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2 Star Selection
HOUSTON (-4.5) 31 Southern Miss 19
01-Dec-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Don’t be fooled by Houston’s 27-31 regular season loss at Southern Miss, as the Cougars dominated that game
423 total yards (at 6.5 yards per play) to 325 yards at 5.0 yppl. Houston is likely to outplay the Eagles by just as
much this time around at home, and the score should be more representative of how much better the Cougars are
in this match-up. After that fluke loss to Southern Miss, Houston coach Art Briles moved explosive wide receiver
Anthony Alridge to running back and the results have been amazing. Alridge has rushed for 878 yards this season
on just 78 carries for an amazing 11.3 yards per rush! In 5 games with Alridge splitting carries with Jackie Battle
(801 yards at 5.1 ypr) the Cougars have averaged 261 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per rushing play (against teams
that would combine to allow 4.9 yprp to an average team). Quarterback Kevin Kolb is a 4 year starter that rarely
makes a mistake (just 3 interceptions all season) and he’s averaged 7.6 yards per pass play this season against
teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Houston has been 1.0 yppl better than average
offensively in 5 games with Alridge at running back and Southern Miss is just average defensively (5.2 yppl
allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). Southern Miss didn’t have to deal with Houston’s dual
running threats in their first meeting and the Eagles’ sub-par run defense (4.9 yprp allowed to teams that would
average just 4.4 yprp against an average defense) will have a tough time containing Alridge and Battle in this game.
Kolb lit up the Southern Miss secondary for 339 yards at 8.7 yppp the first time around and should have pretty good
success tonight as well. Houston has a 1.0 yppl advantage over the Southern Miss defense and the Eagles’ sub-par
offense (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) won’t be able to keep up against an
underrated Houston defense. Houston’s defense is underrated because the oddsmakers aren’t taking into account
two horrible defensive outings when both of the Cougars’ starting safeties were out. Houston’s starting strong
safety Rocky Schwartz was only healthy for the first two games this year, but the Cougars best player, free safety
Will Gulley hurt himself early in game 3 against Grambling and then missed the 34-25 victory over Oklahoma
State the next week (in which the defense, without Gulley, gave up 9.1 yards per play). In two games without
Gulley the Cougars allowed an average of 10.2 yards per pass play with two inexperienced safeties getting burned
countless times. Gulley returned for game 5 and the Houston pass defense has been decent ever since while the
run defense is 0.3 yprp worse than average. Houston was 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively overall this
season but they were only 0.2 yppl worse than average with Gulley playing, which gives them an advantage over
the Southern Miss offense in this game. My math model projects Houston with a 414 yards to 311 yards advantage
in this game and predicts the Cougars to win by 12 points. It is obvious to me that the line on this game is a function
of the entire season and has not been adjusted for Houston’s better offense with Alridge at running back and for the
fact that the Cougars’ best defensive player was out for 2 games, which made the defense appear worse
statistically than they actually are. I’ll take advantage of the hidden value and I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best
Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less.
2 Star Selection
Wake Forest (+2.5) 23 GEORGIA TECH 17
Jacksonville
02-Dec-06 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Wake Forest is perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2006 football season, but the Demon Deacons are no fluke. Jim
Grobe’s team isn’t much offensively, rating at exactly average with Riley Skinner at quarterback (he replaced an
injured Ben Mauk, who was hurt in the opener). Wake Forest is actually better than average offensively if you
consider that Skinner has thrown just 4 interceptions all season. The number is in great contrast to Georgia Tech’s
Reggie Ball, who has continued a career of completing less than 50% of his passes (46% this year) and making
errant throws (12 interceptions on just 275 passes, 4.4%). The fact that Ball has one of the best receivers in the
nation in Calvin Johnson and still averages just 5.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to
allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) is a testament to how bad Ball is. Georgia Tech is slightly better than average running the ball, but they are 0.4 yppl worse than average overall offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would
combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Yellow Jackets will not be able to run against Wake’s stout
defensive front that has allowed just 3.8 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.8 yprp).
The Demon Deacons are 0.2 yppp worse than average defending the pass, but their ball-hawking secondary has
picked off 20 passes this season and should get at least one against the erratic Reggie Ball. Wake Forest is 0.3
yppl better than average overall defensively, so they have a 0.7 yppl advantage over Georgia Tech’s defense while
the Yellow Jackets’ defense (0.7 yppl better than average if I exclude games against Samford and Duke, when the
second string played a good portion of the time) has a 0.7 yppl advantage over Wake’s offense. The difference in
this game is Wake Forest’s very good special teams units and projected turnovers, which favor the Demon
Deacons considerably. My math model favors Wake Forest by 5 1?2 points and I certainly don’t mind taking Wake
Forest getting points given that the underdog in Wake games is 46-18-1 ATS in the Jim Grobe era (10-1 ATS this
season). I’ll take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bat at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 points or more.
3 Star Selection
UCLA (+13.0) 20 USC 23
02-Dec-06 01:30 PM Pacific Time
It may be tough for USC to go to the emotional well one more time after big wins over Oregon, Cal and Notre
Dame the last 3 weeks. UCLA is a rival, so I’ll assume the Trojans will be ready to play but USC applies to a
negative 34-77-1 ATS situation that plays against road teams coming off a high scoring home win the previous
week. UCLA, meanwhile, has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game and the Bruins come into this
game with a strong defense and plenty of confidence from consecutive impressive wins over Oregon State and
Arizona State. UCLA applies to a very strong 44-10-1 ATS late season home dog off a bye angle that is already 3-0
ATS this season - including Rutgers’ upset of Louisville. The Bruins also apply to a 52-13-1 ATS home underdog
momentum situation that is 6-0 ATS for me this season. The situational analysis gives UCLA a 64% chance of
covering at a fair line and the line is more than fair in this game. USC has been 1.0 yppl better than average
offensively with John David Booty in the game this season, but UCLA will put pressure on Booty that he hasn’t
seen all season. The Bruins average 3.4 sacks per game and rate at 0.9 yppl better than average overall
defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and it will be
interesting to see how Booty handles the pressure. USC has faced two teams this season that average 3.0 sacks
or more per game and they barely beat one of those teams (28-22 over Washington State) and lost to the other
(Oregon State). USC has an advantage when the Bruins have the ball, as UCLA is just 0.1 yppl better than average
offensively with Patrick Cowan at quarterback and the Trojans are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively. My
math model only favors USC by just 7 points in this game, but the Trojans annually play at a higher level late in the
season, as they are now 26-7 ATS from game 8 on in recent years, including 4-0 ATS this season. So, I decided to
see what the math would be if I used USC’s compensated stats in their last 4 games. USC is certainly better in the
last 4 weeks than they’ve been overall this season but the math using only the Trojans’ last 4 games results in a
fair line of 11 1?2 points, which is still lower than the actual pointspread. For the sake of this analysis, I’ll assume
that 11 1?2 is the fair line. As with most rivalry games, the home underdog has a good track record in this series. In
fact, home underdogs of 3 points or more are 9-1 ATS in this series since 1980, including UCLA’s near upset two
years ago as a 23 point dog (lost 24-29 to an unbeaten USC team that won the national title). It all adds up to a very
good play on the Bruins in this game and I’ll take UCLA in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more, for
2-Stars at +10 1?2 and +10 and for 4-Stars if the line goes up to +14 points or more.
College Strong Opinions
WEST VIRGINIA (-10.0) 29 Rutgers 14
02-Dec-06 04:45 PM Pacific Time
West Virginia isn’t playing for much in this game (a better bowl perhaps) but the Mountaineers will win easily if
they’ve been focused all week in preparation for this game. Rutgers has a fast defense, so it will interesting to see
how West Virginia’s offensive speed (i.e. Steve Slaton and Pat White) matches up in this game. West Virginia’s
offense was slowed last week by a solid South Florida defense, but the Mounties have had good success against a
couple of other good defensive teams (ran for over 300 yards each in games against Louisville and Miss State,
who both normally have good run defenses). Overall West Virginia has averaged 7.5 yards per play this season
and they are 1.9 yppl better than average with quarterback Pat White on the field. Rutgers has a very good defense
that rates at 1.2 yppl better than average, but the Scarlet Knights are at a disadvantage against the Mountaineers.
Rutgers’ mediocre offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) is also at a
disadvantage against a solid West Virginia stop unit that is 0.5 yppl better than average. Both teams are excellent in
special teams and West Virginia is likely to win the turnover battle (Rutgers quarterback has thrown 23
interceptions in just 343 career pass attempts). Overall the math favors West Virginia by 17 points, but the
Mountaineers qualify in a negative 32-61-1 ATS situation that plays against home favorites that just lost as a
favorite of 10 points or more the previous game. Rutgers is 19-7-1 ATS as an underdog since 2003 (4-0 straight up
this season), but West Virginia is 20-3 ATS in conference games when not favored by 15 points or more (since
2003). The situation against West Virginia is not that strong and the Mounties’ team trend is certainly impressive,
so I’ll consider West Virginia a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less.
