Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I have many parlays closing with PIttsburgh Moneyline tomorrow. I expect PIttsburgh to win this game.
Because of the numerous parlays and high payouts of all the parlays I needed some protection.
So I thought about hitting baltimore moneyline at +220 and then I thought to play this PROP instead.
Surely if you like baltimore to win, this prop has much more value and you can risk less and the return is worth it for sure--
Baltimore to win between 1 and 6 points-- +500
5 to 1 odds on that is good, in the chance Balty pulls the upset off, I dont think they win by 7 or more points. I think with points at a premium it would be difficult for them to win by that margin.
This prop has much better value if you feel Balty can win this game--
Thoughts on the game---
I would not put any stock into the win vs SanDiego last week that PItts had--
Personally I was not impressed at all by PITTS last week. I think they benefited from the following factors that resulted in their win-
-SanDiego had no pass rush last week, it was a problem for them all year long, they had what I call a ROAD RUSH- they just didnt show up at all and couldnt pressure ROTHYBERGER at all.
-The punt that bounced on the head off a Sandiego players head killed Sandiego.
-The tipped Rivers interception that was tipped and Intercepted killed Sandiego, they had the ball for less than a minute and were in shock that all the bounces were going against them in this game-
-Thirdly any review that is reviewed somehow goes PIttsburg's way, it does not matter, the NFL gift wraps everything for the Steelers, they are a huge market and will get the Calls. Those challenges are huge and PItts gets all the challenges in their favour.
Sandiego was not a great team at pressuring the QB, you give ROTHYBERGER time he may be one of the best in the leauge outside of the pocket and on 3rd down. Sandiego lost this game for sure because they could not control BIG BEN out of the pocket-
This game this week is vs a team that just knows BIG BEN and plays them much much better than sandiego did. Pitts owns Sandiego, much like Sandiego owns the COlts and much like the Ravens own Miami.
In this case I think the line should be -4 at most.
The Ravens do play them very very tight. I dont know who was calling the plays for PIttsburgh last week but that is not normal PIttsburgh play calling, they were aggressive because they must have known they could protect BIG BEN and they could air the ball out. Big BEN had so much time that he was able to pat the ball before throwing it.
Tomlin in big games can be like jeff Fisher, in that he will run run and play field position.
I cannot play the Steelers here because due to the type of game this is, if this game is close, Tomlin will be massaging Jeff Reeds leg in the 3rd qtr or 4th qtr and be setting up a 3 point win.
I think there is a good chance PItts wins, but I think the chance of a cover if they win is about 50-50. There is a stat that has it like 63-2 if they win they cover, but I really think these teams play low scoring games to start with.
Ravens have a huge edge in PUNTING- Berger has no leg and the punter on RAVENS will outpunt him by at least 10 yards per punt easily.
Pitt looked unstoppable last week and great while balty looked lucky last week-- Pitt was not in control at halftime vs Sandiego last weekend.
Pitts looked amazing and balty looked lucky so this week it appears that Pitts is the better team and Balty is due to lose.
The best advice is to go back to their last meeting, it was a close game, real tight, real close, so their games from the past 3 to 4 weeks really dont make one team any stronger.
believe only 50% of what you see- I am not buying what PItts is selling as they easily could have lost the game last week if they didnt get 2 lucky bounces and 2 challenges that were questionable and BIG BEN had all day to throw as SanDiego pass rushers mailed it in, they did not want to rush in the cold, you could see it, they wanted to go home. This week a team is coming to play them and will give it all they have.
Having said all this I am on Pitts moneyline but not the spread-- I would say buy it to -3 is a decent bet.
It is possible that Pitts could just play amazing and win this game 27-10 ish but I dont see it, I see a closer than expected affair in this game--
TOMLIN's mental approach and attitude will have close game written all over this. last week was not PIttsburgh, they dont open the offense up like that. I dont see them opening the offfense this week like they did last week. I see them playing a more conservative game and using their Defense to make the game changing plays and to win field position battle and try to wear down Balty and win the game in the 2nd half.
These 2 teams are defensive teams, the clock runs very fast when they are runnning, balty is confident they can win, so is PITTS---
These 2 teams so far are pretty good at stopping each others offenses. This is why I feel it is hard to lay points with PITTS. A lot of people think BALTY will run out of gas and get blown out. This team does not get blown out, they have a lot of heart and are very confident. Look at this defense, they cannot get blown out I believe. Pitts is playing at home in a conference game, all the pressure is on them, for them to blow out Balty woudl be tough because this is their game with all the pressure on them.
I think it will play close to the first 2 games, Balty will play well but in the 3rd and 4th qtrs, PItts is more mature and more experienced, this is why they beat them in both games. They just have that edge that Jordan had over Utah in the playoffs, where they take over, just like the edge that Urban Meyer has in national championship games. I really think PItts is more that type of team, to just take control late, make the plays and win the game- ROTHY is more experienced than FLACCO and it will show late in the game, not so much in the first 2 qtrs for sure.
I think Pitts just makes the key plays to win the game again, much like TEBOW made the plays vs OU, it will be very similar to that 2nd half of that game.
People like to think about BALTY and the fact that TENNY turned it over 3 times in the red zone and moved the ball all over them last week with Collins.
Yeah so what? TENNY is home now and not playing? This is a new game and a new team. That game is over, this game is starting.
Putting stock in last game is pointless because its over now, it is over, so whether TENNY turned it over 3 or 4 times it is irrelevant.
If one wants to discount the victory by Balty, we can say that PItts also got 2 lucky turnovers and 2 challenges they won and no HOLDING calls again on them because the NFL refs may as well be wearing Steelers Jerseys.
A big reason why I am on Steelers moneyline is I know there is literally no way Balty is getting any calls tomorrow, Pitts will not get called for HOLDING and will be given the calls again and I think they will Mug Balty receivers and not get called for it. THE NFL wants PItts in the finals, if they need help the Refs will get involved in this game, you can bet on that. I remember last week me and my brother were drinking and watching the game and we were laughing how PItts was holding and not getting called for it. ONe hold was so blatantly obvious and you can hear the Sandiego player screaming to the ref that he is being HELD--
The crowd alone intimidates the REFS to give them the calls- Their last super bowl was aided by the REFS-
PITTs seems to win every challenge- their win over Balty at end of year, if the situation was reversed Balty would not have been given the Touchdown on that close goaline play-
The reffing is the extra insurance in PITTS corner and it will show up tomorrow.
:cheers:
Because of the numerous parlays and high payouts of all the parlays I needed some protection.
So I thought about hitting baltimore moneyline at +220 and then I thought to play this PROP instead.
Surely if you like baltimore to win, this prop has much more value and you can risk less and the return is worth it for sure--
Baltimore to win between 1 and 6 points-- +500
5 to 1 odds on that is good, in the chance Balty pulls the upset off, I dont think they win by 7 or more points. I think with points at a premium it would be difficult for them to win by that margin.
This prop has much better value if you feel Balty can win this game--
Thoughts on the game---
I would not put any stock into the win vs SanDiego last week that PItts had--
Personally I was not impressed at all by PITTS last week. I think they benefited from the following factors that resulted in their win-
-SanDiego had no pass rush last week, it was a problem for them all year long, they had what I call a ROAD RUSH- they just didnt show up at all and couldnt pressure ROTHYBERGER at all.
-The punt that bounced on the head off a Sandiego players head killed Sandiego.
-The tipped Rivers interception that was tipped and Intercepted killed Sandiego, they had the ball for less than a minute and were in shock that all the bounces were going against them in this game-
-Thirdly any review that is reviewed somehow goes PIttsburg's way, it does not matter, the NFL gift wraps everything for the Steelers, they are a huge market and will get the Calls. Those challenges are huge and PItts gets all the challenges in their favour.
Sandiego was not a great team at pressuring the QB, you give ROTHYBERGER time he may be one of the best in the leauge outside of the pocket and on 3rd down. Sandiego lost this game for sure because they could not control BIG BEN out of the pocket-
This game this week is vs a team that just knows BIG BEN and plays them much much better than sandiego did. Pitts owns Sandiego, much like Sandiego owns the COlts and much like the Ravens own Miami.
In this case I think the line should be -4 at most.
The Ravens do play them very very tight. I dont know who was calling the plays for PIttsburgh last week but that is not normal PIttsburgh play calling, they were aggressive because they must have known they could protect BIG BEN and they could air the ball out. Big BEN had so much time that he was able to pat the ball before throwing it.
Tomlin in big games can be like jeff Fisher, in that he will run run and play field position.
I cannot play the Steelers here because due to the type of game this is, if this game is close, Tomlin will be massaging Jeff Reeds leg in the 3rd qtr or 4th qtr and be setting up a 3 point win.
I think there is a good chance PItts wins, but I think the chance of a cover if they win is about 50-50. There is a stat that has it like 63-2 if they win they cover, but I really think these teams play low scoring games to start with.
Ravens have a huge edge in PUNTING- Berger has no leg and the punter on RAVENS will outpunt him by at least 10 yards per punt easily.
Pitt looked unstoppable last week and great while balty looked lucky last week-- Pitt was not in control at halftime vs Sandiego last weekend.
Pitts looked amazing and balty looked lucky so this week it appears that Pitts is the better team and Balty is due to lose.
The best advice is to go back to their last meeting, it was a close game, real tight, real close, so their games from the past 3 to 4 weeks really dont make one team any stronger.
believe only 50% of what you see- I am not buying what PItts is selling as they easily could have lost the game last week if they didnt get 2 lucky bounces and 2 challenges that were questionable and BIG BEN had all day to throw as SanDiego pass rushers mailed it in, they did not want to rush in the cold, you could see it, they wanted to go home. This week a team is coming to play them and will give it all they have.
Having said all this I am on Pitts moneyline but not the spread-- I would say buy it to -3 is a decent bet.
It is possible that Pitts could just play amazing and win this game 27-10 ish but I dont see it, I see a closer than expected affair in this game--
TOMLIN's mental approach and attitude will have close game written all over this. last week was not PIttsburgh, they dont open the offense up like that. I dont see them opening the offfense this week like they did last week. I see them playing a more conservative game and using their Defense to make the game changing plays and to win field position battle and try to wear down Balty and win the game in the 2nd half.
These 2 teams are defensive teams, the clock runs very fast when they are runnning, balty is confident they can win, so is PITTS---
These 2 teams so far are pretty good at stopping each others offenses. This is why I feel it is hard to lay points with PITTS. A lot of people think BALTY will run out of gas and get blown out. This team does not get blown out, they have a lot of heart and are very confident. Look at this defense, they cannot get blown out I believe. Pitts is playing at home in a conference game, all the pressure is on them, for them to blow out Balty woudl be tough because this is their game with all the pressure on them.
I think it will play close to the first 2 games, Balty will play well but in the 3rd and 4th qtrs, PItts is more mature and more experienced, this is why they beat them in both games. They just have that edge that Jordan had over Utah in the playoffs, where they take over, just like the edge that Urban Meyer has in national championship games. I really think PItts is more that type of team, to just take control late, make the plays and win the game- ROTHY is more experienced than FLACCO and it will show late in the game, not so much in the first 2 qtrs for sure.
I think Pitts just makes the key plays to win the game again, much like TEBOW made the plays vs OU, it will be very similar to that 2nd half of that game.
People like to think about BALTY and the fact that TENNY turned it over 3 times in the red zone and moved the ball all over them last week with Collins.
Yeah so what? TENNY is home now and not playing? This is a new game and a new team. That game is over, this game is starting.
Putting stock in last game is pointless because its over now, it is over, so whether TENNY turned it over 3 or 4 times it is irrelevant.
If one wants to discount the victory by Balty, we can say that PItts also got 2 lucky turnovers and 2 challenges they won and no HOLDING calls again on them because the NFL refs may as well be wearing Steelers Jerseys.
A big reason why I am on Steelers moneyline is I know there is literally no way Balty is getting any calls tomorrow, Pitts will not get called for HOLDING and will be given the calls again and I think they will Mug Balty receivers and not get called for it. THE NFL wants PItts in the finals, if they need help the Refs will get involved in this game, you can bet on that. I remember last week me and my brother were drinking and watching the game and we were laughing how PItts was holding and not getting called for it. ONe hold was so blatantly obvious and you can hear the Sandiego player screaming to the ref that he is being HELD--
The crowd alone intimidates the REFS to give them the calls- Their last super bowl was aided by the REFS-
PITTs seems to win every challenge- their win over Balty at end of year, if the situation was reversed Balty would not have been given the Touchdown on that close goaline play-
The reffing is the extra insurance in PITTS corner and it will show up tomorrow.
:cheers:
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