Duke vs. Syracuse: NCAAF Week 6 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Duke Blue Devils vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 3) at Carrier Dome in Syracuse
Duke’s Offensive Struggles
It’s easy to overlook the extent to which the Blue Devils are struggling offensively.
It is true that they accrued 31 points last week against what is supposed to be a strong Virginia Tech defense.
But one has to note that Duke had under 200 yards of offense heading into the fourth quarter. They played against a Hokie defense whose starting secondary and an insane portion of its depth was depleted by injury or COVID.
Defensively, especially against the pass, the Hokie lack of depth certainly caught up to it in that fourth quarter, which is why it allowed Duke to gain its only cover thus far.
So Duke’s struggles in the first three quarters are telling because they say much about what Duke cannot do even against backups of backups.
Chase Brice
Transfer from Clemson Chase Brice has been disappointing as Duke’s starting quarterbacks.
Between his poor decisions, such as his forced balls, and his inaccuracy, his statistics are revealing. He’s completing 52.7 percent of his passes and has thrown seven interceptions to three touchdowns.
And this is the quarterback of a team that’s favored on the College Football Oddsboard?
To be fair, Brice can’t take all of the blame. His poor numbers owe partly to the difficulty of his receivers with which they accrue separation.
He is not finding much chemistry, which is why his leading wide receiver has all of 10 receptions.
When they don’t separate themselves from opposing defensive backs, the quarterback has to compensate with stronger timing and greater accuracy. Brice does neither.
Pass protection doesn’t help Brice, either. The Blue Devils rank 117th in rate of sacks allowed.
So we see a combination of things here, all attesting to the fact that Duke’s passing attack fails on every level.
Syracuse Secondary
One reason, I think, why Syracuse is being disrespected by College Football Oddsmakers is that little hope was placed in its secondary.
To be perfectly clear, the Orange lost a lot of important defensive backs during the offseason.
But they are improving and doing more than holding their own at least against the ACC’s lower-tiered pass attacks.
Last week, Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims mustered 174 passing yards while completing 13 of 28 pass attempts and throwing one touchdown to four interceptions.
Even when the Orange faced much more talented and dangerous pass attacks. their ability to accrue turnovers has been constant.
So far this season, they have picked off seven passes. This tendency bodes ill for mistake-prone Brice and Duke’s still anemic pass attack.
Whereas the Syracuse pass defense is outperforming expectation, Brice and company are disappointing.
Syracuse Offensive Balance
Quarterback Tommy DeVito is different than Duke’s last opposing quarterback because he is a competent passer.
He’ll build off his 141 rating-effort against the Yellow Jackets because Duke is depleted in its secondary where it misses two starters.
One advantage is that he enjoys a reliable and big-play receiver in Taj Harris who is dynamic in that he can be dangerous running with the ball, too.
DeVito also benefited in that Georgia Tech game and will still benefit from a more balanced offense.
Another perceptible area of improvement is in Syracuse’s run game. One sees this in Syracuse’s game-by-game progress.
After rushing for 68 yards against UNC and 51 against Pitt’s superb defense, the Orange accrued 163 yards against Georgia Tech.
Not only is Syracuse’s offensive line gelling, the Orange have discovered a reliable running back.
Against the Yellow Jackets, Sean Tucker took over. He accrued 112 yards in 24 rush attempts.
Duke Run Defense
This improvement will continue against a thin and undersized Duke defensive line.
The Orange’s newfound rush attack is important because Duke’s defensive-line is more geared towards rushing the passer.
Stopping the run is a weakness for the Blue Devils. They devoted all their resources and all their strategy to this aim and yet Virginia Tech still produced over 300 yards on the ground.
It’s not just Virginia Tech, either. But also Virginia ran well against Duke as Wayne Taulapapa accrued 5.9 YPC.
The Verdict
Syracuse is underrated given its progress on the ground and against the pass.
Winning the turnover battle thanks to Brice’s mistakes and its defensive plays will help.
Best Bet: Orange +3 (-115) with Bookmaker
Duke Blue Devils vs. Syracuse Orange
Saturday, October 10, 2020 at 12:30 p.m. ET (ESPN 3) at Carrier Dome in Syracuse
Duke’s Offensive Struggles
It’s easy to overlook the extent to which the Blue Devils are struggling offensively.
It is true that they accrued 31 points last week against what is supposed to be a strong Virginia Tech defense.
But one has to note that Duke had under 200 yards of offense heading into the fourth quarter. They played against a Hokie defense whose starting secondary and an insane portion of its depth was depleted by injury or COVID.
Defensively, especially against the pass, the Hokie lack of depth certainly caught up to it in that fourth quarter, which is why it allowed Duke to gain its only cover thus far.
So Duke’s struggles in the first three quarters are telling because they say much about what Duke cannot do even against backups of backups.
Chase Brice
Transfer from Clemson Chase Brice has been disappointing as Duke’s starting quarterbacks.
Between his poor decisions, such as his forced balls, and his inaccuracy, his statistics are revealing. He’s completing 52.7 percent of his passes and has thrown seven interceptions to three touchdowns.
And this is the quarterback of a team that’s favored on the College Football Oddsboard?
To be fair, Brice can’t take all of the blame. His poor numbers owe partly to the difficulty of his receivers with which they accrue separation.
He is not finding much chemistry, which is why his leading wide receiver has all of 10 receptions.
When they don’t separate themselves from opposing defensive backs, the quarterback has to compensate with stronger timing and greater accuracy. Brice does neither.
Pass protection doesn’t help Brice, either. The Blue Devils rank 117th in rate of sacks allowed.
So we see a combination of things here, all attesting to the fact that Duke’s passing attack fails on every level.
Syracuse Secondary
One reason, I think, why Syracuse is being disrespected by College Football Oddsmakers is that little hope was placed in its secondary.
To be perfectly clear, the Orange lost a lot of important defensive backs during the offseason.
But they are improving and doing more than holding their own at least against the ACC’s lower-tiered pass attacks.
Last week, Georgia Tech quarterback Jeff Sims mustered 174 passing yards while completing 13 of 28 pass attempts and throwing one touchdown to four interceptions.
Even when the Orange faced much more talented and dangerous pass attacks. their ability to accrue turnovers has been constant.
So far this season, they have picked off seven passes. This tendency bodes ill for mistake-prone Brice and Duke’s still anemic pass attack.
Whereas the Syracuse pass defense is outperforming expectation, Brice and company are disappointing.
Syracuse Offensive Balance
Quarterback Tommy DeVito is different than Duke’s last opposing quarterback because he is a competent passer.
He’ll build off his 141 rating-effort against the Yellow Jackets because Duke is depleted in its secondary where it misses two starters.
One advantage is that he enjoys a reliable and big-play receiver in Taj Harris who is dynamic in that he can be dangerous running with the ball, too.
DeVito also benefited in that Georgia Tech game and will still benefit from a more balanced offense.
Another perceptible area of improvement is in Syracuse’s run game. One sees this in Syracuse’s game-by-game progress.
After rushing for 68 yards against UNC and 51 against Pitt’s superb defense, the Orange accrued 163 yards against Georgia Tech.
Not only is Syracuse’s offensive line gelling, the Orange have discovered a reliable running back.
Against the Yellow Jackets, Sean Tucker took over. He accrued 112 yards in 24 rush attempts.
Duke Run Defense
This improvement will continue against a thin and undersized Duke defensive line.
The Orange’s newfound rush attack is important because Duke’s defensive-line is more geared towards rushing the passer.
Stopping the run is a weakness for the Blue Devils. They devoted all their resources and all their strategy to this aim and yet Virginia Tech still produced over 300 yards on the ground.
It’s not just Virginia Tech, either. But also Virginia ran well against Duke as Wayne Taulapapa accrued 5.9 YPC.
The Verdict
Syracuse is underrated given its progress on the ground and against the pass.
Winning the turnover battle thanks to Brice’s mistakes and its defensive plays will help.
Best Bet: Orange +3 (-115) with Bookmaker
