Braves Starter Won’t Enjoy Seeing Former Dodgers Teammates
The Dodgers begin a three-game series at home against Atlanta. Former LA starter Brandon McCarthy is a great follow on Twitter, but a bad guy to trust tonight with your money.
Atlanta Braves (36-26) at Los Angeles Dodgers (31-31)
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H RL
LA’s Walker Buehler (3-1, 2.74 ERA) has established himself as a reliable starter, particularly at home, where his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 1.84 and opposing BA .169.
The 23-year old has grown in his second season. He’s developed new pitches— a high-velocity two-seamer with strong arm-side movement that he can command well to make it elude or back-door opposing batters and a change-up mostly for left-handed hitters. His four-seamer is deadly at 97 mph with its unique arm-side movement. It is versatile—he likes to elevate it and induce whiffs with its velocity and rising action while its spin rate, which ranks in the top 16% in terms of rotations per movement, makes it conducive as a ground ball-inducing pitch. Opponents are batting .196 against it. His curveball shows strong velocity, which is conducive to achieving whiffs, and over nine inches of vertical movement, which is good for getting grounders. He more evenly places it along the bottom row of the strike zone and away from more dangerous parts of the plate. Because it’s more unpredictable with its location, he has yet to allow an extra-base hit with it and induces more grounders and less line drives with it. This season, he rarely throws it in the zone but, because it’s deceptive, generates a high swing rate.
Moreover, he lowered his slider’s release point and its velocity so that it moves more horizontally. So it’s a more deceptive and elusive pitch that keeps hitters off-balance with its velocity differential relative to his other pitches. Opponents have only mustered five singles against his slider, which has whiffed almost twice as many batters. Its downward bite is also good for inducing grounders. Likewise against his fastball, which is way more effective since opponents can no longer sit on it, opponents’ slugging percentage is down over .300 from last season against his slider.
In the past month, the Braves rank 22nd in slugging against Buehler’s two most frequent pitches—the four-seamer and two-seamer—at high velo (94-99 mph) thrown by righties. In the past two weeks, they rank 25th in the category.
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Atlanta’s Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 4.83 ERA) faces his former team from 2015-2017. Lineups tend to exploit their familiarity with their starting pitchers. Current Brewer Jhoulys Chacin, for example, earned a 1.79 ERA at home as a Padre last season. When in April he faced his typically offensively challenged friends in San Diego, he yielded four runs in 3.1 innings. Likewise, former A Sonny Gray got slammed by Oakland after consecutive strong starts.
McCarthy is refashioning himself as a ground ball pitcher. His opposing ground-ball percentage is up 9% from last season. He’s done this particularly by reducing his fastball usage. He relies primarily on a sinker, cutter and curve combo at low velocity. He rarely elevates his pitches, but relies on vertical movement especially of his sinker to induce grounders. He eliminated his change-up, which, like his fastball in 2017, he hadn’t relied on much anyways. In terms of pitch usage, velocity, preferred location, etc., he’s still much the same pitcher from last season.
His cutter carries decisive betting significance. In his worst games, in which he yielded worse than a 6.50 FIP against the Giants, Marlins and Reds, his cutter got slammed. These teams rank fifth, sixth, and twelfth respectively against the cutter from a righty. The Dodgers rank 10th overall and second in the past two weeks in the category. Look out for Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson. Kemp is slugging 1.000 in the past seven days, Pederson .938.
The Dodgers have won five of their last six, scoring 55 runs in the process. They’ll continue their awesome form, supported by decisive match-up advantages.
The Dodgers begin a three-game series at home against Atlanta. Former LA starter Brandon McCarthy is a great follow on Twitter, but a bad guy to trust tonight with your money.
Atlanta Braves (36-26) at Los Angeles Dodgers (31-31)
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H RL
LA’s Walker Buehler (3-1, 2.74 ERA) has established himself as a reliable starter, particularly at home, where his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 1.84 and opposing BA .169.
The 23-year old has grown in his second season. He’s developed new pitches— a high-velocity two-seamer with strong arm-side movement that he can command well to make it elude or back-door opposing batters and a change-up mostly for left-handed hitters. His four-seamer is deadly at 97 mph with its unique arm-side movement. It is versatile—he likes to elevate it and induce whiffs with its velocity and rising action while its spin rate, which ranks in the top 16% in terms of rotations per movement, makes it conducive as a ground ball-inducing pitch. Opponents are batting .196 against it. His curveball shows strong velocity, which is conducive to achieving whiffs, and over nine inches of vertical movement, which is good for getting grounders. He more evenly places it along the bottom row of the strike zone and away from more dangerous parts of the plate. Because it’s more unpredictable with its location, he has yet to allow an extra-base hit with it and induces more grounders and less line drives with it. This season, he rarely throws it in the zone but, because it’s deceptive, generates a high swing rate.
Moreover, he lowered his slider’s release point and its velocity so that it moves more horizontally. So it’s a more deceptive and elusive pitch that keeps hitters off-balance with its velocity differential relative to his other pitches. Opponents have only mustered five singles against his slider, which has whiffed almost twice as many batters. Its downward bite is also good for inducing grounders. Likewise against his fastball, which is way more effective since opponents can no longer sit on it, opponents’ slugging percentage is down over .300 from last season against his slider.
In the past month, the Braves rank 22nd in slugging against Buehler’s two most frequent pitches—the four-seamer and two-seamer—at high velo (94-99 mph) thrown by righties. In the past two weeks, they rank 25th in the category.
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Atlanta’s Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 4.83 ERA) faces his former team from 2015-2017. Lineups tend to exploit their familiarity with their starting pitchers. Current Brewer Jhoulys Chacin, for example, earned a 1.79 ERA at home as a Padre last season. When in April he faced his typically offensively challenged friends in San Diego, he yielded four runs in 3.1 innings. Likewise, former A Sonny Gray got slammed by Oakland after consecutive strong starts.
McCarthy is refashioning himself as a ground ball pitcher. His opposing ground-ball percentage is up 9% from last season. He’s done this particularly by reducing his fastball usage. He relies primarily on a sinker, cutter and curve combo at low velocity. He rarely elevates his pitches, but relies on vertical movement especially of his sinker to induce grounders. He eliminated his change-up, which, like his fastball in 2017, he hadn’t relied on much anyways. In terms of pitch usage, velocity, preferred location, etc., he’s still much the same pitcher from last season.
His cutter carries decisive betting significance. In his worst games, in which he yielded worse than a 6.50 FIP against the Giants, Marlins and Reds, his cutter got slammed. These teams rank fifth, sixth, and twelfth respectively against the cutter from a righty. The Dodgers rank 10th overall and second in the past two weeks in the category. Look out for Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson. Kemp is slugging 1.000 in the past seven days, Pederson .938.
The Dodgers have won five of their last six, scoring 55 runs in the process. They’ll continue their awesome form, supported by decisive match-up advantages.
