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Phil Steele's best Week 2 college football bets
Sep 7, 2016
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech and Arkansas vs. TCU.
Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Saturday
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5) 7 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had unexpected struggles last week. TCU's experienced defense allowed 41 points, which culminated in the Frogs' leading South Dakota State by only four points in the fourth quarter. Arkansas faced a Louisiana Tech team without its starting quarterback (suspended). The Bulldogs missed a fourth-quarter field goal that would have given them a 23-14 lead, but instead the Hogs pulled off a one-point win with a late, fourth-down touchdown run.
The Hogs' problems look a little more severe at this point in the season. Their offensive line averages "just" 311 pounds per man, which is on the smaller side of typical; Louisiana Tech had a larger offensive line last week. The Hogs averaged only 2.7 yards per carry last week and allowed three sacks. They struggled early in 2015, including a 103-rushing yard effort (3.3 yards per carry) vs. Toledo in Week 2.
TCU quarterback Kenny Hill threw for 386 yards against the Arkansas defense in 2014, when he was with Texas A&M. If Arkansas had its offensive line at peak efficiency, I would lean with the 'dog. If they are forced to throw, I look for an opportunistic Frog defense.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 31, Arkansas 20
Penn State Nittany Lions (+6) at Pittsburgh Panthers Noon, ESPN
I am very happy that the rivalry that at one time was among the top 10 in college football is being renewed. I have these teams rated almost dead even in terms of talent, with the biggest edge going to Pitt on special teams. Penn State fans will travel and make up a decent part of the crowd, which will perhaps lessen the home edge. Both played lackluster games last week, with one eye looking ahead to this much-anticipated matchup.
I consider the game a toss-up and will call it going right down to the wire, with Penn State having a great shot at the upset. I will take the 'dog almost getting a full touchdown.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Pitt 24, Penn State 23
Central Michigan Chippewas (+21) at No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys Noon, Fox Sports 1
Last year in this column, I had Oklahoma State winning by 31 on the road, but the Cowboys struggled and won by only 11. I thought John Bonamego did a great job with the Chips last year in getting them to a bowl. Now in his second season, he has 16 returning starters and an NFL-caliber quarterback in Cooper Rush.
Oklahoma State has 17 returning starters and just hung 61 points on South East Louisiana (FCS), despite pulling the starters in the second quarter. Central Michigan is on a nice 8-1 run as an away underdog, and last year, the Chippewas traveled to East Lansing and had a 340-324 yard edge. They have enough talent to make this one closer than expected and some backdoor potential as well.
ATS pick: Central Michigan (+)
Score: Oklahoma State 38, Central Michigan 27
Kentucky Wildcats (+17) at Florida Gators 3:30 p.m., CBS
Florida was underwhelming last week in its 24-7 win over Massachusetts. Kentucky was dominant early on against Southern Miss and led 35-10 with 56 seconds left in the first half. From that point on, the Wildcats were out-gained 332-22, and they lost outright. Now Big Blue Nation is thinking coaching change.
This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Wildcats. They probably should have beaten Florida two years ago in the Swamp but lost in triple overtime. Last year Florida won by just five, barely edging the Wildcats 245-241 in total yards. Kentucky has improved quarterback play, is the more experienced team and won't be intimidated after standing toe-to-toe the past two years. Take the points with an inflated spread.
ATS pick: Kentucky (+)
Score: Florida 30, Kentucky 21
No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (-11) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies in Bristol, Tennessee 8:00 p.m., ABC
Last week's close call against Appalachian State has many Volunteer fans in a panic, with many around the nation labeling Tennessee overrated. I think it was the best thing to happen to the Vols -- they came in a little overconfident after reading their press clippings. App State is a veteran, underrated team. I look for a much different Volunteer squad to show up Saturday in a game they might have been looking ahead to last week. Virginia Tech is a good team, but the Hokies catch the Vols in the wrong week.
The game is at the Bristol Motor Speedway. The renovated race track is about halfway between the two schools, and it will be the largest crowd ever for a college football game, at roughly 150,000.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 34, Virginia Tech 17
UTEP Miners at No. 11 Texas Longhorns (-27.5) 7:00 p.m., Longhorn Network
Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 29-11-1 the past four seasons, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets often this year. In 2014, TCU was my No. 1 Most Improved team, and the offense went from 25.1 to 46.5 points per game. I expect a similar transformation from the 'Horns and their two-headed quarterback system, with the perfect combination between Shane Buechele, the starter and top-notch passer, and Tyrone Swoopes, who operates the "18 wheeler" package.
UTEP running back Aaron Jones had a career-high 249 yards rushing last week against a weak New Mexico State defense. UTEP is a much better team with him healthy, and the Miners will need him to get to a bowl. I expect UTEP to work on its pass game if it gets down and keep Jones fresh for the CUSA schedule.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 49, UTEP 13
California Golden Bears (+7.5) at San Diego State Aztecs 10:30 p.m., CBS College Sports
Cal had an impressive opening game in Hawaii and had a bye last week to get everything back in sync. Davis Webb threw for 441 yards in the opener against a bottom-20 defense. He won't match those numbers against an Aztec defense that is in the top 20, but he will have success. Rocky Long usually gets out of the gate slowly, going just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread the past three years.
San Diego State has a large edge on offense and is at home, but Cal has an equally large edge on offense and the stronger special teams. I will call for the upset here.
ATS pick: California (+)
Score: California 28, San Diego State 27
Florida Atlantic Owls (+24) at No. 25 Miami Hurricanes 6:00 p.m.
Miami has quarterback Brad Kaaya, currently regarded as the No. 2 quarterback prospect for next year's NFL draft. The Hurricanes have three talented running backs who all topped 100 yards rushing in last week's 70-3 rout of Florida A&M. The defense suffered a couple of key losses in August, as Mark Richt dismissed star pass rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad along with last year's leading tackler, linebacker Jermaine Grace. The Canes are playing three freshman linebackers, but all are talented. Florida Atlantic was fired up for last year's game at home, and only trailed by three at the half. Miami's superior talent took over in the second half and the Hurricanes -- who are now the host -- won by 24. FAU struggled in a 38-30 win over FCS Southern Illinois at home last week, surrendering 530 yards. Head coach Mark Richt needs big wins to have his team playing with confidence and will get another one this week.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 44, Florida Atlantic 13
Sep 7, 2016
Each week during the 2016 college football season, I will offer my picks and best bets for the biggest games, and I will highlight a handful of other key matchups.
Last year, my selections went 104-33 (76 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners during the regular season and 74-61-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).
Here are my selections on this week's big games, including Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech and Arkansas vs. TCU.
Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Saturday
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5) 7 p.m., ESPN
Both teams had unexpected struggles last week. TCU's experienced defense allowed 41 points, which culminated in the Frogs' leading South Dakota State by only four points in the fourth quarter. Arkansas faced a Louisiana Tech team without its starting quarterback (suspended). The Bulldogs missed a fourth-quarter field goal that would have given them a 23-14 lead, but instead the Hogs pulled off a one-point win with a late, fourth-down touchdown run.
The Hogs' problems look a little more severe at this point in the season. Their offensive line averages "just" 311 pounds per man, which is on the smaller side of typical; Louisiana Tech had a larger offensive line last week. The Hogs averaged only 2.7 yards per carry last week and allowed three sacks. They struggled early in 2015, including a 103-rushing yard effort (3.3 yards per carry) vs. Toledo in Week 2.
TCU quarterback Kenny Hill threw for 386 yards against the Arkansas defense in 2014, when he was with Texas A&M. If Arkansas had its offensive line at peak efficiency, I would lean with the 'dog. If they are forced to throw, I look for an opportunistic Frog defense.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 31, Arkansas 20
Penn State Nittany Lions (+6) at Pittsburgh Panthers Noon, ESPN
I am very happy that the rivalry that at one time was among the top 10 in college football is being renewed. I have these teams rated almost dead even in terms of talent, with the biggest edge going to Pitt on special teams. Penn State fans will travel and make up a decent part of the crowd, which will perhaps lessen the home edge. Both played lackluster games last week, with one eye looking ahead to this much-anticipated matchup.
I consider the game a toss-up and will call it going right down to the wire, with Penn State having a great shot at the upset. I will take the 'dog almost getting a full touchdown.
ATS pick: Penn State (+)
Score: Pitt 24, Penn State 23
Central Michigan Chippewas (+21) at No. 22 Oklahoma State Cowboys Noon, Fox Sports 1
Last year in this column, I had Oklahoma State winning by 31 on the road, but the Cowboys struggled and won by only 11. I thought John Bonamego did a great job with the Chips last year in getting them to a bowl. Now in his second season, he has 16 returning starters and an NFL-caliber quarterback in Cooper Rush.
Oklahoma State has 17 returning starters and just hung 61 points on South East Louisiana (FCS), despite pulling the starters in the second quarter. Central Michigan is on a nice 8-1 run as an away underdog, and last year, the Chippewas traveled to East Lansing and had a 340-324 yard edge. They have enough talent to make this one closer than expected and some backdoor potential as well.
ATS pick: Central Michigan (+)
Score: Oklahoma State 38, Central Michigan 27
Kentucky Wildcats (+17) at Florida Gators 3:30 p.m., CBS
Florida was underwhelming last week in its 24-7 win over Massachusetts. Kentucky was dominant early on against Southern Miss and led 35-10 with 56 seconds left in the first half. From that point on, the Wildcats were out-gained 332-22, and they lost outright. Now Big Blue Nation is thinking coaching change.
This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Wildcats. They probably should have beaten Florida two years ago in the Swamp but lost in triple overtime. Last year Florida won by just five, barely edging the Wildcats 245-241 in total yards. Kentucky has improved quarterback play, is the more experienced team and won't be intimidated after standing toe-to-toe the past two years. Take the points with an inflated spread.
ATS pick: Kentucky (+)
Score: Florida 30, Kentucky 21
No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (-11) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies in Bristol, Tennessee 8:00 p.m., ABC
Last week's close call against Appalachian State has many Volunteer fans in a panic, with many around the nation labeling Tennessee overrated. I think it was the best thing to happen to the Vols -- they came in a little overconfident after reading their press clippings. App State is a veteran, underrated team. I look for a much different Volunteer squad to show up Saturday in a game they might have been looking ahead to last week. Virginia Tech is a good team, but the Hokies catch the Vols in the wrong week.
The game is at the Bristol Motor Speedway. The renovated race track is about halfway between the two schools, and it will be the largest crowd ever for a college football game, at roughly 150,000.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 34, Virginia Tech 17
UTEP Miners at No. 11 Texas Longhorns (-27.5) 7:00 p.m., Longhorn Network
Texas is my most improved team in the country, and that team has accumulated a spread record of 29-11-1 the past four seasons, so expect the Longhorns to be among my best bets often this year. In 2014, TCU was my No. 1 Most Improved team, and the offense went from 25.1 to 46.5 points per game. I expect a similar transformation from the 'Horns and their two-headed quarterback system, with the perfect combination between Shane Buechele, the starter and top-notch passer, and Tyrone Swoopes, who operates the "18 wheeler" package.
UTEP running back Aaron Jones had a career-high 249 yards rushing last week against a weak New Mexico State defense. UTEP is a much better team with him healthy, and the Miners will need him to get to a bowl. I expect UTEP to work on its pass game if it gets down and keep Jones fresh for the CUSA schedule.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 49, UTEP 13
California Golden Bears (+7.5) at San Diego State Aztecs 10:30 p.m., CBS College Sports
Cal had an impressive opening game in Hawaii and had a bye last week to get everything back in sync. Davis Webb threw for 441 yards in the opener against a bottom-20 defense. He won't match those numbers against an Aztec defense that is in the top 20, but he will have success. Rocky Long usually gets out of the gate slowly, going just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread the past three years.
San Diego State has a large edge on offense and is at home, but Cal has an equally large edge on offense and the stronger special teams. I will call for the upset here.
ATS pick: California (+)
Score: California 28, San Diego State 27
Florida Atlantic Owls (+24) at No. 25 Miami Hurricanes 6:00 p.m.
Miami has quarterback Brad Kaaya, currently regarded as the No. 2 quarterback prospect for next year's NFL draft. The Hurricanes have three talented running backs who all topped 100 yards rushing in last week's 70-3 rout of Florida A&M. The defense suffered a couple of key losses in August, as Mark Richt dismissed star pass rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad along with last year's leading tackler, linebacker Jermaine Grace. The Canes are playing three freshman linebackers, but all are talented. Florida Atlantic was fired up for last year's game at home, and only trailed by three at the half. Miami's superior talent took over in the second half and the Hurricanes -- who are now the host -- won by 24. FAU struggled in a 38-30 win over FCS Southern Illinois at home last week, surrendering 530 yards. Head coach Mark Richt needs big wins to have his team playing with confidence and will get another one this week.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: Miami 44, Florida Atlantic 13
