Dodgers vs. Braves NLCS Game 4: MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Atlanta’s Limited Options
In Game 3, Atlanta’s starter conceded seven runs in less than an inning.
That pitching debacle reflects the limitation of viable options in the Braves' starting rotation.
I hope to show that Bryse Wilson will create continuity in the sense that he will further manifest Atlanta’s inability to find reliable starting pitcher options.
Atlanta’s manager has stated that the goal is for Wilson to last (at least) five innings). So a first-half wager must be informed by our opinion of Wilson.
Bryse Wilson
Initially, Wilson was excluded from the team’s roster. He was not among the 28 members of the roster that participated in the Wild Card Series with Cincinnati.
It’s easy to see why he was left off: in six professional outings in 2020, he yielded a 4.02 ERA. He was vulnerable to the home run ball and walked 5.17 batters per nine innings.
Wilson is quite young and his command remains distant from professional niveau.
While his ERA this year is better than it was last year, he also benefitted from pitching the majority of his recent innings against a Marlin lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game.
In contrast, the Dodgers rank number one in accruing 5.91 runs per game.
So while he already has to deal with making his playoff debut, Wilson must contend with a top-caliber lineup.
Wilson’s Poor Command
Wilson is not walking so many batters because he’s struggling to throw strikes. His desirable first-pitch strike percentage provides proof of this statement.
Rather, Wilson needs to avoid the plate because the quality of especially his favorite pitches is drastically worrisome.
For example, Wilson throws a fastball with close to 50-percent frequency.
Even though this is his favorite pitch, opponents are hitting .321 and slugging .607 against it.
He doesn’t mask this pitch’s delivery well — it has vertical and horizontal release points that distinguish it from other pitches without making it look unusual for batters.
His fastball shows lackluster movement and unimpressive spin.
This lack of spin hurts Wilson because he prefers to elevate his fastballs — pitching charts illustrate this preference.
More spin would be nice for an elevated fastball because it could give it the appearance of having rising action.
But when Wilson doesn’t add much spin to his fastball — and when its velocity isn’t anything special — then opponents don’t mistakenly swing underneath this pitch.
Wilson wants to induce fly balls by forcing batters to swing underneath his pitches.
Instead, he is more likely to be on the receiving end of extra-base hits or home runs — especially when he throws his favorite pitch.
A pitcher who can’t rely even on his favorite pitch instantly becomes unreliable.
Wilson vs. Dodger Batters
I strongly dislike Wilson not only because his fastball performs poorly no matter who the opponent is because this pitch itself is lower-quality, but also because the Dodgers match up with him well.
They are extremely solid against his favorite pitch, the fastball, from righties. In fact they rank number one in slugging against this pitch.
So even if Wilson did throw a good fastball, he would be difficult to like against these L.A. batters.
Moreover, L.A. is most dangerous against fly ball pitchers — and Wilson certainly is one based on his low ground ball percentage — than against any other kind of pitcher.
Against the former, L.A. is slugging .509.
So it’s true that Wilson has hardly faced Dodger batters, but he very much possesses the characteristics with which they are familiar and confident.
In terms of specific L.A. batters, look out for Corey Seager, who leads his team in the postseason in both BA and home runs. He currently owns a .367 BA and has produced three home runs.
Over or Kershaw?
Do we hit the „over“ or do we accept the big chalk being posted by oddsmakers and back the Dodgers with Kershaw?
Even if you were to take the first-half run-line (as opposed to money-line), the Dodgers are much too chalky for my liking.
The thing is, though, that I prefer to make a first-half play because I want to focus on L.A.’s advantage against Wilson.
In addition to recommending the first-half „over,“ I want to remind you that you can also put the Dodgers first-half run-line in a parlay of your choosing so that you can bet on the Dodgers without being bothered by the chalk.
Kershaw vs. Atlanta Batters
I don’t suspect that Atlanta will have to score much at all in order to bring these first five innings over the posted total.
But it’s really nice to know that five different Brave batters hit over .290 against Kershaw.
Not among these five is Freddie Freeman, the always dangerous star, who hits .273 with a homer against Kershaw.
Kershaw is well-known for being at his worst in the playoffs where his career ERA is 4.23. These career struggles in the playoffs include starts where he’s as well-rested as he is today.
The Verdict
L.A.’s elite lineup faces a uniquely soft test because the Braves lack alternatives.
So expect another strong output from Dodger batters. In turn, we can feel confident that Atlanta’s lineup will contribute runs of its own given its history with Kershaw and given Kershaw’s playoff struggles.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 (-110) with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, October 15, 2020 at 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
Atlanta’s Limited Options
In Game 3, Atlanta’s starter conceded seven runs in less than an inning.
That pitching debacle reflects the limitation of viable options in the Braves' starting rotation.
I hope to show that Bryse Wilson will create continuity in the sense that he will further manifest Atlanta’s inability to find reliable starting pitcher options.
Atlanta’s manager has stated that the goal is for Wilson to last (at least) five innings). So a first-half wager must be informed by our opinion of Wilson.
Bryse Wilson
Initially, Wilson was excluded from the team’s roster. He was not among the 28 members of the roster that participated in the Wild Card Series with Cincinnati.
It’s easy to see why he was left off: in six professional outings in 2020, he yielded a 4.02 ERA. He was vulnerable to the home run ball and walked 5.17 batters per nine innings.
Wilson is quite young and his command remains distant from professional niveau.
While his ERA this year is better than it was last year, he also benefitted from pitching the majority of his recent innings against a Marlin lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game.
In contrast, the Dodgers rank number one in accruing 5.91 runs per game.
So while he already has to deal with making his playoff debut, Wilson must contend with a top-caliber lineup.
Wilson’s Poor Command
Wilson is not walking so many batters because he’s struggling to throw strikes. His desirable first-pitch strike percentage provides proof of this statement.
Rather, Wilson needs to avoid the plate because the quality of especially his favorite pitches is drastically worrisome.
For example, Wilson throws a fastball with close to 50-percent frequency.
Even though this is his favorite pitch, opponents are hitting .321 and slugging .607 against it.
He doesn’t mask this pitch’s delivery well — it has vertical and horizontal release points that distinguish it from other pitches without making it look unusual for batters.
His fastball shows lackluster movement and unimpressive spin.
This lack of spin hurts Wilson because he prefers to elevate his fastballs — pitching charts illustrate this preference.
More spin would be nice for an elevated fastball because it could give it the appearance of having rising action.
But when Wilson doesn’t add much spin to his fastball — and when its velocity isn’t anything special — then opponents don’t mistakenly swing underneath this pitch.
Wilson wants to induce fly balls by forcing batters to swing underneath his pitches.
Instead, he is more likely to be on the receiving end of extra-base hits or home runs — especially when he throws his favorite pitch.
A pitcher who can’t rely even on his favorite pitch instantly becomes unreliable.
Wilson vs. Dodger Batters
I strongly dislike Wilson not only because his fastball performs poorly no matter who the opponent is because this pitch itself is lower-quality, but also because the Dodgers match up with him well.
They are extremely solid against his favorite pitch, the fastball, from righties. In fact they rank number one in slugging against this pitch.
So even if Wilson did throw a good fastball, he would be difficult to like against these L.A. batters.
Moreover, L.A. is most dangerous against fly ball pitchers — and Wilson certainly is one based on his low ground ball percentage — than against any other kind of pitcher.
Against the former, L.A. is slugging .509.
So it’s true that Wilson has hardly faced Dodger batters, but he very much possesses the characteristics with which they are familiar and confident.
In terms of specific L.A. batters, look out for Corey Seager, who leads his team in the postseason in both BA and home runs. He currently owns a .367 BA and has produced three home runs.
Over or Kershaw?
Do we hit the „over“ or do we accept the big chalk being posted by oddsmakers and back the Dodgers with Kershaw?
Even if you were to take the first-half run-line (as opposed to money-line), the Dodgers are much too chalky for my liking.
The thing is, though, that I prefer to make a first-half play because I want to focus on L.A.’s advantage against Wilson.
In addition to recommending the first-half „over,“ I want to remind you that you can also put the Dodgers first-half run-line in a parlay of your choosing so that you can bet on the Dodgers without being bothered by the chalk.
Kershaw vs. Atlanta Batters
I don’t suspect that Atlanta will have to score much at all in order to bring these first five innings over the posted total.
But it’s really nice to know that five different Brave batters hit over .290 against Kershaw.
Not among these five is Freddie Freeman, the always dangerous star, who hits .273 with a homer against Kershaw.
Kershaw is well-known for being at his worst in the playoffs where his career ERA is 4.23. These career struggles in the playoffs include starts where he’s as well-rested as he is today.
The Verdict
L.A.’s elite lineup faces a uniquely soft test because the Braves lack alternatives.
So expect another strong output from Dodger batters. In turn, we can feel confident that Atlanta’s lineup will contribute runs of its own given its history with Kershaw and given Kershaw’s playoff struggles.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 (-110) with Bovada
