T
thedegenerate
Guest
i am sure you all know about him by now. here are his plays:
Ohio
Marshall
Ok St
S. Flo
NCST
Ark
UCLA
Neb
Haw
Ohio
Marshall
Ok St
S. Flo
NCST
Ark
UCLA
Neb
Haw
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Funny, Dr. Bob has been fucking with the screen (Don Best) for weeks now but I'm hearing news that Spiro (TheGreek) might be betting these himself (first perhaps?) or moving them for an Asian syndicate....
Anyone... Bueller? Bueller?
Anyone... Bueller? Bueller?
T
thedegenerate
Guest
heard about the Asian crew as well. i don't know.
living in costa Rica Rex??? wow
living in costa Rica Rex??? wow
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
been here 2 1/2 years. Love it. Thought it would be temporary but considering the issues with our Government, and the climate here, seriously considering a permanent stay....
T
thedegenerate
Guest
Hoops are your thing right? Blue Ribbon just came in the mail last week. Hoops is my strength.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
poker players just bet regular season baseball.
College footsies is my thing but college hoops is as well...
Got any recommended reads? My guy is delivering the mags this weekend and I need to tell him what to bring tomorrow....
College footsies is my thing but college hoops is as well...
Got any recommended reads? My guy is delivering the mags this weekend and I need to tell him what to bring tomorrow....
T
thedegenerate
Guest
always get the blue ribbon yearbook Rex. it is more than what one could ask for
blueribbonyearbook.com
blueribbonyearbook.com
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
For those interested...
College Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
No Carolina St. (+3) 27 MARYLAND 20
21-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
NC State is 14-2 ATS as an underdog away from home under coach Chuck Amato and the Wolfpack have become a much better team since sophomore Daniel Evans took over as the starting quarterback. Evans has started the last 3 games for NC State and he led upsets of Boston College and Florida State before losing 23-25 to 6-1 Wake Forest last week. Evans has been just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but that’s a huge improvement over former starter Marcus Stone and the Wolfpack have an outstanding rushing attack (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow just 4.0 yprp). NC State is 0.6 yards per play better than average in Evans’ 3 starts (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and they should feast on a soft Maryland defense that has surrendered 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. NC State has a huge advantage when they have the ball and they also have the edge when the Terrapins have possession. Maryland is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with starting QB Sam Hollenbach in the game (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and NC State is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). Maryland does have a 2 point edge in special teams and an advantage in projected turnovers but my math model favors NC State by 6 points in this game. In addition to the great line value the Wolfpack apply to a 45-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation as long as they are an underdog and they have a great track record as a road or neutral dog under Amato. So, I’ll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
NEBRASKA (+6.0) 26 Texas 24
21-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Nebraska qualifies in a number of good home momentum situations today while Texas applies to a road letdown situation. The Cornhuskers apply to a 183-91-7 ATS home momentum situation and a 75-25-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while Texas applies to a negative 33-74-1 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s high scoring win over Baylor. The 75-25-2 ATS situation is 23-3 ATS when intersecting with the 33-74-1 ATS situation that Texas qualifies in so this game is very strong technically and my research of past situational analysis gives Nebraska a 60% chance of covering at a fair line in this game based on the situation. Nebraska certainly has the talent on offense to score points in this game as the Huskers have averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. That attack is 0.3 yppl better than a Texas defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so Nebraska should score a good number of points. Nebraska’s one issue is an inconsistent defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl), but that unit has played better the last two weeks (4.8 yppl allowed to Iowa State and Kansas State teams that would combine for 5.2 yppl) and they have been very good at bending but not breaking given that they’ve allowed just 13.4 points per game despite allowing 5.0 yppl. Texas is 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), but the Cornhuskers are likely to play better than normal defensively. My math model forecasts only an 18 yard advantage for Texas in this game (368 total yards to 350 total yards), but the Longhorns do have a 4.9 points edge in special teams and the math favors Texas by 6 ½ points overall. So, the line is fair and Nebraska has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line. I’ll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
ARKANSAS (-19.5) 38 Mississippi 10
21-Oct-06 09:30 AM Pacific Time
Arkansas started the season 0-4 ATS, but the Razorbacks finally played up to their potential in a 27-10 win at #2 Auburn 2 weeks ago and I expect them to continue to play at a high level. Arkansas is 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively with freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain at the controls (he took over mid-way through game 2) and I don’t expect a mediocre Ole’ Miss defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) to slow the Hogs down much. Mississippi is also not good enough offensively (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) to consistently move the ball against a good Arkansas defense (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense) that is starting to play as well as I thought they’d play this season (they gave up just 3.6 yppl to Auburn). My math model favors Arkansas by 17 ½ points, but this Best Bet is based on a very strong 88-26-3 ATS home favorite momentum situation and a 207-110-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that combine to give Arkansas a 64% chance of covering at a fair line. The line has gone up on this game from an opening number of -15 points to -19 ½ points, but a 64% chance of covering at the fair line of -17 ½ points equates to a 59% play at -19 ½ points (and 58% at -20). I’ll take Arkansas for a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and I’ll make Arkansas a 3-Star at -18 points or less. Arkansas is a Strong Opinion at -20 ½ or -21 points</B>.
4 Star Selection
OHIO (-15.5) 35 Buffalo 7
21-Oct-06 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Ohio started the season playing well below expectations, but the Bobcats have posted back-to-back upset wins over Western Michigan and at Illinois and they qualify in a very good 55-15 ATS home favorite momentum situation. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in a bad spot after losing a high-scoring 31-38 affair to Miami-Ohio. Teams that lose high scoring games tend to be emotionally flat the next week and Buffalo applies to a negative 17-59-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Buffalo is also a horrible team that is 1.5 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 1.6 yppl worse than average defensively (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Ohio has been 1.0 yppl worse than average offensively with quarterback Austen Everson under center, but they have an advantage against Buffalo’s defense and the Bobcats are solid defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). My math model projects a 401 to 241 total yards advantage for Ohio and the Bobcats are excellent in special teams and should benefit from the good field position. Overall, my math model favors Ohio by 24 ½ points, so we have solid line value to go along with the strong situations. Ohio is a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, a 3-Star Best Bet from -17 ½ to -20 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 ½ and -21 points.
3 Star Selection
UCLA (+14) 18 NOTRE DAME 23
21-Oct-06 11:30 AM Pacific Time
When are people going to realize that Notre Dame is not nearly as good as the media makes them out to be? The Irish have only covered the spread once in 6 games this season and my math model is picking against them once again (I had Stanford as a Best Bet two weeks ago). Notre Dame has averaged just 5.4 yards per play this season while allowing 5.7 yppl and they are only 0.1 yppl better than average team after compensating for their schedule strength (0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense). UCLA is 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but the Bruins are 0.8 yppl better than average on defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit). The Bruins are playing with backup quarterback Patrick Cowen in place of injured starter Ben Olsen, but Cowen’s compensated passing numbers (4.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppp to an average quarterback) are better than Olsen’s compensated passing numbers (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp). My math model predicts the total yards pretty even in this game (Notre Dame has a 15 yard edge), but the Irish do have a 2.6 points advantage in projected turnovers and the math favors Notre Dame by just 4 ½ points overall. Cowan has had trouble speaking after suffering a blow to the throat in last week’s 10 point loss at Oregon, but he’s resting his voice all week and should be able to call signals come Saturday. The Bruins’ coaching staff is working on alternate ways to get the signals called if Cowan can’t speak (the center will probably call the signals and the Cowan will audible (so to speak) with hand signals. Regardless, I’ll take UCLA in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars from +13 ½ down to +11 points.
3 Star Selection
Marshall (+7) 25 UAB 23
21-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall is just 1-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS this season, but they are better than a 3-4 UAB team. The Thundering Herd have been hurt by a -9 turnover margin and 1.5 turnovers per game is about 8 points per game, which makes it tough to cover. I still expect Marshall to be negative in turnover margin going forward, but they aren’t likely to be nearly as negative as they’ve been so far, which make them an underrated team. Teams that are winless against the spread for the season are actually better than 50% ATS from game 6 on (including 57% ATS in game 6 or game 7), as most teams that are winless against the number through 5 or more games have simply had bad luck in the turnover department. Marshall is better than average offensively, averaged 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and the Herd should move the ball pretty well in this game against a UAB defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). UAB is better with Chris Williams entrenched as the full-time starter at quarterback (he split time with Sam Hunt earlier in the season), but the Blazers are still 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively. Marshall is 0.9 yppl worse than average on defense, so UAB has a 0.5 yppl advantage when they have the ball, which is just slightly better than the 0.4 yppl advantage that Marshall’s offense enjoys in this game over the Blazers’ defense. UAB does have a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers, but Marshall has a bigger edge in special teams and my math model favors the Thundering Herd by 1 point in this game. UAB is coming off a 33-34 loss as a road favorite at Rice and teams that lose high scoring road games generally have trouble bouncing back the next week as a favorite. In fact, the Blazers apply to a negative 46-92-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. UAB is also not nearly as good as a favorite under coach Watson Brown (17-25 ATS) as they are as an underdog (28-16-1 ATS) and the Blazers are 3-10 ATS as a home favorite following a loss. I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
OKLAHOMA ST. (-3.0) 36 Texas A&M 23
21-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Texas A&M looks to be a bit overrated after beating Missouri last week, especially considering that the Aggies were out-played in that game 5.4 yards per play to 6.7 yppl for Missouri (they won because of 3 Missouri fumbles). Texas A&M is 6-1 straight up and they’ve out-gained their opponents 6.1 yppl to 5.1 yppl, but those opponents would combine to average just 4.7 yppl and allow 6.0 yppl to an average team – so the Aggies are actually 0.3 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is 0.4 yppl better than average from scrimmage thanks to an explosive offense that has averaged 7.1 yppl when Bobby Reid is under center (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). The Cowboys are 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.7 yppl), but they are 0.7 yppl better than average overall from the line of scrimmage and my math model projects Oklahoma State with a 452 yards to 380 yards advantage in this game. The Cowboys also have one of my best special teams ratings and they are a few points better than A&M’s good special teams. Overall the math model favors the Cowboys by 12 ½ points and a more conservative math tool I use favors Oklahoma State by 9 points. Either way, the line value is in favor of Oklahoma State and the Cowboys apply to a very good 183-91-7 ATS home momentum situation while Texas A&M is just 4-14 ATS in games away from home under coach Franchione. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars from -3 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
Hawaii (-18.5) 62 NEW MEXICO ST. 34
21-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
I mentioned last week in my Hawaii at Fresno State analysis that the Rainbow Warriors had the best offensive team in the nation. Scoring 68 points on the road against a pretty solid Fresno State defense certainly proved my point. Hawaii is averaging an incredible 8.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. My calculator nearly broke when I started to figure out how many points the Warriors would score against a New Mexico State defense that ranks as the worst in Division 1A football, allowing 6.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yppl against an average defensive team. In 4 games against Division 1A teams the Aggies have given up 8.0 yppl and 38 points per game against teams that would average only 5.2 yppl and 25 points per game against an average team. Making matters worse for New Mexico State is that they are particularly bad defending the pass (8.8 yards per pass play against teams that would average only 4.5 yppp against an average team) and Hawaii throws the ball 73% of the time. My math model projects 698 total yards at 11.4 yppl for Hawaii in this game and it could be more given that Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan has completed a higher percentage of his passes in each game this season, which is tough to do considering he completed 68.2% in the opener at Alabama (then 68.6%, 69.4%, 73.2%, 76.6%, and 82.1% last week). New Mexico State does have a decent offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl) and their ball control pass attack generates 81 plays per game, so they should score a pretty good number of points against a sub-par Hawaii defense that has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team. My math model projects 7.0 yppl and 35 points for New Mexico State in this game, but Hawaii should score on all but perhaps one possession in this game and the math forecasts 61.5 points for the Warriors. Aside from my math model favoring Hawaii by 26 ½ points, the Aggies apply to a 49-95-3 ATS negative momentum situation and +20 points or less. New Mexico State caught Boise State in a negative situation last week and managed to cover the big spread, but the situation is against the Aggies today and Hawaii should win by 3 touchdowns or more. I’ll take Hawaii in a 3-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less and for 2-Stars from -18 ½ to -20 points. I usually don’t like going Over on totals this high, but I have to consider the Over as a Strong Opinion at 76 points or less.
College Strong Opinions
South Carolina (-3.5) 30 VANDERBILT 20
21-Oct-06 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset win at Georgia last week as a 14 point dog and the Commodores are due for a letdown this week. Vandy applies to a 37-77-1 ATS home underdog letdown situation that is based on their upset win and the record is 4-21 ATS if the team won as a road dog of 14 points or more the previous week. The Gamecocks have been much better with Syvelle Newton at quarterback the past 4 games, averaging 6.4 yards per play with Newton at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Vanderbilt is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense), so South Carolina should move the ball pretty well. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks defense rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average and Vandy is average offensively with starting quarterback Chris Nickson in the game. South Carolina does have a solid edge in special teams and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 3 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation going against Vanderbilt has a 57% chance of working at a fair line, but South Carolina’s chance of covering goes up significantly at -3 points rather than -3 ½ points. So, I’ll consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -3 ½ or -4 points and I’d take South Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Iowa (+13.5) 17 MICHIGAN 24
21-Oct-06 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Iowa is coming off a shocking loss to Indiana, but I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back with a strong effort this week. Iowa is 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games the week after a loss, including 10-0 ATS more recently, and the Hawkeyes are still a good team. Iowa has been 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively with Drew Tate at quarterback (he misses the Syracuse game), averaging 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, and they are still 0.8 yppl better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) despite last week’s poor effort. Michigan is one of the top teams in the nation this season, rating at 0.7 yppl better than average on offense for the season and an incredible 1.5 yppl better than average defensively. However, the loss of star receiver Mario Manningham downgrades the offense significantly. Manningham missed last week’s game and is out indefinitely with a bad knee and replacing his 22.0 yards per catch average will not be easy considering that the other two top wide receivers combine to average just 12.9 ypc. Michigan is 2.1 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average team), but they were just 1.0 yppp better than average last week against Penn State, averaging 6.0 yppp against a Nittany Lions’ defense that would allow 5.0 yppp at home to an average team. Michigan’s rush attack is just 0.1 yprp better than average (4.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) and the Wolverines are just 0.3 yppl better than average offensively without Manningham’s big play ability. My math model favors Michigan by 12 ½ points and Iowa applies to a decent 47-19-3 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on their loss as a road favorite last week. With Iowa even more likely to bounce back given their record after a loss, the Hawkeyes look like a solid play. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +13 or +13 ½ points and I’ll make Iowa a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Tulsa (-12.5) 35 MEMPHIS 16
21-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
I was thrilled to see Memphis as a double-digit favorite last week and I eagerly took the points with Arkansas State for an outright upset winner. Memphis lost that game despite being +3 in turnover margin and the Tigers are likely to have to wait at least another week to get their first spread win of the season. The Tigers are decent offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but they are 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) and have gotten worse since head coach Tommy West fired defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn a few weeks ago. Tulsa is a very good team that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors the Golden Hurricane by 16 points, so the line is starting to catch up with how bad Memphis is (and how good Tulsa is). However, teams that lose straight up as a big home favorite are bad bets the next week at home, and the Tigers apply to a negative 13-48 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Tulsa has a tendency to letdown a bit against bad teams and Memphis is 5-1 ATS as a home dog under West (although 0-1 this year), so I’ll resist making Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -11 points or less.
S. Florida (+1.5) 24 CINCINNATI 19
22-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
South Florida came through for me last week at North Carolina and the Bulls look like a pretty good play again this week. USF is good on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl). Cincinnati is just 3-4 straight up, but the Bearcats have faced a tough schedule of teams this season and have posted decent numbers. Cincy is 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense with starting quarterback Dustin Grutza in the game (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and the Bearcats are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). South Florida is better from the line of scrimmage overall and the Bulls also have better special teams. Overall, the math favors South Florida by 1 point in this game and Cincinnati is in a bit of a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Louisville last week. Teams that come close to an upset win as a big underdog tend to letdown the next week and Cincy applies to a negative 151-250-4 ATS situation that is based on that premise. That situation is not strong enough to make South Florida a Best Bet in this game unless I get a bit more line value, but I’ll consider South Florida a Strong Opinion in this game at pick or better and I’d make South Florida a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Definitions:
ATS means Against The Spread
yprp is Yards per rushing play and does not include sacks
yppp is yards per pass play and does include sacks
All College Statistics include only games versus Division 1A opponents unless otherwise stated.
College Math Model Predictions
Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis.
Listed alphabetically by home team
TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Miami Ohio25.8-66, 2.5437.7-240, 6.3663.5-305, 4.810.911.1721.8+7.50.556Akron28.3-141, 4.9933.4-231, 6.9261.7-372, 6.030.801.0525.0-7.50.444Oregon St.27.5-111, 4.0332.7-190, 5.8260.2-301, 5.001.000.9721.2-2.50.583Arizona25.4-91, 3.5933.3-129, 3.8858.7-220, 3.750.801.1212.3+2.50.417Stanford28.0-107, 3.8332.0-94, 2.9460.0-201, 3.360.950.936.2+23.00.435Arizona St.39.6-249, 6.2925.1-158, 6.3064.7-407, 6.290.800.8134.3-23.00.565Mississippi33.4-143, 4.2729.9-107, 3.5863.3-250, 3.940.791.0214.6+19.50.525Arkansas43.4-289, 6.6522.3-146, 6.5465.7-434, 6.610.800.5932.2-19.50.475North Texas33.0-121, 3.6825.4-83, 3.2658.4-204, 3.500.841.0710.0+10.00.461Arkansas St.38.7-192, 4.9624.3-124, 5.1063.0-316, 5.010.800.8023.0-10.00.539TCU36.7-190, 5.1826.9-178, 6.6163.6-368, 5.780.870.7424.5-12.50.487Army31.0-71, 2.2830.8-135, 4.3761.8-205, 3.320.801.0413.0+12.50.513Tulane25.9-131, 5.0537.7-142, 3.7663.6-273, 4.290.921.188.6+31.50.516Auburn37.8-212, 5.6029.2-206, 7.0667.0-418, 6.240.800.4738.9-31.50.484Western Mich31.0-141, 4.5630.5-206, 6.7561.5-347, 5.650.841.1424.2-3.50.478Ball St.24.7-89, 3.6033.4-237, 7.0958.1-326, 5.610.801.4122.4+3.50.522Kansas32.9-152, 4.6336.2-169, 4.6769.1-321, 4.650.891.6219.8+3.50.390Baylor15.8-74, 4.6752.1-333, 6.3967.9-407, 5.990.801.2431.8-3.50.611UNLV23.7-88, 3.7142.4-194, 4.5866.1-282, 4.270.851.4413.6+28.50.474BYU33.1-151, 4.5536.8-373, 10.1369.9-523, 7.490.800.7844.1-28.50.526TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Washington32.3-158, 4.8832.1-134, 4.1964.4-292, 4.540.831.0715.7+23.50.491California33.2-167, 5.0233.6-323, 9.6266.8-490, 7.330.801.0739.9-23.50.509Rice30.8-166, 5.3934.9-243, 6.9565.7-409, 6.220.781.1825.1+5.50.447Central Florida36.0-241, 6.6928.8-185, 6.4164.8-425, 6.570.800.7434.7-5.50.553Bowling Green39.4-168, 4.2729.7-181, 6.0869.1-349, 5.050.991.0219.6+7.00.460Central Mich31.2-145, 4.6534.7-211, 6.0965.9-356, 5.410.801.2329.7-7.00.540South Florida31.4-129, 4.1130.3-184, 6.0761.7-313, 5.070.911.1021.6+1.50.531Cincinnati35.1-133, 3.8029.5-181, 6.1464.6-315, 4.870.800.9820.7-1.50.469Georgia Tech33.7-136, 4.0529.4-125, 4.2663.1-262, 4.150.880.9717.0+7.50.445Clemson37.9-191, 5.0328.0-216, 7.7065.9-406, 6.160.800.8928.7-7.50.555West Virginia49.6-369, 7.4413.9-91, 6.5263.5-460, 7.240.800.6639.5-23.00.577Connecticut28.3-113, 3.9833.6-150, 4.4661.9-262, 4.240.800.9210.6+23.00.423Miami Fla30.8-126, 4.1030.8-186, 6.0361.6-312, 5.070.850.8522.3-17.50.405Duke28.4-52, 1.8232.3-172, 5.3460.7-224, 3.690.800.9512.1+17.50.595SMU35.8-151, 4.2328.0-149, 5.3263.8-300, 4.710.940.9720.6+6.00.504East Carolina28.2-100, 3.5439.7-285, 7.1967.9-385, 5.670.800.6726.3-6.00.496Toledo31.1-147, 4.7337.3-173, 4.6568.4-321, 4.690.861.3019.00.00.399Eastern Mich32.9-165, 5.0230.6-179, 5.8563.5-344, 5.420.801.1426.80.00.601UL Lafayette40.9-259, 6.3419.7-84, 4.2760.6-343, 5.670.820.6825.6-9.00.438Florida Atl.29.8-124, 4.1531.0-220, 7.1160.8-344, 5.660.800.8021.4+9.00.562TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Boston College27.1-84, 3.0938.2-221, 5.7865.3-305, 4.660.891.1421.9+6.50.585Florida St.28.5-104, 3.6438.8-231, 5.9567.3-335, 4.970.801.2321.9-6.50.415Mississippi St.28.2-84, 2.9831.2-139, 4.4459.4-223, 3.750.911.068.2+18.00.462Georgia33.3-143, 4.2827.2-203, 7.4860.5-346, 5.720.800.9129.1-18.00.538Texas El Paso26.5-99, 3.7236.2-299, 8.2762.7-398, 6.350.831.6126.9+6.00.473Houston26.9-139, 5.1540.0-315, 7.8766.9-453, 6.780.800.8334.9-6.00.527Boise St.38.5-241, 6.2523.1-193, 8.3461.6-433, 7.030.850.7538.4-21.00.586Idaho28.0-88, 3.1631.4-183, 5.8459.4-272, 4.580.801.4310.7+21.00.414Texas Tech17.8-108, 6.0646.6-281, 6.0264.4-388, 6.030.811.2526.6-2.00.517Iowa St.31.5-129, 4.1031.5-198, 6.2763.0-327, 5.190.800.9423.3+2.00.483Utah St.36.9-175, 4.7424.3-161, 6.6161.2-336, 5.480.970.7722.7+6.50.527Louisiana Tech29.7-133, 4.4732.7-247, 7.5562.4-380, 6.080.800.9927.1-6.50.473Fresno St.29.9-110, 3.6730.2-117, 3.8960.1-227, 3.780.831.198.4+32.50.502LSU33.4-143, 4.2931.1-341, 10.9864.5-485, 7.520.800.5340.8-32.50.498No Carolina St.32.0-208, 6.4928.5-198, 6.9460.5-405, 6.700.890.9028.1+3.00.614Maryland35.0-174, 4.9624.9-146, 5.8559.9-319, 5.330.800.7422.3-3.00.386Tulsa36.9-189, 5.1228.6-259, 9.0765.5-448, 6.840.820.7733.4-12.50.548Memphis28.6-96, 3.3531.8-183, 5.7660.4-279, 4.620.801.0917.2+12.50.452Iowa25.2-78, 3.1037.7-182, 4.8262.9-260, 4.130.921.0714.1+13.50.516Michigan40.9-173, 4.2427.1-175, 6.4768.0-349, 5.130.800.6526.4-13.50.484TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Kansas St.23.5-102, 4.3340.4-151, 3.7363.9-252, 3.950.831.5314.7+15.00.588Missouri33.7-149, 4.4132.1-165, 5.1365.8-313, 4.760.801.0422.9-15.00.412Texas33.2-160, 4.8327.2-208, 7.6460.4-368, 6.100.850.8228.2-6.00.509Nebraska33.1-140, 4.2428.2-210, 7.4461.3-350, 5.710.800.8321.5+6.00.491San Jose St.32.7-192, 5.8828.2-186, 6.6160.9-379, 6.220.940.9625.6+12.50.590Nevada38.1-226, 5.9224.6-193, 7.8662.7-419, 6.680.800.9231.2-12.50.410Utah31.1-133, 4.2932.1-164, 5.1263.2-298, 4.710.891.1419.7-6.00.457New Mexico29.8-95, 3.1832.0-167, 5.2161.8-261, 4.230.801.1817.0+6.00.543Hawaii16.7-125, 7.5044.6-573, 12.8561.3-698, 11.390.931.0561.5-18.50.604New Mexico St.17.9-63, 3.5162.8-499, 7.9580.7-562, 6.970.801.1535.0+18.50.396Temple26.7-104, 3.8933.6-174, 5.1860.3-278, 4.610.921.069.6+33.50.484Northern Ill39.8-332, 8.3322.1-158, 7.1561.9-490, 7.910.800.5444.3-33.50.516Michigan St.34.3-163, 4.7429.5-209, 7.0963.8-372, 5.830.821.0125.8-7.50.503Northwestern34.2-155, 4.5425.3-120, 4.7659.5-276, 4.630.800.8518.1+7.50.497UCLA31.3-135, 4.3032.0-168, 5.2663.3-303, 4.790.861.1018.5+14.00.624Notre Dame25.4-102, 4.0138.2-216, 5.6563.6-318, 5.000.800.6623.0-14.00.377Buffalo29.8-101, 3.3833.5-140, 4.1763.3-240, 3.800.901.019.5+15.50.380Ohio37.7-223, 5.9225.4-178, 7.0163.1-401, 6.360.801.1134.2-15.50.620Indiana25.0-104, 4.1434.5-131, 3.7959.5-234, 3.940.941.138.1+31.00.471Ohio St.38.0-195, 5.1226.9-285, 10.5864.9-479, 7.380.800.4641.3-31.00.529TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Colorado36.4-189, 5.2022.6-95, 4.2159.0-284, 4.820.940.7916.5+14.00.547Oklahoma32.8-115, 3.5230.8-243, 7.9063.6-359, 5.640.801.0226.9-14.00.453Texas A&M36.5-194, 5.3125.1-186, 7.4161.6-380, 6.170.870.7423.3+3.00.374Oklahoma St.35.6-197, 5.5325.3-255, 10.0660.9-451, 7.410.800.6836.0-3.00.626Illinois32.7-148, 4.5329.7-127, 4.2962.4-276, 4.420.951.0012.0+17.50.466Penn St.34.6-174, 5.0330.0-199, 6.6364.6-373, 5.770.800.8632.1-17.50.534Rutgers36.3-164, 4.5322.3-96, 4.3158.6-261, 4.450.971.1514.2+6.50.430Pittsburgh32.6-114, 3.4926.7-231, 8.6759.3-345, 5.820.800.5226.1-6.50.570Wisconsin39.5-224, 5.6827.1-213, 7.8766.6-438, 6.570.950.5734.3-6.50.624Purdue27.1-141, 5.2235.0-173, 4.9462.1-314, 5.060.801.0818.3+6.50.377Air Force49.3-275, 5.5811.2-78, 6.9760.5-353, 5.840.900.3727.4-13.50.473San Diego St.33.5-118, 3.5124.2-175, 7.2457.7-293, 5.070.800.9416.0+13.50.527Louisville39.3-293, 7.4629.9-231, 7.7169.2-524, 7.570.910.5737.4-17.50.481Syracuse32.4-155, 4.7829.8-149, 5.0062.2-304, 4.890.800.6721.4+17.50.520Alabama32.8-123, 3.7626.1-150, 5.7558.9-273, 4.640.790.9114.5+11.00.427Tennessee31.5-138, 4.3728.7-255, 8.8960.2-393, 6.520.801.0631.1-11.00.573Marshall33.6-208, 6.1926.0-135, 5.2159.6-343, 5.760.941.0024.8+7.00.601UAB37.0-172, 4.6424.0-192, 7.9961.0-363, 5.960.800.6724.0-7.00.399Middle Tenn32.5-129, 3.9828.6-149, 5.2061.1-278, 4.550.911.0519.4-3.50.453UL Monroe30.0-104, 3.4531.0-205, 6.6161.0-308, 5.060.801.0319.5+3.50.547TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%South Carolina31.1-135, 4.3329.8-237, 7.9560.9-372, 6.100.901.0727.2-3.50.500Vanderbilt36.4-202, 5.5424.1-153, 6.3560.5-355, 5.860.800.9923.7+3.50.500North Carolina31.6-155, 4.9230.4-147, 4.8462.0-303, 4.880.801.1717.0+6.50.442Virginia31.3-177, 5.6530.0-182, 6.0561.3-358, 5.850.800.7128.0-6.50.559Southern Miss33.9-117, 3.4527.6-139, 5.0561.5-256, 4.170.870.9812.0+17.50.512Virginia Tech27.9-125, 4.4934.2-224, 6.5662.1-350, 5.630.801.2128.6-17.50.488Oregon34.0-206, 6.0734.3-224, 6.5268.3-430, 6.300.921.1631.3-3.50.541Washington St.33.5-194, 5.7932.9-164, 4.9866.4-358, 5.390.800.8124.7+3.50.459Colorado St.30.8-86, 2.7829.6-119, 4.0160.4-204, 3.380.870.9911.3+3.50.408Wyoming31.3-110, 3.5232.4-208, 6.4163.7-318, 4.990.800.9421.9-3.50.592Key to Math System Predictions:
Rushing = Run Plays - Rushing Yards, Yards Per Rush (ypr)
Passing = Pass Plays - Passing Yards, Yards Per Pass Play (ypp, includes sacks)
Total = Total Plays - Total Yards, Yards Per Play
Fum = Fumbles
Ints = Interceptions
Pts = Predicted Points Scored
Line = Point Spread
% = Chance to Cover Spread
College Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
NC State is 14-2 ATS as an underdog away from home under coach Chuck Amato and the Wolfpack have become a much better team since sophomore Daniel Evans took over as the starting quarterback. Evans has started the last 3 games for NC State and he led upsets of Boston College and Florida State before losing 23-25 to 6-1 Wake Forest last week. Evans has been just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback), but that’s a huge improvement over former starter Marcus Stone and the Wolfpack have an outstanding rushing attack (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow just 4.0 yprp). NC State is 0.6 yards per play better than average in Evans’ 3 starts (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and they should feast on a soft Maryland defense that has surrendered 5.8 yppl this season to teams that would average just 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. NC State has a huge advantage when they have the ball and they also have the edge when the Terrapins have possession. Maryland is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with starting QB Sam Hollenbach in the game (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and NC State is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). Maryland does have a 2 point edge in special teams and an advantage in projected turnovers but my math model favors NC State by 6 points in this game. In addition to the great line value the Wolfpack apply to a 45-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation as long as they are an underdog and they have a great track record as a road or neutral dog under Amato. So, I’ll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars from +2 ½ to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 09:00 AM Pacific Time
Nebraska qualifies in a number of good home momentum situations today while Texas applies to a road letdown situation. The Cornhuskers apply to a 183-91-7 ATS home momentum situation and a 75-25-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while Texas applies to a negative 33-74-1 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s high scoring win over Baylor. The 75-25-2 ATS situation is 23-3 ATS when intersecting with the 33-74-1 ATS situation that Texas qualifies in so this game is very strong technically and my research of past situational analysis gives Nebraska a 60% chance of covering at a fair line in this game based on the situation. Nebraska certainly has the talent on offense to score points in this game as the Huskers have averaged 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. That attack is 0.3 yppl better than a Texas defense that rates at 0.6 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so Nebraska should score a good number of points. Nebraska’s one issue is an inconsistent defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl), but that unit has played better the last two weeks (4.8 yppl allowed to Iowa State and Kansas State teams that would combine for 5.2 yppl) and they have been very good at bending but not breaking given that they’ve allowed just 13.4 points per game despite allowing 5.0 yppl. Texas is 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), but the Cornhuskers are likely to play better than normal defensively. My math model forecasts only an 18 yard advantage for Texas in this game (368 total yards to 350 total yards), but the Longhorns do have a 4.9 points edge in special teams and the math favors Texas by 6 ½ points overall. So, the line is fair and Nebraska has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line. I’ll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 09:30 AM Pacific Time
Arkansas started the season 0-4 ATS, but the Razorbacks finally played up to their potential in a 27-10 win at #2 Auburn 2 weeks ago and I expect them to continue to play at a high level. Arkansas is 1.2 yards per play better than average offensively with freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain at the controls (he took over mid-way through game 2) and I don’t expect a mediocre Ole’ Miss defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) to slow the Hogs down much. Mississippi is also not good enough offensively (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) to consistently move the ball against a good Arkansas defense (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense) that is starting to play as well as I thought they’d play this season (they gave up just 3.6 yppl to Auburn). My math model favors Arkansas by 17 ½ points, but this Best Bet is based on a very strong 88-26-3 ATS home favorite momentum situation and a 207-110-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that combine to give Arkansas a 64% chance of covering at a fair line. The line has gone up on this game from an opening number of -15 points to -19 ½ points, but a 64% chance of covering at the fair line of -17 ½ points equates to a 59% play at -19 ½ points (and 58% at -20). I’ll take Arkansas for a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and I’ll make Arkansas a 3-Star at -18 points or less. Arkansas is a Strong Opinion at -20 ½ or -21 points</B>.
4 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 11:00 AM Pacific Time
Ohio started the season playing well below expectations, but the Bobcats have posted back-to-back upset wins over Western Michigan and at Illinois and they qualify in a very good 55-15 ATS home favorite momentum situation. Buffalo, meanwhile, is in a bad spot after losing a high-scoring 31-38 affair to Miami-Ohio. Teams that lose high scoring games tend to be emotionally flat the next week and Buffalo applies to a negative 17-59-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Buffalo is also a horrible team that is 1.5 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and 1.6 yppl worse than average defensively (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Ohio has been 1.0 yppl worse than average offensively with quarterback Austen Everson under center, but they have an advantage against Buffalo’s defense and the Bobcats are solid defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). My math model projects a 401 to 241 total yards advantage for Ohio and the Bobcats are excellent in special teams and should benefit from the good field position. Overall, my math model favors Ohio by 24 ½ points, so we have solid line value to go along with the strong situations. Ohio is a 4-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less, a 3-Star Best Bet from -17 ½ to -20 points and a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 ½ and -21 points.
3 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 11:30 AM Pacific Time
When are people going to realize that Notre Dame is not nearly as good as the media makes them out to be? The Irish have only covered the spread once in 6 games this season and my math model is picking against them once again (I had Stanford as a Best Bet two weeks ago). Notre Dame has averaged just 5.4 yards per play this season while allowing 5.7 yppl and they are only 0.1 yppl better than average team after compensating for their schedule strength (0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense). UCLA is 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), but the Bruins are 0.8 yppl better than average on defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit). The Bruins are playing with backup quarterback Patrick Cowen in place of injured starter Ben Olsen, but Cowen’s compensated passing numbers (4.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppp to an average quarterback) are better than Olsen’s compensated passing numbers (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp). My math model predicts the total yards pretty even in this game (Notre Dame has a 15 yard edge), but the Irish do have a 2.6 points advantage in projected turnovers and the math favors Notre Dame by just 4 ½ points overall. Cowan has had trouble speaking after suffering a blow to the throat in last week’s 10 point loss at Oregon, but he’s resting his voice all week and should be able to call signals come Saturday. The Bruins’ coaching staff is working on alternate ways to get the signals called if Cowan can’t speak (the center will probably call the signals and the Cowan will audible (so to speak) with hand signals. Regardless, I’ll take UCLA in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars from +13 ½ down to +11 points.
3 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Marshall is just 1-5 straight up and 0-5 ATS this season, but they are better than a 3-4 UAB team. The Thundering Herd have been hurt by a -9 turnover margin and 1.5 turnovers per game is about 8 points per game, which makes it tough to cover. I still expect Marshall to be negative in turnover margin going forward, but they aren’t likely to be nearly as negative as they’ve been so far, which make them an underrated team. Teams that are winless against the spread for the season are actually better than 50% ATS from game 6 on (including 57% ATS in game 6 or game 7), as most teams that are winless against the number through 5 or more games have simply had bad luck in the turnover department. Marshall is better than average offensively, averaged 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and the Herd should move the ball pretty well in this game against a UAB defense that is 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense). UAB is better with Chris Williams entrenched as the full-time starter at quarterback (he split time with Sam Hunt earlier in the season), but the Blazers are still 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively. Marshall is 0.9 yppl worse than average on defense, so UAB has a 0.5 yppl advantage when they have the ball, which is just slightly better than the 0.4 yppl advantage that Marshall’s offense enjoys in this game over the Blazers’ defense. UAB does have a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers, but Marshall has a bigger edge in special teams and my math model favors the Thundering Herd by 1 point in this game. UAB is coming off a 33-34 loss as a road favorite at Rice and teams that lose high scoring road games generally have trouble bouncing back the next week as a favorite. In fact, the Blazers apply to a negative 46-92-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. UAB is also not nearly as good as a favorite under coach Watson Brown (17-25 ATS) as they are as an underdog (28-16-1 ATS) and the Blazers are 3-10 ATS as a home favorite following a loss. I’ll take Marshall in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Texas A&M looks to be a bit overrated after beating Missouri last week, especially considering that the Aggies were out-played in that game 5.4 yards per play to 6.7 yppl for Missouri (they won because of 3 Missouri fumbles). Texas A&M is 6-1 straight up and they’ve out-gained their opponents 6.1 yppl to 5.1 yppl, but those opponents would combine to average just 4.7 yppl and allow 6.0 yppl to an average team – so the Aggies are actually 0.3 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is 0.4 yppl better than average from scrimmage thanks to an explosive offense that has averaged 7.1 yppl when Bobby Reid is under center (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). The Cowboys are 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.7 yppl), but they are 0.7 yppl better than average overall from the line of scrimmage and my math model projects Oklahoma State with a 452 yards to 380 yards advantage in this game. The Cowboys also have one of my best special teams ratings and they are a few points better than A&M’s good special teams. Overall the math model favors the Cowboys by 12 ½ points and a more conservative math tool I use favors Oklahoma State by 9 points. Either way, the line value is in favor of Oklahoma State and the Cowboys apply to a very good 183-91-7 ATS home momentum situation while Texas A&M is just 4-14 ATS in games away from home under coach Franchione. I’ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 2-Stars from -3 ½ to -6 points.
2 Star Selection
21-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
I mentioned last week in my Hawaii at Fresno State analysis that the Rainbow Warriors had the best offensive team in the nation. Scoring 68 points on the road against a pretty solid Fresno State defense certainly proved my point. Hawaii is averaging an incredible 8.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. My calculator nearly broke when I started to figure out how many points the Warriors would score against a New Mexico State defense that ranks as the worst in Division 1A football, allowing 6.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yppl against an average defensive team. In 4 games against Division 1A teams the Aggies have given up 8.0 yppl and 38 points per game against teams that would average only 5.2 yppl and 25 points per game against an average team. Making matters worse for New Mexico State is that they are particularly bad defending the pass (8.8 yards per pass play against teams that would average only 4.5 yppp against an average team) and Hawaii throws the ball 73% of the time. My math model projects 698 total yards at 11.4 yppl for Hawaii in this game and it could be more given that Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan has completed a higher percentage of his passes in each game this season, which is tough to do considering he completed 68.2% in the opener at Alabama (then 68.6%, 69.4%, 73.2%, 76.6%, and 82.1% last week). New Mexico State does have a decent offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl) and their ball control pass attack generates 81 plays per game, so they should score a pretty good number of points against a sub-par Hawaii defense that has allowed 7.2 yards per pass play to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team. My math model projects 7.0 yppl and 35 points for New Mexico State in this game, but Hawaii should score on all but perhaps one possession in this game and the math forecasts 61.5 points for the Warriors. Aside from my math model favoring Hawaii by 26 ½ points, the Aggies apply to a 49-95-3 ATS negative momentum situation and +20 points or less. New Mexico State caught Boise State in a negative situation last week and managed to cover the big spread, but the situation is against the Aggies today and Hawaii should win by 3 touchdowns or more. I’ll take Hawaii in a 3-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less and for 2-Stars from -18 ½ to -20 points. I usually don’t like going Over on totals this high, but I have to consider the Over as a Strong Opinion at 76 points or less.
College Strong Opinions
South Carolina (-3.5) 30 VANDERBILT 20
21-Oct-06 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Vanderbilt is coming off an upset win at Georgia last week as a 14 point dog and the Commodores are due for a letdown this week. Vandy applies to a 37-77-1 ATS home underdog letdown situation that is based on their upset win and the record is 4-21 ATS if the team won as a road dog of 14 points or more the previous week. The Gamecocks have been much better with Syvelle Newton at quarterback the past 4 games, averaging 6.4 yards per play with Newton at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Vanderbilt is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense), so South Carolina should move the ball pretty well. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks defense rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average and Vandy is average offensively with starting quarterback Chris Nickson in the game. South Carolina does have a solid edge in special teams and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 3 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation going against Vanderbilt has a 57% chance of working at a fair line, but South Carolina’s chance of covering goes up significantly at -3 points rather than -3 ½ points. So, I’ll consider South Carolina a Strong Opinion at -3 ½ or -4 points and I’d take South Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Iowa (+13.5) 17 MICHIGAN 24
21-Oct-06 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Iowa is coming off a shocking loss to Indiana, but I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back with a strong effort this week. Iowa is 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games the week after a loss, including 10-0 ATS more recently, and the Hawkeyes are still a good team. Iowa has been 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively with Drew Tate at quarterback (he misses the Syracuse game), averaging 6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, and they are still 0.8 yppl better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) despite last week’s poor effort. Michigan is one of the top teams in the nation this season, rating at 0.7 yppl better than average on offense for the season and an incredible 1.5 yppl better than average defensively. However, the loss of star receiver Mario Manningham downgrades the offense significantly. Manningham missed last week’s game and is out indefinitely with a bad knee and replacing his 22.0 yards per catch average will not be easy considering that the other two top wide receivers combine to average just 12.9 ypc. Michigan is 2.1 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average team), but they were just 1.0 yppp better than average last week against Penn State, averaging 6.0 yppp against a Nittany Lions’ defense that would allow 5.0 yppp at home to an average team. Michigan’s rush attack is just 0.1 yprp better than average (4.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) and the Wolverines are just 0.3 yppl better than average offensively without Manningham’s big play ability. My math model favors Michigan by 12 ½ points and Iowa applies to a decent 47-19-3 ATS road bounce-back situation that is based on their loss as a road favorite last week. With Iowa even more likely to bounce back given their record after a loss, the Hawkeyes look like a solid play. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +13 or +13 ½ points and I’ll make Iowa a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Tulsa (-12.5) 35 MEMPHIS 16
21-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
I was thrilled to see Memphis as a double-digit favorite last week and I eagerly took the points with Arkansas State for an outright upset winner. Memphis lost that game despite being +3 in turnover margin and the Tigers are likely to have to wait at least another week to get their first spread win of the season. The Tigers are decent offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team), but they are 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl) and have gotten worse since head coach Tommy West fired defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn a few weeks ago. Tulsa is a very good team that rates at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors the Golden Hurricane by 16 points, so the line is starting to catch up with how bad Memphis is (and how good Tulsa is). However, teams that lose straight up as a big home favorite are bad bets the next week at home, and the Tigers apply to a negative 13-48 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Tulsa has a tendency to letdown a bit against bad teams and Memphis is 5-1 ATS as a home dog under West (although 0-1 this year), so I’ll resist making Tulsa a Best Bet. I’ll consider Tulsa a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line drops to -11 points or less.
S. Florida (+1.5) 24 CINCINNATI 19
22-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
South Florida came through for me last week at North Carolina and the Bulls look like a pretty good play again this week. USF is good on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yppl). Cincinnati is just 3-4 straight up, but the Bearcats have faced a tough schedule of teams this season and have posted decent numbers. Cincy is 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense with starting quarterback Dustin Grutza in the game (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and the Bearcats are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team). South Florida is better from the line of scrimmage overall and the Bulls also have better special teams. Overall, the math favors South Florida by 1 point in this game and Cincinnati is in a bit of a letdown spot after nearly upsetting Louisville last week. Teams that come close to an upset win as a big underdog tend to letdown the next week and Cincy applies to a negative 151-250-4 ATS situation that is based on that premise. That situation is not strong enough to make South Florida a Best Bet in this game unless I get a bit more line value, but I’ll consider South Florida a Strong Opinion in this game at pick or better and I’d make South Florida a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Definitions:
ATS means Against The Spread
yprp is Yards per rushing play and does not include sacks
yppp is yards per pass play and does include sacks
All College Statistics include only games versus Division 1A opponents unless otherwise stated.
College Math Model Predictions
Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis.
Listed alphabetically by home team
TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Miami Ohio25.8-66, 2.5437.7-240, 6.3663.5-305, 4.810.911.1721.8+7.50.556Akron28.3-141, 4.9933.4-231, 6.9261.7-372, 6.030.801.0525.0-7.50.444Oregon St.27.5-111, 4.0332.7-190, 5.8260.2-301, 5.001.000.9721.2-2.50.583Arizona25.4-91, 3.5933.3-129, 3.8858.7-220, 3.750.801.1212.3+2.50.417Stanford28.0-107, 3.8332.0-94, 2.9460.0-201, 3.360.950.936.2+23.00.435Arizona St.39.6-249, 6.2925.1-158, 6.3064.7-407, 6.290.800.8134.3-23.00.565Mississippi33.4-143, 4.2729.9-107, 3.5863.3-250, 3.940.791.0214.6+19.50.525Arkansas43.4-289, 6.6522.3-146, 6.5465.7-434, 6.610.800.5932.2-19.50.475North Texas33.0-121, 3.6825.4-83, 3.2658.4-204, 3.500.841.0710.0+10.00.461Arkansas St.38.7-192, 4.9624.3-124, 5.1063.0-316, 5.010.800.8023.0-10.00.539TCU36.7-190, 5.1826.9-178, 6.6163.6-368, 5.780.870.7424.5-12.50.487Army31.0-71, 2.2830.8-135, 4.3761.8-205, 3.320.801.0413.0+12.50.513Tulane25.9-131, 5.0537.7-142, 3.7663.6-273, 4.290.921.188.6+31.50.516Auburn37.8-212, 5.6029.2-206, 7.0667.0-418, 6.240.800.4738.9-31.50.484Western Mich31.0-141, 4.5630.5-206, 6.7561.5-347, 5.650.841.1424.2-3.50.478Ball St.24.7-89, 3.6033.4-237, 7.0958.1-326, 5.610.801.4122.4+3.50.522Kansas32.9-152, 4.6336.2-169, 4.6769.1-321, 4.650.891.6219.8+3.50.390Baylor15.8-74, 4.6752.1-333, 6.3967.9-407, 5.990.801.2431.8-3.50.611UNLV23.7-88, 3.7142.4-194, 4.5866.1-282, 4.270.851.4413.6+28.50.474BYU33.1-151, 4.5536.8-373, 10.1369.9-523, 7.490.800.7844.1-28.50.526TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Washington32.3-158, 4.8832.1-134, 4.1964.4-292, 4.540.831.0715.7+23.50.491California33.2-167, 5.0233.6-323, 9.6266.8-490, 7.330.801.0739.9-23.50.509Rice30.8-166, 5.3934.9-243, 6.9565.7-409, 6.220.781.1825.1+5.50.447Central Florida36.0-241, 6.6928.8-185, 6.4164.8-425, 6.570.800.7434.7-5.50.553Bowling Green39.4-168, 4.2729.7-181, 6.0869.1-349, 5.050.991.0219.6+7.00.460Central Mich31.2-145, 4.6534.7-211, 6.0965.9-356, 5.410.801.2329.7-7.00.540South Florida31.4-129, 4.1130.3-184, 6.0761.7-313, 5.070.911.1021.6+1.50.531Cincinnati35.1-133, 3.8029.5-181, 6.1464.6-315, 4.870.800.9820.7-1.50.469Georgia Tech33.7-136, 4.0529.4-125, 4.2663.1-262, 4.150.880.9717.0+7.50.445Clemson37.9-191, 5.0328.0-216, 7.7065.9-406, 6.160.800.8928.7-7.50.555West Virginia49.6-369, 7.4413.9-91, 6.5263.5-460, 7.240.800.6639.5-23.00.577Connecticut28.3-113, 3.9833.6-150, 4.4661.9-262, 4.240.800.9210.6+23.00.423Miami Fla30.8-126, 4.1030.8-186, 6.0361.6-312, 5.070.850.8522.3-17.50.405Duke28.4-52, 1.8232.3-172, 5.3460.7-224, 3.690.800.9512.1+17.50.595SMU35.8-151, 4.2328.0-149, 5.3263.8-300, 4.710.940.9720.6+6.00.504East Carolina28.2-100, 3.5439.7-285, 7.1967.9-385, 5.670.800.6726.3-6.00.496Toledo31.1-147, 4.7337.3-173, 4.6568.4-321, 4.690.861.3019.00.00.399Eastern Mich32.9-165, 5.0230.6-179, 5.8563.5-344, 5.420.801.1426.80.00.601UL Lafayette40.9-259, 6.3419.7-84, 4.2760.6-343, 5.670.820.6825.6-9.00.438Florida Atl.29.8-124, 4.1531.0-220, 7.1160.8-344, 5.660.800.8021.4+9.00.562TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Boston College27.1-84, 3.0938.2-221, 5.7865.3-305, 4.660.891.1421.9+6.50.585Florida St.28.5-104, 3.6438.8-231, 5.9567.3-335, 4.970.801.2321.9-6.50.415Mississippi St.28.2-84, 2.9831.2-139, 4.4459.4-223, 3.750.911.068.2+18.00.462Georgia33.3-143, 4.2827.2-203, 7.4860.5-346, 5.720.800.9129.1-18.00.538Texas El Paso26.5-99, 3.7236.2-299, 8.2762.7-398, 6.350.831.6126.9+6.00.473Houston26.9-139, 5.1540.0-315, 7.8766.9-453, 6.780.800.8334.9-6.00.527Boise St.38.5-241, 6.2523.1-193, 8.3461.6-433, 7.030.850.7538.4-21.00.586Idaho28.0-88, 3.1631.4-183, 5.8459.4-272, 4.580.801.4310.7+21.00.414Texas Tech17.8-108, 6.0646.6-281, 6.0264.4-388, 6.030.811.2526.6-2.00.517Iowa St.31.5-129, 4.1031.5-198, 6.2763.0-327, 5.190.800.9423.3+2.00.483Utah St.36.9-175, 4.7424.3-161, 6.6161.2-336, 5.480.970.7722.7+6.50.527Louisiana Tech29.7-133, 4.4732.7-247, 7.5562.4-380, 6.080.800.9927.1-6.50.473Fresno St.29.9-110, 3.6730.2-117, 3.8960.1-227, 3.780.831.198.4+32.50.502LSU33.4-143, 4.2931.1-341, 10.9864.5-485, 7.520.800.5340.8-32.50.498No Carolina St.32.0-208, 6.4928.5-198, 6.9460.5-405, 6.700.890.9028.1+3.00.614Maryland35.0-174, 4.9624.9-146, 5.8559.9-319, 5.330.800.7422.3-3.00.386Tulsa36.9-189, 5.1228.6-259, 9.0765.5-448, 6.840.820.7733.4-12.50.548Memphis28.6-96, 3.3531.8-183, 5.7660.4-279, 4.620.801.0917.2+12.50.452Iowa25.2-78, 3.1037.7-182, 4.8262.9-260, 4.130.921.0714.1+13.50.516Michigan40.9-173, 4.2427.1-175, 6.4768.0-349, 5.130.800.6526.4-13.50.484TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Kansas St.23.5-102, 4.3340.4-151, 3.7363.9-252, 3.950.831.5314.7+15.00.588Missouri33.7-149, 4.4132.1-165, 5.1365.8-313, 4.760.801.0422.9-15.00.412Texas33.2-160, 4.8327.2-208, 7.6460.4-368, 6.100.850.8228.2-6.00.509Nebraska33.1-140, 4.2428.2-210, 7.4461.3-350, 5.710.800.8321.5+6.00.491San Jose St.32.7-192, 5.8828.2-186, 6.6160.9-379, 6.220.940.9625.6+12.50.590Nevada38.1-226, 5.9224.6-193, 7.8662.7-419, 6.680.800.9231.2-12.50.410Utah31.1-133, 4.2932.1-164, 5.1263.2-298, 4.710.891.1419.7-6.00.457New Mexico29.8-95, 3.1832.0-167, 5.2161.8-261, 4.230.801.1817.0+6.00.543Hawaii16.7-125, 7.5044.6-573, 12.8561.3-698, 11.390.931.0561.5-18.50.604New Mexico St.17.9-63, 3.5162.8-499, 7.9580.7-562, 6.970.801.1535.0+18.50.396Temple26.7-104, 3.8933.6-174, 5.1860.3-278, 4.610.921.069.6+33.50.484Northern Ill39.8-332, 8.3322.1-158, 7.1561.9-490, 7.910.800.5444.3-33.50.516Michigan St.34.3-163, 4.7429.5-209, 7.0963.8-372, 5.830.821.0125.8-7.50.503Northwestern34.2-155, 4.5425.3-120, 4.7659.5-276, 4.630.800.8518.1+7.50.497UCLA31.3-135, 4.3032.0-168, 5.2663.3-303, 4.790.861.1018.5+14.00.624Notre Dame25.4-102, 4.0138.2-216, 5.6563.6-318, 5.000.800.6623.0-14.00.377Buffalo29.8-101, 3.3833.5-140, 4.1763.3-240, 3.800.901.019.5+15.50.380Ohio37.7-223, 5.9225.4-178, 7.0163.1-401, 6.360.801.1134.2-15.50.620Indiana25.0-104, 4.1434.5-131, 3.7959.5-234, 3.940.941.138.1+31.00.471Ohio St.38.0-195, 5.1226.9-285, 10.5864.9-479, 7.380.800.4641.3-31.00.529TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%Colorado36.4-189, 5.2022.6-95, 4.2159.0-284, 4.820.940.7916.5+14.00.547Oklahoma32.8-115, 3.5230.8-243, 7.9063.6-359, 5.640.801.0226.9-14.00.453Texas A&M36.5-194, 5.3125.1-186, 7.4161.6-380, 6.170.870.7423.3+3.00.374Oklahoma St.35.6-197, 5.5325.3-255, 10.0660.9-451, 7.410.800.6836.0-3.00.626Illinois32.7-148, 4.5329.7-127, 4.2962.4-276, 4.420.951.0012.0+17.50.466Penn St.34.6-174, 5.0330.0-199, 6.6364.6-373, 5.770.800.8632.1-17.50.534Rutgers36.3-164, 4.5322.3-96, 4.3158.6-261, 4.450.971.1514.2+6.50.430Pittsburgh32.6-114, 3.4926.7-231, 8.6759.3-345, 5.820.800.5226.1-6.50.570Wisconsin39.5-224, 5.6827.1-213, 7.8766.6-438, 6.570.950.5734.3-6.50.624Purdue27.1-141, 5.2235.0-173, 4.9462.1-314, 5.060.801.0818.3+6.50.377Air Force49.3-275, 5.5811.2-78, 6.9760.5-353, 5.840.900.3727.4-13.50.473San Diego St.33.5-118, 3.5124.2-175, 7.2457.7-293, 5.070.800.9416.0+13.50.527Louisville39.3-293, 7.4629.9-231, 7.7169.2-524, 7.570.910.5737.4-17.50.481Syracuse32.4-155, 4.7829.8-149, 5.0062.2-304, 4.890.800.6721.4+17.50.520Alabama32.8-123, 3.7626.1-150, 5.7558.9-273, 4.640.790.9114.5+11.00.427Tennessee31.5-138, 4.3728.7-255, 8.8960.2-393, 6.520.801.0631.1-11.00.573Marshall33.6-208, 6.1926.0-135, 5.2159.6-343, 5.760.941.0024.8+7.00.601UAB37.0-172, 4.6424.0-192, 7.9961.0-363, 5.960.800.6724.0-7.00.399Middle Tenn32.5-129, 3.9828.6-149, 5.2061.1-278, 4.550.911.0519.4-3.50.453UL Monroe30.0-104, 3.4531.0-205, 6.6161.0-308, 5.060.801.0319.5+3.50.547TeamRushingPassingTotalFumIntPtsLine%South Carolina31.1-135, 4.3329.8-237, 7.9560.9-372, 6.100.901.0727.2-3.50.500Vanderbilt36.4-202, 5.5424.1-153, 6.3560.5-355, 5.860.800.9923.7+3.50.500North Carolina31.6-155, 4.9230.4-147, 4.8462.0-303, 4.880.801.1717.0+6.50.442Virginia31.3-177, 5.6530.0-182, 6.0561.3-358, 5.850.800.7128.0-6.50.559Southern Miss33.9-117, 3.4527.6-139, 5.0561.5-256, 4.170.870.9812.0+17.50.512Virginia Tech27.9-125, 4.4934.2-224, 6.5662.1-350, 5.630.801.2128.6-17.50.488Oregon34.0-206, 6.0734.3-224, 6.5268.3-430, 6.300.921.1631.3-3.50.541Washington St.33.5-194, 5.7932.9-164, 4.9866.4-358, 5.390.800.8124.7+3.50.459Colorado St.30.8-86, 2.7829.6-119, 4.0160.4-204, 3.380.870.9911.3+3.50.408Wyoming31.3-110, 3.5232.4-208, 6.4163.7-318, 4.990.800.9421.9-3.50.592Key to Math System Predictions:
Rushing = Run Plays - Rushing Yards, Yards Per Rush (ypr)
Passing = Pass Plays - Passing Yards, Yards Per Pass Play (ypp, includes sacks)
Total = Total Plays - Total Yards, Yards Per Play
Fum = Fumbles
Ints = Interceptions
Pts = Predicted Points Scored
Line = Point Spread
% = Chance to Cover Spread
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
ISU74 said:
Daily Racing Form...Here's the article:
Dr. Bob's picks moving college lines
By DAVE TULEY
LAS VEGAS – NBC used to have must-see TV on Thursday night. Now, a lot of college football bettors are setting aside time for must-see of the Internet variety on Thursday morning. That's when the betting boards start lighting up in Vegas and at offshore books. Watching the live odds feed at vegasinsider.com - or similar services such as donbest.com, gjupdate.com, and sbrlines.com - is like watching the Christmas tree being lit at Rockefeller Center. This Thursday, for example, eight games moved at least a point within a half hour.
The 10 a.m. Pacific start time coincides with the release of college football picks from San Francisco-based professional handicapper Bob Stoll (drbobsports.com) to his customers by e-mail.
Stoll, 41, was a statistics major at Berkeley in 1987 when he started his sports picks service. He has done some radio but he's kept a relatively low profile in the tout world. That started to change last year when he hit 74 percent in college football on a "star basis." Basically, a 2-star is worth two units, 5-star is five units, and they're graded as such. His list of clients grew, and he said he started to see lines move shortly after his 10 a.m. releases.
"Around the third or fourth week last year is when I started to notice my clients steaming some lines," Stoll said Thursday. "It would take five or ten minutes. This year, it's instantaneous."
This year, his picks are 19-12-3 (61 percent after tossing out the pushes) and 55-30-7 (65 percent) on a star basis. Word of his success has spread, and it's becoming clear that not only are Stoll's clients firing away, but people merely line-shopping are also trying to jump on the steam train. Even for those who miss the prime numbers, Stoll's plays have been 40-24-7 (62.5 percent) after the line moves.
The rumor going around is that an Asian group is betting large sums on Stoll's selections and driving the lines immediately after he e-mails the picks to his clients. Some reports say the Asian group is unaffected by Stoll, but Stoll points out that the Asian group never moves its games earlier than his releases. He said he assumes the group is a client, although he adds, "Obviously they didn't sign up as asiangroup@asiangroup.com."
Stoll said he started to get complaints from some of his customers early this year that they couldn't get down on lines before they moved. So, three weeks ago, he started releasing the plays in sets of two about every four minutes.
"People were betting one game and then all the other lines would be gone, so this helped a little bit," Stoll said. "I've heard that the Asian group has about 80 people working with them, so some people say it's helped them be more organized, too. I'm just trying to level the playing field for the guys on their own."
Stoll said he suspects sports books have become clients of his to beat the steam. He points out that Thursday morning, Pinnacle took all his games offline within minutes of his sending out the mass e-mail.
It would take too much space to detail all the line movement that went on Thursday morning, but here's a summary. And it all took place within a half-hour's time.
Bob's pick Start Move Foe
N.C. St. +3 +1.5 Md.
Ohio -15.5 -18 Buffalo
Neb. +6.5 +5.5 Texas
Ark. -19 -21 Miss.
UCLA +14 1/2 +13 1/2 ND
Ok. St. -2.5 -4 Texas A&M
Marshall +7.5 +6 UAB
Hawaii -18.5 -20.5 N.M. St.
Stoll is obviously enjoying his run, although he is facing new problems, such as trying to make the e-mail delivery system fair for everyone, not necessarily something that a handicapper wants to devote energy to. But he's not the kind to claim he's winning at everything. He readily points out that during his great college season last year, he was 26-35 in the NFL and is 5-6-2 with his NFL best bets this year - although he's 3-0-2 the last two weeks.
But there's no question that you go with the hot hand. And for Stoll and his followers, as well as those trying to set up big middles, it doesn't get much hotter than this.
As for my plays . . .
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Helmut, that's especially true with all the shit that's happened in Hawaii with the earthquakes and power outages. Not to mention the excessive travel Hawaii has with B2B road games...
I can absolutely see NMSU +21...not so sure about the ML. But I wagered the over. I would suggest the total can't be high enough...
I can absolutely see NMSU +21...not so sure about the ML. But I wagered the over. I would suggest the total can't be high enough...
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