Discussion - Wednesday Games (Buffalo at Ohio & N. Illinois at Ball State)

[Fondybadger]

What do you like and why?

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]8:00 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]105 Buffalo U
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]55.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]56u11 / 55.5u11 / 55[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]54.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+155[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]106 OHIO
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-3 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-4 / -4 -15 / -4.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-4 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-180[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208 | CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SHOWERS. SOUTH WIND 3-8. GAME TEMP 55, RH 83%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals
Buffalo 25
Ohio 29

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]8:00 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]107 NORTHERN ILLINOIS[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-3 -11[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-3 / -3.5 / -3.5 -07[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-3.5 -05[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-170[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]108 BALL STATE[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]60 / 63
[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]62.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+145[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]NIL-WR-Tommylee Lewis-OUT | TV: ESPN2, DTV: 209 | PARTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 52, RH 68%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals
Northern Illinois 33
Ball State 30

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Routine anoche... onto tonight's MACtion...

Ball State has lost five in a row to the Huskies, with the unbeaten and 16th-ranked Cards flattening Northern 45-14 in 2008. Since then, a combination of Brady Hoke's departure and Stan Parrish's arrival in Muncie, coinciding with Huskie QB's Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch running roughshod over virtually everyone in the MAC, has led to Northern Illinois winning the Bronze Stalk annually since then.


NIU's defense ranks among the 10 worst in the country by some advanced metrics, despite it being deep and a bit more aggressive than in 2013. With Jack Milas improving seemingly by the quarter since finally wresting the QB job from Ozzie Mann last month. He's yet to throw an interception. Meanwhile, Jahwan Edwards is healthy now and should have his way with the Huskie defense, which has struggled against the run. Horatio Banks can certainly contribute when Edwards needs a breather; he's the top backup in the league. Central Michigan running back Thomas Rawls ran for 270 yards against Northern on Oct. 11. Last week, Eastern Michigan ran for 257 yards against the Huskies.


The Huskies have been strong up front on offense, and that could be a concern if they can sustain some long drives and keep Milas, Edwards & Co. off the field. NIU runs for 269 yards per game, which leads the league, and have allowed just five sacks all season (tied for third in the nation). NIU also has just five turnovers, which is tied for tops in I-A football.


That said, the Cardinal defense is finally showing signs of a Lembo 'D'. There were some early season struggles, which weren't at all unexpected when losing classy D-coordinator Jay Bateman to Army in the offseason. The Nads have forced 10 turnovers in their last two games, both wins against a 4-2 Central Michigan team that is bowl eligible and an Akron team that was in contention for a MAC East crown before last night's loss to the Beegees.


Ball U is fifth in the nation in turnover margin, which has largely camoflauged a lot of their woes while playing with a scattershot QB for the first six weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Huskies have only forced seven turnovers all season.


Finally, with the line being around a field goal, the kicking game could matter. In that department, the Nadders have a huge edge. Scott Secor is 21-of-26 on field goals this season, while Northern's Tyler Wedel is just 8-for-15. I don't think it will come down to a field goal, but if it does, we know the hosts have the edge.

Prediction: Ball State 31, Northern 23

The play: Nadders +3.5 medium to big 2.5u.

No opinion on OU and Barfalo; I made Ohio U 4.

GL!

 

[twinkie13]

crickets

 

[Fondybadger]

crickets

I woke up with a massive hangover. Posted this thread and went back to sleep. I'll have some of my own thoughts shortly.

 

[texsn95]

Damn that was some awful Mac-trashball last night. Here's to a few more TDs tonight :cheers3:

 

[Fondybadger]

Buffalo hasn't won on the road this season (0-3), losing @Army by 8, @Bowling Green by 1, and @E. Michigan by 10. Most recently they lost at home to Central Michigan by 6. Bowling Green, E. Michigan, and C. Michigan have been their last three games and all losses. Buffalo has also been blown out by Baylor and have two wins against (Norfolk St and an 8 point win against Miami, OH). Buffalo has already fired their coach and lost under interim coach against Central Michigan.

Ohio is 0-4 on the road, but 3-1 at home. They beat Idaho by 12, E. Illinois by 15, Akron by 3, and lost to Bowling Green by 18. Ohio is averaging only 19 points per game which makes it tough to back as a 4.5pt favorite (which they now are). They're also giving up 26.9 points per game and also over 25 points in three of their last four.

Buffalo is averaging 30.6 points per game (giving up 33.1). Buffalo has scored over 25 points in five of seven games this year with the two exceptions being last time out under their new interim coach (they got 14) and against Baylor (they got 21).

I'd go more but I want to see how interim coach Alex Wood runs the Buffalo team first (note he has been the offensive coordinator for last few seasons so it shouldn't be that different).

Wager
$200 Buffalo O25 -110
$60 Buffalo 1H O12.5 -115

*Alternative suggestion is U29 Ohio U; however, in Buffalo's three road games they've allowed 47, 36, and 37 points (Army, Bowling Green, E. Mich).

 

[Fondybadger]

I don't know if I agree with Rexy in that Ball St will upset Northern Illinois today. While Ball St has caused ten turnovers in the last two games, N. Illinois has only turned the ball over five times all season. Also, in Ball State's last two games where they've had the 10-1 turnover margin they still gave up a combined 50 points in those two games (while scoring 67). The previous three games to the 10 turnovers and 50 points they had a combined five turnovers and gave up 34, 33, and 42 points. Not really a defense I would trust to make stops when I needed them to.

The difference maker in this game for an ATS bet will be Ball St QB Jack Milas. Since he took over as QB three games ago he's thrown for 749 yards, 5 TDs, and no interceptions. If he can keep up with how he's played so far I think Ball St wins outright, otherwise it may be a bit of a struggle (have a bad feeling about a critical turnover or two in this game leading to Northern Illinois points). As Rexy said Jahwan Edwards at RB should get his yards and a few TDs against a bad N. Illinois defense.

I feel that this game won't have a ton of punts. Wind is predicted at 5-7mph and I don't see rain in the forecast.

Wagers
$150 Northern Illinois/Ball St O62 -110
$125 Ball State O29.5 -110
$50 Northern Illinois/Ball St 1H O31 -110
Lean Ball St ML +140

 

[YoungGun11]

I woke up with a massive hangover.

Sure wish I could be hung on a Wednesday.... :recliner: