NCAA Football Parlay Plays For Saturday
Duke Blue Devils vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh North Carolina
NC State Offense’s Turnaround
Offensively, NC State is surprising everybody including College Football Oddsmakers.
So far, the „over“ is 4-0 in four Wolfpack games.
One feature of the Wolfpack’s offensive surge is its creative play-calling.
In general, scheme helps NC State.
The Wolfpack like to lineup in shotgun with multiple wide receivers spread out.
Their spread formations enable pockets of space to form between defenders.
Quarterback Devin Leary is massively improved this year. So he can take advantage of those open areas.
This year, Leary’s completion rate is 11.9 percent higher than it was last year. Likewise, his YPA is 2.3 higher.
Also, he’s thrown seven touchdowns to one interception after throwing five interceptions and eight touchdowns last year.
Wolfpack Offense vs. Duke Defense
Defensively, Duke is suffering against the pass because it misses its two starting cornerbacks. Most notably, top cornerback Mark Gilbert is injured.
So right now its pass defense ranks 93rd nationally.
The Blue Devil pass defense ranks as poorly as it is despite the fact that it’s had several advantages.
Duke got to face a quarterback in Notre Dame’s Irish Book who was very sloppy in his team’s season opener and who's also known for preferring shorter to immediate passes.
Likewise, the Blue Devils have benefited from facing the ACC’s worst passing offense based on YPG, which is easily Syracuse.
In Virginia Tech the Blue Devils saw a quarterback who is purely run-first and is completing only 45.1 percent of his passes on the season.
Against Boston College, the Blue Devils struggled in terms of opposing completion percentage and yardage against the Eagles’ new transfer quarterback in his first game.
So NC State is different from these other passing attacks both because it is more aggressive, more gun-slingng and because it’s well-seasoned.
Duke Offense vs. NC State Defense
NC State’s pass defense is likewise low-quality.
Missed assignments and other mistakes are characteristic for this secondary, which helps the defense rank 114th against the pass.
Duke quarterback Chase Brice finally showed something. Against Syracuse, he put up 270 yards and two touchdowns. He can do at least as much against the Wolfpack.
He was helped by strong run support as Deon Jackson ran for 169 yards on 30 carries.
Mataeo Durant is also surging with back-to-back 80+-yard rushing performances. He’s averaging 6.7 YPC this season partly thanks to his big-play ability.
They will gash a Wolfpack run defense that ranks 96th. The Wolfpack repeatedly allow opposing running backs to thrive who are able to.
Given their last performance and Duke’s improved run-blocking, one can’t expect them to let NC State’s run defense off the hook the way that Virginia did.
As the Blue Devils remain close in scoring, their offense can maintain this effective balance. .
Best Bet: Over 60 at -110 with Bovada
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN 2) at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Trends
Both teams are strong „under“ teams.
So far this season, the „under“ is 2-0 in two Tulsa games.
Regarding the Bearcats, their games have gone „under“ the total posted by College Football Oddsmakers in eight of their past nine games overall and in each of their last six games against an AAC opponent.
Running Clock
When deciding to play an „under,“ the thing you want most is for the game to be shorter. If there is less time for both teams to score, then it’s less likely that they will score more points.
In this game, the clock will be running constantly. While Cincinnati ranks 21st in run-play percentage, Tulsa ranks 26th.
Both teams feature a collective of running backs to rotate and rely upon.
Plus, Cincinnati has a quarterback in Dez Ridder who is also a threat on the ground.
While both quarterbacks can be decently efficient, neither one is going to launch passes downfield.
In particular, the Bearcats are limited in this respect by their reliance in the passing game on a running back and tight end. Both Gerrid Doaks and Josh Whyle are in the team’s top-three in receiving yards.
So we’ll see a conservative offensive approach from both sides in terms both of passing and running.
Defense
With each team relying heavily on its run game, it’s important to recognize each team’s run-stopping abilities.
Tulsa has impressed by limiting one of the nation’s top running backs, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard, to 3.4 YPC on 27 rush attempts.
Then, when facing Tulsa, UCF only mustered 3.7 YPC on 34 team rushing attempts.
The Golden Hurricanes have enough returning ability and proven experience in their defensive line to keep themselves from being gashed.
Cincinnati’s returning defensive line is much more stacked with quality and depth this year than Tulsa’s, which is partly why I also think the Bearcats will cover the spread.
While the Bearcats were respectable in limiting Army’s ground game to 4.2 YPC, 1.4 below its season average, they shut down South Florida’s ground game, which produced 2.5 YPC, in the team’s other FBS contest.
Best Bet: Under 44 at -110 with Bovada
Parlay: Duke/NC State Over 60 (110) & Cincinnati/Tulsa Under 44 (-110) at Bovada at +264 odds
Duke Blue Devils vs. NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh North Carolina
NC State Offense’s Turnaround
Offensively, NC State is surprising everybody including College Football Oddsmakers.
So far, the „over“ is 4-0 in four Wolfpack games.
One feature of the Wolfpack’s offensive surge is its creative play-calling.
In general, scheme helps NC State.
The Wolfpack like to lineup in shotgun with multiple wide receivers spread out.
Their spread formations enable pockets of space to form between defenders.
Quarterback Devin Leary is massively improved this year. So he can take advantage of those open areas.
This year, Leary’s completion rate is 11.9 percent higher than it was last year. Likewise, his YPA is 2.3 higher.
Also, he’s thrown seven touchdowns to one interception after throwing five interceptions and eight touchdowns last year.
Wolfpack Offense vs. Duke Defense
Defensively, Duke is suffering against the pass because it misses its two starting cornerbacks. Most notably, top cornerback Mark Gilbert is injured.
So right now its pass defense ranks 93rd nationally.
The Blue Devil pass defense ranks as poorly as it is despite the fact that it’s had several advantages.
Duke got to face a quarterback in Notre Dame’s Irish Book who was very sloppy in his team’s season opener and who's also known for preferring shorter to immediate passes.
Likewise, the Blue Devils have benefited from facing the ACC’s worst passing offense based on YPG, which is easily Syracuse.
In Virginia Tech the Blue Devils saw a quarterback who is purely run-first and is completing only 45.1 percent of his passes on the season.
Against Boston College, the Blue Devils struggled in terms of opposing completion percentage and yardage against the Eagles’ new transfer quarterback in his first game.
So NC State is different from these other passing attacks both because it is more aggressive, more gun-slingng and because it’s well-seasoned.
Duke Offense vs. NC State Defense
NC State’s pass defense is likewise low-quality.
Missed assignments and other mistakes are characteristic for this secondary, which helps the defense rank 114th against the pass.
Duke quarterback Chase Brice finally showed something. Against Syracuse, he put up 270 yards and two touchdowns. He can do at least as much against the Wolfpack.
He was helped by strong run support as Deon Jackson ran for 169 yards on 30 carries.
Mataeo Durant is also surging with back-to-back 80+-yard rushing performances. He’s averaging 6.7 YPC this season partly thanks to his big-play ability.
They will gash a Wolfpack run defense that ranks 96th. The Wolfpack repeatedly allow opposing running backs to thrive who are able to.
Given their last performance and Duke’s improved run-blocking, one can’t expect them to let NC State’s run defense off the hook the way that Virginia did.
As the Blue Devils remain close in scoring, their offense can maintain this effective balance. .
Best Bet: Over 60 at -110 with Bovada
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Saturday, October 17, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN 2) at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma
Trends
Both teams are strong „under“ teams.
So far this season, the „under“ is 2-0 in two Tulsa games.
Regarding the Bearcats, their games have gone „under“ the total posted by College Football Oddsmakers in eight of their past nine games overall and in each of their last six games against an AAC opponent.
Running Clock
When deciding to play an „under,“ the thing you want most is for the game to be shorter. If there is less time for both teams to score, then it’s less likely that they will score more points.
In this game, the clock will be running constantly. While Cincinnati ranks 21st in run-play percentage, Tulsa ranks 26th.
Both teams feature a collective of running backs to rotate and rely upon.
Plus, Cincinnati has a quarterback in Dez Ridder who is also a threat on the ground.
While both quarterbacks can be decently efficient, neither one is going to launch passes downfield.
In particular, the Bearcats are limited in this respect by their reliance in the passing game on a running back and tight end. Both Gerrid Doaks and Josh Whyle are in the team’s top-three in receiving yards.
So we’ll see a conservative offensive approach from both sides in terms both of passing and running.
Defense
With each team relying heavily on its run game, it’s important to recognize each team’s run-stopping abilities.
Tulsa has impressed by limiting one of the nation’s top running backs, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard, to 3.4 YPC on 27 rush attempts.
Then, when facing Tulsa, UCF only mustered 3.7 YPC on 34 team rushing attempts.
The Golden Hurricanes have enough returning ability and proven experience in their defensive line to keep themselves from being gashed.
Cincinnati’s returning defensive line is much more stacked with quality and depth this year than Tulsa’s, which is partly why I also think the Bearcats will cover the spread.
While the Bearcats were respectable in limiting Army’s ground game to 4.2 YPC, 1.4 below its season average, they shut down South Florida’s ground game, which produced 2.5 YPC, in the team’s other FBS contest.
Best Bet: Under 44 at -110 with Bovada
Parlay: Duke/NC State Over 60 (110) & Cincinnati/Tulsa Under 44 (-110) at Bovada at +264 odds
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