NFL Parlay For Sunday’s Games at +248 Odds
Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals
November 8, 2020 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Overrated
Oddsmakers reflect the love that bettors are showing for the Dolphins. Whereas Arizona opened as six-point favorites, this number is down to 4.5.
This love is misguided. I imagine that it stems largely from Miami’s most recent performance. Last Sunday, Miami defeated the Rams 28-17.
While this win looks impressive on paper, one has to remember that the Rams out-gained Miami 471-145 in terms of yardage.
Pedestrian Offense
What that box score does suggest is that, for scoring, Miami is too reliant on defense. It is absurd to rely overly on defense for one’s offensive output.
Currently, Miami ranks 28th in offense, as measured by average yards per game.
Part of Miami’s problem on offense is new: it is breaking in a rookie quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa is raw and fragile. Against the Rams, he barely averaged over four YPA as he accumulated 93 passing yards on 22 attempts.
While he may be more confident and more aggressive in his second game — it’s hard not to be more aggressive in terms of average YPA — questions remain.
Who will he throw to? Which wide receiver will he favor? Any wide receiver on Miami’s roster would be hard-pressed to establish himself as a number one receiver on another team besides maybe another pedestrian one like the Jets.
Also, who will support Tua in the run game? Myles Gaskin is currently Miami’s leading running back. But he only averages 3.9 YPC.
It’s All About Miami’s Defense
If you like Miami, you aren’t betting on it for its offense. But rather, you are betting on the Dolphins for their defense.
So my main point is that we should absolutely dislike Miami’s defense. Here’s the reason why:
Mobile Quarterbacks
Don’t be misled by any positive statistics that you may encounter about Miami’s pass defense. These give us a wrong impression for Sunday’s game.
When Miami opened the season against New England, mobile quarterback Cam Newton had his strongest performance in terms of passer rating. He also ran for 75 yards.
Then, the Dolphins faced Buffalo. Bill mobile quarterback Josh Allen enjoyed his strongest performance of the season in terms of passer rating.
Allen was a big reason why Miami allowed a season-high 31 points.
Actually, one other team produced 31 points against the Dolphins. That team was Seattle, which is led by mobile quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson produced his second-highest passer rating of the season in his 360-yard performance.
The point is: Miami struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
Looking at Arizona, we see an absolute mobile quarterback in dual-threat Kyler Murray.
Murray is extremely fast — his best 40-yard dash time is reportedly under 4.4 — and he’s very accurate while quickly on the move. He’s completing 66.8 percent of his passes and has rushed for over 400 yards on the season.
He also has an elite wide receiver to throw to in three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins.
Given Murray’s favorable match-up, we can’t expect the Dolphins to remotely keep pace with the Cardinals.
Best Bet: Cardinals -4.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Bye Week Trend
I fear that bettors have developed a comfortable habit of thoughtlessly fading Jacksonville.
But for this upcoming contest, we need to look at how the Doug Marrone-coached Jaguars tend to perform after a bye week.
In 2017, the Jaguars nearly tripled the spread against Cincinnati. In 2018, they halted a streak of SU and ATS losses by pushing at Indianapolis in a 29-26 loss.
While 2019 presents an exception to this trend, it’s hard to take this counterexample seriously.
In 2019, Jacksonville had some serious locker room issues which it cleaned up by getting rid of toxic, me-first guys like Leonard Fournette.
This counterexample represented continuity of fundamental, effort-base problems that Jacksonville revealed before the bye week.
But this year, Jacksonville is competing. In its last contest, Jacksonville remained wire-to-wire with the favored Chargers until they pulled away.
So we should continue to see a competing Jacksonville and, given previous efforts after a bye week, a Jacksonville that is better than usual.
Jake Luton
One element of surprise for Jacksonville will be quarterback Jake Luton, who is replacing injured starter Gardner Minshew.
This will be the rookie’s NFL debut. So the Texans will have negligible film on him
Importantly, he is built differently than Minshew.
Whereas Minshew likes to make things happen with his legs, often bailing too soon in the face of pressure, Luton is characteristically a pocket passer.
While Minshew’s low aggression rate per Next Gen Stats articulates his proclivity to play conservatively and check down, Luton is known for having a big and strong arm.
So expect more aggression and more deep balls from a Jaguar pass attack that has the personnel to excel vertically.
He should love throwing to DJ Chark, whose skill set Luton can maximize. Chark is a favored target on deep passes given his superior speed — he ranks above the 90th percentile in 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score.
Luton will have a successful debut outing against a Texan secondary that ranks 23rd in pass defense according to Pro Football Outsider’s metrics.
Can Houston Score Enough?
Houston’s offensive issues revolve around their inability to replace DeAndre Hopkins. His replacement has had to step into the top wide receiver role.
Without Hopkins, the Texans won’t exploit Jacksonville’s vulnerability in the secondary.
Rookie cornerback CJ Henderson will handle the best that Houston has to offer.
In terms of opposing yards allowed and times targeted, Henderson is improving. He’s only really struggled against higher-level guys like Keenan Allen, guys who perform on a whole different level than Will Fuller and whatever other wide receivers the Texans have to offer.
Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5 at -128 with BetOnline
Parlay: Cardinals -4.5 at -105 & Jaguars +7.5 at -128 at 248 Odds With BetOnline
Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals
November 8, 2020 at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Overrated
Oddsmakers reflect the love that bettors are showing for the Dolphins. Whereas Arizona opened as six-point favorites, this number is down to 4.5.
This love is misguided. I imagine that it stems largely from Miami’s most recent performance. Last Sunday, Miami defeated the Rams 28-17.
While this win looks impressive on paper, one has to remember that the Rams out-gained Miami 471-145 in terms of yardage.
Pedestrian Offense
What that box score does suggest is that, for scoring, Miami is too reliant on defense. It is absurd to rely overly on defense for one’s offensive output.
Currently, Miami ranks 28th in offense, as measured by average yards per game.
Part of Miami’s problem on offense is new: it is breaking in a rookie quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa is raw and fragile. Against the Rams, he barely averaged over four YPA as he accumulated 93 passing yards on 22 attempts.
While he may be more confident and more aggressive in his second game — it’s hard not to be more aggressive in terms of average YPA — questions remain.
Who will he throw to? Which wide receiver will he favor? Any wide receiver on Miami’s roster would be hard-pressed to establish himself as a number one receiver on another team besides maybe another pedestrian one like the Jets.
Also, who will support Tua in the run game? Myles Gaskin is currently Miami’s leading running back. But he only averages 3.9 YPC.
It’s All About Miami’s Defense
If you like Miami, you aren’t betting on it for its offense. But rather, you are betting on the Dolphins for their defense.
So my main point is that we should absolutely dislike Miami’s defense. Here’s the reason why:
Mobile Quarterbacks
Don’t be misled by any positive statistics that you may encounter about Miami’s pass defense. These give us a wrong impression for Sunday’s game.
When Miami opened the season against New England, mobile quarterback Cam Newton had his strongest performance in terms of passer rating. He also ran for 75 yards.
Then, the Dolphins faced Buffalo. Bill mobile quarterback Josh Allen enjoyed his strongest performance of the season in terms of passer rating.
Allen was a big reason why Miami allowed a season-high 31 points.
Actually, one other team produced 31 points against the Dolphins. That team was Seattle, which is led by mobile quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson produced his second-highest passer rating of the season in his 360-yard performance.
The point is: Miami struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
Looking at Arizona, we see an absolute mobile quarterback in dual-threat Kyler Murray.
Murray is extremely fast — his best 40-yard dash time is reportedly under 4.4 — and he’s very accurate while quickly on the move. He’s completing 66.8 percent of his passes and has rushed for over 400 yards on the season.
He also has an elite wide receiver to throw to in three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins.
Given Murray’s favorable match-up, we can’t expect the Dolphins to remotely keep pace with the Cardinals.
Best Bet: Cardinals -4.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 8, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida
Bye Week Trend
I fear that bettors have developed a comfortable habit of thoughtlessly fading Jacksonville.
But for this upcoming contest, we need to look at how the Doug Marrone-coached Jaguars tend to perform after a bye week.
In 2017, the Jaguars nearly tripled the spread against Cincinnati. In 2018, they halted a streak of SU and ATS losses by pushing at Indianapolis in a 29-26 loss.
While 2019 presents an exception to this trend, it’s hard to take this counterexample seriously.
In 2019, Jacksonville had some serious locker room issues which it cleaned up by getting rid of toxic, me-first guys like Leonard Fournette.
This counterexample represented continuity of fundamental, effort-base problems that Jacksonville revealed before the bye week.
But this year, Jacksonville is competing. In its last contest, Jacksonville remained wire-to-wire with the favored Chargers until they pulled away.
So we should continue to see a competing Jacksonville and, given previous efforts after a bye week, a Jacksonville that is better than usual.
Jake Luton
One element of surprise for Jacksonville will be quarterback Jake Luton, who is replacing injured starter Gardner Minshew.
This will be the rookie’s NFL debut. So the Texans will have negligible film on him
Importantly, he is built differently than Minshew.
Whereas Minshew likes to make things happen with his legs, often bailing too soon in the face of pressure, Luton is characteristically a pocket passer.
While Minshew’s low aggression rate per Next Gen Stats articulates his proclivity to play conservatively and check down, Luton is known for having a big and strong arm.
So expect more aggression and more deep balls from a Jaguar pass attack that has the personnel to excel vertically.
He should love throwing to DJ Chark, whose skill set Luton can maximize. Chark is a favored target on deep passes given his superior speed — he ranks above the 90th percentile in 40-yard dash, speed score, and burst score.
Luton will have a successful debut outing against a Texan secondary that ranks 23rd in pass defense according to Pro Football Outsider’s metrics.
Can Houston Score Enough?
Houston’s offensive issues revolve around their inability to replace DeAndre Hopkins. His replacement has had to step into the top wide receiver role.
Without Hopkins, the Texans won’t exploit Jacksonville’s vulnerability in the secondary.
Rookie cornerback CJ Henderson will handle the best that Houston has to offer.
In terms of opposing yards allowed and times targeted, Henderson is improving. He’s only really struggled against higher-level guys like Keenan Allen, guys who perform on a whole different level than Will Fuller and whatever other wide receivers the Texans have to offer.
Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5 at -128 with BetOnline
Parlay: Cardinals -4.5 at -105 & Jaguars +7.5 at -128 at 248 Odds With BetOnline
