Wow, been a long while since I've posted. I've just been merrily going about my way making money the past few months. One thing I've been having luck on is riding a team that's been scoring a lot lately, or playing against a bad defense, or basically Florida all the time and hitting play props for guys to get 2 or more points. Hit a Fiala one the other day for +600, the Florida ones have been knocked down to all hell - ffs, the o/u on their game last night was 7 (-130), so not all that much value. Hit Laffy and Mika last night at +600 and +244 cause I love my Rangers. Ryan Reeves has been the best f.a. signing by the Rangers in years ffs.
Anyway, not going to rehash old picks, but wanted to stir up some futures discussions. I can't copy and paste from work, but here are my thoughts
Hart Trophy
McDavid is pretty marginal favorite at +175, but this is "to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team." Not the best player in the league. Oilers are just so-so and McDavid's already won it twice, so pass for me
Ovie +325, another hard pass. Caps again are just so-so and I can make a better case for guys at better odds
Matthews at +650 has a bit of interest for me. Guy has 35+ goals 5 times (other year was 34 goals) and is just 24 years old. Unreal in this day and age. Leafs are an interesting team this year as they actually put some emphasis on defense now.
Guys I like to win at odds:
Shesterkin +1500 or Barkov +3000
No one means more to their team than #31 for the Rangers, but it's not very often that a goalie wins the Hart. Price's 2014-15 season is a very good comp, but Montreal won the division and I don't think the Rangers will. I know Huberdeau is putting big numbers up for the Panthers this year, but for my money Barkov is their MVP. MVP on arguably the best team in the league at 30/1? I like it. Guys like Bergeron and Barkov never win this award, but honestly, they should more often. Two way players that are always on the ice at the most important times are MVP's in my book.
Art Ross trophy
McDavid's or Draisaitl's to lose, even if Huberdeau is making a late charge. Edmonton is going to need points every game coming down the stretch, and I can see Florida easing their way into the playoffs. 30 games left, so injuries obviously huge but McDavid's been super durable, I think he's good at -150 or better.
Jack Adams trophy
Sutter is the favorite at +200 and Calgary's been great this year, but honestly, they play in a shit division. Vegas is the best team, they have just had massive injury issues all year long and now will have cap struggles.
Give me either Brunette at +500 or Gallant at +700
Florida's had talent and made a few big offseason moves but best team in the best division at 5/1 odds, I like it. Panthers at home are a monster to watch, they pepper the net every game like no one's business.
Gallant is just a value pick here. Rangers missed playoffs last year, have a very young team, and their big offseason pickups were Goodrow, Blais, Nemeth and Reeves. Blais out for the year, Goodrow meh, obviously no big name pickups. But Gallant has gotten the most from the team and they are a good year-two ahead of schedule. Probably will not win the award unless the Rangers win the division, which they will not, but he deserves his name to be in the hat.
Norris trophy
Best defensemen in the NHL right now are Hedman/Josi/Makar and Fox. Ekblad is having a great year for sure, so you can't discount him at 15/1, but he's not as good as the first four. Makar at -150 right now is ridiculous. Yeah he's great, and highlight reel level, but Josi has same number of points on a much more offensively challenged squad.
Makar -150 PASS
Hedman +450 seems right but I'll pass
Fox +550 again seems right, but I don't think he'll win back to back, this year is not quite as great as last
Josi +1500 YES PLEASE
Ekblad +1500 yes for a little
Vezina trophy
I made this best last night, odds changed slightly
Shesterkin +110 (now evs)
Absolutely the front runner. Amongst goalies with 25+ games save percentage Shesterkin 0.940, Anderson 0.927, Markstrom, 0.926 gaa Shesterkin 1.98, Markstrom 2.11, Anderson 2.12. I know this will not come into consideration really, but in shootouts, he has faced the most attempts against and is saving 72%. MAF is doing great in shootouts as well, but no one else comes close to touching those two.
Markstrom is at +450 and is the only other goalie I'd consider, but tbh, Calgary plays such a defensive minded grinding team and Shesterkin is under constant attack, I discount Markstrom's chances due to this.
If you want an absolute flyer, Jack Campbell at +1200 is worth a shot. He's fallen off a bit of late, but he absolutely carried the Leafs in November/December and if he can regain that form and Leafs are able to win the division, he will be in the discussion.