Drydene 400 Preview and Best Bet
NASCAR Cup Series: Drydene 400
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (FS1) at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware
Race Info
NASCAR’s Cup Series continues this coming Sunday with the Drydene 400, which will take place at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware.
For this event, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps.
There are three stages for this event.
Stage 1 will require 120 laps.
Stage 2 is likewise 120 laps-long.
Stage 3, the final stage, requires 160 more laps.
Just like in previous weeks, an entry list has been published for this event.
So barring some unforeseen circumstances, we already know who will compete in this event.
Moreover, the starting lineup gets determined by a formula since there is no qualifying (or practice, for that matter).
We already had at least an approximate idea of what the starting lineup would look like before it was released on Wednesday morning.
Track Info
Dover’s concrete, oval racetrack is one mile long, which is also why the track is known as “The Monster Mile.”
So in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.
Three additional observations about the track further explain why it is called “The Monster Mile.”
The way this track is built, higher speeds are encouraged.
There is a relatively significant level of banking on this track.
While the straights are banked at nine degrees — which is a lot for a straightaway — the turns are banked at 24 degrees.
Drivers will use the banking to collect more momentum in order to reach higher speeds.
Moreover, the track is known for containing narrow spaces in which passing is more difficult.
Higher speeds and narrow spaces constitute a strong recipe for crashes.
Thirdly, this nickname was given as a result of the track’s toughness on cars.
It must be said that starting position is not a make-or-break factor.
For example, the last winner at this track (Kevin Harvick), started out in 17th place.
Still, given its narrowness and the general difficulty that drivers have in passing on this track, a strong starting position for the drivers that we like should compel us to increase our wager size.
Drivers To Avoid
One driver to avoid investing in on Sunday is Ryan Blaney.
Blaney’s average finishing position at Dover is significantly worse than his average starting position.
This disparity indicates that drivers reliably outcompete and pass Blaney at this track.
At Dover, he has twice as many finishes outside the top 20 than inside the top 10.
Never finishing better than eighth at Dover, Blaney tends to have one of his worse performances of the season at this track.
Kyle Busch may seen like an attractive option given his recently strong performances this season.
But historically, Busch is very hit-or-miss at this track, frequently alternating between finishing in the top 10 and finishing outside the top 10.
There are more consistent options out there than Busch.
Another driver to avoid betting on — whether to win or in match-up betting — is Brad Keselowski.
Keselowski has failed to finish stronger than eighth in any of his last five tries at Dover.
His form this season fails to justify any hope that he will improve upon this trend.
This season, Keselowski remains unable to demonstrate any consistent measure of success. Most recently, he finished 24th at Darlington.
Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.
As measured by average driver rating since February 2018, both Harvick and Truex Jr. are by far the strongest candidates to succeed at Dover.
Both are consistently strong in Dover. Harvick has six straight top-six finishes at Dover, including two wins. Truex Jr. has finished top-two four straight times here.
While you should look to back each driver in match-up betting, it’s hard to imagine either one winning.
Harvick won the last race at Dover and Truex Jr. won the last race this season. It is statistically unlikely, however, to win back-to-back in any sense of the word.
My Guy
I like Chase Elliott to win on Sunday.
This season, Elliott is finding his groove, having finished fifth at Kansas and then seventh at Darlington, even though he has a bad history at Darlington.
Despite suffering an accident in his most recent race at Dover and engine trouble in an earlier attempt, Elliott has a strong history at this track.
He has proven that he can win at Dover. With seven career top-five finishes in 10 tries here, Elliott will win again on Sunday.
Best Bet: Elliott To Win (Odds TBA)
NASCAR Cup Series: Drydene 400
Sunday, May 16, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (FS1) at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware
Race Info
NASCAR’s Cup Series continues this coming Sunday with the Drydene 400, which will take place at Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware.
For this event, drivers must complete a total of 400 laps.
There are three stages for this event.
Stage 1 will require 120 laps.
Stage 2 is likewise 120 laps-long.
Stage 3, the final stage, requires 160 more laps.
Just like in previous weeks, an entry list has been published for this event.
So barring some unforeseen circumstances, we already know who will compete in this event.
Moreover, the starting lineup gets determined by a formula since there is no qualifying (or practice, for that matter).
We already had at least an approximate idea of what the starting lineup would look like before it was released on Wednesday morning.
Track Info
Dover’s concrete, oval racetrack is one mile long, which is also why the track is known as “The Monster Mile.”
So in completing 400 laps, drivers will have accumulated 400 miles.
Three additional observations about the track further explain why it is called “The Monster Mile.”
The way this track is built, higher speeds are encouraged.
There is a relatively significant level of banking on this track.
While the straights are banked at nine degrees — which is a lot for a straightaway — the turns are banked at 24 degrees.
Drivers will use the banking to collect more momentum in order to reach higher speeds.
Moreover, the track is known for containing narrow spaces in which passing is more difficult.
Higher speeds and narrow spaces constitute a strong recipe for crashes.
Thirdly, this nickname was given as a result of the track’s toughness on cars.
It must be said that starting position is not a make-or-break factor.
For example, the last winner at this track (Kevin Harvick), started out in 17th place.
Still, given its narrowness and the general difficulty that drivers have in passing on this track, a strong starting position for the drivers that we like should compel us to increase our wager size.
Drivers To Avoid
One driver to avoid investing in on Sunday is Ryan Blaney.
Blaney’s average finishing position at Dover is significantly worse than his average starting position.
This disparity indicates that drivers reliably outcompete and pass Blaney at this track.
At Dover, he has twice as many finishes outside the top 20 than inside the top 10.
Never finishing better than eighth at Dover, Blaney tends to have one of his worse performances of the season at this track.
Kyle Busch may seen like an attractive option given his recently strong performances this season.
But historically, Busch is very hit-or-miss at this track, frequently alternating between finishing in the top 10 and finishing outside the top 10.
There are more consistent options out there than Busch.
Another driver to avoid betting on — whether to win or in match-up betting — is Brad Keselowski.
Keselowski has failed to finish stronger than eighth in any of his last five tries at Dover.
His form this season fails to justify any hope that he will improve upon this trend.
This season, Keselowski remains unable to demonstrate any consistent measure of success. Most recently, he finished 24th at Darlington.
Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.
As measured by average driver rating since February 2018, both Harvick and Truex Jr. are by far the strongest candidates to succeed at Dover.
Both are consistently strong in Dover. Harvick has six straight top-six finishes at Dover, including two wins. Truex Jr. has finished top-two four straight times here.
While you should look to back each driver in match-up betting, it’s hard to imagine either one winning.
Harvick won the last race at Dover and Truex Jr. won the last race this season. It is statistically unlikely, however, to win back-to-back in any sense of the word.
My Guy
I like Chase Elliott to win on Sunday.
This season, Elliott is finding his groove, having finished fifth at Kansas and then seventh at Darlington, even though he has a bad history at Darlington.
Despite suffering an accident in his most recent race at Dover and engine trouble in an earlier attempt, Elliott has a strong history at this track.
He has proven that he can win at Dover. With seven career top-five finishes in 10 tries here, Elliott will win again on Sunday.
Best Bet: Elliott To Win (Odds TBA)
