Dubs at Grizz - Game 4 Discussion...

emkee

emkee

The Truth Is Out There
Think this game is worthy of it's own thread.

Big game in the scheme of who's winning it all this year, imo.

Historically,

The home team in this spot (if they played Game 1 on the road) is 10-5 SU, with a series record of 23-2 should they win Game 4.

:popcorn:
 
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<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px;">[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 5/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]731[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-5 -102[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-208[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 196 -105[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]732[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+5 -108[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+186[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 196 -105[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
MemFis gives Dubs so many fits. I just don't think they have any answers for Gasol & ZBo
yet Grizz do have answers for the Splash Brothers. D Green & Barnes are gonna have to play their asses off
 
GS has to find a way to uptempo this game. The half court defense of Memphis is suffocating. Plain and simple they gotta just hit their shots, and run off Memphis misses. Game 1 the Warriors hit 46% of their 3's. Just 23% in both game 3 and 4 going 12 for 52 combined. Can they hit their shots and get going? We'll see. The lack of an inside game is showing big time where the guards don't have to double down and leave outside guys open. And the bigs of GS need to man up and play with a little pride. Bogut is stealing money at this point. No way I lay 5 with GS on the road. Just going to root for them that way I don't have to cover a number.
 
I will admit that I've thought GSW to be the hands down favorite this season but this Memphis team is an enigma, be curious to see how it plays out, the one team that can really take them down imo
 
League has a habit of correcting itself. Biggest issue for Dubs is that the 3-ball isn't falling.
 
Memphis +5 is the correct play, no question in my mind for several reasons:
1) The assumption that three point shots will start to fall has no merit. Hawks backers still waiting for Hawks to appear in the playoffs and it's been 9 games in to the playoffs already and they appeared for one half only (in Game 6).
2) Memphis lead 4 - 2 ATS over the Warriors, including 2 - 1 in regular season. This is not a fluke they are playing well against them.
3) 5 points line!!! Memphis are 16-6-2 at home in the playoffs with this core (72%)
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query...=1+and+H+and+season>2009&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
They are 17 - 7 SU. Out of those 7 losses, two after OT (one after triple OT), one by one point only.
You really need to be in love with the GSW to take this bet or chase some loss on them in Game 2 or 3 to take this bet imho.
Not sure if Memphis is the right bet, but it's Memphis or skip in my eyes.
Also, this season, it was the first time in the history of the league, that all 4 higher seeds trailed 1 - 2. I would assume that a split makes sense, so that two teams will trail 1 - 3 and two will tie 2 - 2. No more than a feeling obviously.
Still to lay 5 points here...
 
divol said:
Memphis +5 is the correct play, no question in my mind for several reasons:
1) The assumption that three point shots will start to fall has no merit. Hawks backers still waiting for Hawks to appear in the playoffs and it's been 9 games in to the playoffs already and they appeared for one half only (in Game 6).
Click to expand...

Comparing the Dubs to the Hawks is just wrong, Divol.
 
Yes, but I'm talking about expectations. I think that you can't also compare Wizards to the Grizzlies as well, especially without Wall.
Bottom line is that Memphis played well against GSW in 2 out of 3 games in regular season and 2 out of 3 games in the playoffs. Can GSW win by 10+ points any team in the league? Of course. But where is the value in GSW -5? What would be the correct line in the eyes of such GSW backer?
Why would we assume that the shots will suddenly go in? They can go in, but why assume it as if it's a given?
It's 50 - 50 game in my eyes and as such, 5 points line is a huge line.
Let's not forget that Warriors struggled in 3 out of 4 games against the Pels also, so it's not like they are in a sudden 2 games slump...

You will be on the Warriors I assume?
 
emkee said:
Possibly. Would like to see Mike Callahan officiating.
Click to expand...


[TABLE="width: 831"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TD="class: tableRowEven"]Golden State @ Memphis[/TD]
[TD="class: tableRowEven"]Mike Callahan[/TD]
[TD="class: tableRowEven"]Tony Brothers[/TD]
[TD="class: tableRowEven"]Pat Fraher[/TD]
[TD="class: tableRowEven"]Brian Forte[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Boom.
 
yup refs definitely good for golden state.... They'll probably give them the game in the 4th quarter just like they have been doing so for top teams down in the rest of the playoffs



I'll still be on the Grizzlies ML. They are just flat out the better team for the playoffs. GS has no viable interior game. You guys are banking on Steph or Klay going bananas. Why even lay the points? Just bet on their props..... The rest of the team ain't gonna win it for them.

Maybe Kerr could give David Lee more minutes :rofl:
 
nbafan88 said:
yup refs definitely good for golden state.... They'll probably give them the game in the 4th quarter just like they have been doing so for top teams down in the rest of the playoffs



I'll still be on the Grizzlies ML. They are just flat out the better team for the playoffs.
Click to expand...

We said that every year since 2010.
 
emkee said:
We said that every year since 2010.
Click to expand...

Experience. The dubs gotta lose to see their deficiencies. It's the only way to get to the promise land. They have to fail in the later rounds in order for the GM to see what his team needs to get better.
 
You also have to realize that the Warriors guards haven't played this long of a season yet. Have they? That's another thing about playoff experience. Maybe curry and klays legs just aren't the same..... Another reason why 3 point reliant teams fail the majority of the time.
 
nbafan88 said:
Experience. The dubs gotta lose to see their deficiencies. It's the only way to get to the promise land. They have to fail in the later rounds in order for the GM to see what his team needs to get better.
Click to expand...

Dubs' core have been in the playoffs since 2012/13. Grizz' core have been in since 2010/11.

Experience is somewhat even. Only need 2 consecutive playoff seasons to establish 'experience', imo.
 
Dubs core doesn't matter. They have too many new pieces and a new coach who also is learning on the fly. The grizz's game plan for this series is working and the Warriors need to figure out how to speed things up and get more comfortable. Do you have any idea on what that something could be or are you just hoping they stop building houses with all those bricks and turning the ball over as much as they do?

The matchup is just really awful for the Warriors. Especially in a 7 game series where their opponents are not going to be surprised and their opponents will not just throw in the towel like one of their games in mid January

id take Conley over curry for playoff basketball any day of the week, month, or year
 
But it also a question of where the teams during that period. Memphis usually got one step ahead of the GSW each year.
Actually, NBAFan made a valid point. Curry played 80 games in the regular season - his highest number of games a season + this run - he could be a bit fatigued.
 
emkee said:
League has a habit of correcting itself. Biggest issue for Dubs is that the 3-ball isn't falling.
Click to expand...

Which is what the Grizz are defending, forcing them to go inside, which is a losing proposition over 7 games to the Grizz (if Conley is healthy).. which i was very surprised to see how well he has played after having a broken face.. those few days off also helped his lingering ankle injury......

Would it surprise me that the grizz got a few quick fouls allowing some 3 pointers to fall, not at all.. it is good for the game... ;)
 
divol said:
But it also a question of where the teams during that period. Memphis usually got one step ahead of the GSW each year.
Actually, NBAFan made a valid point. Curry played 80 games in the regular season - his highest number of games a season + this run - he could be a bit fatigued.
Click to expand...

How many of those 80 games did he sit out an entire quarter?
 
nbafan88 said:
You also have to realize that the Warriors guards haven't played this long of a season yet. Have they? That's another thing about playoff experience. Maybe curry and klays legs just aren't the same..... Another reason why 3 point reliant teams fail the majority of the time.
Click to expand...

3 point shooting teams have won 3 of the last 4 NBA Titles.
 
Kinda reminds me of what everyone was saying about the clips being done after game 3 of Spurs series( me included).

Have no reasoning other than I think klay and steph are due for a big game so like GSW, but I'm not taking 5, hope for a small frizz lead early on and hop on GSW at a better number
 
Warriors need league intervention sort of like the refs ignoring Blatt's best CWebb impression yesterday.

Grizzlies are the better team. Split a max bet on them spread and ML in game 3 after being on Warriors game 1 and 2.

I read and hear all the time about Curry's slump but it's not a slump its the fact there isn't a quality shot to be had at any point.

It's a must win for Warriors but since Grizz the better team IMO I'll take them again ATS and ML small/medium at home.
 
ArizonaKid said:
3 point shooting teams have won 3 of the last 4 NBA Titles.
Click to expand...

I would consider the Warriors a 3 point shooting team. I'd consider the Rockets the same. The Spurs and Heat sure jacked them up but they had far more in and out balance. Numbers might suggest the teams are similar but they aren't.

But once again people are saying this is a slump and I would argue it's the fact they can't get an open quality look inside 24 seconds. No post presence makes things difficult. See Bulls at stretches yesterday without Pau.
 
Will the warriors dbl Randolph or gasol in the post? Green can't guard them one on one
 
A 10-point win and a 7-point win isn't the sign of a matchup problem.

Dubs were in both games and a ton of uncharacteristic unforced errors killed 'em.

Very hard to win 3-straight games vs a very good team in the regular season let-alone the playoffs.

Home teams in the playoffs under Callahan have a .333 winning percentage and a -10.5 points differential.

Other ref Brothers always used to have beef with Memphis but it's filtered off a bit lately.

Fraher is Callahan's side-ho.

Have never seen a 1-seed written off after a couple of bad games quite like the Warriors. All the Phil Jackson type peeps that don't believe in 3-point shooting teams with the 'I told you so' bullshit.
 
The Warriors had "runs" in those games to make them look closer than they actually were. Grizzlies dominated both games for a good 35-40 minutes.

I don't see many writing off the Dubz. But this isn't a mistake or a slump. It's a series and Warriors style of play which blitzes unprepared opponents could never be as effective. See last couple of years in the playoffs...
 
emkee said:
A 10-point win and a 7-point win isn't the sign of a matchup problem.

Dubs were in both games and a ton of uncharacteristic unforced errors killed 'em.

Very hard to win 3-straight games vs a very good team in the regular season let-alone the playoffs.

Home teams in the playoffs under Callahan have a .333 winning percentage and a -10.5 points differential.

Other ref Brothers always used to have beef with Memphis but it's filtered off a bit lately.

Fraher is Callahan's side-ho.

Have never seen a 1-seed written off after a couple of bad games quite like the Warriors. All the Phil Jackson type peeps that don't believe in 3-point shooting teams with the 'I told you so' bullshit.
Click to expand...

Those wins are DD differences ATS. Something is off...
 
Inspekdah said:
Warriors need league intervention sort of like the refs ignoring Blatt's best CWebb impression yesterday.

Grizzlies are the better team. Split a max bet on them spread and ML in game 3 after being on Warriors game 1 and 2.

I read and hear all the time about Curry's slump but it's not a slump its the fact there isn't a quality shot to be had at any point.

It's a must win for Warriors but since Grizz the better team IMO I'll take them again ATS and ML small/medium at home.
Click to expand...

This is the first time I've heard that mention today and that's why it's going to be very easy to see the Grizz get into some kind of foul trouble to open the floor for the Splash Brothers to get good looks. But I tell you Curry the MVP looked like he was going to cry last game. Sad be a man do that in the locker room. Tough call I need the Hawks to show up. Thought I was stealing Money -110 for the series.:shake:
 
nbafan88 said:
Dubs core doesn't matter. They have too many new pieces and a new coach who also is learning on the fly. The grizz's game plan for this series is working and the Warriors need to figure out how to speed things up and get more comfortable. Do you have any idea on what that something could be or are you just hoping they stop building houses with all those bricks and turning the ball over as much as they do?

The matchup is just really awful for the Warriors. Especially in a 7 game series where their opponents are not going to be surprised and their opponents will not just throw in the towel like one of their games in mid January

id take Conley over curry for playoff basketball any day of the week, month, or year
Click to expand...

Now that's an adjustment by Kerr and the 3's starting falling.

Better team took care of business on the road by a big margin.

Wonder if all the nay-sayers jump ship.
 
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