dk fd discussion week 14

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Gyno

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Heres my Thursday lineup


QB Add player Carson Palmer
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> MIN@ARI <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$8,300
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button> <!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
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RB Add player
Shaun Draughn
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> SF@CLE <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$6,500
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
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RB Add player
Thomas Rawls
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> SEA@BAL <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$7,400
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
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WR Add player
Larry Fitzgerald
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --><abbr title="ankle" class="player-badge" ng-if="::player.injuryStatus" data-injury-status="p"></abbr><!-- end ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' -->Breaking news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> MIN@ARI <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$7,200
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
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WR Add player
Eric Decker
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --><abbr title="knee" class="player-badge" ng-if="::player.injuryStatus" data-injury-status="p"></abbr><!-- end ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> TEN@NYJ <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$7,300
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
29501.png

WR Add player
Brandin Cooks
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> NO@TB <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$7,100
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
33076.png

TE Add player
Travis Kelce
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --><abbr title="groin" class="player-badge" ng-if="::player.injuryStatus" data-injury-status="p"></abbr><!-- end ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> SD@KC <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 1:00PM
$6,000
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
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K Add player
Dan Bailey
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' -->Recent news<!-- end ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> DAL@GB <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 4:25PM
$4,500
<!-- ngIf: ::(draft.mode !== 'view') --> <button class="player-view-toggle" ng-click="draft.setFilter('position', player.position)" toggle="draft.showPlayerView"></button>
<!-- end ngRepeat: player in draft.lineup -->
12546.png

D Add player
Arizona Cardinals
<!-- ngIf: ::player.injuryStatus --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'recent' --> <!-- ngIf: ::player.newsStatus === 'breaking' --> </player-flags> <!-- ngIf: draft.contest.sport === 'MLB' -->
<!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.awayTeam.team.id --> <!-- ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> MIN@ARI <!-- end ngIf: player.team.id === player.fixture.homeTeam.team.id --> 8:25PM
$5,100
 
Why so many Thursday guys ? Or why any at all may be better question. Vikes have one of best slot corners in league and while I'm sure Palmer will have a decent game there are plenty of better Sunday options.
 
To have Thursday action. How many viking defensive players are out?
 
Gabe said:
To have Thursday action. How many viking defensive players are out?
Click to expand...

You can have Thursday action by entering contests and fading the game. Treat it like an under bet. Very rarely do you need someone from a Thursday game to do well for the week. They are almost always over owned and under perform
 
I usually enter at least 10 on Thursday... usually never have a player in the game. Done really well. I do have the AZ kicker in 2 lines I believe.
 
Plus if you wait, you can see a decent projection of % owned for Sunday. I use this https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LaUWBoUYVg7vNxon2Fk_9AdQlFFx7nlzDUp_kmviCVI/pubhtml# It is helpful.

Here is a potential for me:

  • 24849.png

    QB
    Jameis Winston
    Recent news
    NO@TB1:00PM
    $7,800
    [*]
    6779.png

    RB
    LeSean McCoy
    Recent news
    BUF@PHI1:00PM
    $7,900
    [*]
    11419.png

    RB
    C.J. Spiller
    Recent news
    NO@TB1:00PM
    $4,800
    [*]
    32384.png

    WR
    Mike Evans
    Recent news
    NO@TB1:00PM
    $8,000
    [*]
    31394.png

    WR
    Jarvis Landry
    Recent news
    NYG@MIA8:30PM
    $7,100
    [*]
    28643.png

    WR
    Allen Robinson
    Recent news
    IND@JAC1:00PM
    $8,500
    [*]
    33076.png

    TE
    Travis Kelce
    SD@KC1:00PM
    $6,000
    [*]
    6427.png

    K
    Connor Barth
    Recent news
    NO@TB1:00PM
    $4,600
    [*]
    12550.png

    [*]D
    Seattle Seahawks
    SEA@BAL1:00PM
    $5,300
 
I'll start off with the game that everyone seems to be targeting.

NO/Tampa

Everyone seems to be targeting Jameis Winston against the Saints who have given up 35 passing TDS this year, and at least 4TD passes in the last 5 games. Here is my take on this game. Lovie Smith is known for trying to establish the run. I believe that if they get up to a bigger lead, they get Doug Martin and Charles Sims going. Winston's ceiling imho is 250/2, which gets value at his price point, but will not be the winning QB on any 1st place tournament team in any major GPP. Last week Lovie started the game with 12 straight rushes. Winston was the highest owned QB in the Thursday night slates. If you're targeting Tampa, I would go after ASJ, he lead the team in RZ targets last week after his first game back. I trust Jackson over Evans. On the Saints side of the ball, I will be playing Spiller. Peyton was quoted this week saying, "I'm going to find out what we have in CJ Spiller" Hightower got the carries when Ingram went down, but I think in a game where game script expects them to be trailing, Spiller gets a majority of the snaps. TB is also 2nd in DVOA against the rush. I also like Ben Watson from the Saints.

Buffalo/Philly
The Shady McCoy revenge game...finally people will be all over him, he's amassed over 100+ yards from scrimmage in 6 straight games. Karlos williams is out again, so hello usage. I believe just as Rex will try to get Shady tons of opportunities, Chip will try and shut down Shady and showcase his replacement.....remember these guys have huge ego's and they don't want to be proven wrong. His replacement this week seems to be Ryan Matthews, who is a great value on DK. Sproles also has a ton of upside, but his floor is pretty dog shit. Bradford is a sneaky play in GPPs, no one will be on him, and Buffalo does not have a good defense. They have allowed multiple TD passes in 9/11 games, 2nd only to the Saints. Watkins, is getting very few targets, but he's making the absolute most out of them. Tryod is a great play this week, he's torched the last two defenses better than the ones he's facing this week, Houston/KC. In this game, I'm playing Tyrod/Watkins/Bradford/Matthews in GPPS, McCoy in cash.

SF/Cleveland
Put Shaun Draughn in your lineups. He's getting the usage, and is the lone back. I've also been playing SF as a defense in GPP's I hate anyone from Cleveland, Hartline would be the only guy I would think about playing with Benjamin likely to miss.

DET/STL
Det had momentum, and then the hail mary happened. I think they really fail to show up here. Imho, Gurley gets going here. STL has no identity, and they only have 1 choice. He will be low owned, and he is due to go off. Stafford is due for one of his terrible games. STL w/their struggles ranks 2/6 vs 1WR/2WR in DVOA. St. Louis is a sneaky defensive play as well.

Tennesse/New York Jets
Fitzmagic, fitzmagic, fitzmagic..look the guy just throws TDS. I will be all over him and Marshall again this week. Tennesse ranks 23/30 against 1WR/2WR, so i'd also include Decker in your lineups. You all saw what A-Rob did against this Tennessee defense last week. In a week where Robinson, OBJ, Brown etc will be highly targeted, Marshall/Decker are phenomenal pivots off those guys. With Revis back, no one on Tennessee gets a nod from me. Ivory will get some play, because I love RBs that are home favorites. Powell had alot of run last week, but that was in a quasi shootout, which i don't believe this game will be.

Pit/Cincy
The last game between these two teams was a dud....low scoring and boring...it was also Big Bens first game back after missing 4 games w/injury. Look, everyone in these games is in play...there has been some narrative on twitter about AJG home stats vs road stats....there's a pretty big disparity...Eifert looks to be back...thats not good for AJG owners.....APJ looks to be out, so Brown is in play.....I also Love Bryant, cuz he's just so sick, and Williams gets alot of love because of his salary vs perceived value. You can't go wrong having players in this game....alot of people will be going this route. Pitt just looked fantastic in primetime, and they are averaging 35pts a game over the last few.... I will have some exposure, but i will be targeting other games, to differentiate my teams.
 
Chicago/Washington

Sneaky, sneaky play that I'm going to have alot of exposure too, is Matt Forte. He had 26 total touches last week. Langford/Carey had 17 (which is alot), but absolutely no one will be on Forte this week because of the time share. I really try to be contrarian, but just being contrarian to be contrarian is stupid and foolish. I think Forte is a great option. Washington's defense is 18th in DVOA against the run....which isn't great, but isn't bad either.

They gave up the following yards OTR to RBS
Stewart 21/100
Blount 20/129/1
Ivory 20/146/1
Freeman 27/153/1
GIANTS RB 32/94/1

The weather is also supposed to be shitty, with a lot of wind, so that's another good thing that's in Fortes favor.

M. Bennett and Wilson both went to IR this week. Which provides more targets for other players.

Not a huge fan of any on Washington's team. I had alot of Cousins last week, and it didnt really work out. Djax has scored in 3 straight games, and Reed is always a great start. Matt Jones is a sneaky play, he had 18 touches last week and Chicago ranks dead last in DVOA against the run. Morris had very little involvement in the Monday game.....I will have Jones on maybe 5% of my teams.
 
Seattle/Baltimore

I see a lot of people on Doug Baldwin, regression is coming. If you take Baldwin this week, I believe you're chasing points. Players just can't consistently put up those numbers unless your ODB/Julio...Doug Baldwin is not. The line favors Rawls way more than Wilson or Baldwin. Rawls is in play for sure. Jimmy Clausen is beyond horrific, he makes Brandon Weeden look like Tom Brady. Seattle defense should be chalky, but why wouldn't they be? The opportunity for TO/sacks, tds etc, is in play. Also the 2nd straight week for Seattle to play a noon start, 2nd game on the road in a row..Seattle has scored 29+ in every game since there buy....I can't say it enough I truly believe regression is coming. This team isn't and explosive offense.

Buck Allen could be a good GPP play, because there is no other spot for Baltimore to get any offense going.
 
MNF

Giants/Miami
I'm stoked for this game. I think this will be the game that everyone thinks Cincy/Pitt will be. Both defenses suck dick.

WRs ODB, Landry, Parker all in play. I think ODB, has to be in alot of your cash and GPP lineups. ODB, ODB, ODB, ODB...it's going to be fucking epic what he is going to do to Brent Grimes on MNF.
RB Miller should ball out, as long as they give him the ball.
Both Eli and Tannehill should be in some of your GPP lineups. I love them both in the game, and i think its a high scoring affair.


I'll try to get some more info about this game later.
 
Marlo said:
Seattle/Baltimore

I see a lot of people on Doug Baldwin, regression is coming. If you take Baldwin this week, I believe you're chasing points. Players just can't consistently put up those numbers unless your ODB/Julio...Doug Baldwin is not. The line favors Rawls way more than Wilson or Baldwin. Rawls is in play for sure. Jimmy Clausen is beyond horrific, he makes Brandon Weeden look like Tom Brady. Seattle defense should be chalky, but why wouldn't they be? The opportunity for TO/sacks, tds etc, is in play. Also the 2nd straight week for Seattle to play a noon start, 2nd game on the road in a row..Seattle has scored 29+ in every game since there buy....I can't say it enough I truly believe regression is coming. This team isn't and explosive offense.

Buck Allen could be a good GPP play, because there is no other spot for Baltimore to get any offense going.
Click to expand...

:stretcher::smashclock:
 
Any one do anything this week? I lost $400, on 400+ contests. Luckily OBJ did what OBJ does, and saved me from a horrendous week.

Went against one of my main rules with Forte,(not being over exposed to a RB that will share touches) and it killed me. Really thought the matchup could have been/should have been exploited. He still averaged 4.5 ypc, but he never got enough run.

Injuries and game script killed me from having a positive week. I had alot of Rawls, Stewart....Rawls going out could have def changed the game script....but oh well. was still dumb not to have a portion of the best QB/WR tandem over the last 3 weeks.
 
it happens. losing $400 is nothing for you with the success you had. i did my standard 5 leagues. cashed in a whopping 0 of them. in two for some reason i went with teh alex smith-maclin stack. figured theyd do some damage home vs SD but no beans. Sefarian Jenkins also shit the bed as my cheap TE i used on all teams.

tried hoyer-hopinins in another. that went well. in fact aj green and landry are the only thing that saved me from a historically awful performance
 
starting to look into week 15 now...ill reserve thougths for the thread that im sure will be started
 
D-Woww said:
it happens. losing $400 is nothing for you with the success you had. i did my standard 5 leagues. cashed in a whopping 0 of them. in two for some reason i went with teh alex smith-maclin stack. figured theyd do some damage home vs SD but no beans. Sefarian Jenkins also shit the bed as my cheap TE i used on all teams.

tried hoyer-hopinins in another. that went well. in fact aj green and landry are the only thing that saved me from a historically awful performance
Click to expand...

I added some AJ Green, when I had heard that he had torched Pitt in his previous matchups....which went against his home/road splits, and eifert coming back.

One thing to keep in mind about playing against NE, is BB schemes against taking away the top player from the other team. Something to keep in mind for the future.
 
D-Woww said:
starting to look into week 15 now...ill reserve thougths for the thread that im sure will be started
Click to expand...

Everyone will be on Russ and Baldwin, with Cleveland coming to town.

Recency bias, says that since Winston shit the bed, people will not be trying to stack against NO....which also falls in line with STafford/Megatron shitting the bed last week.

OBJ is going against Josh Norman......which is elite vs elite.

Nuke gets Vontae Davis

Brown gets Denver

gonna be a sick week
 
Have lost all my profits last two weeks. Did terrible this week.

Nonetheless my season long teams I am in playoffs in 3 out of 4.
 
my week was over about 10 minutes after kickoff, had about 40% ben and 40% dalton on around 70 lineups so needless to say I had an awful week. Gotta think that game plays out much different without the injury, for both teams. I even had a lot of Crowell, would have been a very good week if that game was played with dalton

Only 3 full slate weeks left but they run contests the first 3 weeks of playoffs as well, with some pretty big contests the first 2 weeks.
 
Actually had my best weekend ever on DK last week scoring 195. Of course I only entered that lineup into two small beginner contests so it didn't amount to shit but 2 out of 57 & 88 out of 11,000 helps the ego...not so much the bankroll.
 
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