Divisional Round

First take is that the legend of Nick Foles will come to an end next week in the Superdome. I feel like the Saints cover 7.5 without issue
 
Don't hate me cap but I feel like Indy should be getting less than 6. In fact I feel like getting down on it now because I don't know if it lasts.

Also the total feels about 3 points too low to me.

No hate. Who wouldn’t take Indy. What a story. 10 of 11, over such luminaries as Jax (x2),Oak, Buff, Miami, Giants, Tenn (x2), Hou (x2). I mean the line moving toward 6, what a gift!!!

:thumbsdown3:
 
Like KC, LAC and DAL off the rip. Only oppo is NO. I'm jaded, I've seen the beatdowns down south there in that dome first hand, place is a nut house. Problem is NO already beat them senseless down there this year. Only chance is if Foles is chucking deep and connecting.
 
Cap, would love to hear your thoughts on Dallas +7. GL!

Me too.....I see Dallas staying close if Dak is accurate....can he be two weeks in a row? Has he ever? I must admit there is something inside of me saying Dall could cover the 7
 
Me too.....I see Dallas staying close if Dak is accurate....can he be two weeks in a row? Has he ever? I must admit there is something inside of me saying Dall could cover the 7

Agree with you about Dak, but then I saw this yesterday...

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Now I didn't check to see the validity of those rankings, but assuming they're right...how surprising is that? Dak has the best completion percentage of any QB in NFL history? That doesn't seem like it would be even close to being true.
 
I think the stat is talking about HIS first 3 years in the league (not the last 3 years as compared to every other QB)...as compared to any of those other guys' first 3 years in the league. Still have no clue if they are accurate, but that's how I read the graphic.
 
I think the stat is talking about HIS first 3 years in the league (not the last 3 years as compared to every other QB)...as compared to any of those other guys' first 3 years in the league. Still have no clue if they are accurate, but that's how I read the graphic.

Right, that’s how I read it as well. That is how the stat is supposed to read. It still seems crazy that Dak has the highest completion percentage in NFL history in his first 3 years.
 
Right, that’s how I read it as well. That is how the stat is supposed to read. It still seems crazy that Dak has the highest completion percentage in NFL history in his first 3 years.
First 3 seasons in the league? Absolutely true. He's at 66.1%. Consider Brees is the all-time career leader at 67.3%. He didn't exceed 66% in a season until his 7th year in the league.

Dak would actually be #3 all-time career if he had the required minimum number of attempts.

On the win total, I think he's at best #4 behind Russell Wilson, Matty Ice and Marino, but not Brady. Brady didn't start a game until his 2nd year. There might be more. Wilson won 36 games his first three regular seasons, which would be tough for anyone to beat.
 
First 3 seasons in the league? Absolutely true. He's at 66.1%. Consider Brees is the all-time career leader at 67.3%. He didn't exceed 66% in a season until his 7th year in the league.

Dak would actually be #3 all-time career if he had the required minimum number of attempts.

On the win total, I think he's at best #4 behind Russell Wilson, Matty Ice and Marino, but not Brady. Brady didn't start a game until his 2nd year. There might be more. Wilson won 36 games his first three regular seasons, which would be tough for anyone to beat.

I'm assuming the stats go from when the player started, so Brady had 34 wins in his first 3 seasons. Dak has 32. And yes, Wilson had 36...so that stat is wrong on that meme.

I wasn't saying it wasn't true that he had the best completion percentage, I was saying that it's hard to believe based on everything you hear (and see) about him. He just doesn't seem to throw the ball that much (for good reason with Zeke on the team), so it doesn't seem as if he's completing that many passes...which he isn't necessarily but his percentage is great.
 
First 3 seasons in the league? Absolutely true. He's at 66.1%. Consider Brees is the all-time career leader at 67.3%. He didn't exceed 66% in a season until his 7th year in the league.

Dak would actually be #3 all-time career if he had the required minimum number of attempts.

On the win total, I think he's at best #4 behind Russell Wilson, Matty Ice and Marino, but not Brady. Brady didn't start a game until his 2nd year. There might be more. Wilson won 36 games his first three regular seasons, which would be tough for anyone to beat.

And as great as the 66% is in his first 3 seasons, it would seem that with the way the league is now, the trend of higher completion percentages will continue (with the dink and dunk that seemingly every team does now, and the ridiculous "touch pass" that is essentially a handoff)...it's possible someone bests that mark after their first 3 seasons, but it's certainly not a lock.

This season, there were 2 QBs who completed 70% of their passes, and another 4 who completed 69% of their passes. Dak came in at 68%, good for 10th in the league.
 
There's still a big learning curve in the jump from college to the pros. I did a post awhile back that showed it literally takes years for the game to slow down enough for these guys to jump their completion percentages way higher.

Dak was 10th this year in %, but only Deshaun and Wentz beat him playing less career games. Deshaun could beat Dak's mark next year, he's at 66.4 thru two season. Baker too, who had a solid 63.8 as a rookie.

Maybe Dak benefits from his "see it open" style a little to boost him %. His YPA is lower too which suggests some safer throws. He doesn't cut it loose as much as Deshaun or Mayfield.
 
There's still a big learning curve in the jump from college to the pros. I did a post awhile back that showed it literally takes years for the game to slow down enough for these guys to jump their completion percentages way higher.

Dak was 10th this year in %, but only Deshaun and Wentz beat him playing less career games. Deshaun could beat Dak's mark next year, he's at 66.4 thru two season. Baker too, who had a solid 63.8 as a rookie.

Maybe Dak benefits from his "see it open" style a little to boost him %. His YPA is lower to which suggests some safer throws. He doesn't cut it loose as much as Deshaun or Mayfield.

Right. I'm not as pessimistic on Dak as most seem to be, but he is what he is. He takes the safer, underneath throws an awful lot, and completes them at a high percentage. Nothing wrong with that when you've got Zeke and the objective is to win the game, not get fantasy stats. It seems as his career goes on, he'll get more comfortable throwing the ball downfield more as QBs tend to do as they mature in the league. To use a cliche, he's a gamer.
 
There should be a new statistic that adjusts comp % for ypa. Efficiency should be weighted based on difficulty level or something like that
 
Agree with Cavs. If you're only asked to throw 20 times per game & they are all 10 yards or less then the % is meaningless.
 
LOL time to see successful handoff %, bet it's incredible

Disagree Carboys and prolly Chiefs although prefer under, GL on the others Capoholic
 
you guys are talking about Daks completion % like that is some great statistic, meanwhile the record for a season is held by Sam Bradford

I’m not sure anyone is acting like it’s a great statistic, but Drew Brees holds the all time record. He broke it in 2017 and then broke that record again this past season.
 
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Agree with Cavs. If you're only asked to throw 20 times per game & they are all 10 yards or less then the % is meaningless.

As I’ve said earlier I’m not a Dak lover by any stretch as I don’t think he’s a great QB by any means...but he threw the ball, on average, 32 times per game this past season. Yep, it surprised me too, just like his completion percentage did.

And again, I don’t think it means too much when he is throwing dump offs or quick first read type throws...but he’s also taking a few more shots downfield than he had in his first 2 seasons, which is what one would expect from a growing QB.
 
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