Dodgers To Gang Up On Rival San Francisco
Los Angeles Dodgers (43-21) at San Francisco (26-36)
When: 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
L.A.'s Rich Hill (2-1, 2.25 ERA) shows great form, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He allowed two runs in his other start.
The southpaw Hill relies on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 97 percent of his arsenal. Both have been effective. His fastball yields a .200 opposing BA, his curveball .233.
Hill's curveball is his famous pitch. His comfort with it is evident in his ability to elevate it in the strike zone and to start off the count with it. He places it with 5.61% frequency in an uppermost corner of the zone and he throws it over 30% of the time as a first pitch. His curveball is particularly effective against same-handed batters. They only have two singles against it in 61 pitches because they struggle to perceive its approach and to follow its funky movement.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rich Hill, Filthy 76mph Curveball. <a href="https://t.co/HZxybJnhqG">pic.twitter.com/HZxybJnhqG</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">October 28, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Hill's fastball is also serviceable with its moderate glove-side movement and extreme amount of spin. For the latter, it ranks in the 91st percentile. Spin deceives batters as to a pitch's location and gives it the appearance of rising in the strike zone. Most of Hill's fastballs therefore tend to generate whiffs in the upper parts of the zone, where Hill reliably places them.
San Francisco ranks dead-last in slugging .336 against lefties. A lot of their top hitters are left-handed, which makes them a salivating match-up for Hill. Their top slugger, Pablo Sandoval, is a switch-hitter. But he hits only .222 against lefties. For these reasons, San Fran is yielding -4.3 units against southpaws. It also yields -6.8 units as an underdog.
Jeff Samardzija (3-4, 3.61 ERA) is in a bad spot for San Francisco. He has been consistently inconsistent, so expectations must be low when he comes off a strong start. Samardzija has conceded one run or fewer in five different starts. After each one, with one exception, he yielded an ERA well over 5.00 in the following start.
Location is Samardzija's primary source of inconsistency. Whereas Hill has thrown over half his pitches in the strike zone in each of his last four starts, Samardzija's zone percentage vacillates heavily. He has thrown over 40% of his pitches for strikes in three of his last five outings. In the other two he failed to reach 40%.
Given Samardzija's struggles with location, it's interesting to note the steep drop in walk rate from last season. He's walking fewer batters because he's giving in more often. He's throwing more strikes in situations when he has to in order to avoid a walk and he often leaves his pitches in more hittable parts of the plate.
L.A. matches up well with Samardzija. It is 31-12 against right-handed pitching, yielding +14.9 units. L.A. also yields +16.3 units when favored. Samardzija is yielding an 5.18 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) against lefties and lefties anchor L.A.'s lineup. Samardzija did have a strong outing when he faced the Dodgers on April 29. His 6.43 xFIP in that game suggests he had one of his worst performances in the season, but lucked out by yielding a low BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) despite barely generating any soft contact. Watch out for Cody Bellinger, who has at least one hit in 12 out of his last 13 games. Max Muncy and Corey Seager are each batting at least .300 in their past seven days.
L.A.'s bullpen has been one of the best lately in terms of ERA. It's also significantly fresher since San Fran utilized four of its five best relievers in last night's contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers (43-21) at San Francisco (26-36)
When: 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
MLB Pick: Dodgers RL
L.A.'s Rich Hill (2-1, 2.25 ERA) shows great form, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He allowed two runs in his other start.
The southpaw Hill relies on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 97 percent of his arsenal. Both have been effective. His fastball yields a .200 opposing BA, his curveball .233.
Hill's curveball is his famous pitch. His comfort with it is evident in his ability to elevate it in the strike zone and to start off the count with it. He places it with 5.61% frequency in an uppermost corner of the zone and he throws it over 30% of the time as a first pitch. His curveball is particularly effective against same-handed batters. They only have two singles against it in 61 pitches because they struggle to perceive its approach and to follow its funky movement.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rich Hill, Filthy 76mph Curveball. <a href="https://t.co/HZxybJnhqG">pic.twitter.com/HZxybJnhqG</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">October 28, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Hill's fastball is also serviceable with its moderate glove-side movement and extreme amount of spin. For the latter, it ranks in the 91st percentile. Spin deceives batters as to a pitch's location and gives it the appearance of rising in the strike zone. Most of Hill's fastballs therefore tend to generate whiffs in the upper parts of the zone, where Hill reliably places them.
San Francisco ranks dead-last in slugging .336 against lefties. A lot of their top hitters are left-handed, which makes them a salivating match-up for Hill. Their top slugger, Pablo Sandoval, is a switch-hitter. But he hits only .222 against lefties. For these reasons, San Fran is yielding -4.3 units against southpaws. It also yields -6.8 units as an underdog.
Jeff Samardzija (3-4, 3.61 ERA) is in a bad spot for San Francisco. He has been consistently inconsistent, so expectations must be low when he comes off a strong start. Samardzija has conceded one run or fewer in five different starts. After each one, with one exception, he yielded an ERA well over 5.00 in the following start.
Location is Samardzija's primary source of inconsistency. Whereas Hill has thrown over half his pitches in the strike zone in each of his last four starts, Samardzija's zone percentage vacillates heavily. He has thrown over 40% of his pitches for strikes in three of his last five outings. In the other two he failed to reach 40%.
Given Samardzija's struggles with location, it's interesting to note the steep drop in walk rate from last season. He's walking fewer batters because he's giving in more often. He's throwing more strikes in situations when he has to in order to avoid a walk and he often leaves his pitches in more hittable parts of the plate.
L.A. matches up well with Samardzija. It is 31-12 against right-handed pitching, yielding +14.9 units. L.A. also yields +16.3 units when favored. Samardzija is yielding an 5.18 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) against lefties and lefties anchor L.A.'s lineup. Samardzija did have a strong outing when he faced the Dodgers on April 29. His 6.43 xFIP in that game suggests he had one of his worst performances in the season, but lucked out by yielding a low BABIP, (batting average of balls in play) despite barely generating any soft contact. Watch out for Cody Bellinger, who has at least one hit in 12 out of his last 13 games. Max Muncy and Corey Seager are each batting at least .300 in their past seven days.
L.A.'s bullpen has been one of the best lately in terms of ERA. It's also significantly fresher since San Fran utilized four of its five best relievers in last night's contest.
