Do the Heat have ANY chance?

[xpression syst_m]

planning on betting all the dogs on the ml this evening and looking to pass on the bulls/nets game and the heat/suns, i bet plenty of large underdogs like the heat, but it seems basically impossible in my eyes for them to pull off this upset. ml sitting at +2300 (4.16% chance), opinions on if you guys think it warrants a bet, would hate to leave money on the table if im betting the board anyways, but also sucks putting money in with no confidence. planning to bet 1 unit on each game.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Theres a reason its +2300 !

I think they can cover the 18 though.

GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

i'd say they have a 4.15 percent chance :an_roll_laugh:
not worth it.

 

[JPicks]

put your money on green. better odds

 

[redbearde]

I would say no, there's essentially no chance for the junior varsity squad to beat the Suns.

 

[SportsNut]

Well yesterday I said that if Det traveled to NO under the curent circumstances and they played the game a 1,000 times maybe the Hornets could win 5 out of those games. Here I would say that if these teams met under the current circumstances Miami in Pho could win maybe 2 out of 1000 tries.....the Suns ML is actually cheap......anything can happen in sports but most huge upsets happen at home IMO..

I mean not only is Miami shorthanded its coach is also out. Besides that Mourning has limitations and Jason Williams has the bum knee still...So can Dorrell Wright , Gary Payton , Jason Kapono , Udonis Haslem and Robert Hite outscore the highest scoring offense in the NBA ??

 

[abcs]

Raja bell is out... he is training for kobe in the octagon

 

[Killa]

Ohhh shit, Dan is betting blanket ML dogs again? Hide the women and children

 

[xpression syst_m]

alrite, im passing on the heat, taking the other 10, though I'm not too thrilled with sixers, mavs, or cavs, ill hope for 5-5 or better, dogs have been retched on the ml's for much too long

 

[xpression syst_m]

Here I would say that if these teams met under the current circumstances Miami in Pho could win maybe 2 out of 1000 tries.....

love how you threw in the "maybe", absolutely classic. was very hard not throwing some cash on the heat ml, but i was able to refrain. forgot to bet nuggets ml as i thought i did already, but i usually wait till gametime to play lakers' opposition ml as they are the premier public team, hope pinny offers multi-way 2h lines for that game, but doubt it. so far 3 winners in cavs +170, celtics +222, and mavs +210, and 5 losers (magic, hawks, jazz, sixers, and clippers -- sixers ml always a tease when i bet them) with knicks and maybe nuggets pending.

 

[SportsNut]

I thought about it long & hard and current circumstances basically meant with rest and such...seriously how could Miami even beat Pho?? One time let alone two..I loved Pho tonite..but its hard to get excited about -19..Miami isnt even NewOrleans right now they are that flawed...shorthanded and your only inside presence has the flu and a replacement kidney!

I would hope you laid off Den after that 1st Q...that line was so soft I should have pounded LAL...so I think you went 4-5...at basically an avg win of +200...thats pretty much +3units....very solid...obviously Philly would have made your nite...seems there is just to much seperation between teams now.....the bottom NBA teams are becoming real crap..

 

[xpression syst_m]

I thought about it long & hard and current circumstances basically meant with rest and such...seriously how could Miami even beat Pho?? One time let alone two..I loved Pho tonite..but its hard to get excited about -19..Miami isnt even NewOrleans right now they are that flawed...shorthanded and your only inside presence has the flu and a replacement kidney!

I would hope you laid off Den after that 1st Q...that line was so soft I should have pounded LAL...so I think you went 4-5...at basically an avg win of +200...thats pretty much +3units....very solid...obviously Philly would have made your nite...seems there is just to much seperation between teams now.....the bottom NBA teams are becoming real crap..

they are awful, glad i passed, but i would've lost my mind if that had shocked the world and pulled it off. yeah, philly sucks, but that's the deal with ml's, you'll lose the close ones more often than not, but got no problem losing money on a +270 dog that had chances to win in both regulation and OT. gl to you today bud :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

if you hit 40% in ML dogs, you should be up $ and happy. I caught 2 wins and 3 losses.

How'd it go for you yesterday?

 

[xpression syst_m]

if you hit 40% in ML dogs, you should be up $ and happy. I caught 2 wins and 3 losses.

How'd it go for you yesterday?

I bet mostly dogs redbearde, especially in tennis, and yes, I'd be extremely happy with 40% clip on ML dogs considering the average dog price I usually bet (probably over +250 odds on average).

Yesterday, was 4-5, a little over grand profit.

 

[redbearde]

Very nice sir...very nice.

Card looks ML shitty to me for Saturday. What do you think?

 

[xpression syst_m]

Very nice sir...very nice.

Card looks ML shitty to me for Saturday. What do you think?

busy with college hoops at the moment, but off the surface, these might be worth a look (still got 6hrs to gametimes, so a lot can change of course):

hawks
hornets
nuggets

dont really like the other dogs at all, i dont really like these all that much either, but i think they got a better chance than the odds indicate

 

[redbearde]

maybe I'm just a big wuss, but I've had enough of New Orleans for a while...the Nuggets are an interesting thought...perhaps it goes up some?

Hawks need to show me something positive at all before I'll consider them.

GL tonight.

 

[xpression syst_m]

jazz just haven't played well on road recently, 2-4 L6 with the two wins being (1) the miracle in atlanta where they erased that 20+ point 2h lead and (2) another squeeker in memphis where they edged them out in the last minute by 3.

 

[SportsNut]

Utah has not played well on the road but they are still much better then Denver. How they opened that Den -1 is crazy...I mean this Utah team also was -5.5 in Atl and -3 in Mmephis teams that are no worse then present day Denver. very bad line...been playing Utah all the way and will continue to do so up to -5..Its really not a miracle in ATL cause Utah is the better team and the better shines in crunch time...its an extreme yes but something representive of what happens to bad teams...

Hawks just look clueless I mean they didnt lead for even a second last nite...have played absolutely horrid for 6 games now. have to fly back from Toronto....I hate road chalk but its geting to the point where as a linesmaker you have to beg people to be on these teams...

Hornets and Heat lack firepower. Jacksonis back getting in game shape but what do you expect from teams missing 4 key players...thats basicaly more then half of your rotation...I wont lay -9 but I ownt waste ML dough on NO right now...I understand better then most the attractiveness of bad teams to a bettor its just these teams perceptions havent caught up to reality yet. Theyare much worse then perceived. Miami last nite is a perfect example. How can you knock these guys for losing by 25? It was a great effort to basically be down 9 after 3 quarters..tremendous effort actually...Barbosa is probably better offensively then any Heat player last nite and the Heat have no defensive specialists outside of Zo...

BOL...I am with you to much time and football to worry about the NBA till later...

 

[SportsNut]

Oh yeah and the point was before Barbosa you only have Nash , Amare and Matrix to deal with...they run 4 guys out with a legit shot to score a 100pts on any given nite....Miami didnt even have that many 10 pt scorers on the floor...