Dodgers vs. Mets Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Sunday, August 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Max Scherzer's Great Season
One might look at the odds and feel surprised that a road team is favored so heavily against a squad with a winning record.
But in order to recognize the justifiability of favoring the Dodgers so heavily, one has to consider the season that starting pitcher Max Scherzer is enjoying
Scherzer's current ERA, 2.67, is one of the lowest ERAs that he's produced in any season of his already storied career.
He has kept his strikeout rate about as high as it was last year while he's drastically reduced the rate at which he's walking batters.
Even more impressive is the effectivity of his pitches.
Many pitchers primarily throw a fastball. But many of those pitchers only throw a serviceable fastball, a fastball that is decent enough, and rely instead on other pitches when opposing baserunners reach scoring position.
Scherzer is different in that he can fully rely on his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.
This season, his fastball is currently yielding a .204 BA and, outside of July, its slugging rate has likewise been superb.
His fastball is difficult for batters to track as a result of its above-average movement and very high spin rate.
The consistency with which he throws this pitch along the edges of the strike zone likely explains why specifically this season his fastball enjoys its highest whiff rate out of any season in Scherzer's career.
Scherzer's unique fastball and his plethora of supporting quality pitches make him a top-caliber pitcher this season (and every season).
Scherzer's Great Spot
On top of enjoying a great season, Scherzer is in a good spot right now.
For starters, his form is strong. In a Dodger uniform, he has allowed two earned runs in 10.2 innings. He's allowed a combined total of three runs in his past three starts.
Scherzer also couldn't be fresher today because he only threw 3.1 innings in his last start. He could have lasted longer, of course. But a long rain delay prevented him from returning to the mound and building off of his shutout, six-strikeout effort.
Moreover, he pitches in a venue tonight that is historically favorable to him.
In 13 career starts in New York's Citi Field, Scherzer boasts a 2.08 ERA.
So, despite being at home, the Mets are disadvantaged. The fact that oddsmakers are favoring L.A. less heavily simply for being the road team makes the Dodgers more enticing to back.
Among others, look for Brandon Nimmo to struggle. He is 4-for-24 (.167) with 14 strikeouts in his career against the Dodger star.
Carlos Carrasco
Met starter Carlos Carrasco would love to bounce back from his last start in which he allowed four earned runs in one inning to Washington before being stopped by a rain delay.
Carrasco's pitching arsenal is more balanced than Scherzer's, but with negative consequences for him.
He throws four different pitches with over 17-percent frequency: a fastball, change-up, sinker, and slider.
His fastball and change-up are both yielding a slugging rate of well over .800.
While his other two pitches are stronger, they only make up 56.3-percent of his arsenal combined.
This means that nearly half of his arsenal consists in pitches that look extremely vulnerable.
Carrasco vs. Dodger Batters
Dodger batters match up very well against Carrasco. They rank sixth in slugging .444 against his four favorite pitches from righties combined.
Look out for Trea Turner, for example. He is 2-for-3 (.667) with a double in his career against Carrasco.
The Verdict
Dodger relievers -- including two with ERA's well below 3.00 -- did not throw many pitches yesterday.
So there is plenty of quality pitchers fresh and fresh enough to secure the lead that Los Angeles will gain as a result of Scherzer's continual dominance and the lineup's advantage against Carrasco.
L.A. currently enjoys a 6-1 run, which they will extend by winning tonight's game by multiple runs.
For the above reasons, take the Dodgers on the run-line.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL at -103 at Heritage
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Sunday, August 15, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Max Scherzer's Great Season
One might look at the odds and feel surprised that a road team is favored so heavily against a squad with a winning record.
But in order to recognize the justifiability of favoring the Dodgers so heavily, one has to consider the season that starting pitcher Max Scherzer is enjoying
Scherzer's current ERA, 2.67, is one of the lowest ERAs that he's produced in any season of his already storied career.
He has kept his strikeout rate about as high as it was last year while he's drastically reduced the rate at which he's walking batters.
Even more impressive is the effectivity of his pitches.
Many pitchers primarily throw a fastball. But many of those pitchers only throw a serviceable fastball, a fastball that is decent enough, and rely instead on other pitches when opposing baserunners reach scoring position.
Scherzer is different in that he can fully rely on his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.
This season, his fastball is currently yielding a .204 BA and, outside of July, its slugging rate has likewise been superb.
His fastball is difficult for batters to track as a result of its above-average movement and very high spin rate.
The consistency with which he throws this pitch along the edges of the strike zone likely explains why specifically this season his fastball enjoys its highest whiff rate out of any season in Scherzer's career.
Scherzer's unique fastball and his plethora of supporting quality pitches make him a top-caliber pitcher this season (and every season).
Scherzer's Great Spot
On top of enjoying a great season, Scherzer is in a good spot right now.
For starters, his form is strong. In a Dodger uniform, he has allowed two earned runs in 10.2 innings. He's allowed a combined total of three runs in his past three starts.
Scherzer also couldn't be fresher today because he only threw 3.1 innings in his last start. He could have lasted longer, of course. But a long rain delay prevented him from returning to the mound and building off of his shutout, six-strikeout effort.
Moreover, he pitches in a venue tonight that is historically favorable to him.
In 13 career starts in New York's Citi Field, Scherzer boasts a 2.08 ERA.
So, despite being at home, the Mets are disadvantaged. The fact that oddsmakers are favoring L.A. less heavily simply for being the road team makes the Dodgers more enticing to back.
Among others, look for Brandon Nimmo to struggle. He is 4-for-24 (.167) with 14 strikeouts in his career against the Dodger star.
Carlos Carrasco
Met starter Carlos Carrasco would love to bounce back from his last start in which he allowed four earned runs in one inning to Washington before being stopped by a rain delay.
Carrasco's pitching arsenal is more balanced than Scherzer's, but with negative consequences for him.
He throws four different pitches with over 17-percent frequency: a fastball, change-up, sinker, and slider.
His fastball and change-up are both yielding a slugging rate of well over .800.
While his other two pitches are stronger, they only make up 56.3-percent of his arsenal combined.
This means that nearly half of his arsenal consists in pitches that look extremely vulnerable.
Carrasco vs. Dodger Batters
Dodger batters match up very well against Carrasco. They rank sixth in slugging .444 against his four favorite pitches from righties combined.
Look out for Trea Turner, for example. He is 2-for-3 (.667) with a double in his career against Carrasco.
The Verdict
Dodger relievers -- including two with ERA's well below 3.00 -- did not throw many pitches yesterday.
So there is plenty of quality pitchers fresh and fresh enough to secure the lead that Los Angeles will gain as a result of Scherzer's continual dominance and the lineup's advantage against Carrasco.
L.A. currently enjoys a 6-1 run, which they will extend by winning tonight's game by multiple runs.
For the above reasons, take the Dodgers on the run-line.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL at -103 at Heritage
