Duck Commander Independence Bowl

BenchCoach

BenchCoach

Pretty much a regular
As a few of you guys already know, they play this one in my backyard...I will provide as much gameday info on the morning of the game as I can from a local standpoint...I will get a pretty good read on one of the two teams this year as I have a very close contact that is working on a daily basis with the team(this person is attending their walk through this afternoon)...besides weather I should have some pretty good info regarding motivation for both teams, health concerns, and weather (pretty solid chance for heavy rain tonight and tomorrow morning as of now, temps should be pretty moderate in the 50's)...I will have a full write up late late tonight
 
I live in South Fla and I follow the Canes program pretty close, I'm looking forward to your write-up, right now I'm leaning Cocks
 
kane said:
I live in South Fla and I follow the Canes program pretty close, I'm looking forward to your write-up, right now I'm leaning Cocks
Click to expand...

Probly lean the same way Kane...The SEC is normally a no brainer for me to make it a play...the trends I have researched show me other wise, the ACC is 7-4 ATS in their last 11 vs. the SEC as a doggie...The SEC is 6-7 and 3-10 vs the spread in bowl games played between dec 26 and dec 31st...The SEC typically has these problems during this time frame because this is when teams that had less than expected type seasons play in bowl games...all this so far is very logical and would point to a play on Miami

Another major factor going into this game is the line movement...The Cocks opened as a -1 favorite and are now a 3.5 pt dog...an old bowl game trick/trend is to play on a team when the line moves more than 4 pts in their direction...this has hit at around 64% over the last 15-20 years (little vague on the exact time frame of this stat as it is an old trend that someone provided to me about 8 years ago)...with totals it works the same way and has hit 57% (this came into play today in the La Tech game)

the reports I got out of the Cock camp is that they are very motivated to be here...they were told their options were Birmingham or Shreveport, needless to say Shreveport (casinos, food, downtown, etc...) was their choice place to go...they are staying downtown in one of the river front casinos, it isn't the Ritz but its a fun place for the youngsters to visit...bars don't close till 6am although they have been on a curfew...they have had no trouble from any of their players as far as behavior goes

Key Injuries...there will be a starting defender not in the starting lineup and wont be playing (not going to say who or what his injury is as it doesn't really matter why he is out, just that he is out)...Miami...I don't have as much information here but I do know they have a significant lower body injury that occurred the first day they were here (I don't know who the player is other than I got the feeling by the reaction I heard he was of significance)

I will be back tomorrow to give exact weather information...as of right now its pretty mild temps (50's) with some misty rain crap...supposed to start raining around midnight and continue throughout the day tomorrow...weather around these parts can change in a heart beat and usually does...back tomorrow boys
 
That's interesting about that injury. Haven't heard a word. Have heard that some players complaining about weather this week. Wonder if the weather effect will be in effect for canes this game like many other. Worried about loss of TE Walford for Kaaya. He has been his safety blanket/occasional big play maker. If offense Is right/motivated hard to see Duke not having 150 yds+ with Dorsett having a big play or 2
 
Morning Weather Report In Shreveport...Its raining like a cow pissin on a flat rock!...Thick layer of morning Fog, I couldn't see 40yds down my drive way to the street this morning...The Fog will be gone by late morning...Thunder/Lightning and shit storm of rain for those Miami boys to wake up too...I cant think Miami is real pumped up to wake up this morning and look out the Hilton Hotel window to see this...I will be in contact with someone who is on the sideline today so I should get a good update close to kickoff...I have already made my play on this game, not going to post it until later this morning...trying to just post information on the game that I have received and let people form their own opinions before I throw mine in there...back in a few hours to update the weather
 
All the florida boys ain't going to like the temperature. Too lazy to look up the exact #s, but they are like 0-20 when temps are under 40or 45 degrees. In terms of the rain, shouldn't be an impact to their offense. Also about a 100% chance Duke turns pro after this game, wonder if keeping injury free weighs on his mind.
 
If it's a driving rain storm, going to have a negative impact on their deep throws. When they have been successful Duke runs have really opened up the downfield stuff. Dorsett led the ncaa in ypc.
 
Temp will be in the upper 50's gametime and from the looks of the latest forecast rain may not be much of a factor until 4 or 5pm in the afternoon...the big cell that was just on us is passing through...back in a few hours
 
See my comment under Bowl Game discussions re key S.C. def. injuries. Could have me backing off S.C.
 
Can you find out if they're going to layer the field with Vaseline like they've been doing to some of these other fields. Apparently they want to turn fields into an ice skating rink.
Public loves betting college bowl overs while Vegas is providing field paint to make sure we slow these players down. Unders in these high total games are like gold.
 
wiseplayer said:
Can you find out if they're going to layer the field with Vaseline like they've been doing to some of these other fields. Apparently they want to turn fields into an ice skating rink.
Public loves betting college bowl overs while Vegas is providing field paint to make sure we slow these players down. Unders in these high total games are like gold.
Click to expand...

last 8 years including this year so far...here is all totals with a closing line 60 or higher...36-46 in favor of the under...last two years its 10-22...outside of the last two years I wouldn't call it "gold" but its some interesting information and something to watch for
 
Field itself is in fine condition...they actually take pretty good care of it...It's a nice little mid-size stadium to watch a game in...I have watched a few high school games there over the last 5 years I have been living here...most high school and college kids that play on the turf there say it is faster than the turf the are used too, whatever that means...its in good condition and I don't expect poor footing to be an issue

Rain looks like it will hold off until late in the game (5pm or so)...temp should be around 62...back before kickoff if I get any more information
 
I took the 3 with SC, while I'm concerned about their porous defense, I couldn't pass up getting a fg with the SEC. I faded the Canes the last two weeks of the season after that devastating loss to FSU. UM put so much into that game, and it was a game they know they should have won, very tough for college kids to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss like that. They've had some time now to regroup, so maybe the FSU game is behind them now, but they really collapsed their last two games. I love what I've seen from Kaaya this year, but he's still a freshman and while he's made some terrific throws, he's also made some poor decisions, which you would expect from someone that young. Dylan Thompson is a senior playing his last game, and for as much as I like Kaaya, I think I trust the senior a little more than the freshman in this spot.

SC's defense gives up 5.4 yds per rush which is God awful, so I'm expecting a big day for the Duke, but like Canes pointed out, the loss of their tight end Walford can't be understated, and even though I like Al Golden, I have to give the coaching edge to Spurrier. On paper there figures to be a lot of scoring, but not sure what effect the rain will have. This isn't one of my favorite plays, there are some others that I like much more than this one, but ultimately I feel like SC will make an extra play or two and squeak out a win.
 
Kane...agree with your analysis...not my favorite play on the board either but I think the SEC being a dog is at the end of the day a no brainer...Spurrier is much more experienced in these types of bowl games...I'll come back with any updates about 15 min before kickoff...my sideline guru said they will hit me up a half hour before kickoff
 
Chance for showers just jumped in the last 1/2 hour...as of now looks like it might dump around 3pm by my best estimate, good size cell headed this way...steady light rain throughout the rest of the afternoon...rain coming from the southwest...back in a bit
 
I feel pretty confident you will see some shitty weather at some point before halftime...I believe this will benefit the Cocks
 
Tornado warnings all over south of here...still looks like its at least 50 miles out and I think most of the bad stuff will miss us to the south
 
Last Report...wind doesn't look like it will be a factor...rain should hit pretty hard sometime in the 1st qtr and off and on light rain will continue throughout the game...gl guys and enjoy the game
 
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