Divol's NBA Playoff's thoughts and bets thread

[divol]

Regular season record goes here (last bet in January):
Post season record goes here:

Usually suck at first games of any series, so probably will stick with props bets or won't post my plays for first games of any series or keep them "unofficial"...

Can't promise to keep the thread alive, but will promise to try (really short on time this year).

 

[divol]

Wiz - Hawks

Teams met 4 times this season and scores were 204, 198, 187 and 213.

Wiz home score averages 214.7 points, while Hawks road score averages 202.3 score. That's 208.5. But first half average is only 102.25 points and bookies reacted to that, setting first half total at 100 points only.
Like the Wiz here as well, but not enough for Game 1 bet...
Lean Under here, but not enough to make an official bet.

 

[Hulu]

Good to see you back posting divol. I've always appreciated your thoughts. Best of luck.

 

[divol]

GSW - Portland

Teams met 4 times this season and GSW won all 4, but covered only 2. They scored 127, 135, 125 and 113. I believe it will be a sweep or at worst, GSW winning 4 - 1, but hate to play such high lines.
But... GSW Over 117.5 for 1.95 odds... I believe that GSW will average 120+ in this series.
Portland can't guard Dubs guards...
Still.... first game and all...
GSW Over 117.5 points, 1.95 odds - 4 units play.

Houston - Oklahoma

Don't agree with all the Rockets love... Thunder are good and last year they proved they can step it up in postseason. I rate their chances much higher than the books offer.
Rockets won 3 out of 4 meetings this season, but three of the four games ended by 3 points or less and the only big win by Rockets (by 12 points), was due to last quarter effort, with Thunder actually leading after 3 quarters.
Rockets have about 60% chance at winning the series, maybe even less.
Thunder to win the series, 4.13 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Boston - Chicago

I honestly don't know how to judge the series. 2 - 2 in regular season, Bulls had so many turmoils and problems and suddenly they found their rhythm, with Wade injured. Now he is back and he proved against Toronto last year, that in the playoffs, it's a different game...
On top of that, all the story around Thomas and the death of his sister...
Want to see at least one game before making any conclusions...

 

[B.A.R.]

GL this postseason Divol.

 

[divol]

Two bets I like tonight:

Boston + Raps + Clips to win, 1.98 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

It's hard to trust Boston at the moment, because Rondo is focused to win, Wade is in the playoffs and Boston under Stevens, still 2 - 9 in the playoffs... Still... Bulls are mediocre at best and Boston should be able at least to find way to win here. I want to take Clips ATS here, because they proven they can beat Utah by DD earlier this season and Jazz did theirs in Game 1, but I don't trust the Clips ATS. But SU, have no problem. Toronto still should get past the Bucks in the series and that means winning tonight.

Under 206.5 in Boston, 1.92 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

The total makes a lot of sense, with teams playing 5 times this season and had 208, 207 (twice), 204 and 180 points. Still... 4 out of 5 games went Under. Teams off a home loss in Game 1, play usually much better defense. Wanted to take Bulls TT Under, but decided to play overall Under in the end. Both teams should focus on defense here imo.

 

[divol]

I had a hunch not to trust Boston, but made a wrong decision here

 

[divol]

GSW Over 116.5 points, 1.925 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Durant's injury shouldn't influence GSW's scoring abilities in my opinion.

Thunder +8, 1.95 odds - 7 units play

Houston gave the first punch, but Thunder got smashed against Spurs in Game 1 last year as well and rebounded. Not the same spot obviously, but wouldn't read too much in to it as well (they also smashed Dallas in Game 1 last season and lost Game 2 btw)...
I still believe that this should be pretty even series and wouldn't put it past the Thunder to steal HCA in this one...

Wizards -5, 1.91 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

I believed in Wizards in Game 1 and see no reason not to do that again. Hawks found some good answers during the game and still lost both SU and ATS, despite Beal having a bad game majority of the game and many key momentum moments not going their way. Wizards can explode tonight.

 

[divol]

2 out of 3 and bigger play won, still... very close to sweep... if not for the 2nd quarter in Oakland...

 

[divol]

For tonight, I like all three dogs, Pacers, Griz and Raps... but a good chance I skip all three...

PG13 doesn't deserve a sweep and Cavs don't deserve it either... Game 3 is probably best chance to avoid that...
Still... Bron been so many times in this position and it usually ended up in a win. Bron always looks to close the series and that's obviously the right approach.
If the line was Pacers +4, would have played it for sure, but doubt it will go as high up...

I still think Raps win the series. I don't have much love for the Raptors and really like the Bucks, but Raps build to win now and Bucks still a player or two (depends on Parker) away from being a solid post season team. Expected to see Raps -2, so Raps as dogs... very hard to trust the Raptors postseason and I don't remember taking them even once with the line ever in the playoffs, but maybe it's time...
I'm rooting for Bucks for the series...

Memphis so far failed to show up, but I rarely (if ever) change my mind about the series and I thought it would be close ATS wise.
Still... I'm also not dumb enough to bet on my thoughts, when it appears that they been way off...

 

[divol]

Thunder -2.5, 1.98 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Obviously must win game for the Thunder and I fully expect them to give their best shot in Game 3. I rated them before the series as pretty equal, so easy bet for me here.

 

[divol]

RW's FT's caused the bet to lose by 0.5 point... so annoying...

Raptors to win, 2.19 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Obviously it won't be closed if Bucks win here, but this is a huge game for both teams. Raptors so far are terrible in the playoffs and while I hardly thought I will be backing them in the playoffs, this is actually a decent spot I believe.
My line here is PK and while Raptors are terrible in the playoffs, they got enough experience to win on a road here.

 

[edou1x]

70 <= points <= 77 and playoffs = 1 and p:margin <= -10 and rest <= 2 and division != o:division

SU:	32-12 (7.02, 72.7%)
ATS:	33-10-1 (7.56, 76.7%)	avg line: 0.5

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yep raps should bounce back after such a poor offensive effort

 

[divol]

Raptors won their must win game, overall great defensive series. Enjoying it much more than Portland - GSW or Cleveland - Indy series...

 

[B.A.R.]

Raptors won their must win game, overall great defensive series. Enjoying it much more than Portland - GSW or Cleveland - Indy series...

Raptors are setting back basketball 15 years...Guys like Lowry bricking open 3's isn't all that fun to be honest. I can do that.

I love defense too, that is why watching a team like GSW is so enjoyable. Best defense in ages in the NBA.

----------------------

Good luck on Monday action, look forward to the thoughts.

 

[divol]

Raptors are setting back basketball 15 years...Guys like Lowry bricking open 3's isn't all that fun to be honest. I can do that.

I love defense too, that is why watching a team like GSW is so enjoyable. Best defense in ages in the NBA.

----------------------

Good luck on Monday action, look forward to the thoughts.

My problem is with Portland's defense, not GSW's, which is amazing. As for Toronto - Bucks, tons of hustle, steals, blocks, fighting for every lose ball... I like it...
If GSW goes to the next round against Utah, should be great series...

 

[B.A.R.]

Fair enough :shake:

 

[divol]

I like Wizards and Raptors for tonight, but the lines are a point off where I hoped they would be, so staying off...

Really hoped Wiz will get at least 4 points. They not in a need of a road win, but a win here will do their job so much easier to secure 2nd round... All three games had a lot of runs by each team, but terrible first quarter sealed the deal for the Hawks in Game 3. This series suddenly has a lot of bad blood between two teams that don't have any history between them, as much as I remember. Wiz problem is that despite them being the better team, Beal is no show so far. Wall is amazing, Gortat is doing his, but Beal... Terrible in Game 3, bad for most of Game 1...
I believe in the Wizards tonight, but not enough to bet on them...

Hawks have trouble finding the right line ups. Coach Bud keeps throwing out there line ups till something sticks, but Wizards making runs during those bad line ups. Hawks have too many players that good only on one side of the court and need to choose between defense and offense all the time and that looks bad.

Toronto should win this one, but Bucks were in the game for all 4 of the first 4 games and it's hard to take 6 points in such a spot for me.
On top of that, Lowry is struggling a lot so far.
Raptors have more fire power, bigger rotation and more experience, but not enough to lay 6 points with them....

 

[divol]

Wizards -6, 1.97 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Both teams took care of home court. Expect it to continue...

 

[divol]

Wizards +5, 1.97 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
Wizards to win the series, 2.73 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle

Played Wizards in Game 6 and in general, big believer in this team for few seasons now and they finally improved their weakest link, the bench and finally got solid SF position in Porter. Beal still has ups and downs, but Wall is playing on another level right now. Actually in regular season, it was the other way around (despite the fact that Bradley was on Beal and Thomas on Wall) with Beal going off and Wall struggling.
Wizards have huge advantage in the paint, have the best player on the court and I actually like Brooks - one of the few coaches that outcoached Pop in playoff series (though Stevens obviously better coach on paper).

 

[Hulu]

Glad to see you on this as well. BOL with it

 

[divol]

Hate Game 1 bets... need to stop doing them and that's why I'm not playing Utah +13 tonight...

Wizards +5.5, 1.89 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Still believe in the Wizards for reasons already mentioned...

 

[Hulu]

Are you worried at all about Morris' status?

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Divol

 

[divol]

That was annoying... to say the least...

 

[divol]

Cleveland -7, 1.98 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle
SAS -5, 1.90 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Cleveland can sweep Toronto, that doesn't mean that they will, but they can. In Cleveland, I really can't see Raps giving them a fight. There is something wrong with the Raptors, that don't have the toughness that teams like Boston, Bulls, Pistons and Pacers had, when they gave Bron a good fight. Toronto (as the Clippers), are examples of good regular season teams, that can't be relied upon in the playoffs imo...

As for SAS, I don't know if it will be a blowout, but it's very hard to believe that this series will go back to Houston 0 - 2 and I'm ok with laying 5 points to check how Spurs respond...
Was thinking of taking the loser of Game 1 in Game 2 anyway, but Spurs to lose both SU and ATS... hard to resist for me here. Expected higher line, so worried a bit...

 

[divol]

A good night at last...
Wizards tonight better come through...

 

[divol]

Wizards -5.5, 1.94 odds - 9 units play - Pinnacle

Really hope not to see another IT heroics here. Wizards could have easily been 2 - 0, but instead, on a verge of a 0 - 3... always hard to lay points, but this been very even series and it should be 1 - 2 both SU and ATS...

 

[B.A.R.]

Good night last night, good luck tonight.

 

[divol]

Finally B2B winning nights...

 

[divol]

Mad for missing the Rockets in Game 4... just didn't have any time that day...

Wizards +4, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Boston needed Morris injury in Game 1 and IT heroics in Game 2 to win the games and Wizards could have easily won, not to say cover in those games...
It feels that Stevens is running out of ideas how to stop Wizards starting unit...

 

[divol]

Believed Wizars will win the series in 6 games, so was a must play for me here... too bad Celtics thought otherwise...

 

[divol]

Rockets -7, 1.89 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Really not too crazy about the line, but so far, had the right gut feeling about all first 5 games of the series, so will roll with this one.
Till Game 5, all 4 games were blowouts, so I hope Game 5 was the odd one...
On the side of caution, regular season games ended in wins by 2, 2, 2 and 6 points, so as I said, keeping it a bit smaller than regular size bet.
TP's injury lead to easy conclusion (for me), that Spurs will surprise Rockets in Game 3 and that Rockets will adjust in Game 4. Here Kawhi's health is the x-factor, both as scorer and as defender on Harden.
Overall, I don't like D'Antoni's short rotation, as I believe that Dekker, Harrell and even Williams can help, but it won't change tonight I guess...
Gasol is the only one that can punish Rockets passing wise and can cause problems when Capella is out, but Pop clearly doesn't trust him. As long as he plays 20 minutes or less, that should be enough for Rockets to win and cover I believe.

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Divol...

 

[Hulu]

I think we do see some minutes from Dekker and Harrell tonight possibly. The weakness of the 7 man rotation showed itself last game. BOL divol.

 

[Play2win]

GL Divol

 

[divol]

Pop won this one in a KO...
Didn't expect that, regardless of Kawhi's status...

 

[divol]

One play for tonight... continue to back the Wiz here...

Wizards -5, 1.92 odds - 8 units play, Pinnacle

Home teams are 5 - 0 ATS and SU in this series. In regular season it was 4 - 0 SU and ATS as well for the home team. I don't like to ride streaks, but I still feel that Wizards been the better team in this series and will back it with my money...

Overall, Wizards at home, against Hawks and Boston, managed to make not one, but 2 - 3 nice runs in each game and when a home team gets hot several times a night, it's very hard for a visiting team to get close, not to mention win...