Astro Bats Will Shoot for the Stars Saturday in Los Angeles
Former World Series foes Houston and Los Angeles clash in L.A. Saturday at 9:10 ET. Does it create Deja Vu to say that Houston will win?
Astros at Dodgers
MLB Pick: Astros
LA’s Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.48 ERA) shows poor form, surrendering four runs and at least one homer in each of his last two starts.
Maeda has made major adjustments throughout the season. He started out relying on a fastball-cutter combo. Since May, he reduced his fastball usage, almost eliminated the cutter from his arsenal, and increased his change-up usage. His change-up has improved significantly. Opponents slugged .471 against it in April, but that number has dropped every month and they are slugging under .100 against it in the past two months. Maeda locates it better on the peripheries and utilizes it especially against left-handed batters. But Houston will challenge him because it ranks seventh in slugging against the change-up in the past month and its lefties rank sixth in slugging against it.
The biggest reason for Maeda’s improvement this season is that he’s achieving more strikeouts and inducing batters to chase his stuff more often. His change-up, with its precise location and movement between the borders of the zone, is a fundamental part of his improved chase percentage. The importance of good plate discipline against Maeda is evident in the fact that two of his worst games came against Oakland and Cincinnati. Both lineups rank in the top four in plate discipline, as measured by lowest percentage of chasing pitches outside the zone. Houston ranks fifth in the category.
Besides his change-up, Maeda is hittable by any opponent. In July, opponents slugged over .500 against both his fastball and his slider. Both pitches make up 70 percent of his arsenal. His fastball location is getting progressively worse. Since July, three of its five most frequent locations have been in the three most middle spots in the zone. His slider is suffering from lower horizontal and higher vertical movement, which is making it easier for batters to track.
Houston ranks fourth in slugging against Maeda’s top three pitches, the fastball, slider, and change-up. This ranking doesn’t account for Altuve’s injury. But Houston has finally learned to step it up without their star batter and Altuve’s absence is making them better. They’ve scored 13 runs in their last two games. Houston is best on the road, where it yields +13.8 units.
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Houston’s Lance McCullers (10-6, 4.06 ERA) seems to be in poor form, but was actually very unlucky in his last outing. He struck out 11 batters and walked none, but suffered from a fortunately high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing a rate of hard contact below his season average. His FIP (like ERA, but factors luck) was so good that it was below zero.
McCullers relies on a curveball-sinker combo. Both pitches make up 80% of his arsenal. His sinker, which he can utilize in all scenarios, possesses strong arm-side movement and generates many ground balls. His curveball is his most famous pitch. He relies on it in every scenario, especially when he’s ahead of the count and with two strikes. It averages 86 mph and still possesses strong movement. It takes getting used to. Its shock factor explains why McCullers performs much better against an opponent in the first meeting and then struggles in a prompt rematch. For example, Oakland’s lineup ranks nearly as strongly as the Dodgers do in chase percentage. In its first match-up with McCullers, it struck out seven times in seven innings and couldn’t touch him, but improved in every outing thereafter against him.
The Dodgers rank 17th in slugging against McCullers’ favorite two pitches. While this stat barely accounts for superstar Manny Machado, Machado is strongly overachieving against them based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a player’s slugging rate with what it should be based on quality of contact. Machado is 0-for-9 in his career against McCullers.
LA’s bullpen ranks 12th in terms of FIP, but Houston’s ranks first and will secure victory.
Former World Series foes Houston and Los Angeles clash in L.A. Saturday at 9:10 ET. Does it create Deja Vu to say that Houston will win?
Astros at Dodgers
MLB Pick: Astros
LA’s Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.48 ERA) shows poor form, surrendering four runs and at least one homer in each of his last two starts.
Maeda has made major adjustments throughout the season. He started out relying on a fastball-cutter combo. Since May, he reduced his fastball usage, almost eliminated the cutter from his arsenal, and increased his change-up usage. His change-up has improved significantly. Opponents slugged .471 against it in April, but that number has dropped every month and they are slugging under .100 against it in the past two months. Maeda locates it better on the peripheries and utilizes it especially against left-handed batters. But Houston will challenge him because it ranks seventh in slugging against the change-up in the past month and its lefties rank sixth in slugging against it.
The biggest reason for Maeda’s improvement this season is that he’s achieving more strikeouts and inducing batters to chase his stuff more often. His change-up, with its precise location and movement between the borders of the zone, is a fundamental part of his improved chase percentage. The importance of good plate discipline against Maeda is evident in the fact that two of his worst games came against Oakland and Cincinnati. Both lineups rank in the top four in plate discipline, as measured by lowest percentage of chasing pitches outside the zone. Houston ranks fifth in the category.
Besides his change-up, Maeda is hittable by any opponent. In July, opponents slugged over .500 against both his fastball and his slider. Both pitches make up 70 percent of his arsenal. His fastball location is getting progressively worse. Since July, three of its five most frequent locations have been in the three most middle spots in the zone. His slider is suffering from lower horizontal and higher vertical movement, which is making it easier for batters to track.
Houston ranks fourth in slugging against Maeda’s top three pitches, the fastball, slider, and change-up. This ranking doesn’t account for Altuve’s injury. But Houston has finally learned to step it up without their star batter and Altuve’s absence is making them better. They’ve scored 13 runs in their last two games. Houston is best on the road, where it yields +13.8 units.
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Houston’s Lance McCullers (10-6, 4.06 ERA) seems to be in poor form, but was actually very unlucky in his last outing. He struck out 11 batters and walked none, but suffered from a fortunately high opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite allowing a rate of hard contact below his season average. His FIP (like ERA, but factors luck) was so good that it was below zero.
McCullers relies on a curveball-sinker combo. Both pitches make up 80% of his arsenal. His sinker, which he can utilize in all scenarios, possesses strong arm-side movement and generates many ground balls. His curveball is his most famous pitch. He relies on it in every scenario, especially when he’s ahead of the count and with two strikes. It averages 86 mph and still possesses strong movement. It takes getting used to. Its shock factor explains why McCullers performs much better against an opponent in the first meeting and then struggles in a prompt rematch. For example, Oakland’s lineup ranks nearly as strongly as the Dodgers do in chase percentage. In its first match-up with McCullers, it struck out seven times in seven innings and couldn’t touch him, but improved in every outing thereafter against him.
The Dodgers rank 17th in slugging against McCullers’ favorite two pitches. While this stat barely accounts for superstar Manny Machado, Machado is strongly overachieving against them based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a player’s slugging rate with what it should be based on quality of contact. Machado is 0-for-9 in his career against McCullers.
LA’s bullpen ranks 12th in terms of FIP, but Houston’s ranks first and will secure victory.
GL
