Divisional Round Prop Bets

If 5dimes allows it, Rams team total at 28 or 27.5 looks very tempting. I think Rams D or specials can score. I believe every time the Rams total was set under 30, it's gone over. When it's been set 30+ it's gone under.
 
wiseplayer said:
If 5dimes allows it, Rams team total at 28 or 27.5 looks very tempting. I think Rams D or specials can score. I believe every time the Rams total was set under 30, it's gone over. When it's been set 30+ it's gone under.
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Why wouldn't they "allow it"?
 
B.A.R. said:
They allow them. They also allow you different numbers at different prices. 28 is readily available at a different vig.
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Currently at 5Dimes it's locked in at 28.5. If they eventually unlock the # to buy off points is what I meant. I noticed they don't always unlock #'s.
 
wiseplayer said:
Currently at 5Dimes it's locked in at 28.5. If they eventually unlock the # to buy off points is what I meant. I noticed they don't always unlock #'s.
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wiseplayer said:
Currently at 5Dimes it's locked in at 28.5. If they eventually unlock the # to buy off points is what I meant. I noticed they don't always unlock #'s.
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Gotcha.

I think that is because they are releasing them so early in the week. They want the numbers to settle and I am sure within 12-24 hours before the game you'll see the drop-down available on all the team totals

:shake:
 
BAR, How doesn't that KC-Colts game not go over especially on a teaser? Very tempted to tease Rams, Colts, Colts over and Chargers. 13pt teaser seems to be golden here.
 
wiseplayer said:
BAR, How doesn't that KC-Colts game not go over especially on a teaser? Very tempted to tease Rams, Colts, Colts over and Chargers. 13pt teaser seems to be golden here.
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Well, the opening number in my mind was a joke at 52.5

My old adage is 'when it seems to easy' it usually isn't... but in today's NFL when you apply that to a total you usually are in for a surprise.

I said this game has 52 points min. If you cannot forsee a 28-24/ 31-21 type of game on the 'LOW END' then I dunno what else to say. I'll hope to catch a shorter number live.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, the opening number in my mind was a joke at 52.5

My old adage is 'when it seems to easy' it usually isn't... but in today's NFL when you apply that to a total you usually are in for a surprise.

I said this game has 52 points min. If you cannot forsee a 28-24/ 31-21 type of game on the 'LOW END' then I dunno what else to say. I'll hope to catch a shorter number live.
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I see Luck controlling this game all game long with the Colts D getting more stops.
 
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Anyone ever play the longest TD prop under? It went 4-0 last week to the under. Feel like it requires good/stable QB and safety play which is common come the playoffs. Good tackling, no wild turnovers, or Tyreek Hill running wild and you gave a decent shot on a roughly -110 line.

Not sure I'll have the stones to play the under longest TD in New Orleans, but a number over 48-50 might entice me.
 
norwesterner said:
Anyone ever play the longest TD prop under? It went 4-0 last week to the under. Feel like it requires good/stable QB and safety play which is common come the playoffs. Good tackling, no wild turnovers, or Tyreek Hill running wild and you gave a decent shot on a roughly -110 line.

Not sure I'll have the stones to play the under longest TD in New Orleans, but a number over 48-50 might entice me.
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I did it once, and won, but it was about the worst possible time one can have watching a game.
 
norwesterner said:
Anyone ever play the longest TD prop under? It went 4-0 last week to the under. Feel like it requires good/stable QB and safety play which is common come the playoffs. Good tackling, no wild turnovers, or Tyreek Hill running wild and you gave a decent shot on a roughly -110 line.

Not sure I'll have the stones to play the under longest TD in New Orleans, but a number over 48-50 might entice me.
Click to expand...

I've been eyeing the 'shortest TD under 1.5 yards' props all year. With the way they hand out PIs these days all it takes is one in the endzone for an easy win. I'm not sure how the math works out but my gut tells me there is value on that type of prop with the right matchup.
 
Hulu said:
I've been eyeing the 'shortest TD under 1.5 yards' props all year. With the way they hand out PIs these days all it takes is one in the endzone for an easy win. I'm not sure how the math works out but my gut tells me there is value on that type of prop with the right matchup.
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I lost the 'shortest TD over 1.5 yards' in the Championship game , because a guy tries to stretch from the 2.5. Ruled a TD, review brings it back to the one.
If memory serves there was never another that close.
Other than a play where the ball was on the one, the offensive line received an offside penalty moving the ball back to the six.

You are correct on the matchup, why I played it in college game, but the edge definitely goes to how you perceive the game to be called. PI's the determining factor.
They tend to be a little more relaxed in the playoffs.
There were 5 PI's called last week. Two in Dal/SEa and Chi/Phil . One in Indy/Hou. The other game had no PI calls. One was declined, so the stats in the bottom link will show 4.
I think we also have to think about defensive holding being categorized for the same in determining the ball being placed at the one.
Where DH is only 5yds in the open field, a 3rd down inside the 5 yd yields plenty of opportunity to hold because of the number of slants /crossing routes.
Just my thoughts.

You can check this sort of thing here.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/week.php?week=18&year=2018&view=penalties
 
pressitup said:
I lost the 'shortest TD over 1.5 yards' in the Championship game , because a guy tries to stretch from the 2.5. Ruled a TD, review brings it back to the one.
If memory serves there was never another that close.
Other than a play where the ball was on the one, the offensive line received an offside penalty moving the ball back to the six.

You are correct on the matchup, why I played it in college game, but the edge definitely goes to how you perceive the game to be called. PI's the determining factor.
They tend to be a little more relaxed in the playoffs.
There were 5 PI's called last week. Two in Dal/SEa and Chi/Phil . One in Indy/Hou. The other game had no PI calls. One was declined, so the stats in the bottom link will show 4.
I think we also have to think about defensive holding being categorized for the same in determining the ball being placed at the one.
Where DH is only 5yds in the open field, a 3rd down inside the 5 yd yields plenty of opportunity to hold because of the number of slants /crossing routes.
Just my thoughts.

You can check this sort of thing here.

http://www.nflpenalties.com/week.php?week=18&year=2018&view=penalties
Click to expand...

Thats a fantastic resource, thanks for that.

You make a couple of excellent points. Defensive holding is another penalty that has seen a big uptick in recent seasons as the NFL tries to re-make the game into a more wide-open style. Also, without digging into the numbers, I think you are correct about officials being more relaxed in the playoffs. I'm not sure whether this is a league directive or just a function of the best officials being picked to work these games but its a noticeable trend.
 
A 4th down conversion in the Eagles/Saints game, -260. Payton, Pederson....looks like free money.
 
Feel like a Kelce over prop might be a good thing. I see 85 yards very juiced and 88.5 readily available.
 
I played Williams over 49.5 and Mack over 80.5 rushing. Seeing these photos on twitter coming in from the stadium makes me believe the snow is going to be a legitimate factor and could slow the passing attacks a bit. Main concern with Mack is if the Colts get into a big hole, but that O-line against the rush D should make plenty of available rushing yards for the taking.
 
Man I think I’m the opposite here. I see it being very easy to throw with pass rushes slowed down to a halt. I think running will be tougher....I played Williams and Mack under on their yardage props both around +120. I think they both have a great shot to get home but have to think at least one gets there.

I also hit Luck over 2.5 TDS for plus money along with full game over 54 and colts 1h over and full game
 
norwesterner said:
Anyone ever play the longest TD prop under? It went 4-0 last week to the under. Feel like it requires good/stable QB and safety play which is common come the playoffs. Good tackling, no wild turnovers, or Tyreek Hill running wild and you gave a decent shot on a roughly -110 line.

Not sure I'll have the stones to play the under longest TD in New Orleans, but a number over 48-50 might entice me.
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2-0 today.

Thank you my friend i tailed these for a nickel each!

Thank you!

This bet is money. Playing it tomorrow as well
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
2-0 today.

Thank you my friend i tailed these for a nickel each!

Thank you!

This bet is money. Playing it tomorrow as well
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Thanks. This time of year is set up for clean football. Feels like it's a 60-70 pct play where we get -110 lines. I don't care if some find it painful. I play prices, not entertainment.

I get close to limit bets with my book on these. Grateful that he takes them.
 
norwesterner said:
Thanks. This time of year is set up for clean football. Feels like it's a 60-70 pct play where we get -110 lines. I don't care if some find it painful. I play prices, not entertainment.

I get close to limit bets with my book on these. Grateful that he takes them.
Click to expand...


I expect pats chargers to go under longest td as well. Cold weather. Etc.
Neither team goes deep either!
 
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