Dolphins vs. Rams Monday Night Football Odds and Betting Pick
Will Miami's Defense Improve?
In the last two weeks, Miami has allowed 28 points to Arizona and 30 to Buffalo.
Dolphins optimists believe, however, that their defense will improve.
They are banking on the return of multiple defensive players.
While on paper and in a video game the return of those players would make a big difference, player injuries are, generally speaking, a highly overrated factor unless they are star players or very good quarterbacks.
I contend that their return would not have a meaningful impact on this game's outcome.
Looking at Healthier Miami's Games
Miami's defense, even before it became as injury-laden as it has been since the second quarter of its game against Arizona, failed to inspire optimism.
Before playing Arizona, the Dolphins had the following three opponents: Indianapolis, New England, and Tennessee.
While they allowed few points to the Colts and Patriots, both of those teams were led by backup-caliber quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and Jacoby Brissett, respectively.
The Titans were able to be conservative on offense and to take advantage of short field position to score 31 points.
Because, as I will explain, the Rams have a good offense, it is more meaningful to look at Miami's earlier games.
When the Dolphins' defense was healthier, Miami got to face a Seattle team that knew it could be conservative because Miami's starting quarterback was hurt.
The Seahawks still scored 24 points.
In their previous game, Miami conceded 31 points to a Buffalo team that coasted to victory.
Before that, in Week 1 against Jacksonville, the Dolphins allowed 17 points to the Jaguars.
Now, Jacksonville is a mess at 2-7 partly due to the critical errors and terrible play-calling that its offense suffers from. Critical wide receiver Christian Kirk also had a slow start to the season.
The Jaguars looked like they were going to light up the Dolphins, but after they brutally lost a fumble close to Miami's end zone they became very conservative and, for example, stopped going deep even though their quarterback loves throwing deep balls.
The takeaway here is that the return of guys like defensive tackle Zach Sieler and safety Jevon Holland would not suffice to prevent Miami from performing poorly against a dangerous offense.
The Rams' Dangerous Pass-Heavy Offense
Los Angeles' offense has transformed since its two top wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, returned from injury.
Since their return, the Rams scored 30 points against Minnesota's seventh-best scoring defense and 26 points, including overtime, against a Seattle team that they started slowly against.
They have a relatively pass-heavy offense, which is bad news for Miami's defense considering how it looked against the competent quarterbacks of Jacksonville (who is held back by his team's drops, fumbles, and incompetent play-calling), Buffalo, Seattle, and Arizona.
Arizona's Kyler Murray threw for a season-high 307 yards against this defense.
While one can dismiss this performance as the consequence of Miami's proclivity to blitz a lot in this game, Miami on the season has proven to blitz more than most teams, and Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford has earned excellent PFF grades against the blitz.
The Importance of Los Angeles' Rush Attack
The Rams did not do as well against Seattle as they did against Minnesota because Seattle had a healthy defensive tackle Byron Murphy II with whom it could stifle Los Angeles' ground game.
Whereas Rams' running back Kyren Williams averaged 4.2 YPC against the Vikings' highly-ranked run defense, he averaged 3.1 YPC against the Seahawks.
It would be important for Williams to perform well on Monday because, the saying goes, "a good running back is a quarterback's best friend."
A good running game gives the defense something else to worry about, so that the defense can't lock in on stopping the opposing pass attack. Strong running back play also makes play-action passing likelier to succeed.
Kyren Williams' Outlook
I like the Rams to thrive offensively on Monday in part because I like Kyren Williams to perform well.
Miami's run defense is vulnerable because its linebackers are rather mediocre and because it did not restock at defensive tackle after losing critical piece Christian Wilkins, whereas the
Seahawks could use their healthy defensive tackle to limit the Rams' rush attack.
Perhaps worst of all, its tackling is terrible, as evident in the gross number of yards that it allows after contact.
This is exactly what Williams can take advantage of.
To see a whole season's data: stats last year show his ability to break tackles and amass yards after contact. He averaged the most yards after contact per game.
Los Angeles' Improved Run Defense
The Rams have made significant progress on defense, as they are looking more and more like a viable playoff team.
First, they used to rank dead-last against the run.
Most recently, they held Seattle's healthy rush attack to 3.2 YPC. They are making significant strides in terms of rush yards allowed per game.
The Rams' Stronger Pass Defense
Moreover, they are allowing fewer points per game because they have greater play-making ability in their pass defense.
They were a team that got a lot of pressures but not enough sacks.
Now they are getting a lot of sacks, with youngsters like Braden Fiske and Jared Verse growing.
Both rookies have combined for 4.5 sacks in their last two games and will lead their pass rush against a Miami pass protection unit that ranks in the bottom half in terms of limiting the rate that its quarterback gets sacked.
The Rams' secondary is also taking strides with the stronger influence that safety Jaylen McCollough is exercising on games. He has four interceptions in his last three games.
Josh Wallace is another youngster who is playing a greater role, one in which he has done a great job of limiting catches and receiving yards when targeted.
This influx of young talent shows that the Rams' coaching staff forces its defenders to take accountability. Especially given the young talent on their team, they know that they need to play well in order to get to play more snaps.
Takeaway
The Rams are 2-0 SU and ATS since they got their top wide receivers back.
Their offense is now very dangerous. It will also be a balanced offense against Miami's group of poor tacklers.
Kupp and Nakua's return has also coincided with improvements in the Rams' defense, which will use its stronger run defense to make Miami's offense rather one-dimensional, which will use its vicious pass rush to make Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa uncomfortable in the pocket, and which will help boost its team's lead by forcing turnovers.
The Rams will win this game by more than a field goal, with their improved defense doing the most to keep this game under the posted total.
A good measure of running and a lack of big plays will further help to keep the final score lower than the posted total, which feels much too high.
Best Bet: Rams -2.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Under 50.5 at -110 with Bet365
Will Miami's Defense Improve?
In the last two weeks, Miami has allowed 28 points to Arizona and 30 to Buffalo.
Dolphins optimists believe, however, that their defense will improve.
They are banking on the return of multiple defensive players.
While on paper and in a video game the return of those players would make a big difference, player injuries are, generally speaking, a highly overrated factor unless they are star players or very good quarterbacks.
I contend that their return would not have a meaningful impact on this game's outcome.
Looking at Healthier Miami's Games
Miami's defense, even before it became as injury-laden as it has been since the second quarter of its game against Arizona, failed to inspire optimism.
Before playing Arizona, the Dolphins had the following three opponents: Indianapolis, New England, and Tennessee.
While they allowed few points to the Colts and Patriots, both of those teams were led by backup-caliber quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson and Jacoby Brissett, respectively.
The Titans were able to be conservative on offense and to take advantage of short field position to score 31 points.
Because, as I will explain, the Rams have a good offense, it is more meaningful to look at Miami's earlier games.
When the Dolphins' defense was healthier, Miami got to face a Seattle team that knew it could be conservative because Miami's starting quarterback was hurt.
The Seahawks still scored 24 points.
In their previous game, Miami conceded 31 points to a Buffalo team that coasted to victory.
Before that, in Week 1 against Jacksonville, the Dolphins allowed 17 points to the Jaguars.
Now, Jacksonville is a mess at 2-7 partly due to the critical errors and terrible play-calling that its offense suffers from. Critical wide receiver Christian Kirk also had a slow start to the season.
The Jaguars looked like they were going to light up the Dolphins, but after they brutally lost a fumble close to Miami's end zone they became very conservative and, for example, stopped going deep even though their quarterback loves throwing deep balls.
The takeaway here is that the return of guys like defensive tackle Zach Sieler and safety Jevon Holland would not suffice to prevent Miami from performing poorly against a dangerous offense.
The Rams' Dangerous Pass-Heavy Offense
Los Angeles' offense has transformed since its two top wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, returned from injury.
Since their return, the Rams scored 30 points against Minnesota's seventh-best scoring defense and 26 points, including overtime, against a Seattle team that they started slowly against.
They have a relatively pass-heavy offense, which is bad news for Miami's defense considering how it looked against the competent quarterbacks of Jacksonville (who is held back by his team's drops, fumbles, and incompetent play-calling), Buffalo, Seattle, and Arizona.
Arizona's Kyler Murray threw for a season-high 307 yards against this defense.
While one can dismiss this performance as the consequence of Miami's proclivity to blitz a lot in this game, Miami on the season has proven to blitz more than most teams, and Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford has earned excellent PFF grades against the blitz.
The Importance of Los Angeles' Rush Attack
The Rams did not do as well against Seattle as they did against Minnesota because Seattle had a healthy defensive tackle Byron Murphy II with whom it could stifle Los Angeles' ground game.
Whereas Rams' running back Kyren Williams averaged 4.2 YPC against the Vikings' highly-ranked run defense, he averaged 3.1 YPC against the Seahawks.
It would be important for Williams to perform well on Monday because, the saying goes, "a good running back is a quarterback's best friend."
A good running game gives the defense something else to worry about, so that the defense can't lock in on stopping the opposing pass attack. Strong running back play also makes play-action passing likelier to succeed.
Kyren Williams' Outlook
I like the Rams to thrive offensively on Monday in part because I like Kyren Williams to perform well.
Miami's run defense is vulnerable because its linebackers are rather mediocre and because it did not restock at defensive tackle after losing critical piece Christian Wilkins, whereas the
Seahawks could use their healthy defensive tackle to limit the Rams' rush attack.
Perhaps worst of all, its tackling is terrible, as evident in the gross number of yards that it allows after contact.
This is exactly what Williams can take advantage of.
To see a whole season's data: stats last year show his ability to break tackles and amass yards after contact. He averaged the most yards after contact per game.
Los Angeles' Improved Run Defense
The Rams have made significant progress on defense, as they are looking more and more like a viable playoff team.
First, they used to rank dead-last against the run.
Most recently, they held Seattle's healthy rush attack to 3.2 YPC. They are making significant strides in terms of rush yards allowed per game.
The Rams' Stronger Pass Defense
Moreover, they are allowing fewer points per game because they have greater play-making ability in their pass defense.
They were a team that got a lot of pressures but not enough sacks.
Now they are getting a lot of sacks, with youngsters like Braden Fiske and Jared Verse growing.
Both rookies have combined for 4.5 sacks in their last two games and will lead their pass rush against a Miami pass protection unit that ranks in the bottom half in terms of limiting the rate that its quarterback gets sacked.
The Rams' secondary is also taking strides with the stronger influence that safety Jaylen McCollough is exercising on games. He has four interceptions in his last three games.
Josh Wallace is another youngster who is playing a greater role, one in which he has done a great job of limiting catches and receiving yards when targeted.
This influx of young talent shows that the Rams' coaching staff forces its defenders to take accountability. Especially given the young talent on their team, they know that they need to play well in order to get to play more snaps.
Takeaway
The Rams are 2-0 SU and ATS since they got their top wide receivers back.
Their offense is now very dangerous. It will also be a balanced offense against Miami's group of poor tacklers.
Kupp and Nakua's return has also coincided with improvements in the Rams' defense, which will use its stronger run defense to make Miami's offense rather one-dimensional, which will use its vicious pass rush to make Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa uncomfortable in the pocket, and which will help boost its team's lead by forcing turnovers.
The Rams will win this game by more than a field goal, with their improved defense doing the most to keep this game under the posted total.
A good measure of running and a lack of big plays will further help to keep the final score lower than the posted total, which feels much too high.
Best Bet: Rams -2.5 at -110 with Bet365 & Under 50.5 at -110 with Bet365
