Dolphins vs. Chiefs Wild Card Game Odds & Picks: Miami Doesn't Stand A Chance
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 13, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Miami vs. Playoff Teams
Miami is worth fading when it plays against good teams.
The Dolphins are 1-5 against playoff teams with the one win coming at home against a Dallas team that is much worse on the road than at home, having lost by 12 in Arizona, by 32 in San Francisco, and by 21 in Buffalo.
On the road, Miami is not a good team.
The Dolphins lost by 28 in Buffalo, by 14 in Philadelphia, and by 37 in Baltimore. These aren't just losses: they are blowouts.
For comparison's sake, the lowly Commanders lost by 34 at home to Buffalo, by three in Philadelphia, and by 35 in Dallas. Miami on the road is not far off from the Commanders.
Miami's road wins have come against weak competition – they edged out the Chargers, won by a touchdown in New England when the weather was warm in Week 2, and beat the Tim Boyle-led Jets and Commanders.
Cold Weather
On top of being utterly unreliable against good teams in general, Miami is unreliable in the cold.
In Kansas City, it is going to be around zero degrees.
Conversely, in Miami it will be around 70 degrees.
So we are talking about a 70-degree differential that Dolphins players will feel acutely, especially the ones who will likely try to play while banged-up – their top two wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and their starting running back Raheem Mostert are dealing with leg injuries – Waddle and Mostert did not play last Sunday and Tyreek was seen limping on the field.
But the Dolphins player most heavily impacted by the cold will quite possibly be quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
In his career, Tua is 0-4 in sub-45 degree weather.
His passer rating in these four games is 71.2, which is 25.9 points lower than his career average.
Miami has lost its last ten games in sub-40 degree weather, and Tua's inability to handle the cold contributes to this trend.
Chiefs Pass Defense
Besides struggling with the weather, Tua will struggle with the Chiefs' pass defense.
Kansas City's secondary is excellent, as it ranks fourth in passing yards allowed per game.
The Chiefs have the cornerback play to handle even a healthy Tyreek.
When the Chiefs beat the Dolphins in Germany, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed helped limit Tyreek to 62 yards.
While Kansas City didn't have to worry about running back De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle played and managed 20 fewer receiving yards than Tyreek.
Despite having his top two wide receivers healthy and despite getting to play with a 21-point deficit, Tua passed for fewer than 200 yards in that game.
Miami's Defense
While the Dolphins' offense has suffered against playoff teams on the road, scoring no more than 20 points against them, arguably their defense has suffered the most, as especially evident when they allowed 48 points early in the season in Buffalo and 56 points on December 31 in Baltimore.
The Dolphins allowed 21 points to the Chiefs in Germany and, given the weather conditions, stand to give up many more points in this game.
Miami's Injuries
When they allowed 21 points to the Chiefs, they were much healthier.
One of their two sacks was achieved by top pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who is injured.
Top cornerback Xavien Howard played, yet he is not expected to suit up for this game.
Moreover, they had healthy linebackers, whereas now they are down three linebackers.
Rashee Rice
When the Dolphins allowed 21 points to the Chiefs, they were also playing at a time preceding the ascension of Kansas City's top wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Hence, Rice barely did anything in that game.
But Rice, now a consistently productive force, has now emerged as Patrick Mahomes' top target.
In his last game, he achieved a season-high 127 receiving yards. He is getting targeted way more often to the benefit of Kansas City's offense.
Kansas City's Offense
Rice and star tight end Travis Kelce will be too much in the passing game for a Dolphins secondary that, at cornerback, suffers a significant drop-off after Jalen Ramsey, as long as Howard is still hurt.
As Baltimore's Justice Hill among other running backs have shown, Miam is also vulnerable to pass-catching running backs.
So Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is trending upwards, is primed for a good game.
Fellow running back Isiah Pacheco is powerful and notoriously tough to bring down, especially for a finesse team like Miami that is missing linebackers.
Team Total
While bettors have benefited from playing Chiefs "unders," taking advantage of their strong public reputation, this inclination is overplayed by now, as everyone is well aware that Kansas City's offense generally isn't as dominant as it used to be.
But the Chiefs remain capable of scoring a lot under the right circumstances, as evident when they recently scored 25 against the Bengals and 27 in New England.
Miami on the road, in cold weather, beat up, matching up poorly will be a punching bag for Kansas City's playoff-ready offense.
Unable to keep up mostly thanks to the Chiefs' top-caliber pass defense, the Dolphins will lose in a blowout.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Chiefs team total over 24.5 at +105 with BetOnline
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 13, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
Miami vs. Playoff Teams
Miami is worth fading when it plays against good teams.
The Dolphins are 1-5 against playoff teams with the one win coming at home against a Dallas team that is much worse on the road than at home, having lost by 12 in Arizona, by 32 in San Francisco, and by 21 in Buffalo.
On the road, Miami is not a good team.
The Dolphins lost by 28 in Buffalo, by 14 in Philadelphia, and by 37 in Baltimore. These aren't just losses: they are blowouts.
For comparison's sake, the lowly Commanders lost by 34 at home to Buffalo, by three in Philadelphia, and by 35 in Dallas. Miami on the road is not far off from the Commanders.
Miami's road wins have come against weak competition – they edged out the Chargers, won by a touchdown in New England when the weather was warm in Week 2, and beat the Tim Boyle-led Jets and Commanders.
Cold Weather
On top of being utterly unreliable against good teams in general, Miami is unreliable in the cold.
In Kansas City, it is going to be around zero degrees.
Conversely, in Miami it will be around 70 degrees.
So we are talking about a 70-degree differential that Dolphins players will feel acutely, especially the ones who will likely try to play while banged-up – their top two wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and their starting running back Raheem Mostert are dealing with leg injuries – Waddle and Mostert did not play last Sunday and Tyreek was seen limping on the field.
But the Dolphins player most heavily impacted by the cold will quite possibly be quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
In his career, Tua is 0-4 in sub-45 degree weather.
His passer rating in these four games is 71.2, which is 25.9 points lower than his career average.
Miami has lost its last ten games in sub-40 degree weather, and Tua's inability to handle the cold contributes to this trend.
Chiefs Pass Defense
Besides struggling with the weather, Tua will struggle with the Chiefs' pass defense.
Kansas City's secondary is excellent, as it ranks fourth in passing yards allowed per game.
The Chiefs have the cornerback play to handle even a healthy Tyreek.
When the Chiefs beat the Dolphins in Germany, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed helped limit Tyreek to 62 yards.
While Kansas City didn't have to worry about running back De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle played and managed 20 fewer receiving yards than Tyreek.
Despite having his top two wide receivers healthy and despite getting to play with a 21-point deficit, Tua passed for fewer than 200 yards in that game.
Miami's Defense
While the Dolphins' offense has suffered against playoff teams on the road, scoring no more than 20 points against them, arguably their defense has suffered the most, as especially evident when they allowed 48 points early in the season in Buffalo and 56 points on December 31 in Baltimore.
The Dolphins allowed 21 points to the Chiefs in Germany and, given the weather conditions, stand to give up many more points in this game.
Miami's Injuries
When they allowed 21 points to the Chiefs, they were much healthier.
One of their two sacks was achieved by top pass rusher Bradley Chubb, who is injured.
Top cornerback Xavien Howard played, yet he is not expected to suit up for this game.
Moreover, they had healthy linebackers, whereas now they are down three linebackers.
Rashee Rice
When the Dolphins allowed 21 points to the Chiefs, they were also playing at a time preceding the ascension of Kansas City's top wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Hence, Rice barely did anything in that game.
But Rice, now a consistently productive force, has now emerged as Patrick Mahomes' top target.
In his last game, he achieved a season-high 127 receiving yards. He is getting targeted way more often to the benefit of Kansas City's offense.
Kansas City's Offense
Rice and star tight end Travis Kelce will be too much in the passing game for a Dolphins secondary that, at cornerback, suffers a significant drop-off after Jalen Ramsey, as long as Howard is still hurt.
As Baltimore's Justice Hill among other running backs have shown, Miam is also vulnerable to pass-catching running backs.
So Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is trending upwards, is primed for a good game.
Fellow running back Isiah Pacheco is powerful and notoriously tough to bring down, especially for a finesse team like Miami that is missing linebackers.
Team Total
While bettors have benefited from playing Chiefs "unders," taking advantage of their strong public reputation, this inclination is overplayed by now, as everyone is well aware that Kansas City's offense generally isn't as dominant as it used to be.
But the Chiefs remain capable of scoring a lot under the right circumstances, as evident when they recently scored 25 against the Bengals and 27 in New England.
Miami on the road, in cold weather, beat up, matching up poorly will be a punching bag for Kansas City's playoff-ready offense.
Unable to keep up mostly thanks to the Chiefs' top-caliber pass defense, the Dolphins will lose in a blowout.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Chiefs team total over 24.5 at +105 with BetOnline
