smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Playoffs:
Sides: 2-0 +2.00
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week: 16-9 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week: 17-10 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.
REGULAR SEASON FINAL TALLY: 32-18 ATS
POSTSEASON: 1-1 (both games were +40> Fades)
Wildcard Weekend candidates: MAC of -40>: NONE
Wildcard Weekend FADE candidates: MAC of +40>: NONE (Dallas is +58.5 over L4, but did not cover last week)
This week’s card presents a plethora of betting opportunities IMO. The primary reason being that all 8 teams playing this weekend have shown a level of consistency in their scheme and recent play, which helps reduce the likelihood of random results that spring up during the regular season. If you have been doing your homework all season, you should have a grasp on what each team is about, and be able to confidently weed through the media overload of analysis and coverage, and read between the lines. The time has come to back my opinions using the right betting tools, and letting the games play out. I have some strong opinions this week, but I’m ready to hedge my position with halftime and in-game betting, if what I see on the field is not what I had anticipated. As a handicapper, it really doesn’t get any better than this.
First, here are the ref assignments for this weekend, compliments of Football Zebra:
Ravens at Patriots
Bill Vinovich is the referee, who is in his 9th year and 6th as referee. This is his 6th postseason assignment (2 Wild Card Playoffs, 3 Divisional Playoffs, and 1 Conference Championship).
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 52 Bill Vinovich 10 San Diego accountant, former NFL officiating supervisor
U 49 Rich Hall 11 Hochuli Arizona custom cabinetry
HL 106 Wayne Mackie 8 Steratore Colgate director of operations, housing
LJ 108 Gary Arthur 18 Steratore Wright State president, commercial printing company
FJ 118 David Meslow 4 Blakeman Augsburg College marketing manager
SJ 21 Jeff Lamberth 13 Wrolstad Texas A&M attorney
BJ 112 Tony Steratore 15 Boger California (Pa.) co-owner, supply company
Replay official: Mike Wimmer
Replay assistant: Terry Poulos
Alternates:
Supervisor: Johnny Grier
Panthers at Seahawks
Terry McAulay is the referee, who is in his 17th year and 14th as referee. This is McAulay’s 15th postseason assignment (2 Wild Card Playoffs, 3 Divisional Playoffs, 7 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls XXXIX, XLIII, and last year’s XLVIII. His Super Bowl assignments were all as a referee. In a scheduling quirk, this is the third assignment of McAulay to the Seahawks in their last four playoff games
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 77 Terry McAulay 17 Louisiana State college officiating coordinator
U 96 Undrey Wash 15 Cheffers Texas-Arlington claims controller
HL 74 Derick Bowers 12 Parry East Central sales representative
LJ 9 Mark Perlman 14 Leavy Salem teacher
FJ 25 Bob Waggoner 18 Steratore Juniata College retired probation officer
SJ 73 Joe Larrew 13 Parry St Louis attorney
BJ 111 Terrence Miles 7 Anderson Arizona State quality control manager
Replay official: Earnie Frantz
Replay assistant: Brian Matoren
Alternates: R Craig Wrolstad, LJ Byron Boston, SJ Mike Weatherford
Sunday, Jan. 11
Cowboys at Packers
Gene Steratore is the referee, who is in his 12th year and 9th as referee. This is his 8th postseason assignment, including 2 Wild Card Playoffs, 4 Divisional Playoffs, and 2 Conference Championships.
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 114 Gene Steratore 12 Kent State co-owner, supply company
U 129 Bill Schuster 15 Coleman Alfred insurance broker
HL 8 Dana McKenzie 7 Morelli Toledo claims adjuster
LJ 59 Rusty Baynes 5 Vinovich Auburn-Montgomery general manager, safety services
FJ 43 Terry Brown 9 Boger Tennessee probation supervisor
SJ 97 Tom Hill 16 Allen Carson Newman teacher
BJ 30 Todd Prukop 6 Cheffers Cal State-Fullerton medical sales representative
Replay official: Bill Spyksma
Replay assistant: Terry Sullivan
Alternates: R Jeff Triplette, HL Jim Howey, FJ Dyrol Prioleau
Supervisor:Gary Slaughter
Colts at Broncos
Bill Leavy is the referee. This is his 20th year and 14th as referee. This is Leavy’s 16th postseason assignment, including 4 Wild Card Playoffs, 9 Divisional Playoffs, 1 Conference Championship, and Super Bowls XXXIV and XL. The first Super Bowl was as a back judge, the second was as a referee.
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 127 Bill Leavy 20 San Jose State retired firefighter
U 71 Ruben Fowler 9 Blakeman Huston-Tillotson retired firefighter
HL 48 Jim Mello 11 Allen Northeastern facilities manager
LJ 10 Julian Mapp 6 Parry Grambling State software QA tester
FJ 33 Steve Zimmer 18 Wrolstad Hofstra attorney
SJ 95 James Coleman 10 McAulay Arkansas electrical engineer
BJ 133 Steve Freeman 14 Triplette Mississippi State custom home builder
Replay official: Larry Nemmers
Replay assistant: Bill Tracy
Alternates: R Walt Coleman
Obviously the Terry McAulay / Seattle angle sticks out. McAulay has worked the last two Seattle playoff games:
2/2/14 – Super Bowl: 43-8 W vs DEN
1/19/14 – NFC Champ: 23-17 W vs SF
The thing about it, is that McAulay doesn’t really have any numbers either ATS or O/U that stick out. In addition, the crews in the playoffs are mixed, and McAulay will not have any of his crew members w/ him on Saturday. Still, Seattle’s job is a bit easier, since they are quite familiar with McAulay. It is worth noting that in last year’s Super Bowl, the Seahawks were flagged 10 times for 104 yards.
Offensive Line ratings per PFF of remaining 8 teams:
Situational Trends (League Wide Last 10 years)
Bye teams favored: 15-27 ATS
Playoff underdogs getting TD or more: 26-17 ATS
Baltimore @ New England -7 47.5
BALT:
Top rated pass rush per PFF (+73.6) next highest ranked team was +51.3. On season Balt avg 3.24 sacks/game. League avg 2.39. Over L8, Balt at 4.25 sacks/game (league avg over that span 2.5)
Over L8, Balt has allowed the fewest sack (7) in the NFL, for 0.88 avg/game. League avg is 2.39. On season, Balt was second in the NFL at 1.18 per game.
Over L8, Balt off avg 337.2/game . Only remaining playoff team w/ a lower number is NE (320.6).
L5 Balt Yardage Diff +46. Only playoff team w/ worse Diff is NE at -10.00 (Sea +210, Car +158, GB +132, Den +92)
Sign of caution: L8 games Baltimore has faced the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] easiest schedule. Over L5 they have played the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] easiest schedule, but L5 Baltimore has 4[SUP]th[/SUP] highest RPI.
Baltimore in familiar territory:
Road playoff games w/ Harbaugh/Flacco Combo:
8-4 SU – Next most road wins, by any team during this timeframe is 4.
9-3 ATS – MAC +106
NEW ENGLAND:
Not a good bet in the playoffs recently: Patriots 3-10 ATS last 13 playoff games
Pats very good season, seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle due to WK 16 and WK 17 outputs, and a bye week. Pats +99 MAC best in the league in 2014. If we do not count WK 16 and 17, where the Pats were already in rest mode, the number goes to +120.5
Pats outperformed the closing number by more than 17 pts SEVEN times. No other team did this more than 4 times in 2014.
Pats offense finished 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in Pts/Play and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in Pts/Min Poss.
A lot of stats and talk focuses on the Pats O-line, but consider:
“The Patriots will have their most productive combination healthy and intact for the game against the Ravens. This is the group that displayed all of the keys discussed by Koppen, Brady, Solder and Connolly after coming together in Week 5 against the Bengals. It’s not a coincidence that Brady took off on that Sunday night in early October, nor is it surprising that the Pats ripped off seven straight wins as the unit of Solder, Connolly, rookie Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell and Vollmer gained that familiarity, fine-tuned their communication and made plays. This is the most capable, most together group the Pats have and it gives them the best chance at success.” – Boston Globe
Conclusion:
Game is likely to come down to the ability for Baltimore to pressure Brady, and the ability for Baltimore to move the ball in the air against and underrated NE defense. There are questions regarding both teams ability to score points, as each team features a strength on defense that has the ability to disrupt the others strength on offense. For this reason, I’m siding with the UNDER. My numbers call for a NE victory. One set calls it 24-17 and one calls it 24-20. Thus, I’m playing NE on an open T, as I want to see where the markets go from here.
My play: UNDER 48 (1.25) and 2T Ne -1 and open (2)
Seattle/Carolina opinion to come.
Sides: 2-0 +2.00
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week: 16-9 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week: 17-10 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.
REGULAR SEASON FINAL TALLY: 32-18 ATS
POSTSEASON: 1-1 (both games were +40> Fades)
Wildcard Weekend candidates: MAC of -40>: NONE
Wildcard Weekend FADE candidates: MAC of +40>: NONE (Dallas is +58.5 over L4, but did not cover last week)
This week’s card presents a plethora of betting opportunities IMO. The primary reason being that all 8 teams playing this weekend have shown a level of consistency in their scheme and recent play, which helps reduce the likelihood of random results that spring up during the regular season. If you have been doing your homework all season, you should have a grasp on what each team is about, and be able to confidently weed through the media overload of analysis and coverage, and read between the lines. The time has come to back my opinions using the right betting tools, and letting the games play out. I have some strong opinions this week, but I’m ready to hedge my position with halftime and in-game betting, if what I see on the field is not what I had anticipated. As a handicapper, it really doesn’t get any better than this.
First, here are the ref assignments for this weekend, compliments of Football Zebra:
Ravens at Patriots
Bill Vinovich is the referee, who is in his 9th year and 6th as referee. This is his 6th postseason assignment (2 Wild Card Playoffs, 3 Divisional Playoffs, and 1 Conference Championship).
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 52 Bill Vinovich 10 San Diego accountant, former NFL officiating supervisor
U 49 Rich Hall 11 Hochuli Arizona custom cabinetry
HL 106 Wayne Mackie 8 Steratore Colgate director of operations, housing
LJ 108 Gary Arthur 18 Steratore Wright State president, commercial printing company
FJ 118 David Meslow 4 Blakeman Augsburg College marketing manager
SJ 21 Jeff Lamberth 13 Wrolstad Texas A&M attorney
BJ 112 Tony Steratore 15 Boger California (Pa.) co-owner, supply company
Replay official: Mike Wimmer
Replay assistant: Terry Poulos
Alternates:
Supervisor: Johnny Grier
Panthers at Seahawks
Terry McAulay is the referee, who is in his 17th year and 14th as referee. This is McAulay’s 15th postseason assignment (2 Wild Card Playoffs, 3 Divisional Playoffs, 7 Conference Championships, and Super Bowls XXXIX, XLIII, and last year’s XLVIII. His Super Bowl assignments were all as a referee. In a scheduling quirk, this is the third assignment of McAulay to the Seahawks in their last four playoff games
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 77 Terry McAulay 17 Louisiana State college officiating coordinator
U 96 Undrey Wash 15 Cheffers Texas-Arlington claims controller
HL 74 Derick Bowers 12 Parry East Central sales representative
LJ 9 Mark Perlman 14 Leavy Salem teacher
FJ 25 Bob Waggoner 18 Steratore Juniata College retired probation officer
SJ 73 Joe Larrew 13 Parry St Louis attorney
BJ 111 Terrence Miles 7 Anderson Arizona State quality control manager
Replay official: Earnie Frantz
Replay assistant: Brian Matoren
Alternates: R Craig Wrolstad, LJ Byron Boston, SJ Mike Weatherford
Sunday, Jan. 11
Cowboys at Packers
Gene Steratore is the referee, who is in his 12th year and 9th as referee. This is his 8th postseason assignment, including 2 Wild Card Playoffs, 4 Divisional Playoffs, and 2 Conference Championships.
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 114 Gene Steratore 12 Kent State co-owner, supply company
U 129 Bill Schuster 15 Coleman Alfred insurance broker
HL 8 Dana McKenzie 7 Morelli Toledo claims adjuster
LJ 59 Rusty Baynes 5 Vinovich Auburn-Montgomery general manager, safety services
FJ 43 Terry Brown 9 Boger Tennessee probation supervisor
SJ 97 Tom Hill 16 Allen Carson Newman teacher
BJ 30 Todd Prukop 6 Cheffers Cal State-Fullerton medical sales representative
Replay official: Bill Spyksma
Replay assistant: Terry Sullivan
Alternates: R Jeff Triplette, HL Jim Howey, FJ Dyrol Prioleau
Supervisor:Gary Slaughter
Colts at Broncos
Bill Leavy is the referee. This is his 20th year and 14th as referee. This is Leavy’s 16th postseason assignment, including 4 Wild Card Playoffs, 9 Divisional Playoffs, 1 Conference Championship, and Super Bowls XXXIV and XL. The first Super Bowl was as a back judge, the second was as a referee.
Yrs 2014 crew College Occupation
R 127 Bill Leavy 20 San Jose State retired firefighter
U 71 Ruben Fowler 9 Blakeman Huston-Tillotson retired firefighter
HL 48 Jim Mello 11 Allen Northeastern facilities manager
LJ 10 Julian Mapp 6 Parry Grambling State software QA tester
FJ 33 Steve Zimmer 18 Wrolstad Hofstra attorney
SJ 95 James Coleman 10 McAulay Arkansas electrical engineer
BJ 133 Steve Freeman 14 Triplette Mississippi State custom home builder
Replay official: Larry Nemmers
Replay assistant: Bill Tracy
Alternates: R Walt Coleman
Obviously the Terry McAulay / Seattle angle sticks out. McAulay has worked the last two Seattle playoff games:
2/2/14 – Super Bowl: 43-8 W vs DEN
1/19/14 – NFC Champ: 23-17 W vs SF
The thing about it, is that McAulay doesn’t really have any numbers either ATS or O/U that stick out. In addition, the crews in the playoffs are mixed, and McAulay will not have any of his crew members w/ him on Saturday. Still, Seattle’s job is a bit easier, since they are quite familiar with McAulay. It is worth noting that in last year’s Super Bowl, the Seahawks were flagged 10 times for 104 yards.
Offensive Line ratings per PFF of remaining 8 teams:
- Dallas (1[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL) #1 in run blocking
- Baltimore (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL)
- Green Bay (4[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL) #1 in pass blocking
- Denver (10[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL)
- Colts ( 17[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL)
- Seahawks (19[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL) 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pass blocking, and no member of O-line finished season w/ + rating.
- Carolina (22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in NFL) – Severe issues on left side.
- New England (23[SUP]rd[/SUP] in NFL) 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in pass protection.
Situational Trends (League Wide Last 10 years)
Bye teams favored: 15-27 ATS
Playoff underdogs getting TD or more: 26-17 ATS
Baltimore @ New England -7 47.5
BALT:
Top rated pass rush per PFF (+73.6) next highest ranked team was +51.3. On season Balt avg 3.24 sacks/game. League avg 2.39. Over L8, Balt at 4.25 sacks/game (league avg over that span 2.5)
Over L8, Balt has allowed the fewest sack (7) in the NFL, for 0.88 avg/game. League avg is 2.39. On season, Balt was second in the NFL at 1.18 per game.
Over L8, Balt off avg 337.2/game . Only remaining playoff team w/ a lower number is NE (320.6).
L5 Balt Yardage Diff +46. Only playoff team w/ worse Diff is NE at -10.00 (Sea +210, Car +158, GB +132, Den +92)
Sign of caution: L8 games Baltimore has faced the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] easiest schedule. Over L5 they have played the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] easiest schedule, but L5 Baltimore has 4[SUP]th[/SUP] highest RPI.
Baltimore in familiar territory:
Road playoff games w/ Harbaugh/Flacco Combo:
8-4 SU – Next most road wins, by any team during this timeframe is 4.
9-3 ATS – MAC +106
NEW ENGLAND:
Not a good bet in the playoffs recently: Patriots 3-10 ATS last 13 playoff games
Pats very good season, seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle due to WK 16 and WK 17 outputs, and a bye week. Pats +99 MAC best in the league in 2014. If we do not count WK 16 and 17, where the Pats were already in rest mode, the number goes to +120.5
Pats outperformed the closing number by more than 17 pts SEVEN times. No other team did this more than 4 times in 2014.
Pats offense finished 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in Pts/Play and 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in Pts/Min Poss.
A lot of stats and talk focuses on the Pats O-line, but consider:
“The Patriots will have their most productive combination healthy and intact for the game against the Ravens. This is the group that displayed all of the keys discussed by Koppen, Brady, Solder and Connolly after coming together in Week 5 against the Bengals. It’s not a coincidence that Brady took off on that Sunday night in early October, nor is it surprising that the Pats ripped off seven straight wins as the unit of Solder, Connolly, rookie Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell and Vollmer gained that familiarity, fine-tuned their communication and made plays. This is the most capable, most together group the Pats have and it gives them the best chance at success.” – Boston Globe
Conclusion:
Game is likely to come down to the ability for Baltimore to pressure Brady, and the ability for Baltimore to move the ball in the air against and underrated NE defense. There are questions regarding both teams ability to score points, as each team features a strength on defense that has the ability to disrupt the others strength on offense. For this reason, I’m siding with the UNDER. My numbers call for a NE victory. One set calls it 24-17 and one calls it 24-20. Thus, I’m playing NE on an open T, as I want to see where the markets go from here.
My play: UNDER 48 (1.25) and 2T Ne -1 and open (2)
Seattle/Carolina opinion to come.
