Don't Bet on Dodgers to Win NLCS Against Milwaukee
The Dodgers won the NLDS in four games and are now four wins away from making it to their second straight World Series. Game 1 of the NLCS in Milwaukee is on Thursday (time TBD). Let’s preview this series from LA’s perspective.
How They Got Here
The Dodgers began 2018 with a hangover after losing Game Seven of the World Series against Houston. It took them until June to get above .500. Most importantly, they got hot at the right time. They’ve now won seven of their last eight. Every win against Atlanta in the NLDS came by at least three runs. What helped them get hot was the boosts that the acquired for their lineup. Justin Turner became healthy. He led the team with a .312 BA and is batting .357 in the playoffs. Superstar Manny Machado was the biggest acquisition. He slugs .487. Brian Dozier also came from Minnesota to add depth on the bench.
LA’s biggest strength is its pitching. The starters posted the second-highest regular-season ERA, 3.40. Walker Buehler hadn’t made a start before this season. He achieved a 2.62 regular season ERA. He’s one of three starters who achieved an ERA under 3.00—Hyun-JIn Ryu and Clayton Kershaw were the others. Buehler endured his first playoff start and is responsible for LA’s only postseason loss. The 24-year old will grow from that experience, which came on the road. Ryu and Kershaw combined for 15 shutout innings in the NLDS. The bullpen was also solid, spearheaded by closer Kenley Jansen, who answered doubts about his form with a pair of shutout innings against Atlanta. The Dodgers’ pen boasted the eighth-best regular season ERA and only allowed a run against the Braves. So, even with a couple important hitters like Machado slumping, the Dodgers could still defeat Atlanta with ease on the strength of its pitching.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Moving on to the NLCS! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LADetermined?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LADetermined</a> <a href="https://t.co/IPtCbdKFzE">pic.twitter.com/IPtCbdKFzE</a></p>— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) <a href=" ">9. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Odds
Entering the season, the Dodgers were favored at +300 to win the NL and were +500 to win the World Series, behind Houston. Currently, the price for the Dodgers to win the NL is -110 and +350 to win the World Series. The price is the same for LA’s next opponent, Milwaukee, and Houston is favored to repeat as World Series champion. The Dodgers have the prestige and higher expectations built by a history in which they’ve won six World Series and almost won a seventh last year. The Brewers, conversely, have never won a World Series. Unlike LA, nobody expected small-market Milwaukee to make it this far. Nevertheless, the pricing seems fair because the Brewers are also extremely hot. Like L.A., they trailed in the division standings entering September and won the division in a bonus game between the Regular Season and playoffs. With strong hitting and pitching they swept Colorado. Although the Brewers do have some key guys with postseason experience, there is zero pressure on their shoulders.
Head-to-Head
Both teams faced off seven times in the regular season. Every game came in the second half. The Dodgers won the series 4-3. Four of the games were decided by two runs or fewer. Then there was that time when Milwaukee allowed a franchise-high 21 runs. The Dodgers won two of four at home and two of three on the road. Although Milwaukee has home advantage in this series, LA has already won a series in Milwaukee. Granted, LA won that series when Milwaukee was in a major slump.
In terms of players to watch out for, the Dodgers have some hitters who didn’t contribute to LA’s effort against Atlanta but are still worth watching out for. Matt Kemp has been lackluster, but he slugged .583 against the Brewers in the regular season. Yasmani Grandal is also cold in the playoffs, but he hit over .400 and slugged over .800 against the Brewers. Joc Pedersen slugged .667 against them.
In terms of pitchers, there’s more than just the trio of Buehler, Ryu, and Kershaw. Reliever Caleb Ferguson pitched four shutout innings, yielding only one hit, against Milwaukee. He has thrown 1.2 shutout innings in the postseason. Also, Pedro Baez has two shutout innings and he allowed one run in three innings against Milwaukee.
Betting Verdict
The Dodgers are not worth laying the small chalk (-110) to win the series. They’ve been steamrolling through the playoffs even though they’ve been underachieving in several regards. In terms of hitting, Max Muncy, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal are batting under .200. In terms of pitching, Buehler struggled in his first outing. The thing is that I think they will continue to underachieve. The Dodgers will struggle in the run category because Muncy is sill inexperienced in the postseason and Machado, and Grandal have always hit very poorly in the postseason. Conversely, Milwaukee has done well despite its second best hitter in the regular season, Lorenzo Cain, slumping. Cain is very experienced in the playoffs with a career postseason BA of .276, so I expect him to pick up his performance. The Brewers have the stronger and deeper bullpen that can carry them. Plus, their starters are showing good form. They defeated a much hotter Colorado team and they should deter you from betting on the Dodgers.
The Dodgers won the NLDS in four games and are now four wins away from making it to their second straight World Series. Game 1 of the NLCS in Milwaukee is on Thursday (time TBD). Let’s preview this series from LA’s perspective.
How They Got Here
The Dodgers began 2018 with a hangover after losing Game Seven of the World Series against Houston. It took them until June to get above .500. Most importantly, they got hot at the right time. They’ve now won seven of their last eight. Every win against Atlanta in the NLDS came by at least three runs. What helped them get hot was the boosts that the acquired for their lineup. Justin Turner became healthy. He led the team with a .312 BA and is batting .357 in the playoffs. Superstar Manny Machado was the biggest acquisition. He slugs .487. Brian Dozier also came from Minnesota to add depth on the bench.
LA’s biggest strength is its pitching. The starters posted the second-highest regular-season ERA, 3.40. Walker Buehler hadn’t made a start before this season. He achieved a 2.62 regular season ERA. He’s one of three starters who achieved an ERA under 3.00—Hyun-JIn Ryu and Clayton Kershaw were the others. Buehler endured his first playoff start and is responsible for LA’s only postseason loss. The 24-year old will grow from that experience, which came on the road. Ryu and Kershaw combined for 15 shutout innings in the NLDS. The bullpen was also solid, spearheaded by closer Kenley Jansen, who answered doubts about his form with a pair of shutout innings against Atlanta. The Dodgers’ pen boasted the eighth-best regular season ERA and only allowed a run against the Braves. So, even with a couple important hitters like Machado slumping, the Dodgers could still defeat Atlanta with ease on the strength of its pitching.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Moving on to the NLCS! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LADetermined?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LADetermined</a> <a href="https://t.co/IPtCbdKFzE">pic.twitter.com/IPtCbdKFzE</a></p>— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) <a href=" ">9. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Odds
Entering the season, the Dodgers were favored at +300 to win the NL and were +500 to win the World Series, behind Houston. Currently, the price for the Dodgers to win the NL is -110 and +350 to win the World Series. The price is the same for LA’s next opponent, Milwaukee, and Houston is favored to repeat as World Series champion. The Dodgers have the prestige and higher expectations built by a history in which they’ve won six World Series and almost won a seventh last year. The Brewers, conversely, have never won a World Series. Unlike LA, nobody expected small-market Milwaukee to make it this far. Nevertheless, the pricing seems fair because the Brewers are also extremely hot. Like L.A., they trailed in the division standings entering September and won the division in a bonus game between the Regular Season and playoffs. With strong hitting and pitching they swept Colorado. Although the Brewers do have some key guys with postseason experience, there is zero pressure on their shoulders.
Head-to-Head
Both teams faced off seven times in the regular season. Every game came in the second half. The Dodgers won the series 4-3. Four of the games were decided by two runs or fewer. Then there was that time when Milwaukee allowed a franchise-high 21 runs. The Dodgers won two of four at home and two of three on the road. Although Milwaukee has home advantage in this series, LA has already won a series in Milwaukee. Granted, LA won that series when Milwaukee was in a major slump.
In terms of players to watch out for, the Dodgers have some hitters who didn’t contribute to LA’s effort against Atlanta but are still worth watching out for. Matt Kemp has been lackluster, but he slugged .583 against the Brewers in the regular season. Yasmani Grandal is also cold in the playoffs, but he hit over .400 and slugged over .800 against the Brewers. Joc Pedersen slugged .667 against them.
In terms of pitchers, there’s more than just the trio of Buehler, Ryu, and Kershaw. Reliever Caleb Ferguson pitched four shutout innings, yielding only one hit, against Milwaukee. He has thrown 1.2 shutout innings in the postseason. Also, Pedro Baez has two shutout innings and he allowed one run in three innings against Milwaukee.
Betting Verdict
The Dodgers are not worth laying the small chalk (-110) to win the series. They’ve been steamrolling through the playoffs even though they’ve been underachieving in several regards. In terms of hitting, Max Muncy, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal are batting under .200. In terms of pitching, Buehler struggled in his first outing. The thing is that I think they will continue to underachieve. The Dodgers will struggle in the run category because Muncy is sill inexperienced in the postseason and Machado, and Grandal have always hit very poorly in the postseason. Conversely, Milwaukee has done well despite its second best hitter in the regular season, Lorenzo Cain, slumping. Cain is very experienced in the playoffs with a career postseason BA of .276, so I expect him to pick up his performance. The Brewers have the stronger and deeper bullpen that can carry them. Plus, their starters are showing good form. They defeated a much hotter Colorado team and they should deter you from betting on the Dodgers.
