Simple really, I think KC DL has a big day disrupting Luck. Factor in weather and crowd noise, Colts OL has played great lately but this will be a huge test. Who wins in the trenches will win the game.
Also..
Mahomes played 5 games vs teams that run zone at top-8 frequencies this season, completing 64.1% of his passes at 7.99 yards per attempt with a perfect 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio against them.