Divisional series probs

[Alan Tongue]

The percentage number after the home starter is their predicted probability to win the game. The number at the end is the expected total. Starters are assumptions based on what I can gather.

Dodgers vs Mets
G4 could be Matz or back to DeGrom, depending on the series score, or Colon depending on Matz’s back

Assuming starters
Kershaw (63.8%) vs DeGrom 6.47
Greinke (62.2%) vs Syndergaard 6.85
Harvey (57.8%) vs Anderson 7.02
Matz (37.0%) vs Kershaw 6.59
Greinke (57.2%) vs DeGrom 6.62

Series win: Dodgers 62.9%
Correct Score:
Dodgers 3-0 12.3%
Dodgers 3-1 24.2%
Dodgers 3-2 26.4%
Mets 3-2 18.8%
Mets 3-1 12.5%
Mets 3-0 5.9%

Toronto vs Texas
Assuming it's Lewis and Holland 3 & 4

Price (66.8%) vs Gallardo 8.63
Stroman (49.9%) vs Hamels 8.99
Lewis (45.7%) vs Estrada 9.56
Holland (47.5%) vs Dickey 9.98
Price (66.8%) vs Gallardo 8.63

Series win: Toronto 62.2%
Correct Score:
Toronto 3-0 13.2%
Toronto 3-1 23.2%
Toronto 3-2 25.8%
Texas 3-2 18.4%
Texas 3-1 13.7%
Texas 3-0 5.7%

Royals vs Houston
Cueto already named for 5. Assuming Keuchel doesn't back up again and McCullers starts 4. They may go back to McHugh and Kazmir for 4 & 5.
Ventura (49.2%) vs McHugh 8.38
Cueto (56.4%) vs Kazmir 8.14
Keuchel (57.8%) vs Volquez 8.00
McCullers (53.1%) vs Ventura 8.26
Cueto (55.7%) vs McHugh 8.11

Series win: Royals 63.5%
Correct Score:
Royals 3-0 25.3%
Royals 3-1 17.8%
Royals 3-2 20.4%
Houston 3-2 17.8%
Houston 3-1 12.9%
Houston 3-0 5.9%

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks for sharing:shake:

 

[Timh]

Very interesting. So i would assume you think there is a lot of value on Texas +215 for the series and KC -130 for the series. I think Texas may have a chance to grab game 2 which could set up decent numbers on a Toronto buy back series bet at that point. If the series is 1-1 at that point what do you think the probability is on Toronto at that point to pull out the series?

 

[Alan Tongue]

Very interesting. So i would assume you think there is a lot of value on Texas +215 for the series and KC -130 for the series. I think Texas may have a chance to grab game 2 which could set up decent numbers on a Toronto buy back series bet at that point. If the series is 1-1 at that point what do you think the probability is on Toronto at that point to pull out the series?

Yes on Texas and KC. I generally us a 10% overlay, so the minimum Texas price I would have taken would be +191 and KC would hav been -137.

If the series is 1-1 I still give TOR 57.6% - 3-1 23.2%, 3-2 34.4%, TEX 3-2 25.1%, TEX 3-1 17.3%

 

[Alan Tongue]

St Louis vs Cubs

Assuming starters
Lackey (48.1% vs Lester 7.60
Garcia (51.3%) vs Hendricks 8.09
Arrieta (57.1)vs Wacha 8.30
Hammel (49.4%) vs Lynn 8.39
Lackey (48.1%) vs Lester 7.60

Series win: St Louis 42.9%
Correct Score:
St Louis 3-0 7.5%
St Louis 3-1 15.4%
St Louis 3-2 20.0%
Cubs 3-2 21.5%
Cubs 3-1 25.2%
Cubs 3-0 10.4%

 

[eggman]

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Timh]

Alan thanks for the info, greatly appreciated. :shake:

 

[DwightS]

so if all 4 series end up going 5 games, your model really likes 20 overs?

 

[Timh]

Alan - I was curious if you have any probabilities pre-game 5 of Mets/LAD for the Cubs to win the NL Pennant and also the WS? I saw like 2.5/1 on the Cubs to win the WS which seems a little short to me.