Dodgers vs. Angels: MLB Baseball Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels
Friday, August 14, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Worried About Kershaw?
In recent years, rumors have floated around that the best days of future Hall-of-famer Clayton Kershaw (1-1, 3.60 ERA) are behind him.
These rumors seem to find merit in his most recent start in which Kershaw yielded four runs in 4.1 innings against the Giants. Doesn’t Kershaw’s last game show that we should look to bet against him?
A deeper statistical dive, however, suggests that Kershaw is actually performing very well and that we should expect and predict his strong performance to continue.
Consider the metric FIP, which measures a pitcher’s performance independently of fielding because a pitcher is not responsible for fielding. He is responsible for strikeouts, walks, etc.
The underlying premise of xFIP is that a pitcher is not responsible for the ratio between the number of home runs and the number of fly balls that he allows.
This ratio tends to stabilize around a specific figure, the league average, over time.
In other words, there exists a certain variance in this ratio that is outside of the pitcher’s control. So xFIP tries to adjust for this pitcher-independent element.
When Kershaw allowed three home runs against the Giants, he was merely suffering from statistically unfortunate variance.
His 2.74 xFIP in that contest — as well as his 1.91 xFIP on the season — are both excellent figures.
One may want to counter: well, it seems like Giant batters made hard contact with a very high percentage of his pitches. Doesn’t that explain why he allowed so many home runs?
Hard contact, by itself, is extremely far from suggesting a home run. Many other factors come into play.
In today’s game, with so much shifting happening, hard contact even enjoys lower correlation with a hit.
So, we still have to realize that variance played a key role in Kershaw’s last performance.
The key point is this: we use metrics like xFIP primarily for their predictive benefits and not for their explanatory ones.
I will grant that Kershaw’s poor results in his last start were not „just variance.“
He threw an extremely high percentage of first-pitch strikes and 68% of these were a fastball to righties.
Giant batters took advantage of Kershaw’s predictability, slugging 1.667 against Kershaw with the count 0-0.
Kershaw’s tactics were inferior. But his performance was superior. Kershaw is an extremely smart veteran. His tactics are an obvious, easy fix for him. His performance will continue to be strong.
This distinction between tactics and performance makes sense of why his strikeout-to-walk rate — which is better than 10-to-1 — is incredible and why he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than ever before.
Overall, Kershaw's xFIP helps us predict that his home run allowed rate will plummet.
Kershaw vs Angels Batters
While xFIP doesn’t specifically predict a pitcher’s subsequent performance, I think Kershaw’s performance tonight will be strong because he matches up excellently with Angel batters.
They rank 26th in batting .205 against left-handed pitchers.
Angel batters also rank in the bottom third in slugging against Kershaw’s two favorite pitches — the fastball and slider — from lefties.
In 116 career at-bats against Kershaw, Angel batters have accumulated zero home runs and slug only .319.
Their collective BA against Kershaw is .233.
This last figure is as „high“ as it is because Albert Pujols has hit Kershaw well historically.
But remember that Kershaw and Pujols are both very old. Pujols is currently batting .182. He is not what he once was.
Superstar Mike Trout will have a down performance tonight. He’s 2-for-13 (.154) lifetime against Kershaw.
Patrick Sandoval
Patrick Sandoval, as suggested by his 0-1, 2.70 ERA, his almost 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 3.39 xFIP, is having a great season.
He is 23 and maturing as a pitcher.
Sandoval throws his slider with much greater frequency this year and is rewarded with a .100 opposing BA.
This pitch will be key tonight because he emphasizes it against left-handed batters.
So expect Corey Seager to struggle as well as fellow lefty star, the anyhow slumping Cody Bellinger.
Overall, L.A. ranks 27th in batting .193 against left-handed pitchers. A slow start against southpaws has not been unusual for this lineup in recent years.
Dodger hitters also rank in the bottom third in slugging against Sandoval’s favorite pitches — the fastball, slider, and change-up -- from lefties.
The Verdict
Don’t be put off by Kershaw’s ERA. We find somewhat of an explanation for his last performance. But we find zero reason to predict bad results.
Given match-up reasons — in particular, both lineups are struggling against lefties as well as against the specific types of pitches that both Kershaw and Sandoval emphasize — we should expect a low-scoring game.
I want to focus on both starting pitchers. So, I will take the first-half under. You can bet now on Bovada or wait for lower-juice top sportsbooks, like 5Dimes, to release their odds.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5 (-120) with Bovada
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels
Friday, August 14, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Worried About Kershaw?
In recent years, rumors have floated around that the best days of future Hall-of-famer Clayton Kershaw (1-1, 3.60 ERA) are behind him.
These rumors seem to find merit in his most recent start in which Kershaw yielded four runs in 4.1 innings against the Giants. Doesn’t Kershaw’s last game show that we should look to bet against him?
A deeper statistical dive, however, suggests that Kershaw is actually performing very well and that we should expect and predict his strong performance to continue.
Consider the metric FIP, which measures a pitcher’s performance independently of fielding because a pitcher is not responsible for fielding. He is responsible for strikeouts, walks, etc.
The underlying premise of xFIP is that a pitcher is not responsible for the ratio between the number of home runs and the number of fly balls that he allows.
This ratio tends to stabilize around a specific figure, the league average, over time.
In other words, there exists a certain variance in this ratio that is outside of the pitcher’s control. So xFIP tries to adjust for this pitcher-independent element.
When Kershaw allowed three home runs against the Giants, he was merely suffering from statistically unfortunate variance.
His 2.74 xFIP in that contest — as well as his 1.91 xFIP on the season — are both excellent figures.
One may want to counter: well, it seems like Giant batters made hard contact with a very high percentage of his pitches. Doesn’t that explain why he allowed so many home runs?
Hard contact, by itself, is extremely far from suggesting a home run. Many other factors come into play.
In today’s game, with so much shifting happening, hard contact even enjoys lower correlation with a hit.
So, we still have to realize that variance played a key role in Kershaw’s last performance.
The key point is this: we use metrics like xFIP primarily for their predictive benefits and not for their explanatory ones.
I will grant that Kershaw’s poor results in his last start were not „just variance.“
He threw an extremely high percentage of first-pitch strikes and 68% of these were a fastball to righties.
Giant batters took advantage of Kershaw’s predictability, slugging 1.667 against Kershaw with the count 0-0.
Kershaw’s tactics were inferior. But his performance was superior. Kershaw is an extremely smart veteran. His tactics are an obvious, easy fix for him. His performance will continue to be strong.
This distinction between tactics and performance makes sense of why his strikeout-to-walk rate — which is better than 10-to-1 — is incredible and why he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than ever before.
Overall, Kershaw's xFIP helps us predict that his home run allowed rate will plummet.
Kershaw vs Angels Batters
While xFIP doesn’t specifically predict a pitcher’s subsequent performance, I think Kershaw’s performance tonight will be strong because he matches up excellently with Angel batters.
They rank 26th in batting .205 against left-handed pitchers.
Angel batters also rank in the bottom third in slugging against Kershaw’s two favorite pitches — the fastball and slider — from lefties.
In 116 career at-bats against Kershaw, Angel batters have accumulated zero home runs and slug only .319.
Their collective BA against Kershaw is .233.
This last figure is as „high“ as it is because Albert Pujols has hit Kershaw well historically.
But remember that Kershaw and Pujols are both very old. Pujols is currently batting .182. He is not what he once was.
Superstar Mike Trout will have a down performance tonight. He’s 2-for-13 (.154) lifetime against Kershaw.
Patrick Sandoval
Patrick Sandoval, as suggested by his 0-1, 2.70 ERA, his almost 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 3.39 xFIP, is having a great season.
He is 23 and maturing as a pitcher.
Sandoval throws his slider with much greater frequency this year and is rewarded with a .100 opposing BA.
This pitch will be key tonight because he emphasizes it against left-handed batters.
So expect Corey Seager to struggle as well as fellow lefty star, the anyhow slumping Cody Bellinger.
Overall, L.A. ranks 27th in batting .193 against left-handed pitchers. A slow start against southpaws has not been unusual for this lineup in recent years.
Dodger hitters also rank in the bottom third in slugging against Sandoval’s favorite pitches — the fastball, slider, and change-up -- from lefties.
The Verdict
Don’t be put off by Kershaw’s ERA. We find somewhat of an explanation for his last performance. But we find zero reason to predict bad results.
Given match-up reasons — in particular, both lineups are struggling against lefties as well as against the specific types of pitches that both Kershaw and Sandoval emphasize — we should expect a low-scoring game.
I want to focus on both starting pitchers. So, I will take the first-half under. You can bet now on Bovada or wait for lower-juice top sportsbooks, like 5Dimes, to release their odds.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 5 (-120) with Bovada
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