The Betting Total Can’t Be Low Enough in Phillies-Dodgers Duel
The Dodgers close a four-game home series with the Phillies tonight at 7:35 ET. Two aces duel and promise not to disappoint „under“ bettors.
Philadelphia Phillies (30-23, 24-25-4 O/U) at Los Angeles Dodgers (26-30, 26-26-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Oddsmakers are interested in making money for themselves, which is why they make life hard for bettors who simply back big-time names. Clayton Kershaw, for instance, is the third-least profitable pitcher, yielding -9.3 units. So normally I hate to go „under“ with big-name pitchers, but special circumstances call for bettors not to overthink this one.
LA’s Kershaw (1-5, 2.86 ERA) returns from a month-long DL stint. In 32 starts with 6+ days of rest, Kershaw’s career ERA is 1.69. Kershaw also tends to buckle down after being embarrassed by allowing multiple homers in a game. Since May of 2015, in seven games following a multi-homer outing, Kershaw allowed one run in six games and two runs in the other. Tonight, Kershaw will be fresh, healthy, and extra motivated.
In recent years, Kershaw has reduced the usage of his fastball, which opponents have performed better against as it loses velocity and movement over time. But he still relies on it frequently: overall, to start batters off, and to get ahead in the count. Despite his deteriorated fastball, he’s still formidable. He tends to allow singles with it and minimizes danger by upping its perceived velocity and reducing his opposing fastball BA by .27 with RSIP. His velocity drop, like his last two starts before hitting the DL, probably derive partially from injury struggles. But he can’t be more injury-free tonight.
By upping his slider and curveball usage, he’s become less predictable with his pitch selection. He uses his slider with greater frequency when he’s behind in the count and induces a higher percentage of ground balls by locating his slider—like his other pitches-- lower in the strike zone. He even mixes in a curveball. Opponents’ ISO (slugging - BA; measures extra-base hits) is under .150 against both pitches.
Kersh last faced the Phillies in September, when he shut them out through five innings. They rank 26th in slugging against the fastball thrown by southpaws with 90-94 mph velocity, 25th in the past two weeks. Overall, they’re batting .203 against southpaw starters in the past two weeks and will have to face Kershaw without injured slugger Rhys Hoskins.
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Budding Phillies ace Aaron Nola (6-2, 2.27 ERA) could teach Kershaw a thing or two. Velocity has never been an issue for Nola because it’s never been a big part of his game. Instead, he relies on deception. For example, he throws his fastball and sinker from extremely similar vertical and horizontal release points to mask which pitch is approaching batters, whose ISO is lower than .050 against both pitches combined. His most famous pitch is the curveball, which distinguishes itself with extreme horizontal and vertical movement, velocity differential relative to his other pitches that throws hitters off-balance, and a low vertical release point that disturbs the batter’s perception, all of which create a .186 opposing BA. HIs consistent vertical release points indicate comfort with delivery and predictable consistency.
In five consecutive starts, Nola has allowed fewer than two runs through five innings. His elite status supersedes typical capping considerations. For example, Toronto ranks sixth in slugging combined against Nola’s four pitches, but Nola just no-hit Toronto through six innings. Dodger bats are anyhow due for a let-down today. In their past four games after producing more than five runs in the previous game, the Dodgers average less than one run through five innings.
In 57 combined career at-bats against either pitcher, LA and Philly lineups have mustered seven hits, five of which were singles.
Going forward, look to fade Kershaw. But the spot is perfect for him tonight and Nola will play his part in the 1H „under."
The Dodgers close a four-game home series with the Phillies tonight at 7:35 ET. Two aces duel and promise not to disappoint „under“ bettors.
Philadelphia Phillies (30-23, 24-25-4 O/U) at Los Angeles Dodgers (26-30, 26-26-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Oddsmakers are interested in making money for themselves, which is why they make life hard for bettors who simply back big-time names. Clayton Kershaw, for instance, is the third-least profitable pitcher, yielding -9.3 units. So normally I hate to go „under“ with big-name pitchers, but special circumstances call for bettors not to overthink this one.
LA’s Kershaw (1-5, 2.86 ERA) returns from a month-long DL stint. In 32 starts with 6+ days of rest, Kershaw’s career ERA is 1.69. Kershaw also tends to buckle down after being embarrassed by allowing multiple homers in a game. Since May of 2015, in seven games following a multi-homer outing, Kershaw allowed one run in six games and two runs in the other. Tonight, Kershaw will be fresh, healthy, and extra motivated.
In recent years, Kershaw has reduced the usage of his fastball, which opponents have performed better against as it loses velocity and movement over time. But he still relies on it frequently: overall, to start batters off, and to get ahead in the count. Despite his deteriorated fastball, he’s still formidable. He tends to allow singles with it and minimizes danger by upping its perceived velocity and reducing his opposing fastball BA by .27 with RSIP. His velocity drop, like his last two starts before hitting the DL, probably derive partially from injury struggles. But he can’t be more injury-free tonight.
By upping his slider and curveball usage, he’s become less predictable with his pitch selection. He uses his slider with greater frequency when he’s behind in the count and induces a higher percentage of ground balls by locating his slider—like his other pitches-- lower in the strike zone. He even mixes in a curveball. Opponents’ ISO (slugging - BA; measures extra-base hits) is under .150 against both pitches.
Kersh last faced the Phillies in September, when he shut them out through five innings. They rank 26th in slugging against the fastball thrown by southpaws with 90-94 mph velocity, 25th in the past two weeks. Overall, they’re batting .203 against southpaw starters in the past two weeks and will have to face Kershaw without injured slugger Rhys Hoskins.
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Budding Phillies ace Aaron Nola (6-2, 2.27 ERA) could teach Kershaw a thing or two. Velocity has never been an issue for Nola because it’s never been a big part of his game. Instead, he relies on deception. For example, he throws his fastball and sinker from extremely similar vertical and horizontal release points to mask which pitch is approaching batters, whose ISO is lower than .050 against both pitches combined. His most famous pitch is the curveball, which distinguishes itself with extreme horizontal and vertical movement, velocity differential relative to his other pitches that throws hitters off-balance, and a low vertical release point that disturbs the batter’s perception, all of which create a .186 opposing BA. HIs consistent vertical release points indicate comfort with delivery and predictable consistency.
In five consecutive starts, Nola has allowed fewer than two runs through five innings. His elite status supersedes typical capping considerations. For example, Toronto ranks sixth in slugging combined against Nola’s four pitches, but Nola just no-hit Toronto through six innings. Dodger bats are anyhow due for a let-down today. In their past four games after producing more than five runs in the previous game, the Dodgers average less than one run through five innings.
In 57 combined career at-bats against either pitcher, LA and Philly lineups have mustered seven hits, five of which were singles.
Going forward, look to fade Kershaw. But the spot is perfect for him tonight and Nola will play his part in the 1H „under."
