E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-20.5) 43 Rice 13
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-07
Southern Miss was embarrassed on national TV last Thursday night in Boise, but I doubt head coach Jeff Bower will let that happen again. Bower has been the head coach at Southern Miss for 17 years and his teams are 30-8-1 ATS in the next game after losing by 10 points or more, including 12-1 ATS recently and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or more. Bower’s teams are also 8-2 ATS in all games as a home favorite of 18 points or more with the two spread losses coming by a combined 3 points. The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Jeremy Young for a few weeks and backup Stephen Reaves was hurt in practice this week so red-shirt freshman Martevious Young will get his first action. M-Young out played Stephen Reaves in the off-season and was 10 of 13 passing for 155 yards in the final scrimmage before the season started, so he’s probably no worse than Reaves would have been. Reaves rates at 0.7 yppp worse than average over his career, going back to his days at Michigan State, and I’ll assume Martevious Young will be about the same although some local sources think Young will be better than Reaves would have been. The Rice defense is horrible (6.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team) so Young should have a good outing and star running back Damion Fletcher (387 yards in 4 games at 5.0 ypr) will get the ball a lot against a sub-par Rice defensive front. The Owls are not nearly as good offensively this season under first year coach David Bailiff as they were last season under innovative coach Todd Graham, as Rice has managed just 4.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). Southern Miss was not good defensively last week in Boise and they rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Eagles should be able to handle the Rice attack. My math model would have favored the Eagles by 27 ½ points with starter Jeremy Young at quarterback and the math still favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points with Martevious Young at quarterback based on conservative assumptions. The Eagles apply to a very good 53-15-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation tonight in addition to their good team trends under Bower. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
**SOUTHERN MISS (-20.5) 43 Rice 13
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Oct-07
Southern Miss was embarrassed on national TV last Thursday night in Boise, but I doubt head coach Jeff Bower will let that happen again. Bower has been the head coach at Southern Miss for 17 years and his teams are 30-8-1 ATS in the next game after losing by 10 points or more, including 12-1 ATS recently and 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14 points or more. Bower’s teams are also 8-2 ATS in all games as a home favorite of 18 points or more with the two spread losses coming by a combined 3 points. The Eagles will be without starting quarterback Jeremy Young for a few weeks and backup Stephen Reaves was hurt in practice this week so red-shirt freshman Martevious Young will get his first action. M-Young out played Stephen Reaves in the off-season and was 10 of 13 passing for 155 yards in the final scrimmage before the season started, so he’s probably no worse than Reaves would have been. Reaves rates at 0.7 yppp worse than average over his career, going back to his days at Michigan State, and I’ll assume Martevious Young will be about the same although some local sources think Young will be better than Reaves would have been. The Rice defense is horrible (6.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team) so Young should have a good outing and star running back Damion Fletcher (387 yards in 4 games at 5.0 ypr) will get the ball a lot against a sub-par Rice defensive front. The Owls are not nearly as good offensively this season under first year coach David Bailiff as they were last season under innovative coach Todd Graham, as Rice has managed just 4.1 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). Southern Miss was not good defensively last week in Boise and they rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season, but the Eagles should be able to handle the Rice attack. My math model would have favored the Eagles by 27 ½ points with starter Jeremy Young at quarterback and the math still favors Southern Miss by 23 ½ points with Martevious Young at quarterback based on conservative assumptions. The Eagles apply to a very good 53-15-2 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation tonight in addition to their good team trends under Bower. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
