Chicago’s North Side Heading South in Los Angeles
The streaking Dodgers continue a three-game series against the Cubs at 10 ET on ESPN. Can the struggling Cubs turn things around in Los Angeles?
Chicago Cubs (42-34) at Los Angeles Dodgers (42-35)
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H RL
Chicago’s Jon Lester (9-2, 2.10 ERA) is pitching much worse than it seems on the surface. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 4.20, down .10 from last season. Over time, a pitcher’s career ERA and FIP tend to align. Because Lester's career ERA is .11 lower than his career FIP, he is due for statistical regression. Lester is allowing more hard contact, more walks, and achieving fewer strikeouts. His ERA is so low because he is surviving with an unsustainably high 87.6% left-on-base percentage. This „luck,“ or statistical improbability, was evident in his June 20 start against the Dodgers, in which he shut them out over seven innings but benefitted from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP was 4.11 and xFIP 6.67. His high xFIP indicates that he, numerically speaking, should have allowed at least a home run based on the rate of hard contact and fly balls that he allowed. In sum, opponents are hitting Lester hard, Los Angeles did too, and LA isn’t likely to be so unlucky again.
Los Angeles matches up well with Lester as a southpaw. Like last season, the Dodgers took time to be able to hit lefties. In June, they are third in slugging against southpaws. Lester’s top pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he trusts with nearly 50% frequency. The Dodgers rank seventh in slugging against this pitch from lefties. Lester is in a tough spot. He’s dominated at home—including against LA—but he’s endured five road games immediately ensuing a home outing and in each of those road games he surrendered at least one home run. Lester’s FIP is 5.06 away from the Chicago faithful, compared to 3.27 at home. Last season, he thrived against Chicago at home but surrendered six runs in 3.1 innings in LA. Lester struggles particularly against righties, so look out for Matt Kemp, who slugs .646 against southpaws.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Ross Stripling (6-2, 1.99 ERA) will hope for more fortune than in his last outing against the Dodgers, in which he suffered an unfortunately high .412 opposing BABIP and took the loss despite a 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stripling has been an amazing surprise for LA’s injury-ridden rotation. Relievers tend to lose quality when they’re forced to last more innings as a starter, but that hasn’t been the case with him. Stripling's command is strong. He has the fourth-best walk-per-nine innings ratio ahead of Houston’s Justin Verlander, among others. His stuff is solid too and he has the fifth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Stripling’s key is to vary his location. He tends to start with a first-pitch fastball, although he can command his other pitches well enough to remain unpredictable with his first pitch. He concentrates his fastballs within the upper regions of the strike zone. He likes to follow his fastball with a curveball that enjoys immense vertical movement and is therefore elusive in its drop especially after the batter had just seen a fastball up high. This curveball procures the highest percentage of whiffs among his pitches and, in 203 curveballs thrown, he’s only allowed two extra-base hits with it.
In Stripling’s worst games, his most frequent pitch, the fastball, has been slammed. But the Cubs are statistically the most overachieving team against this pitch from righties based on the metric SLG-xSLG and so are due for statistical regression. The Cubs will likely have to oppose Stripling without crucial but injured slugger Kris Bryant.
Chicago is suffering an atrocious road stand, having lost five in a row, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those losses. They’re now yielding -3.2 units away. Conversely, LA has won four in a row and promises to stay hot.
The streaking Dodgers continue a three-game series against the Cubs at 10 ET on ESPN. Can the struggling Cubs turn things around in Los Angeles?
Chicago Cubs (42-34) at Los Angeles Dodgers (42-35)
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H RL
Chicago’s Jon Lester (9-2, 2.10 ERA) is pitching much worse than it seems on the surface. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 4.20, down .10 from last season. Over time, a pitcher’s career ERA and FIP tend to align. Because Lester's career ERA is .11 lower than his career FIP, he is due for statistical regression. Lester is allowing more hard contact, more walks, and achieving fewer strikeouts. His ERA is so low because he is surviving with an unsustainably high 87.6% left-on-base percentage. This „luck,“ or statistical improbability, was evident in his June 20 start against the Dodgers, in which he shut them out over seven innings but benefitted from a fortunately low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His FIP was 4.11 and xFIP 6.67. His high xFIP indicates that he, numerically speaking, should have allowed at least a home run based on the rate of hard contact and fly balls that he allowed. In sum, opponents are hitting Lester hard, Los Angeles did too, and LA isn’t likely to be so unlucky again.
Los Angeles matches up well with Lester as a southpaw. Like last season, the Dodgers took time to be able to hit lefties. In June, they are third in slugging against southpaws. Lester’s top pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he trusts with nearly 50% frequency. The Dodgers rank seventh in slugging against this pitch from lefties. Lester is in a tough spot. He’s dominated at home—including against LA—but he’s endured five road games immediately ensuing a home outing and in each of those road games he surrendered at least one home run. Lester’s FIP is 5.06 away from the Chicago faithful, compared to 3.27 at home. Last season, he thrived against Chicago at home but surrendered six runs in 3.1 innings in LA. Lester struggles particularly against righties, so look out for Matt Kemp, who slugs .646 against southpaws.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Ross Stripling (6-2, 1.99 ERA) will hope for more fortune than in his last outing against the Dodgers, in which he suffered an unfortunately high .412 opposing BABIP and took the loss despite a 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Stripling has been an amazing surprise for LA’s injury-ridden rotation. Relievers tend to lose quality when they’re forced to last more innings as a starter, but that hasn’t been the case with him. Stripling's command is strong. He has the fourth-best walk-per-nine innings ratio ahead of Houston’s Justin Verlander, among others. His stuff is solid too and he has the fifth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Stripling’s key is to vary his location. He tends to start with a first-pitch fastball, although he can command his other pitches well enough to remain unpredictable with his first pitch. He concentrates his fastballs within the upper regions of the strike zone. He likes to follow his fastball with a curveball that enjoys immense vertical movement and is therefore elusive in its drop especially after the batter had just seen a fastball up high. This curveball procures the highest percentage of whiffs among his pitches and, in 203 curveballs thrown, he’s only allowed two extra-base hits with it.
In Stripling’s worst games, his most frequent pitch, the fastball, has been slammed. But the Cubs are statistically the most overachieving team against this pitch from righties based on the metric SLG-xSLG and so are due for statistical regression. The Cubs will likely have to oppose Stripling without crucial but injured slugger Kris Bryant.
Chicago is suffering an atrocious road stand, having lost five in a row, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those losses. They’re now yielding -3.2 units away. Conversely, LA has won four in a row and promises to stay hot.
