Dr. Robert's Wednesday Lean
DR BOB
Ball St. (-7.0) 33 CENTRAL MICH 30
04:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-19 - Stats Matchup
Unbeaten Ball State will get their toughest remaining test tonight in Mt. Pleasant against a Chippewas team that is pretty good offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but lacking on the defensive side of the ball (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Ball State is an offensive juggernaut that has averaged 7.2 yppl this season thanks the great passing of Nate Davis (9.0 yards per pass play) and the running of MiQuale Lewis (1273 yards at 5.9 ypr) and they should have no trouble scoring at will in this game while their solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed) keeps the Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas in check. My math model actually gives Ball State a 54% chance of covering the spread at -7 points but the situational analysis is pointing strongly the other way. Ball State applies to a very negative 5-41 ATS late season letdown situation while Central Michigan applies to a 103-46-2 ATS home momentum situation and a 55-19-2 ATS home underdog angle. The technical analysis is very strongly in favor of Central Michigan and I’ll lean with the Chippewas plus the points despite my math model favoring Ball State. I'll also lean with the Over in this game.
DR BOB
Ball St. (-7.0) 33 CENTRAL MICH 30
04:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-19 - Stats Matchup
Unbeaten Ball State will get their toughest remaining test tonight in Mt. Pleasant against a Chippewas team that is pretty good offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but lacking on the defensive side of the ball (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Ball State is an offensive juggernaut that has averaged 7.2 yppl this season thanks the great passing of Nate Davis (9.0 yards per pass play) and the running of MiQuale Lewis (1273 yards at 5.9 ypr) and they should have no trouble scoring at will in this game while their solid defense (5.2 yppl allowed) keeps the Dan LeFevour and the Chippewas in check. My math model actually gives Ball State a 54% chance of covering the spread at -7 points but the situational analysis is pointing strongly the other way. Ball State applies to a very negative 5-41 ATS late season letdown situation while Central Michigan applies to a 103-46-2 ATS home momentum situation and a 55-19-2 ATS home underdog angle. The technical analysis is very strongly in favor of Central Michigan and I’ll lean with the Chippewas plus the points despite my math model favoring Ball State. I'll also lean with the Over in this game.
