p.m., FS1
This game is being played at University of Phoenix Stadium, the home of the NFL's Arizona Cardinals. Both teams had quarterback battles, with the Cougars settling on Taysom Hill and with the Wildcats' Anu Solomon trying to hold onto his starting job over Brandon Dawkins.

Arizona still has a slight edge on offense, but BYU has a larger edge on defense and special teams. BYU has a decent advantage size wise with its offensive line versus the Wildcats' defensive line. This is almost a must-win for BYU, which has a rough schedule on deck, and this might be the most winnable of the first eight games.

ATS pick: BYU
Score: BYU 37, Arizona 31


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+41) at No. 7 Michigan Wolverines - Noon, FS1
Michigan was the most talked-about team in the summer, and Jim Harbaugh has a reputation for putting the hammer down. Defensive coordinator Don Brown will blitz on almost every play. Hawaii just played in Australia and made the long trip back to Hawaii ... and now it travels across the country to Michigan. This game is being played at 6 a.m. Hawaii time.

Everyone will be on Michigan here, and the line has climbed to 41. I will go against the grain and call for Hawaii to beat the blitz a few times. The biggest improvement a team makes is between Weeks 1 and 2, and Hawaii probably does not have a set body clock after playing in Australia.

ATS pick: Hawaii
Score: Michigan 47, Hawaii 13


Sunday

No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+4) - 7:30 p.m., ABC
Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 28-11-1 the last three years, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets, and often this year.

The Longhorns will be vastly improved on both sides of the ball, and they will be fully motivated after last year's embarrassing 38-3 loss in South Bend. Notre Dame has just eight returning starters and is No. 121 in my experience rankings, and this is by far Charlie Strong's most talented and experienced team.

ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 30, Notre Dame 28

 

[NYGiants25]

Ultimate 2016 college football betting guide
Phil Steele & Will Harris
Aug 31, 2016

With the 2016 college football season kicking off Thursday night, fans and sportsbooks are buzzing with excitement. Beyond playoff favorites such as Ohio State, where do the best value bets lie? Below is our 2016 college football betting guide, covering the best values among teams to win the College Football Playoff, season win totals, conference titles, games of the year, overvalued and undervalued teams and Heisman Trophy contenders. If you're looking to wager on college football this season, this is the primer you need to read.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.


Best title bets

Steele
Florida State Seminoles (7-1): I have had a rule throughout the preseason that I will not take a team with odds less than 10-1 to win the national title, but I will go against that rule for one team ... and that team is Florida State. There is not great value in picking a team at 7-1 odds, but they are my pick to win the national title so I have to list them here.

Oklahoma Sooners (10-1): The Sooners haven't finished above No. 15 in the rankings the past four times they've been a top-five preseason team and have, in fact, finished unranked twice in that span. All of the other factors point to the Sooners actually having the best shot at making the playoff. Their offense is loaded with QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. They have a top-10 offense, defense and special teams, will be favored in all 12 games and do not have to win a conference title game. I will take any of the four playoff teams at 10-1 odds.

TCU Horned Frogs (30-1): I mentioned that Oklahoma has the clearest path to the playoff, and part of the reason is that they play in the Big 12, which does not have any other top-10 teams. However, the Sooners' toughest test is in Fort Worth on Oct. 1. TCU is flying under the radar and has the Big 12's best defense. If the Frogs win that game at home, their path becomes almost as clear as the Sooners'.

Washington Huskies (30-1): The Huskies are my No. 1 surprise team (non-top-10 team that I think can win the title) this season. They could have the best defense in the Pac-12, and last year had true freshmen at QB and RB and were without their playmaker John Ross (injured). All three are back; they're my pick to win the Pac-12.

Iowa Hawkeyes (80-1): The Hawkeyes weren't a dominant team last year, but they went 12-0 and led Michigan State late, basically being one play from the playoff. This year they get all the tough opponents at home with their conference road games against teams that went a combined 10-30 in Big Ten play last season. They have eight starters back on defense including Jim Thorpe Award Winner Desmond King and C.J. Beathard is currently the No. 5 quarterback for the the NFL draft. They could be favored in all 12 games and are 80-1? They were actually at 100-1 earlier this summer when I picked them as a play-on team.

Harris
When we last wrote about national title odds back in January, it was Michigan and LSU at 15-1 that looked like the pick of the litter. Now both have crashed to 8-1, but Michigan still has the most appeal among the favorites. The offensive line, well-recruited but underdeveloped during the Brady Hoke era, is in full bloom and leads a powerful offense that will blow away a 2015 résumé that saw this bunch rank just 11th in the Big Ten in rushing. Superstars adorn every level of the defense -- that includes the coordinator's chair, from which the blitz-happy Don Brown will turn versatile "linebacker" Jabrill Peppers into a household name.

Our best play outside the favorites back in January was Washington at 40-1. That's now 30-1, but there's no reason to tamp down the enthusiasm for the Huskies. The league's best defense, special teams and coaching staff are complemented by a veteran offensive line and star triplets at the skill positions.

Bob Stoops, Brian Kelly, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer (twice) all posted unbeaten or one-loss seasons in their second or third year. Fellow elites Jim Harbaugh and Chris Petersen could certainly follow suit.


Best season win total bets

Steele
Last year in this article I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet" (LSU). There were three over wins in Miami (FL) over 5.5 (won 8 games), San Diego State over 7.5 (won 9) and Bowling Green over 5.5 (won 10). There were two under wins in Colorado State under 7.5 (won 7) and Buffalo under 5.5 (won 5). The losses were Penn State over 7.5 (won 7) and USC over 8.5 (won 8).

Odds from South Point

Cincinnati Bearcats (over 7.5)
Despite myriad injuries last year the Bearcats won seven games last year. They were minus-19 in turnovers, which they should improve upon. Despite their 4-4 mark in the American Conference, they were plus-167 yards per game, which was a league best. They have eight starters back on defense and two quarterbacks with starting experience, are 26-5 at home the past five years and have seven home games. Plus, Cincinnati faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last year. Six of my nine sets of power ratings call for a double-digit win season.

Purdue Boilermakers (under 4.5)
Purdue is the most experienced team in the Big Ten and has 16 returning starters. There is no doubt this is the best team that coach Darrell Hazell has put on the field in his four years at Purdue, during which they are just 2-22 in Big Ten play. Not only do they have just four Big Ten home games (five on road), those home games are versus Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. The most winnable Big Ten games are all on the road. The Boilermakers have been outgained by an average of 153 yards per game in Big Ten play under Hazell, so they have some ground to make up and must win five games to beat me here.

TCU Horned Frogs (over 8.5)
Just two years ago TCU was coming off a four-win season and I had them as my No. 1 most improved team and No. 4 surprise team (national title contender) in the country; they just missed making the first-ever playoff. The Frogs are now coming off 12- and 11-win seasons, so this win total of eight is low for me. TCU has been picked as low as fifth or sixth in the Big 12 in some preseason magazines, but I have them second. While they have just three returning starters on offense, I like quarterback Kenny Hill and the replacements at wide receiver. On defense they have eight starters back and I rate them top 20 on both sides of the ball. They face only my 48th-toughest schedule and that road trip to Baylor doesn't seem as daunting as it did two months ago. I have them favored in most games and don't see them as more than a 3-point 'dog in any game this year.

San Diego State Aztecs (over 9) at Westgate
On the surface this looks like a tough number as San Diego State has won just seven, seven and nine games the past three years. On offense they have RB Donnel Pumphrey back and my computer projects the Aztecs to average 240 rushing yards per game this year. They have a top-15 defense, with seven starters back. You can win a lot of games with a solid running game and defense, and I don't have them as a 'dog in a single game this year (couple of toss-ups). I had the Aztecs on this list last year and they look like an even stronger squad this season.

Harris

Utah Utes, over 7.5 wins (-110)
Utah's at-a-glance profile doesn't look like much. In five years of Pac-12 play, the Utes are 20-25 and have finished fifth in a six-team division more often than not. This year's squad is replacing its top two passers and rushers, top three receivers, defensive coordinator, four of the top five tacklers and the best punter in Pac-12 history. But a closer look at the entire scholarship roster 1 through 85 shows a team that's nothing like the one that joined the league in 2011. Utah had Pac-12-caliber players along both lines of scrimmage out of the gate, but lagged far behind in perimeter athletes.

Since joining the league, the program has recruited previously unobtainable talent by the handful, and the rest of the roster has now caught up. Community college transfer Troy Williams will be an upgrade at quarterback and the OL/DL combo might be the league's stoutest. This edition has a great chance to be Kyle Whittingham's best team yet and win the South Division.

Wisconsin Badgers, under 7.5 wins (-160)
From last year's betting guide: "On the surface, new coach Paul Chryst seems a natural fit in Madison, but while he'll field some good teams his tenure will eventually be considered a disappointment. Recruiting will not be what it was under Bret Bielema, Chryst's tendency to lose the close games will follow him from Pitt, and the real decline will begin when the program loses ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to a head coaching job or a school willing to pay more than Wisconsin. This year there will be plenty of wins, but an ambitious total of 9.5 leaves no margin for error for "over" backers."

All of that still applies. The Badgers finished the regular season 9-3, then ran their record in one-score games to 3-2 on the year with a 10th win in the Holiday Bowl. That was an improvement over Chryst's 4-10 pace from Pitt, but this year's issue might be finding a close game to get into. Last year's schedule was notably soft; this year's is brutal, with the top three East powers immediately following the nonconference slate, then what may well be the top three in the West up next.

Wisconsin could be staring at a losing record before a more manageable November even arrives. This is a program in gradual decline as the era of Barry Alvarez and the coaches he has mentored draws nearer its end. Fortunately, what Alvarez built will long outlive him, and now even in down periods there's a much higher floor in Madison than ever before.

UNLV Rebels over, 5.5 wins (+140)
UNLV football has had just one winning season since 2000, but second-year coach Tony Sanchez has this program on the rise. Institutional commitment is at an all-time high at UNLV following the hiring of the superstar high school boss, who was 85-5 at local power Bishop Gorman. There, Sanchez was involved in facility-building and logistics on a scale rarely seen at the high school level, and at UNLV he already has made an impact on the Rebels' recruiting, facilities, fundraising, marketing, academic performance and support resources. Just about every area of the program has been improved, and the on-field results will follow quickly.

South Carolina Gamecocks and Maryland Terrapins, under 5 wins (-105)
Two of the worst power conference teams are not on the Westgate board, but are trading at five wins at offshore heavyweights like 5Dimes and Heritage. Each has both a first-year coach and roster that's overmatched by league peers. And each is undergoing a particularly difficult scheme change on one side of the ball and has unsettled leadership on the other. South Carolina has a pretty sweet stadium and Maryland has a ridiculously overqualified special teams coach, but otherwise neither has much reason for optimism the next few years.


Conference title bets
Harris
At this point in the offseason, the futures market has seen enough action to slash many prices from the early numbers and just doesn't have much left to offer. Of the favorites, Clemson at 7-5 has the clearest path to a conference title. This is an outfit with fantastic intangibles, no glaring weaknesses and the best player in the country running the show. With fewer legitimate challengers in the ACC, the Tigers get the nod over Michigan (also 7-5) or Washington (5-2).


Best Games of the Year bets

Steele
The Golden Nugget has posted lines on 100 games for the upcoming season from Sept. 10 through Dec. 10. Below are my five best plays.

Army Black Nights (+11.5) at Navy Midshipmen (Dec. 10)
Army has now lost an amazing 14 in a row in this series, but has come close in four of the past five meetings. Navy has just one win by more than a touchdown in the past five years, with wins by just six, four, seven and four points. Army has more first downs than Navy (76-66) in those four close losses. Last year Army had a 16-11 first down edge, and led the game 17-14 at the half. Navy needed a 50-yard touchdown pass with five minutes and 51 seconds left to pull out a four-point win. This year Army has an unusually high -- for a service academy -- 16 returning starters and ranks No. 35 in my experience chart. Navy has just six returning starters and is No. 127 in my experience chart. I believe Army has a great shot at winning this game outright, and my personal number was Navy -3. Here they are getting over a touchdown more than they should and of these five early plays, this is my favorite one.

Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5) at Arizona Wildcats (Nov. 25)
My Power Poll has Arizona State No. 37 and Arizona No. 52, so Arizona State is the stronger team and is getting more than a field goal. Last year Arizona finished 7-6 and Arizona State was just 6-7, but in this matchup the Sun Devils rolled to a 31-10 halftime lead and Arizona got a garbage touchdown with 32 seconds left to "only" lose 52-37. Arizona State has won three of the past four overall, and two of the past three in Tucson. The 'dog is 12-5-1 ATS in this rivalry. I will take the rivalry 'dog with the better defense and better team overall getting over a field goal.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) vs. Michigan Wolverines (Nov. 12)
Iowa was fortunate to go 12-0 last year and wasn't as dominant as its record. I feel this year's Iowa team is stronger overall, with defensive tackles Nathan Bazata and Jaleel Johnson, middle linebacker Josey Jewell and cornerback Desmond King all standouts on defense. Quarterback C.J. Beathard was banged up during Week 3 last year and played at less than 100 percent. Michigan has my No. 5-rated defense and a top-notch offense, but is just 2-5 ATS as an away favorite under Jim Harbaugh. The clincher is Iowa is 12-3 outright in its past 15 home games and their largest loss in that span is by just three points at home -- and here the Hawkeyes are, getting more than a field goal at home.

Texas Longhorns (+8.5) vs. Oklahoma State (Oct. 1)
My No. 1 most improved team is now 46-21-1 ATS during the season the past five years, so I always look for the optimal games to play on that team. Texas is my No. 1 most improved team this year and I rate Texas No. 24 in my Power Poll, while Oklahoma State is No. 34. Texas is getting over a touchdown and has, in my mind, the stronger team. If you are concerned about the site, here's a fact that should put you at ease. The visitor has won the past seven in a row in the series and won those outright by an average of 16 points per game!

Harris
Michigan State Spartans (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (Sept. 24)
Early numbers aren't giving defending Big Ten champ Michigan State much love. It's true the Spartans are replacing the best quarterback in school history, his two top targets and a handful of NFL players along the lines of scrimmage. But even if this program winds up behind Michigan and/or Ohio State in the rugged Big Ten East, the product will still be among the nation's best. The Spartans are deep enough to reload in the trenches and come into this year with solid intangibles and few dire question marks.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1) vs. Oregon Ducks (Sept. 17)
The oddsmakers grow more and more circumspect about this team as it becomes increasingly obvious that the Mark Helfrich regime won't match the achievements of the Chip Kelly era. But near-pick 'em matchups with Nebraska, Washington and Utah show there's still value to be had fading this crew. Lincoln is a tough first road date for breaking in a new quarterback, and former Oregon State boss Mike Riley certainly gives his team the edge of familiarity. Every passer Riley and offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf tutored at Oregon State made major improvement from his first year starting to his second, and Tommy Armstrong will not be a sudden exception. The Huskers are the FPI favorite in the Big Ten West, and we agree.

Vanderbilt Commodores (+14.5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (Nov. 26)

Championship-level success in this sport requires not only talented players and coaches, but full team buy-in and belief, and -- beyond the locker room -- the alignment of everyone in the organization. For all his recruiting and roster-building success, we're not sold that Butch Jones has cemented the big-picture necessities. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin are leaders to build around, but meeting this year's lofty expectations will require everyone in the boat. We are very confident this all ends in disappointment, but still uncertain what the right spots will be. An early favorite is the regular-season finale at improved Vanderbilt, where the Vols will likely either be peeking ahead to Atlanta or distraught at their failure to get there.


Best Heisman bets

Steele
My pick to win the Heisman Trophy is Deshaun Watson of Clemson, but he is also the favorite at 9-2, so there's not a lot of value there. I will give you my dark horses to win.

Note: Only players who are at least 10-1 are considered.

Dalvin Cook, Florida State Seminoles (10-1)

The Heisman is an award for the best player in college football, but in most cases he must play for a team that is among the best. Cook plays for Florida State, and the Seminoles host Clemson this year on Oct. 29. A win in that head-to-head meeting should put him ahead of Watson in the race. When I talked to coach Jimbo Fisher this spring, he told me Cook was one of the hardest workers on the team. He averaged 7.4 yards per carry and rushed for 1,691 yards, adding 244 receiving yards. Florida State has a veteran offensive line (74 career starts), which is a nice group to run behind.

Jalen Hurd, Tennessee Volunteers (50-1)

Tennessee could be favored in every game this season, except against Alabama. The Vols get the Tide at home, led in Tuscaloosa last year with three minutes left and have the much more experienced team. Hurd will remind you of last year's Heisman winner, Derrick Henry, as he is 6-foot-4, 240 pounds and rushed for 1,288 yards behind an average offensive line. The line goes from two returning starters last year to four this year, and should open bigger holes for him.

Damien Harris, Alabama Crimson Tide (200-1)
If you want to pick a player who is not on the board of odds to win the Heisman, you have to ask what the odds are. I asked, and the odds on Alabama running back Harris are 200-1. He was the No. 2 running back out of the spring behind Bo Scarbrough, who is on the odds list at 25-1 right now. I think that Harris will eventually win the job, and that makes him a real dark horse. Alabama is No. 1 in my Power Poll talent-wise this year, and the feature Tide running back is always a threat to win it all.

Harris
Our field of study entails programs, teams, coaches and players, not polls and voters, so we claim no expertise whatsoever in predicting individual awards, playoff berths and other stuff decided not on the field but at the ballot box. But somehow we got lucky and nailed Derrick Henry winning the Heisman at 25-1 last year, so we've been invited to follow up with another shot at it.

The favorite is so total-package awesome that it's hard not to pick Deshaun Watson, even at a measly 9-2. But chalk isn't the way to go in Heisman futures, so we'll take do-everything Houston pivot Greg Ward Jr. at 50-1, who might have to put up really obnoxious numbers this year to make up for a very leaky pass defense that will keep him supplied with both possessions and the need to do something with them.


Which teams are overvalued and which are undervalued?
Steele
To determine this category I used the website preseason.stassen.com, which lists where all the magazines and preseason websites picked teams for this year. I will take a look at the teams where my magazine differed the most from the rest of the previews.

Overvalued
Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats have been picked third in the Pac-12 South by two very respected sources in USA Today and ESPN The Magazine. I project them fifth in the South behind UCLA, USC, Utah and Arizona State.

West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers had a big bowl game and have been picked fourth in the Big 12 by ESPN The Magazine and fifth by Athlon and Lindy's. I have them tied for seventh in the Big 12, which is considerably lower.

Undervalued
TCU Horned Frogs: TCU is one of my top plays for odds to win the national title, and I have them picked second in the Big 12. The Frogs have been picked as low as sixth in the Big 12 by other magazines and have an average of about fourth in the conference.

Kansas State Wildcats: I learned my lesson long ago with crafty head coach Bill Snyder. I look at wherever my computer projects them to finish and pick them a couple of spots higher. Last year he brought in only one juco player, but this year has added his usual solid number of jucos. Kansas State is generally picked eighth or ninth in the Big 12, but I have them sixth, and that makes them underrated.

Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns have disappointed a large number of folks their first two years with Charlie Strong, having a combined record of 11-14. This year I have the Horns my No. 1 most improved team in the country, and feel they could be a contender in the Big 12. They are generally picked from fifth to eighth place by the other guys.

Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats are my surprise pick to win their division in the American this year. They had the best yards per game in league play, but had myriad things go wrong last year. After being the pick to win the American last year, they are now picked third or fourth by most and will be a bounce-back team.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting this, much appreciated.

Wish I had Steele's optimism. Cautiously so here in Austin.

 

[NYGiants25]

Oregon, Tennessee among college football teams to fade
Will Harris
Aug 30, 2016

We'll normally lead this space with some adjustments and takeaways from the previous week in college football, but let's kick things off with the long view. Being ever-flexible, open-minded and willing to adjust is key, but entering the season every handicapper should have a rough idea of where the money might come from during the year. Ask yourself: Which programs do you know best? About which teams will you have the most useful ongoing information? Where is your assessment more accurate than the prevailing narrative?

We share our own reads on four overvalued teams, including Oregon and Tennessee, we expect to profit from attacking this season, along with Week 1 games to watch and big line moves in the Week 1 and futures markets.

Four teams to fade

Oregon Ducks
The Ducks allowed 488 yards and nearly 38 points per Pac-12 game last year, ranking in the league's bottom three in both scoring and total defense. This year's stop unit loses its four most productive players and will be even worse.

The offense must replace playcaller Scott Frost and quarterback Vernon Adams along with five other players who made NFL camps. Oregon has been in steady decline since the moment Chip Kelly left, but Marcus Mariota masked a lot of deficiencies and the collapse only began to show in the loss column last year. This year six or seven wins and a fourth-place finish in the loaded North Division might be the ceiling, and I believe the Ducks will have their first losing ATS seasons since 2002.

Tennessee Volunteers
We've written a lot about bubble-burst teams over the years, and this year's top candidate is a Tennessee team that hasn't faced top-10 expectations since the Phil Fulmer era. Butch Jones has recruited well and built this roster, but talent alone doesn't win championships. We like the attitude and work ethic of the first string, and the top leaders are solid, but the buy-in to Jones' culture is not sufficiently widespread throughout the entire roster to turn this from a talented group of individuals into a tight-knit team that plays complementary situational football with the necessary attention to detail. The requisite belief, confidence and mental toughness required to shake off adversity and keep going strong in the face of a loss or two are also lacking.

If and when the time comes when the 2016 Vols can no longer meet their lofty expectations, don't expect the same strong finish against the weak November portion of the schedule that the previous two Tennessee editions have managed. Once the serious prizes are out of reach, look for a bubble-burst collapse down the stretch, and send it in hard against this bunch the rest of the way.

Maryland Terrapins
We've noticed the media discussing Maryland and Rutgers in tandem a lot this offseason, and it makes sense. The Big Ten's latest pair of expansion teams each managed a 7-5 regular season record in a respectable first-year showing in 2014, then collapsed to a 1-7 conference mark last season. Both head coaches were fired, and replaced by defensive coordinators from league bluebloods Michigan and Ohio State. Even the first two games in the series as new Big Ten rivals were strikingly similar. Rutgers overcame a 25-point deficit to win a 41-38 barnburner in 2014, then blew a 21-point lead in a 46-41 loss last year. Most predictions have these two as peers, vying for the Big Ten East cellar, but Maryland looks by far the weaker team.

The Terps are undergoing a difficult scheme change on offense, and the defense -- 11th in the league in points and yards per game last year -- figures to take a step back with the coaching change and departure of six of its top nine performers.

South Carolina Gamecocks
Like Maryland, South Carolina will challenge Kansas for the title of "worst Power 5 conference team." Recruiting always tails off near the end of an aging coach's tenure, and Steve Spurrier was no exception. The talent he left Will Muschamp doesn't measure up to the steady stream of blue-chippers Spurrier brought to Columbia in the middle of his time there. A weak staff and undertalented roster are a bad combination for hopes of an instant rebuild at a historically downtrodden program.


Games of interest, Week 1

Texas A&M Aggies (-3) vs. UCLA Bruins
An embattled coach hosts one who soon will be. Last year Texas A&M opened the season with a competitively priced game against a Pac-12 contender. The result was a dominating, nine-sack performance by the Aggies' talented defensive front in a 38-17 whipping of Arizona State. That unit returns intact, and there's no reason to think that a good-but-not-great UCLA offensive line will fare any better. That's especially true given that UCLA -- after losing offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone to none other than A&M -- is moving to more of an NFL-style offense that will have super soph quarterback Josh Rosen mostly under center and taking lots of five- and seven-step drops in the passing game. With the media's pick to win the Pac-12 South taking points from a perceived middle-of-the-pack SEC squad, no other Week 1 game has so much at stake in terms of a conference's reputation.

LSU Tigers (-10) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (in Green Bay)
Coordinator intrigue, part two. Most LSU observers are fixated on whether the Tigers can unveil an improved passing game, but it's the reincarnation of the once-proud defense that Kevin Steele weakened last year that will determine whether LSU is a national contender come late November. The man tasked with the repairs is 39-year old rising star Dave Aranda, who spent the past three seasons coordinating top-10 defenses at Wisconsin, first under mentor Gary Andersen and then last year in Paul Chryst's debut season.

We're as down on the current Wisconsin regime as we are on UCLA's, and in last year's Insider betting guide noted that "... the real decline will begin when the program loses ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to a head coaching job or a school willing to pay more than Wisconsin."

LSU is just the beginning of a really tough schedule for the Badgers, and while we're not just totally pumped about the opportunity to lay double digits, we are among those guilty of more or less assuming that the Tigers will win this one. The intrigue will be in whether this would-be national contender granted a Week 1 spotlight flexes its muscles just with the known commodity of its awesome running game, or whether Les Miles' squad can muster significantly improved play from the quarterback and/or defense.

Our guess is that the Tigers will flash all of it, showing off the No. 1 reason that they are a national contender this year: stud coordinators on both sides of the ball.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) vs. USC Trojans (in Dallas)
Alabama was sporting a new starting quarterback in each of the past two years, but this season there are more position groups whose experience and leadership is still iffy. Most of the vets on offense play away from the ball, and the green up-the-middle trio of center, quarterback and tailback has us wondering if 30-plus points is too optimistic out of the gate for an offense forced to find its identity as it goes. The Trojans have a new quarterback as well, and the defensive progress outshone that of the offense this camp. There are too many unknowns for us to take a side here (though an upset would be less surprising than a blowout) but the total of 54 seems awfully high for a game in which two extremely talented and well-coached defenses get to take on clock-grinding offenses that are breaking in new signal-callers.


Line moves, futures odds report
With the Westgate unveiling Week 1 numbers all the way back on June 5, several lines have seen significant movement.

Indiana was -7.5 at home versus Florida International last September and beat the Panthers 36-22. This year the Hoosiers are on the road and have been bet up to -9 from an opener of -4.5.

Minnesota has moved from -9 to -13 at home against Oregon State in one of only two games pitting Power 5 conference teams on opening Thursday.

A healthier UTEP team that nearly made a bowl last year despite 15 season-ending injuries opened at just -4 at home against rival New Mexico State, but now that the underdog has suffered injuries of its own to key offensive stars in camp, the Miners sit at -9.5.

Bettors have shown strong faith in Arkansas at home versus rebuilding Louisiana Tech (-20 to -26.5) and also in a loaded Washington team that's big chalk against Rutgers (-22.5 to -26.5).

Another heavy favorite, Mississippi State, has fallen from -33 at opening all the way to -28 in its home opener versus South Alabama.

The Westgate futures board listed 35 teams at 100-1 or lower to win the national title back in January of this year. Only nine remain at their exact original price, yet there hasn't really been that much movement overall.

Alabama remains the favorite at 6-1, followed by Clemson/Florida State at 7-1 and Michigan/LSU/Ohio State at 8-1.

Florida State, LSU and Michigan all opened at 15-1 and represent the biggest movers among the favorites.

The only other teams that have seen enough action to reduce their price significantly from January until now are Southern Cal (60-1 to 30-1) and Iowa (100-1 to 60-1). Washington, Tennessee, Houston, Nebraska and Miami have all seen slight drops.

Most others have seen prices lengthen slightly, as oddsmakers will typically do to encourage action when they haven't seen any large or sharp wagers on a proposition.

UCLA (30-1 to 60-1), Auburn (30-1 to 80-1) and Arizona State (100-1 to 500-1) are three teams the oddsmakers had notably overrated in January compared with their current view. Michigan State and Ole Miss opened at 20-1 and now sit at 40-1.

And Baylor (50-1) saw a big adjustment, as the opening price of 12-1 was posted long before the scandal that led to the replacement of Art Briles with Jim Grobe.


Chalk bits
Nobody devours cupcakes like Bobby Petrino. He's 14-6 ATS as a head coach when laying at least four touchdowns, and his Cardinals are giving 39.5 to outclassed FBS sophomore program Charlotte.

Pat Fitzgerald succeeded the late Randy Walker as head coach at Northwestern when the latter suffered a fatal heart attack two months before the 2006 season opener at Miami, Ohio. Fitzgerald's first game at Northwestern was a 21-3 victory over the Redhawks in that emotional tribute to Walker, who was the head coach at Miami for nine years before leaving to take the Northwestern job after the 1999 season. Fitzgerald has led the Wildcats against seven MAC teams since that triumph and is 0-7 ATS. He'll get a crack at snapping that streak.

Since returning to the Kansas State sideline in 2009, Bill Snyder has been an underdog of at least 13 points 11 times. He's 9-2 ATS in those matchups, and has another one on tap at Stanford Friday night.

The rivalry billed as the Rocky Mountain Showdown has had its share of great plays, streaks, comebacks and nearly everything else, but one thing we haven't seen much of is shootouts. Colorado and Colorado State have contested the Centennial Cup 87 times, but only twice has the loser topped four touchdowns. The game has gone under the total eight of the past 10 years. The current number of 57 is, amazingly, the highest total in the history of the series.

Temple is a 16-point favorite over Army this week, and has dominated this series lately, winning and covering the past six meetings with the Cadets, from 2008-2013, while averaging more than 40 points per game. The Owls were actually underdogs to Army in each of the past two matchups, but won that pair by a combined 50 points.

Arkansas State gets a third shot at Toledo, this time in Jonesboro. The Rockets took a 63-44 decision in the GoDaddy Bowl to close the 2014 season, then won last year's late September rematch at home 37-7. Toledo was a short favorite both times, but is now getting four points despite outrushing the Red Wolves 554-51 in the first two meetings and returning the five backs responsible for 543 of those yards.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 28-11-1 the last three years, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets, and often this year.

That ATS # seemed way off, and according to Covers it is: 17-21 not 28-11-1.

Quite a discrepancy.

 

[KJ]

haha

 

[dilaudid8]

NYG my man bol this week

 

[RetroVK]

[/COLOR]That ATS # seemed way off, and according to Covers it is: 17-21 not 28-11-1.

Quite a discrepancy.

I have probably lost on them that many times all by myself over that span.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Re-reading....I think Steele is saying his "most improved team(s)" at the beginning of the season in those 3 seasons posted a combined ATS record of 28-11-1.

Makes more sense.

 

[D-Woww]

damn steele has that usc/bama game going over. i think he overshot both teams output.

 

[NYGiants25]

Fallica and Coughlin's best Week 1 CFB bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin
9/1/2016

After an impressive 2015 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay are back. Every week during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games and, as a bonus, give one pick apiece free of charge.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 53-40-3 ATS (55.2 percent)
Coughlin: 38-29-3 ATS (54.3 percent)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS) and total picks are in bold. Odds are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5) vs. Houston Cougars Over/under: 68
Fallica: The Football Power Index sees a ton of value here, expecting a 19-point win for Oklahoma. That is a sizable difference from the Vegas line, and I have to simply trust our power ratings here. I also think all of the intangibles favor OU here. With talk of past preseason disappointments, along with hearing about Houston both potentially joining the Big 12 and being ready for a stage like this, Houston has become a trendy College Football Playoff pick.

Do you think Bob Stoops and his staff have been drilling those things into the minds of the Oklahoma players? Yeah, I do too. Take into account that the Sooners have Ohio State and a trip to TCU within the first four games of the year, and it's easy to see how the Cougars will have Oklahoma's full attention. In looking back at last year, Houston kind of had a perfect storm: It caught Louisville early in the year when the Cards' QB situation was a mess, it had a couple of home comeback wins and held a huge emotional edge over Florida State in their bowl game.

The Cougars lost a larger number of key contributors than one may realize. I'd be surprised if this was close in the fourth quarter.

ATS pick: Oklahoma 38, Houston 20 (Confidence 8/10)

Coughlin: This is my favorite matchup of experienced quarterbacks in the opening weekend. Not to put any more pressure on Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr., but no other team in the country has more to lose than Houston. If it falls to the Sooners, they won't get talked about until November. I'm really interested to see the development of Sooners QB Baker Mayfield without his No. 1 target, Sterling Shepard, and how well he adapts without Shepard is the biggest determining factor in whether or not Oklahoma has a successful season.

We know how good Sooners RB Samaje Perine is, as he needs only 1,054 rushing yards to become No. 1 on the all-time Oklahoma rushing list; he starts the season in 10th. Just think about some of the names on that list. After the season Houston had last year, you can bet that Tom Herman's crew has the full attention of Mike and Bob Stoops too. Houston led the country in takeaways, and they are going to have to create numerous turnovers to hang around in this game. I see both offenses having big days and see a bunch of points being scored. Take the over.

Pick: Oklahoma 49, Houston 24 (over the total of 68 points)


UCLA Bruins (+3) at Texas A&M Aggies
Fallica: I think the UCLA defense has a chance to be very good this season, and the Bruins have a huge edge in the QB position in this matchup. The only big question is whether or not the UCLA offensive line can hold its own against Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. I hear Josh Rosen loves the new offensive scheme -- note that former offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone is now at Texas A&M -- and I don't think there will be a drop-off at all at the RB position with Texas native Soso Jamabo replacing Paul Perkins.

The last time we saw Trevor Knight, he was 5-of-16 with an interception as the Sooners nearly coughed up a huge lead last year vs TCU, when Baker Mayfield was sidelined with a concussion. As big as the perception that Kyle Field is a big home field advantage is, keep in mind that the Aggies are 1-6 there vs. ranked opponents under Kevin Sumlin. I think the Bruins go into College Station, win and set themselves up for a run at the College Football Playoff.

ATS pick: UCLA 28, Texas A&M 24 (Confidence 8/10)

Coughlin: My partner, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, on the Behind The Bets: The College Years podcast last week, brought up the question of who among all of the SEC Coaches is under the most pressure in Week 1. Many have answered with Les Miles, which I can't argue with, but I'd have to say it's Aggies' head coach Kevin Sumlin. With that feeling, I see A&M coming out with a huge effort at home in front of one of the best home crowds in the country. To hear defensive coordinator John Chavis this past week at his press conference saying, "We've got the best pair of DEs in the country ... wouldn't trade them for anyone else," makes me think that that he feels more confident in this defense than he did last year.

That means something to me because I think "Chief" is the best at what he does in the country. The combination of defensive pressure and the life of the 12th man, it seems like it'll be too much for Sophomore QB Josh Rosen. The trend of coaches facing the school they left in Week 1 continues with this game, as Aggies offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone faces the Bruins. I see a big day for the A&M wide receivers -- gig 'em and lay the 3 points.

ATS pick: Texas A&M 31, UCLA 23


USC Trojans (+11.5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Fallica: I am well aware of the success that Nick Saban has had at Alabama in season openers -- for those who aren't, he's 9-0, winning each of them by double figures (by an average margin of victory of 27.3 PPG). So why am I so hesitant now to lay the 11.5? I guess the uncertainty at QB for the Tide has me a little concerned, at least right off the bat. If you look back at 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2015 -- the four previous times the Tide started with a first-year QB under Saban -- those QBs combined for three TDs and six INTs, along with six total sacks. While they went on to have a great season each time, none of those teams were great off the bat. Three of those season openers were against Power 5 teams, and two of them were a pair of 10-point wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia, to go along with the 18-point win over Wisconsin last year.

I think the Crimson Tide will play it fairly safe on offense and USC has enough skill on both sides of the ball, despite having a new starter of its own, to hang around. The FPI calls for Alabama by five, so it too thinks this one could be closer than most might think.

ATS pick: Alabama 31, USC 21 (Confidence 6/10)


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5) vs. Texas Longhorns Over/under: 60
Coughlin: Notre Dame is playing a true road game in a season opener for the first time since 2006 -- something only the Irish could pull off. Maybe it's also the reason they haven't won a national title outright since 1989. The Fighting Irish are one of five teams in the country to return two QBs that beat a Power 5 team last year. Head coach Brian Kelly has said Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer will both play in this game, which I love, and here's why; both guys throw the ball accurately, both guys have great field presence and awareness and both guys have playmaking ability, if things break down. There also isn't a better coach to handle multiple QBs, at least to me, than Brian Kelly. I don't think this will be an issue with the team chemistry either, because when both guys are out there, they will be trying to be better than the other guys and, last I checked, athletes are best when they are competing... and not transferring.

With all that said, they are going to get all they can handle from a hungry and energized Longhorn squad. I see Texas having some issues with their QB play and see the edge Notre Dame has at the position as the difference in a low-scoring game. Take the under.

The pick: Notre Dame 20, Texas 13 (under the total of 60 points)


North Carolina Tar Heels (+3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Fallica: I like the Tar Heels in this game. Yes, Nick Chubb is ready to go, but the Georgia QB situation scares me. We kind of know what we have with Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey, so will Jacob Eason be ready to play and match UNC point-for-point in his first college game? The Bulldogs also have some concerns on the front seven and that's not good, as UNC possesses one of the more underrated backs in the nation in Elijah Hood, a deep WR corps and QB Mitch Trubisky.

I know UNC couldn't stop Baylor's running game in the bowl game last year, but I'm willing to think the Tar Heels will use that as a motivation this week, knowing they must improve vs. one of the best backs in the country. Larry Fedora has had some early-season struggles in Chapel Hill, but I get the sense that this game might be different. I trust the UNC offense more than any other unit on the field here.

ATS pick: North Carolina 36, Georgia 27 (Confidence 7/10)


Fordham Rams (+26.5) vs. Navy Midshipmen
Coughlin: I know what you're saying. Week 1 and you're picking Fordham? Really?

Yes, I am serious. The Rams come into this game with first year Head coach Andrew Breiner, but he is in his fifth year on the Fordham staff after serving as the passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach in his first four years. Why does this matter? Under Breiner's tutelage, the Fordham offense has ranked at the top of the NCAA FCS in each of the past four years. They also have junior running back Chase Edmonds, the 2016 Patriot League Preseason Offensive Player of the Year. And, in what might be the most important factor, they have senior quarterback Kevin Anderson, who threw for 3,183 yards and 32 TDs last year. The Rams have the firepower to stay within striking distance in this game, and Navy returns only one starter on offense, which hopefully means the Midshipmen will be a little rusty with the ball in their hands. Take the Rams to cover.

ATS pick: Navy 42, Fordham 21


Texas State Bobcats (+21) at Ohio Bobcats
Fallica: The Everett Withers era begins in San Marcos, and that alone should give a boost to a program that took a step back last year, going 3-9 and just 2-9 vs. the number. There are a couple of reasons to like Texas State here; QB Tyler Jones returns, and the defense can't help but be better with Withers on the sideline. Withers has seen a lot of turnover on the team for a variety of reasons, so the roster numbers are a bit low. That's not an entirely bad thing, as it means that starters could be playing a lot longer, even if they're well behind. Ohio is breaking in an almost entirely new secondary, and it could be susceptible to some big plays. FPI projects this to be a 13-point win for Ohio, so I'll put some faith in our power ratings and show some love for the underdog.

ATS pick: Ohio 40, Texas State 24 (Confidence 5/10)

 

[NYGiants25]

Our 10 favorite college football over/under bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin
9/1/2016

Chris Fallica and Stanford Steve (along with Phil Steele) previewed the season for all of the top 25 college football teams (according to the ESPN College Football Rankings) from a betting perspective earlier this week. But of course, some of their opinions were stronger than others.

Here are their favorite over/under bets for teams in the top 25:

Stanford Steve
Oregon Ducks (over 7.5)
How about the lack of chatter surrounding the Ducks in Eugene? It all feels so weird, knowing how they have been the face of the conference on the national scene, from their uniforms, to title game appearance to CFB Playoff spot two years ago. The best part is their head coach, Mark Helfrich, is probably happy with the lack of love being thrown the Ducks' way.

With "Rolls" Royce Freeman (6.0 yards per carry the last two years) coupled with another grad transfer QB for the second straight year -- Dakota Prukop from Montana State (who also got interest from Michigan and Alabama) -- the Ducks feel like they have enough talent to be back atop the Pac-12 North. Their out-of-conference test comes in Week 3 with a trip to Nebraska against former rival head coach, Mike Riley, but more importantly the Ducks get their two biggest division games at home in Washington and Stanford, plus they don't have to play UCLA.

The public seems to be down on the Ducks, because ... why? They had a horrible loss to end the year versus TCU where they had a huge lead and once again lost their QB? I see the Ducks in the Pac-12 title game. Gimme the over here.

Oklahoma Sooners (under 10)
A year ago, I picked the Sooners to win the Big 12; this year, not so much. I think the road is simply too tough with games vs. Houston, vs. Ohio State, at TCU and vs. Texas all in a row and then road trips to Lubbock and Morgantown later in the year. Don't get me wrong, the Sooners have a lot of things to like, including their QB Mayfield and head coach Stoops, and those are my main factors for a team when I try and project how successful their season will be.

On the other hand, the last four times the Sooners have been ranked in the preseason top five, they haven't needed the season ranked higher than No. 15. I'm also stubborn when I watch OU play, because I don't think their best player, RB Samaje Perine, gets enough touches -- I want more than 226 rush attempts and 15 catches for him this season. I just don't see Boomer Sooner winning 10 or more games this year.

Ohio State Buckeyes (over 9.5)
I don't think there's a head coach in college football who had a more pleasant offseason than Meyer. After being in Chicago to see five of his guys drafted in the first round of the 2016 NFL draft -- and 12 of his players off the board in the first four rounds -- he had a big, proud smile on his face. That, combined with another great recruiting season, helps make a coach like Meyer a nicely focused and even-keeled guy going into this season. Most importantly, I think Meyer isn't actually all that upset to have all those players off his roster and into the NFL because to me, it looked like the Buckeyes almost held back a little, knowing they all had such bright futures ahead in the league. Now Meyer gets to work with a ton of talented young players competing for spots, each getting a chance to make his own name in the rich tradition of this program.

Meyer thrives on the ability to lean on the underdog role to inspire his players, and with the offseason Michigan has had, he has to be feeling great about where his team is. It was interesting to hear Meyer at Big Ten media day saying that Barrett didn't start the season opener last year because he didn't win the QB job in summer camp. This year, there's no question who the guy at QB is in Columbus. I like the Buckeyes to win the conference and gain a spot in the College Football Playoff, easily hitting their 9.5 win total for the over.

Michigan State Spartans (over 8)
Is there a head coach in college football whom you would trust more than Mark Dantonio to lead a program that has to replace its all-time wins leader at QB? Without his starting QB, Dantonio's Spartans traveled to Columbus and defeated the defending national champions, Ohio State. What else can you ask for?

My onny issue with Michigan State is that, in addition to replacing Connor Cook, they have to find replacements for big-time players such as All-American linemen Jack Conklin and Jack Allen plus star wide receiver Aaron Burbridge. The one positive is that coach "Dino" says the guys that will fill out the offensive line have plenty of experience; the Spartans used seven combinations on the O-line last year.

We'll find out plenty about Sparty during a stretch of games early in the season, which includes a trip to South Bend along with home games against Wisconsin and BYU. I always have trust in the Spartans, plus they get conference heavyweights Michigan and Ohio State at home. I'm taking the over.

TCU Horned Frogs (over 9)
How a team plays in the previous season's bowl game is the most over-analyzed thing we do in college football. I do take something away from how TCU came back to beat Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, but it really didn't have to do with the scoreboard. It had to do with how a coach gets a message through to a team, and how the team actually responds to that head coach. Without one-time Heisman hopeful QB Trevone Boykin (suspension), TCU came back from a 31-0 deficit to rally and win in OT. To see how hard the Horned Frogs competed that night, amidst all the speculation around their suspended QB tells me all I need to know about this team.

They have plenty of talent and experience returning on defense, which will allow transfer QB Kenny Hill to get his feet wet. I never worry about recruiting or players stepping up in Fort Worth, because head coach Gary Patterson, has as good a track record of developing players as anyone in the country. I'll take the over.


Chris Fallica
LSU Tigers (under 9.5)
I can see a lot of people coming in on the over here. I would advise against that, though. The last time LSU won 10 games in the regular season was 2012; the past three years, LSU has won nine, eight and eight regular-season games, including the final regular-season game each time. As such, the under was already in the bag headed into the final contest, including last year, even if the canceled game against McNeese State had taken place and gone in the Tigers' favor.

We know what we're going to get from Fournette, but we don't know what we are going to get from Harris at QB. It certainly makes me think three losses are quite possible from the following seven games: Wisconsin, at Auburn, at Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M. I'm on the under here.

UCLA Bruins (over 8.5)
Only once in Jim Mora's four years have the Bruins won fewer than nine regular-season games, and that was last year when the team was decimated by injuries. Well, Eddie Vanderdoes and Fabian Moreau are back, and along with Kenny Young, should make the Bruins' defense one of the better units in the Pac-12. Expect Josh Rosen to take a big step forward in his sophomore year and lead the Bruins to the Pac-12 South title. UCLA's schedule is about as good as it could be in the Pac-12. The Bruins host USC, Utah and Stanford, and avoid Washington and Oregon from the North. There are two tough nonconference games at Texas A&M and BYU to navigate, but I will say 9-3 worst case.

Washington Huskies (under 9)
Washington hasn't won nine games in the regular season since its Rose Bowl campaign in 2000. That's a long time ago. In fact, that's the only time in the past 19 seasons that the Huskies won nine games in the regular season. Another thing to keep in mind: Of Washington's past 16 Pac-12 wins, 14 were against teams with losing conference records. The two exceptions were last year's Apple Cup, in which Luke Falk was injured and didn't play, and the USC game, which turned out to be Steve Sarkisian's final contest. In other words, the Huskies are going to have to start beating some good teams in order to hit -- or surpass -- that number. After a nearly guaranteed 3-0 start, UW will have to go 7-2 in Pac-12 play to surpass nine wins. UW also has to go to Eugene, and the Huskies have lost 12 straight to the Ducks. Ten wins seems like a stretch. Take the under.

Baylor Bears (over 8.5)
This much is certain: Baylor has three automatic nonconference wins and a guaranteed win over Kansas. It's also a stretch to think the Bears would lose at Iowa State; so, that's five wins. I also can't see Kansas State winning in Waco, so that's six. Are there three more wins among home games with Oklahoma State and TCU, road games with Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia and a neutral-site game with Texas Tech? I say yes. A 9-3 record looks about right for Baylor this year, as nearly all of the offensive skill is back. I'll take the over.

Louisville Cardinals (over 8.5)
I was all over Louisville last year and, by the looks of things, I might have been a year early with the Cardinals. By the end of the season, Lamar Jackson had clearly established himself as a dynamic playmaker at QB, something the Cardinals were missing in narrow, early-season losses to Auburn, Houston and Clemson. With 17 returning starters, including all the offensive skill players, as well as all but one of what should be a great LB-DB group, it appears all the pieces are in place for Louisville to make a run toward a 10-plus win season. Yes, the Cardinals have to play Clemson and Houston on the road and host Florida State, but they will be favored in every other game. I see 9-3 as a worst-case scenario, and who knows, an upset away from 10-2, or better. Give me the over here.

 

[NYGiants25]

they're showing that last article posted as of this morning, but has to be old, some of those numbers aren't available

 

[D-Woww]

if you guys dont listen, falica and stanford steve do a weekly podcast on espn's podcast network that is a must listen. they are very entertaining and both are good cappers

 

[HUNT]

Love this. Awesome.

 

[braves]

thanks for posting