Dodgers vs. Giants Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
These rivals are currently both 86-50. Despite having the same record, L.A. is leading the NL West over the Giants.
This series is tied at one game a piece. So, tonight's winner will lead the division with a better record and will have won the series.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for this match-up.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Walker Buehler Is Filthy Good
Dodger starter Walker Buehler just suffered one of his worst starts of the season: he allowed two earned runs in seven innings against Atlanta.
Yes, that is a "bad" start for Buehler.
A lot of top-level pitchers don't seem special in the sense that their primary pitch is the most ordinary pitch, the four-seam fastball.
But these top-level pitchers do not throw an ordinary four-seam fastball.
I think, also, of fellow pitching stars like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
Their fastball is unique for its exceptional quality.
Buehler throws his fastball 45.2 percent of the time.
Like Cole's and Scherzer's, Buehler's fastball boasts well above average spin and velocity.
His average fastball velocity ranks in the 70th percentile while this pitch's average spin ranks in the 95th percentile.
Because of this pitch's quality, it yields a .195 BA and .351 slugging rate.
Of the pitchers who primarily throw a fastball, the average pitcher throws a serviceable fastball and relies on off-speed or breaking pitches when runners enter scoring position.
Buehler, though, is able to ride his fastball. He'll get away with leaving this pitch in more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Heat maps show, however, that he ably varies this pitch's location.
One place where he likes to leave this pitch is high in the strike zone where, in addition to being so fast that batters struggle to keep up with it, this pitch shows the appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath it.
The rest of Buehler's arsenal is characterized by variety. The three other pitches that he throws with over 10 percent frequency are his cutter, slider, and curveball.
His "weakest" pitch is his cutter, which batters hit .223 and slug .359 against. Meanwhile, they hit well under .180 and slug well below .260 against his slider and curveball.
Buehler's curveball benefits from a high active spin percentage, meaning that the little of the spin that he puts into this pitch is wasted.
Among their other virtues, his cutter and slider benefit from frequent borderline location where batters are less certain whether they should swing or not.
Buehler vs. Giant Batters
I hope that an understanding of why Buehler is so good feeds your inclination to bet on the Dodgers tonight.
Match-up statistics reinforce my praise of Buehler's pitching quality.
Buehler has seen San Francisco four times this year and the Giants have yet to figure him out.
In four starts against them, he has lasted at least six innings every time. At most, the Giants achieved one earned run against him.
San Francisco's home ball park is a kind of home away from home for Buehler.
In his career, Buehler is 6-0 with a 2.17 ERA in six career starts in Oracle Park.
Active Giant batters struggle against Buehler. In 130 total at-bats against him, their career BA is .215 and their slugging rate .300. They have zero home runs and more strikeouts than hits against him.
Buster Posey, for example, is 3-for-15 (.200) against Buehler.
Who Will Pitch For San Francisco?
As of 5 a.m., the odds have not been released for this game because it is uncertain who will pitch for the Giants.
Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto are on the IL -- Wood due to COVID and Cueto due to his elbow.
Kevin Gausman and Logan Webb have pitched too recently.
It seems likely that the Giants go with a bullpen game. In their most recent bullpen game, Jarlin Garcia ate up most of their innings.
Garcia is a good pitcher, but he threw 2.2 innings yesterday and pitched two days ago as well. When he threw 3.2 innings on August 30, he had gotten three days of rest before.
There simply aren't enough options out there for San Francisco.
Sammy Long is the remaining fresh longer-outing option, but he's awful. His ERA is 5.72. Plus, L.A. just saw him: he allowed one earned run in one inning yesterday.
John Brebbia could last multiple innings. But in his last multi-inning effort, he surrendered four runs in two innings to the Dodgers.
For the above reasons, take the Dodgers in some form when the sports betting sites release their odds.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (Odds TBA)
These rivals are currently both 86-50. Despite having the same record, L.A. is leading the NL West over the Giants.
This series is tied at one game a piece. So, tonight's winner will lead the division with a better record and will have won the series.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for this match-up.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, September 5, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Walker Buehler Is Filthy Good
Dodger starter Walker Buehler just suffered one of his worst starts of the season: he allowed two earned runs in seven innings against Atlanta.
Yes, that is a "bad" start for Buehler.
A lot of top-level pitchers don't seem special in the sense that their primary pitch is the most ordinary pitch, the four-seam fastball.
But these top-level pitchers do not throw an ordinary four-seam fastball.
I think, also, of fellow pitching stars like Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer.
Their fastball is unique for its exceptional quality.
Buehler throws his fastball 45.2 percent of the time.
Like Cole's and Scherzer's, Buehler's fastball boasts well above average spin and velocity.
His average fastball velocity ranks in the 70th percentile while this pitch's average spin ranks in the 95th percentile.
Because of this pitch's quality, it yields a .195 BA and .351 slugging rate.
Of the pitchers who primarily throw a fastball, the average pitcher throws a serviceable fastball and relies on off-speed or breaking pitches when runners enter scoring position.
Buehler, though, is able to ride his fastball. He'll get away with leaving this pitch in more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Heat maps show, however, that he ably varies this pitch's location.
One place where he likes to leave this pitch is high in the strike zone where, in addition to being so fast that batters struggle to keep up with it, this pitch shows the appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath it.
The rest of Buehler's arsenal is characterized by variety. The three other pitches that he throws with over 10 percent frequency are his cutter, slider, and curveball.
His "weakest" pitch is his cutter, which batters hit .223 and slug .359 against. Meanwhile, they hit well under .180 and slug well below .260 against his slider and curveball.
Buehler's curveball benefits from a high active spin percentage, meaning that the little of the spin that he puts into this pitch is wasted.
Among their other virtues, his cutter and slider benefit from frequent borderline location where batters are less certain whether they should swing or not.
Buehler vs. Giant Batters
I hope that an understanding of why Buehler is so good feeds your inclination to bet on the Dodgers tonight.
Match-up statistics reinforce my praise of Buehler's pitching quality.
Buehler has seen San Francisco four times this year and the Giants have yet to figure him out.
In four starts against them, he has lasted at least six innings every time. At most, the Giants achieved one earned run against him.
San Francisco's home ball park is a kind of home away from home for Buehler.
In his career, Buehler is 6-0 with a 2.17 ERA in six career starts in Oracle Park.
Active Giant batters struggle against Buehler. In 130 total at-bats against him, their career BA is .215 and their slugging rate .300. They have zero home runs and more strikeouts than hits against him.
Buster Posey, for example, is 3-for-15 (.200) against Buehler.
Who Will Pitch For San Francisco?
As of 5 a.m., the odds have not been released for this game because it is uncertain who will pitch for the Giants.
Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto are on the IL -- Wood due to COVID and Cueto due to his elbow.
Kevin Gausman and Logan Webb have pitched too recently.
It seems likely that the Giants go with a bullpen game. In their most recent bullpen game, Jarlin Garcia ate up most of their innings.
Garcia is a good pitcher, but he threw 2.2 innings yesterday and pitched two days ago as well. When he threw 3.2 innings on August 30, he had gotten three days of rest before.
There simply aren't enough options out there for San Francisco.
Sammy Long is the remaining fresh longer-outing option, but he's awful. His ERA is 5.72. Plus, L.A. just saw him: he allowed one earned run in one inning yesterday.
John Brebbia could last multiple innings. But in his last multi-inning effort, he surrendered four runs in two innings to the Dodgers.
For the above reasons, take the Dodgers in some form when the sports betting sites release their odds.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (Odds TBA)
