E$P-In Not outsiders Week 1

[NYGiants25]

Best CFB Week 1 bets

College football season is back, which means that our betting experts are as well. Every Thursday, our CFB experts -- Phil Steele, Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica -- will pick two common games and then as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file, for your perusing pleasure.

Here are the best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.

Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.

Common games
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles at Atlanta, Georgia
Steele: This is the highest-ranked matchup ever for an opening week with No. 1 versus No. 3, and I believe it will live up to its billing. The talent is stacked on both sides of the ball with NFL-caliber players, as all the units are ranked in my top 25 unit rankings. Alabama's biggest edge may be with the stronger offensive line; Florida State has the special teams edge. The Seminoles only lose three lettermen off last year's defense and get back Derwin James, who missed almost all of 2016 due to an injury. He may be the nation's top defensive player.

Nick Saban is 9-0 versus his former assistants, but he has yet to face one that has won a national title. This game could go either way and I will side with a very talented underdog getting a full touchdown.

ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Alabama 26, Florida State 23

Fallica: While it isn't a game I would be running to play, if I had to I would simply say to myself: At some point I just need to trust Nick Saban in this type of season-opener.

In five previous season-openers at Alabama versus ranked opponents -- three coming against Top-10 teams -- Saban's team has won all five by double digits. Who knows how the week will play out, but at the time of writing, FSU WR Auden Tate is nursing an injury and LB Matthew Thomas' status is in doubt. Will the FSU offensive line be any better? It better be as Deondre Francois took a beating last year, getting sacked 34 times, including six times against Clemson. If the WR core is basically Noonie Murray and a couple of unproven guys and you're relying on a combo of a true freshman (Cam Akers) and Jacques Patrick and a questionable offensive line to score points against Alabama, that's a problem.

The FSU defense improved dramatically as the year went on, but I think based on what we know right now, Alabama has more answers on offense and is the safer play. One will never look foolish for picking Alabama to win a football game.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Florida State 21

Coughlin: I think the storyline of Nick Saban facing his former LSU assistant Jimbo Fisher is being a little overblown, seeing as how they do not stay that in touch -- Fisher said the last time they chatted was at the NFL draft. That said, I think it should be pointed out that Saban is 8-2 ATS vs. former assistants -- that's enough for me to lean in the direction of the Tide.

It also seems to me, as I read some of the articles out of Tallahassee, that the 'Noles might be coming into the game not at full strength -- injuries are starting to pile up. Alabama comes in with more proven guys in the playmaking category, with Jalen Hurts (Saban's first returning starter at QB since 2013) and RB Bo Scarborough, who rushed for over 800 yards in 2016.

Last season, Alabama scored 15 non-offensive touchdowns, which led the country. While I'm not saying that the Crimson Tide will repeat that effort in 2017, I like being on the side of the team where those types of things happen, and they happen because of the way Saban prepares his team. I'm giving the points.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Florida State 17


No. 11 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5) vs. No. 17 Florida Gators at Arlington, Texas
Steele: Michigan has the fewest returning starters in the country (five) and its young team (No. 128 in my experience chart) is away from home. Florida has 14 returning starters and beat Georgia, LSU and Iowa away from home last year. The Gators have slight edges on offense and defense and a bigger edge on special teams (No. 3 versus No. 38). Florida is a top-10 team in my rankings and I think Michigan will be playing its best football at the end of the year. The Gators have eight suspended players, including two starters, but their special teams and experience edge will help them pull off the upset in Arlington, Texas.

ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 27, Michigan 24

Fallica: We really don't know much about either offense here, as Michigan will no longer have RB De'Veon Smith and every productive WR/TE from last year. Florida has its own unknowns at QB and will not have Antonio Calloway and others because of suspension. McElwain's decision here is interesting: Does he go with the guy who has started some at Notre Dame, but only recently arrived in Gainesville (Malik Zaire), or does he go with Feleipe Franks, who has no playing experience but has been in Gainesville for two years now.

I do think Michigan is a tad underrated entering the season. That defensive line with Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary should be nasty and help take some pressure off an inexperienced secondary. And Don Brown's track record suggests he'll figure it out. If Florida does indeed have the best offensive line in the SEC, they will need to play like it here.

Much like the Alabama-Florida State game, I wouldn't be running to a window to play this one, as it's a total toss-up game where no result would really surprise me. But because I have to make a pick, I'll go with the favorite in a really good, competitive game.

ATS pick: Michigan
Score: Michigan 28, Florida 24

Coughlin: If you like two teams who just line up and try to knock each other around, this should be a fantastic game to watch.

We know about the Florida suspensions. We've read plenty about the teams' back-and-forth over proper pre-game depth chart and roster releases. Florida has not announced its starting QB, and I can't believe how many opinions there are on who it will be. Does the 41-7 butt-whipping Michigan gave the Gators in the Citrus Bowl after the 2015 season mean anything? All items worth considering.

While the Gators only return five starters on defense, there are plenty of guys coming back who played a ton at the end of the 2016 season, when the team was struck by injuries. The idea of Michigan losing all that defensive talent (10 starters on defense) seems a bit much to me against a tough opponent in Week 1. I also think Wilton Speight and the Wolverines offense will take a little time to jell, and will really miss Jake Butt and their two other top pass-catchers from a year ago. I'll take the points in a tough game.

ATS pick: Florida
Score: Michigan 12, Florida 10

 

[NYGiants25]

Thursday/Friday games

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-18)
Fallica: Oklahoma State has struggled in its first game in the role of a favorite versus FBS opponents in recent years. Last year, of course the Cowboys lost the controversial game against Central Michigan as a 17-point favorite. But in 2015, OSU plodded to a 24-13 win at CMU as a 21-point favorite. In 2013, they did cover a 12.5-point number in a 21-3 win at Mississippi State, but in 2012 the Sooners lost to Arizona 59-38 as a 10.5-point favorite. Expect a typical Big 12 high-scoring affair as Philip Montgomery's offenses will always score points. I look to 2015 when Tulsa went to Norman off a 2-10 season as a 30-point 'dog and lost by 14 to a team that went to the CFP.

Based on last year's statistics this is not a four-TD game -- Oklahoma State was 18th in offensive EPA, while Tulsa was 20th. And you'll probably be surprised to hear Tulsa had by the better defense -- 41st in defensive EPA, while Oklahoma State was 60th. One of the trendiest picks of the season, Oklahoma State will win, but you're laying a big number here based on the public love for this team, so I think there is value with the 'dog. The Pokes have failed to cover in four of the last five games they were a double-digit favorite, getting a cover last year in a 24-point with over Kansas as a 22.5-point favorite on a TD run with 5:00 remaining.

ATS pick: Tulsa
Score: Oklahoma State 49, Tulsa 35


Memphis Tigers (-26) vs UL Monroe Warhawks
Fallica: The Tigers return nine starters -- including all the skill guys -- from an offense that averaged 39 PPG last season. The defense was the weak point, but that shouldn't be too big a concern against one of the worst teams in the country from a year ago (100th in offensive EPA, 123rd in defensive EPA). This could be as bad as Mike Norvell, Riley Ferguson and Co. want it in their home opener prior to two key games at UCF and vs UCLA. The fact the game is Thursday should help Memphis be fully locked in here, as the Tigers have the long week prior to the trip to Orlando. I think the Tigers are a dangerous team this year in the AAC.

ATS pick: Memphis
Score: Memphis 49, UL Monroe 10


Navy Midshipmen (-9.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls
Steele: The only prior meeting between these two teams was in 2012 and Navy won, 24-17. Last year, Navy ended with three straight losses, which cost them the AAC title and possible Cotton Bowl bid. It's Lane Kiffin's debut at FAU and they've had all month to get ready for the option. Navy's offense is at its best late in the year. In the last five years they've averaged 27.7 points per game the first five games versus FBS foes, and 36.8 points per game after that. They only average 20.7 points per game on the road in the first five games in that same span.

FAU is No. 1 on my experience chart and has a brand new offense with Kendall Briles as the offensive coordinator, while Navy is No. 102 on my experience chart. FAU has also added a handful of Power 5 transfers since my magazine went to press, making them even stronger.

ATS pick: Florida Atlantic
Score: Navy 34, Florida Atlantic 31


Boston College Eagles (-3) at Northern Illinois Huskies (over/under: 52)
Coughlin: This Friday night matchup makes the column for a couple reasons. First, B.C.'s Steve Addazio seems to be on the hot seat, and the Eagles' schedule has them playing consecutive conference games against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson after this one -- this team needs to open the season with a win really bad.

We all know the style of the Eagles, who are going to run the ball and play defense. That defense returns seven starters from a unit that amassed 47 sacks -- fourth in FBS last season. I think the run game and the defense travels well to what should be a mediocre home-field advantage at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois. I'll lay the points.

ATS pick: BC
Score: Boston College 23, Northern Illinois 13

 

[NYGiants25]

Saturday games

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Marshall Thundering Herd (-2.5)
Steele: Marshall is 8-1 in the series with three straight wins by at least 20 points. In their last meeting in 2014, the Thundering Herd won 42-27. Marshall is 10-2 in home openers with its only two losses to ranked teams. Miami won their last six last year to get to a bowl with an underclassman laden team, and now are the third most experienced team in the country. Marshall has just 13 returning starters, but does bring in some very highly touted Power 5 transfers and should have a bounce-back season. Miami has lost nine straight road openers.

ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 28, Miami (OH) 21


UMass Minutemen (-2.5) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Steele: Massachusetts has the advantage of having a game under its belt and teams usually make the most improvement from Week 1 to Week 2. This is Coastal Carolina's first game as an FBS member. They were 10-2 last year, but have just 10 returning starters and are No. 104 on my experience chart. Massachusetts was just 2-10 last year, but played the big boys tough in a lot of games and had three net close losses. Last week they led Hawai'i (a bowl team in 2016) by two touchdowns and only lost on a last-minute touchdown. Coastal Carolina head coach Joe Moglia is taking a leave of absence this year.

ATS pick: Massachusetts
Score: Massachusetts 37, Coastal Carolina 23


Kentucky Wildcats (-10) at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Steele: Last year Kentucky was in control of this game, winning 35-10 in the second quarter. Southern Miss got a 71-yard touchdown pass with 26 seconds left in the half, had a 399-19 yard edge from that play on and won on the road, 44-35. The Wildcats are No. 20 on my experience chart and the Golden Eagles come in at No. 85. Kentucky only has an FCS team on deck and will be fully focused on their revenge. Kentucky has solid edges on offense, defense and special teams and will not let up after blowing that 25-point lead last year.

ATS pick: Kentucky
Score: Kentucky 38, Southern Mississippi 23

Monday's games

No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers (-3) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Steele: These schools last met in 1987, and while this is technically a neutral site (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) it's in Atlanta, the same city Georgia Tech calls home (Georgia Tech is 2 miles away, Tennessee is 211 miles away). The Volunteers are 3-0 when starting a season at a neutral site with the average win by 28 points per game. Tennessee has the benefit of having the entire month to prep for the option, held Appalachian State to 149 yards below its season average in last year's opener and only has Indiana State on deck. Tennessee is ranked higher on my experience chart and is an under-the-radar team after under-achieving last year.

ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 31, Georgia Tech 24


Nevada Wolf Pack at Northwestern Wildcats (-24)
Steele: Northwestern barely made it to a bowl last year, but has 16 returning starters including quarterback Clayton Thorson and running back Justin Jackson. Nevada has a new head coach with new systems on offense and defense. Nevada's leading rusher, James Butler, transferred to Iowa over the summer. Pat Fitzgerald gets his team fired up in the 'dog role, but is just 16-26 as a home favorite; only twice in his 11 years has he been a favorite of three touchdowns or more and not covered. It might take a quarter for Northwestern to figure out what Nevada is doing on both offense and defense scheme-wise. With Duke on deck, Northwestern doesn't figure to be adding to the margin in the fourth quarter.

ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Northwestern 34, Nevada 17


Troy Trojans at Boise State Broncos (-11.5)
Fallica: Boise State was a completely overvalued team last year, living off past reputation. The Broncos went 3-10 against the number, including 0-6 on the fabled "Blue Turf" and lost three games outright as at least a 7-point favorite. Their loss to Baylor in the bowl game was one of the more puzzling no-shows of the bowl season. QB Brett Rypien and WR Cedrick Wilson are back, but that's really it. Gone are RB Jeremy McNichols, WR Thomas Sperbeck and seven defensive starters.

Troy is a very dangerous underdog here. The Trojans return every skill player on offense with QB Brandon Silvers and RB Jordan Chunn being the most notable. The Trojans have been a super-live road underdog under Neal Brown, going 6-2 ATS, including a near miss in Death Valley last year against eventual national champion Clemson. Even the home fans aren't that excited for this afternoon kick, as it has been reported many tickets remain available. It all adds up to a potential Week 1 stunner.

ATS pick: Troy
Score: Troy 31, Boise State 28


Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5)
Fallica: It's the 10-year anniversary of the Mountaineers' upset over Michigan and just last year Appalachian State took the at-the-time SEC East favorite Tennessee to overtime at Neyland Stadium. With a solid running game, sound execution and a propensity to take care of the football, Appalachian State is a live' dog here. This is a tough spot for Georgia, which nearly lost to Nicholls State in Athens last year and has been a terrible home favorite lately, failing to cover each of the last four instances dating back to 2015. Add to that a road game at Notre Dame next week and there could be some concern UGA is looking past this just a bit despite what Appalachian State nearly did last year.

The Georgia defense should be excellent, but questions remain at QB, WR and O-line. Ultimately, Nick Chubb and Sony Michel will help wear down the Mountaineers defense, but I expect a struggle here.

ATS pick: App State
Score: Georgia 30, Appalachian State 17


California Golden Bears at North Carolina Tar Heels (-11)
Fallica: North Carolina lost seemingly everything from its offense -- QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Elijah Hood, WR Ryan Switzer, Bug Howard and Mack Hollins. It would be a surprise to see the offense -- especially early on -- equal the production of the past few seasons. UNC is also breaking in a couple new pieces in the secondary and the defensive line. That could spell trouble, as Cal has a big-time WR in Demetris Robertson. The defense can't help but be better with new head coach Justin Wilcox and DC Tim DeRuyter. Beau Baldwin should be a solid fit as OC, too. The Bears aren't going to win many games this season, but as bad as things went last year in Berkeley, they still managed to beat Texas, Utah, Oregon and UCLA.

UNC has started the season extremely slowly under Larry Fedora, going 0-5 versus the number. The Tar Heels have lost to their first FBS opponent in four of five seasons and nearly lost at home to San Diego State in 2014 as a 15.5-point favorite.

ATS pick: Cal
Score: North Carolina 34, Cal 31


Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5) vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Fallica: Wyoming will be a very trendy 'dog here, but I'd be careful with a team that went from 2-10 to 8-6 last year despite allowing 34.1 PPG, 452.9 YPG and getting 27 turnovers (10th in FBS). Don't get me wrong, Josh Allen can sling it, but this year will be a test for him and the Cowboys without Brian Hill in the backfield and Tanner Gentry on the receiving end of those Allen tosses. Last year Wyoming went to Nebraska and was outgained 550-320, committing five turnovers in the process. Despite some questions in the secondary, I completely trust Iowa's front seven here to dominate the line of scrimmage, as well as on the other side of the football with the offensive line establishing a running game to power the Hawkeyes to a convincing win.

ATS pick: Iowa
Score: Iowa 42, Wyoming 24


Ball State Cardinals (+7) at Illinois Fighting Illini
Fallica: In 2016, Ball State started 3-1 before dropping seven of the final eight games to finish 4-8 (four of those seven losses were by seven points or fewer). Included in the 3-1 start was a 10-point loss at Indiana as a 17-point 'dog. Covering versus Big Ten teams is nothing new for the Cardinals, who have covered seven of the eight meetings agaubst the Big Ten with three outright wins. QB Riley Neal returns for Ball State, along with 1,300-yard back James Gilbert and four offensive line starters.

Illinois was among the worst Power 5 teams in the country last year and probably will reside in that group again this year. I just can't imagine walking to a window asking to lay points here.

ATS pick: Ball State
Score: Illinois 31, Ball State 27


Vanderbilt Commodores (-3) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Fallica: This is one of the bigger differences in Week 1 between the Vegas spread and FPI, which projects a 10-point Commodore win. Each of the last two years -- when Middle Tennessee had better teams, and Vandy likely wasn't as good -- the Commodores won and covered as a 2.5-point underdog and 3.5-point favorite, respectively. If Vanderbilt has any bowl aspirations, this is a must-win game. And I think the Commodores will get it.

The Blue Raiders defense was really poor last year, as it gave up 36 points and 449 yards per game (including 47 points in a loss to Vandy). People know the QB-WR combo of Brett Stockstill and Richie James, but expect a very good defensive mind in Derek Mason to have a plan to slow the duo down. Sixteen starters are back for the Commodores, which won at Georgia, nearly won at Auburn and blew out Tennessee and Ole Miss late last year. Look for RB Ralph Webb to have a big game here.

ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Vanderbilt 34, Middle Tennessee 24

 

[NYGiants25]

OVER/UNDERS

Western Michigan Broncos (+27) at USC Trojans (over/under: 57.5)
Coughlin: Heisman favorite QB Sam Darnold slings it everywhere early, mixes in some handoffs to his 1,000 yard rusher, Ronald Jones, and the Trojans get off to a fast start and lead by a couple of scores. Then, the Broncos get their feet underneath them, with star returning running backs Jarvion Franklin (1,373 yards in '16) and Jamauri Bogan (941 yards in '16) helping them get back within 10-13 points. At that point, USC will put the foot back on the gas -- before leaving the back door open to end the game.

Western Michigan is still a good team and is my pick to win the MAC, but just doesn't have the stallions to hang with the Men of Troy. USC coach Clay Helton will want to get this season started as differently from last year as possible (the blowout loss to Alabama), and that means holding nothing back from the playbook and continuing a trend that saw the Trojans score 40-plus points in four of their last six 2016 games. Fireworks are expected, and the scoreboard will be lit up.

Pick: USC 45, Western Michigan 28 (over 57.5)


Maryland Terrapins (+18) at Texas Longhorns (O/U: 56)
Coughlin: First off, it's supposed to be 92 degrees in Austin at kickoff for this game. I just point that out because my senior year at Stanford (1999), we opened the season in Austin and it felt like it was 120 degrees. I've never felt anything like that "Texas Hot," and I'll let you look up the final score to assess the impact on our team.

Beyond the heat, I also think about the splash Tom Herman will want to make in his first game as head coach of the Longhorns in front of that home crowd. In his first two season-openers as a head coach (2015 and 2016 at Houston), Herman's team scored 52 and 33 point in wins over Tennessee Tech and Oklahoma, respectively

Maryland comes into this game fresh off a 2016 season in which the Terps rushed for over 2,500 yards for just the seventh time in program history. My expectation is that Maryland offensive coordinator Walt Bell will find a way to score some points in what should be a tough environment. I see a lot of kickoffs and fight songs being played in this one. I'll take the over.

Pick: Texas 48, Maryland 24 (over 56)

 

[NYGiants25]

Ultimate 2017 college football betting guide

With the 2017 college football season rolling into action, now is the time to lock down those value bets. Looking beyond Alabama and the heap of favorites to win it all, two of ESPN Chalk's college football betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help you find value.

Below is our 2017 college football betting guide, covering the best values among teams to win the College Football Playoff, season win totals, conference titles and Heisman Trophy contenders. If you're looking to wager on college football this season, this is the primer you need to read.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.


Best title bets
Steele
While none of the teams I list below are in my projected four for the College Football Playoff, there is great value on these teams. A small wager on one of them could return a significant amount.

Washington Huskies (20-1)
This number appears high for a team that made the playoff last season and is a favorite to get back to the conference title game. Washington was my No. 1 surprise team last season, and the Huskies sure enough made the playoff. This season, they have 14 returning starters, including quarterback Jake Browning, and their No. 14 ranking on my "Experience Chart" is the highest of any Pac-12 team. They do have to travel to Stanford, and if they win the North Division, the Huskies will likely have to face Southern California, who beat them 26-13 in Seattle last season. Still, this team represents solid value and could be favored in all 12 games.

Clemson Tigers (35-1)
The defending national champions can certainly be considered a value pick at this price. Clemson's defense had just three and four returning starters in the past two seasons, respectively, but now it has seven, including my No. 1-rated defensive line in the country. The Tigers do lose Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Mike Williams, but let's not ignore the plethora of talent returning. Clemson gets both Florida State and Auburn at home, and current game lines in Vegas have the defending champs favored in every matchup.

Florida Gators (60-1)
The Gators are my No. 1 surprise team this year and are an outstanding value at 60-1. The past two seasons, Florida has lost its starting quarterback in the first half of the season and still made it to the SEC title game each time. This season, the Gators have three capable quarterbacks heading into the year in Feleipe Franks, Luke Del Rio and Malik Zaire, combined with the best skill personnel they've fielded in several years. They have their usual top-notch defense, and I rate their special teams No. 3 in the country. They have just three true road games: Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri. They get an inexperienced Michigan in the opener, and Florida's other neutral-site game is versus Georgia, who has lost to the Gators for three straight seasons.

Harris
It's tough for us to find any value in the heavily juiced championship futures market, especially this late in the offseason. Among the favorites, we'd have taken the Ohio State Buckeyes at the opening price of 8-1, but now that they are down to 3-1, I might give a slight nod to the Alabama Crimson Tide at 5-2. Both of these programs' defenses are reliably excellent even in seasons following a mass talent exodus, and both look to have championship-caliber offenses this year. Bama is thoroughly loaded at every offensive position group save tight end, while Ohio State's addition of versatile genius Kevin Wilson cements the Buckeyes as the top spot in our coaching staff rankings.

Top dark horse prospects include the Michigan Wolverines at 15-1 and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 25-1.

Best season win total bets
Steele
Miami Hurricanes (Over 9 wins)
I've correctly picked the Hurricanes each of the past two seasons, and they look to be underrated once again. If Brad Kaaya had returned at quarterback, they would be a top-10 team. I like teams with an excellent defensive front seven, and the Hurricanes have that. Last season, they started three true freshmen at linebacker and now have one of the top linebacker units in the country. I rate their defensive line No. 4 in the nation with talent like Chad Thomas. When I factor in their overall roster and schedule, I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 of their 12 games. With that in mind, I will choose the over again and call for Miami to make its first-ever ACC title game.

Marshall Thundering Herd (Over 6 wins at South Point)
Marshall won 11 games per season from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Herd took a shocking dip down to just three wins, and that's why we have this exceptional value for a team that has now averaged nine wins per season over the past four years. Marshall has 13 returning starters and a veteran quarterback, and it brings in some Power 5 transfers on defense who will make it one of Conference USA's best defensive units.

Florida Gators (Over 9.5 wins)
Florida is my No. 1 surprise team this year as a non-top-10 team that I think will contend for a College Football Playoff spot. Florida has made the SEC title game in each of the past two seasons, and it will have its best offense in over five seasons. I think Florida will finish with 10 or 11 wins during the regular season, so this is a solid play on the over.

Harris
Michigan Wolverines (Over 9 wins)
The popular 2017 narrative focuses on Michigan's modest tally of returning starters, but the Wolverines actually bring back more lettermen than any Big Ten team besides Indiana. This bunch is experienced enough and has top-tier talent being developed by an elite staff. They are a top-five power in our book and a legit national contender every year for the next few years. The back-to-back 10-3 records might be Jim Harbaugh's worst marks for a while, and we're not counting on the oddsmakers offering up a single-digit season total again anytime soon.

Wisconsin Badgers (Under 10.5 wins)
Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this offseason centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. We'll channel Lee Corso and say "Not so fast" to that. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style playcallers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison, and while he's lost just three games in each of his first two seasons at his alma mater, it's important to remember that it's still just two years -- with players that another staff recruited. Two years ago, we wrote that Chryst would fail to replicate the accomplishments of the Bret Bielema era and would eventually disappoint, but that the obvious decline wouldn't really begin until he lost rising star Dave Aranda to a bigger job. That happened after just one year, and now Chryst has lost Justin Wilcox as well. The result is a third defensive boss in three years, and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never.

Last year, the team was fueled by the pundits' (including this one) suggestions that the schedule was too tough for a big year. Mission accomplished, 2016 doubters proved wrong, but it's unclear where the needed chips on shoulders will come from this year. Throw in some really damaging injuries to key players in camp, and this bunch looks even less poised to take the next step up and join the elite. The list price of -160 is certainly not a small number to be taken lightly...but neither is 11 wins.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Over 8 wins)
Declan Sullivan. Lizzy Seeberg. NCAA punishment for widespread academic cheating. Purplefacegate. The coaches' sideline shoving match. The #FireVanGorder tweet. Manti Teo's fake girlfriend.

Brian Kelly's tenure at Notre Dame has been marred by tragedy, controversy and outright scandal. Whether you hold Kelly and/or the university wholly responsible for all the off the field issues, totally absolve them or anything in between, one thing is evident: All of the black eyes the program has taken in Kelly's tenure have set the on-field product back. Notre Dame has the resources, talent and coaching required to be a perennial contender for national honors, and the 2017 campaign looks like an obvious bounce-back year.

Kelly did lose his fifth coordinator to an FBS head coaching job, but it's otherwise finally been an incident-free offseason in South Bend, and the result is more players making bigger developmental leaps. The team chemistry is its best in years, and the head coach is by self-admission more attentive to the necessary details than he was last year.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (Over 9 wins)
The Cowboys have cracked double digits in the win column in five of the past seven seasons, and this senior-laden roster shapes up as the best team yet in Mike Gundy's tenure. The passing game is unstoppable with Gundy's first three-year signal-caller Mason Rudolph throwing to All-American James Washington, and the ground game is rejuvenated behind sophomore Justice Hill. For five years, the defense has benefited from a steady increase in the resources and attention allocated to that side of the ball, and the program has become an industry leader in using math and science to find an edge. Gundy leads a mature organization in Year 13, and with all the junior and senior talent on hand, 2017 looks like a payoff season for the steady advances across the board.

 

[NYGiants25]

Conference title bets
Steele
San Diego State Aztecs (8-5)
When I look at the Mountain West Conference's West Division, my only question for the Aztecs is will they clinch the division by the sixth or seventh game of conference play? The gap between San Diego State and everyone else is huge. I easily rate the Aztecs as No. 1 in the conference, and they are not even the favorite to take the Mountain West title (Boise State).

Kansas State Wildcats (7-1)
I think five teams have a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 this year. Bill Snyder usually relies on a large amount of JUCOs, and his two-deep is dominated by upperclassmen. Last year, 135 starts were by underclassmen, the most ever under Snyder (26 years at the helm). The Wildcats' 14 returning starters are the most since 2012 when they got as high as No. 2 before their quarterback was injured. Take the value at 7-1.

Stanford Cardinal (9-2)
Stanford was the favorite to win the Pac-12 last year, but then started the season just 4-3. The Cardinal won their last six games, and they go from No. 122 on my experience chart to No. 49. Stanford hosts Washington on a Friday, and a win in that game would likely put it in the Pac-12 title game. It is also noteworthy that the Cardinal beat Southern California last season 27-10. Stanford has my No. 8 rated defense.

NC State Wolfpack (20-1)
I love the Wolfpack's defensive line, and they have a veteran quarterback. They missed a last-second field goal that would have provided an upset over Clemson last season, and they also only lost to Florida State by four points. There is great value at 20-1.

Harris
The chalk looks unfavorably priced, and the longshots look like no-hopers, so the most palatable late pickings in this market are found in the middle of the conference championship betting orders.

The Wyoming Cowboys and Michigan Wolverines are both 7-1. Each team has a junior quarterback with a year of starting experience, and each boasted a 200-plus yard-per-game rushing attack last year. Both are led by elite, proven coaches who are now a few years into their programs (third for Jim Harbaugh and fourth for Craig Bohl).

The Central Florida Knights are just 6-1 in the American, and second-year boss Scott Frost is a rising star rather than a proven blue-chipper. But the AAC has no deeply entrenched powers, and UCF's overall talent is among the best in the league. We love Frost and continue to be very bullish on this outfit's long-term prospects.

Best Heisman bets
Steele
My pick to win the Heisman is Southern California quarterback Sam Darnold, but preseason favorites rarely win, and I would not wager on anyone who does not have greater than 10-1 odds at this point in the season.

Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State Seminoles (15-1)
Francois was hit a lot throughout last season, but he stayed in games and showed his durability. This season, Florida State will have some big marquee games (Alabama, Clemson, Louisville) for him to showcase his skills. Running back Dalvin Cook got all the media attention on the Florida State offense in 2016, and that focus will be Francois' this year with Cook off to the NFL. If the Seminoles emerge from their tough schedule unscathed, Francois will have much to do with it and will put himself at the top of the Heisman list. He's my best value bet right now.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (15-1)
Browning has a great shot at improving on last year's statistics and might be worth a look. While he faltered a bit down the stretch in the big games, he was struggling with a shoulder injury. With another year of experience under his belt, I don't think there will be a drop off this season. Washington remains a contender in the Pac-12. It avoids Southern California and will be favored in every game except a road trip to Stanford, thus making Browning a contender for the Heisman if he performs.

Harris
The past eight Heisman winners have all been dual-threat quarterbacks or workhorse running backs. Ohio State's Mike Weber would look good at 60-1 representing the latter group if not for the presence of emerging superstar J.K. Dobbins in the same backfield. So give us 80-1 and Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush, an athletic dual-threat with speed, arm strength, top-shelf offensive coaching and plenty of outstanding players around him in the starting 11.

 

[HUNT]

love this shit although steele is off his rocker

 

[Coolslaw1]

Good read, ty for the insight