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Strong Pitching Match-up in Game 4 Will Keep L.A. Alive Against Boston
The Dodgers host Boston for Game 4 of the World Series on Saturday at 8:09 ET on FOX. The Dodgers need to win this game to get back into the series. A beneficial pitching match-up will work in their favor.
Game 4: Boston at Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, 8:09 ET (FOX)
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML
Ageless wonder Rich HIll (11-5, 3.66 ERA) is just the man who L.A. wants to rely on to help them stay alive in the series. The 38 year-old has significant playoff experience and a history of playoff success. In 44 postseason innings, his ERA is 3.27. He’s been a reliable bet for the last seven weeks. The Dodgers have won the last seven games in which he’s started, yielding +7 units.
Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches compose 97 percent of his arsenal. Even though he relies so heavily on both pitches, he’s still successful because of how effective they are. His fastball yields a .215 opposing BA. It is elusive with strong glove-side motion. He also commands it well, throwing a higher rate of strikes with it and distributing its location among all parts of the plate. His fastball is also deceptive in that he puts a high spin rate on it, so that it has the appearance of rising action. As a result, the batter struggles to track his fastball, tending to swing through it or underneath it.
The curveball is Hill’s most famous pitch. It's so hard to hit mostly because of its movement. It has extreme arm-side movement and very strong negative vertical movement so that it’s both elusive and tricky. Even though he throws a higher rate of balls with it, he still often induces the batter to swing because the batter thinks that he sees a hittable pitch. But, the movement surprises him and he only makes soft contact with this pitch and usually grounds out if he doesn’t strike out. Hill concentrates its location low in the zone, pinpointing it with 12.5 percent frequency in the lowest-left corner of the zone. Yet he commands his curve so well that he can also often elevate it, which is rare and which helps him stay unpredictable.
His curveball plays well off his fastball because he tends to elevate the latter and so he changes the batter’s eye level by throwing a low curveball. He also introduces a change of pace with a 13 mph velocity differential relative to his fastball.that keeps the batter off-balance. He also remains unpredictable by working backwards, often starting with his curveball and finishing with his fastball.
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Boston’s lineup has had tremendous success, but mostly against right-handed pitching. It’s yielding 30 fewer units against southpaws than right-handed pitchers. Boston matches up poorly with Hill. It ranks 26th in slugging against Hill’s primary pitches, the fastball and curveball, from lefties, although they haven’t faced a curveball like Hill’s.
Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81 ERA) had benefitted from his team producing an above-average number of run in his starts. But in L.A. against Rich Hill, Boston won’t score much. Lack of run support will be problematic for Eovaldi because Boston has lost his last seven starts in which Boston produced fewer than six runs.
Eovaldi matches up poorly with L.A. He relies primarily on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches compose 73 percent of his arsenal. His key feature is velocity. His fastball, for example, averages 97 mph. The Dodgers, though, rank third in slugging against the 96-100 mph fastball from righties. Also, they rank fourth in slugging against the fastball and cutter from righties. Watch out for Brian Dozier, who is 5-for-15 (.333) with a homer against Eovaldi. Also watch out for Max Muncy, who slugged .601 against righties and .624 at home in the regular season.
Strong Pitching Match-up in Game 4 Will Keep L.A. Alive Against Boston
The Dodgers host Boston for Game 4 of the World Series on Saturday at 8:09 ET on FOX. The Dodgers need to win this game to get back into the series. A beneficial pitching match-up will work in their favor.
Game 4: Boston at Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, 8:09 ET (FOX)
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML
Ageless wonder Rich HIll (11-5, 3.66 ERA) is just the man who L.A. wants to rely on to help them stay alive in the series. The 38 year-old has significant playoff experience and a history of playoff success. In 44 postseason innings, his ERA is 3.27. He’s been a reliable bet for the last seven weeks. The Dodgers have won the last seven games in which he’s started, yielding +7 units.
Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches compose 97 percent of his arsenal. Even though he relies so heavily on both pitches, he’s still successful because of how effective they are. His fastball yields a .215 opposing BA. It is elusive with strong glove-side motion. He also commands it well, throwing a higher rate of strikes with it and distributing its location among all parts of the plate. His fastball is also deceptive in that he puts a high spin rate on it, so that it has the appearance of rising action. As a result, the batter struggles to track his fastball, tending to swing through it or underneath it.
The curveball is Hill’s most famous pitch. It's so hard to hit mostly because of its movement. It has extreme arm-side movement and very strong negative vertical movement so that it’s both elusive and tricky. Even though he throws a higher rate of balls with it, he still often induces the batter to swing because the batter thinks that he sees a hittable pitch. But, the movement surprises him and he only makes soft contact with this pitch and usually grounds out if he doesn’t strike out. Hill concentrates its location low in the zone, pinpointing it with 12.5 percent frequency in the lowest-left corner of the zone. Yet he commands his curve so well that he can also often elevate it, which is rare and which helps him stay unpredictable.
His curveball plays well off his fastball because he tends to elevate the latter and so he changes the batter’s eye level by throwing a low curveball. He also introduces a change of pace with a 13 mph velocity differential relative to his fastball.that keeps the batter off-balance. He also remains unpredictable by working backwards, often starting with his curveball and finishing with his fastball.
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Boston’s lineup has had tremendous success, but mostly against right-handed pitching. It’s yielding 30 fewer units against southpaws than right-handed pitchers. Boston matches up poorly with Hill. It ranks 26th in slugging against Hill’s primary pitches, the fastball and curveball, from lefties, although they haven’t faced a curveball like Hill’s.
Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81 ERA) had benefitted from his team producing an above-average number of run in his starts. But in L.A. against Rich Hill, Boston won’t score much. Lack of run support will be problematic for Eovaldi because Boston has lost his last seven starts in which Boston produced fewer than six runs.
Eovaldi matches up poorly with L.A. He relies primarily on a fastball-cutter combo. Both pitches compose 73 percent of his arsenal. His key feature is velocity. His fastball, for example, averages 97 mph. The Dodgers, though, rank third in slugging against the 96-100 mph fastball from righties. Also, they rank fourth in slugging against the fastball and cutter from righties. Watch out for Brian Dozier, who is 5-for-15 (.333) with a homer against Eovaldi. Also watch out for Max Muncy, who slugged .601 against righties and .624 at home in the regular season.
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