Discussion - Thursday KState vs WV & UNC vs Duke & Arky St vs Texas St

Fondybadger

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
What do you like and why?

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]7:00 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]111 KANSAS STATE
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]58[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]58 / 57 / 57.5[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]58[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+120[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]112 WEST VIRGINIA
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-1 -15[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-2 / -2 -07 / -2 -05[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-2.5 -15[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-140[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: FS-1, DTV: 219 | PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE SNOW FLURRIES. WEST WIND 10-15. GAME TEMP 26, RH 66% WIND CHILL 15
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals
Kansas State 28
West Virginia 30

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]7:30 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]113 NORTH CAROLINA[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]66.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]66.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+197[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]114 DUKE[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-6.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-6.5 -08 / -6.5 -05 / -6.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-6 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-225[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: ESPN, DTV: 206 | CLEAR, NORTHWEST WIND 5-10. GAME TEMP 43, RH 49% WIND CHILL 38
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals
North Carolina 30
Duke 36

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]9:30 PM EST
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]115 ARKANSAS STATE
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-6.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-5 / -6 / -6 -05[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-5.5 [/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-235[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]116 Texas State
[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]58[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]56 / 58.5o13 / 59[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]58.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+195[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: score"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208 | MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WIND 6-11. GAME TEMP 61, RH 80%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Team Totals
Arky St 31.5
Texas st 26

 
On WVU -2, I liked Tx St. at 6 but I missed that. Lean NC but family went to Duke so gotta lay off that one.
 
ksimpsc said:
On WVU -2, I liked Tx St. at 6 but I missed that. Lean NC but family went to Duke so gotta lay off that one.
Click to expand...

West Virginia jumps out at me as well. I really like hitting Duke each week but not as a 6 point favorite and a team total over 36.
 
Fondybadger said:
West Virginia jumps out at me as well. I really like hitting Duke each week but not as a 6 point favorite and a team total over 36.
Click to expand...

If Boone were a better QB this year I'd be all over the team total of 36 going over. But UNC's defense still gives this a decent shot of going over especially if UNC continues to put up points which I imagine they will.
 
Carolina Guy said:
If Boone were a better QB this year I'd be all over the team total of 36 going over. But UNC's defense still gives this a decent shot of going over especially if UNC continues to put up points which I imagine they will.
Click to expand...
UNC defense is swiss cheese but the offense can get it done. I like Duke strong D compared to UNC but their O will put some points up I feel.
 
$0.02 on Texas State. They're 20 minutes down the road from us in Austin. Big game for them tonight - win, and they'll go 7-5 on the year (gimme next weekend against Ga State), so they'll possibly go bowling for first time in their short FBS history.

Problem with Texas State is that they've wet the bed pretty badly in "big" / nationally televised games at home under Fran - last year vs. TTU, this year vs Navy, same vs. LaLa. Now they lost to better teams in these games, problem is they were just comatose in them and didn't show up at all and got rolled. Bad case of stage fright or otherwise. We'll see if they turn it around tonight as a dog again with a lot on the line. I'll stay away from the game, just watching.
 
ksimpsc said:
UNC defense is swiss cheese but the offense can get it done. I like Duke strong D compared to UNC but their O will put some points up I feel.
Click to expand...

Your post is extremely accurate minus Duke's strong d. They're awful against the run and just ok, if that, against the pass. A combination of a wonderful schedule and a bend but don't break in the red zone has contributed to what appears to be a "strong" Defesne in your eyes.
 
Common Opponents YPP
Miami - Duke gives up 5.7, UNC gives up 7.3
GT - Duke gives up 6.7, UNC gives up 8.9
UVA - Duke gives up 6.0, UNC gives up 5.3
Pitt - Duke gives up 6.7, UNC gives up 7.6
VT - Duke gives up 4.0, UNC gives up 4.2

Offensive YPP vs Common Opponents
Miami - Duke gains 3.5, UNC gains 3.7
GT - Duke gains 5.1, UNC gains 6.6
UVA - Duke gains 4.9, UNC gains 5.9
Pitt - Duke gains 7.6, UNC gains 6.0
VT - Duke gains 4.0, UNC gains 4.9

Pretty clear that Duke has the superior defense in this game and UNC has the superior offense. Duke's defense is typically good at clamping down in the RZ and finding ways to not give up points...that last statement is just from watching their games. I did not research their RZ defense or creation of turnovers. Both schools are pretty apathetic when it comes to football, especially now that basketball season has started. I don't think a Thursday night game will make a ton of difference but it won't be a huge HFA for Duke. Duke has won the last 2 over the Heels. I thought this would be somewhere around 4ish so I might bite on the Heels
 
Carolina Guy said:
Schrute,

Just asking here. Are you posting to post or posting bc of what I posted last?
Click to expand...


I looked it up because of what you posted. It made me curious and I thought the only fair way to compare was YPP against common opponents. It's not perfect but it's the best comparison. I had no idea what I would find. I found out that Duke's defense is about what I thought and that UNC's defense is somehow worse than I thought. I also found out that Duke's offense is worse than I thought it would be and UNC's offense is about where I thought it would be. I think the line is slightly too high but within reason. Trying to figure out if I'm gonna take the points or just go ML. I could see UNC winning but I could certainly see them not really showing up and UNC rolling which is why I think there may be more value on the ML. With the UNC defense, I wonder if getting 6.5 is really that much better than getting 4
 
Yea, this game will go the way of UNC QB Marquise Williams. He continues to play the way he has and carry's this team in his back, Heels win. He comes out and craps the bed with his erratic passing and can't run the football himself and Duke wins. I believe there is value on both the points and ML, but my bias could be creeping in. No question UNC defense blows, but Duke QB, Boone, is not and has not played consistently well all season. UNC d could be his elixir?
 
Carolina Guy said:
Yea, this game will go the way of UNC QB Marquise Williams. He continues to play the way he has and carry's this team in his back, Heels win. He comes out and craps the bed with his erratic passing and can't run the football himself and Duke wins. I believe there is value on both the points and ML, but my bias could be creeping in. No question UNC defense blows, but Duke QB, Boone, is not and has not played consistently well all season. UNC d could be his elixir?
Click to expand...

Those are pretty much my thoughts as well
 
And let's not forget Duke is playing for a birth in the ACC Championship game. Lot to be said about that. Heels playing for a shitty bowl.
 
Copy and Paste from another site -- for those of you who know SunBelter, know he is solid


Texas St +6.5 3 Units

This is a really bad spot for ASU here, having to travel on a short week, coming off a bad loss. What this team has accomplished in the last 4 years is unprecedented in college football. They have endured 5 coaches in 5 years, yet continued to win against all odds. Unfortunatly, it was inevitable that all the short season recruiting classes would have to eventually catch up, and I believe that time is now. They came into the season very thin at several positions, and have been forced to use more freshmen then just about anyone in the country. They have now suffered 8 season ending injuries, with most coming on defense. Saturday they lost their leading pass rusher, another DL'man, and their #1 kick returner for the season. They were statistically dominated at home by Appy State, the 37-32 final is very misleading. ASU scored once on a punt return, once set up by a long punt return, and twice in the last 2 minutes to make the score look close. App State dominated both sides of the ball, on total offense, and time of possession. ASU's leading tackler was a walk on, who had barely played going into Saturday. Leading rusher Michael Gordon also left the game with an undisclosed injury in the 3rd quarter, and his status hasnt been updated this week. Leading WR McKissic has also missed the last 2 weeks with an ankle injury, and is questionable tomorrow also, and will be less then 100% even if he plays. They have also struggled horribly in the FG kicking dept, having missed 6 XP's, and about half of their FG attempts. Im not a huge Texas St fan, but I think this is a great spot for an upset here.
 
I think K-State responds nicely here off the blowout loss and bye week. The offenses that have hurt us badly in the past are spread teams with a QB that can run.
 
Last edited:
Kansas St lost to a terrible Auburn team, while W. Virginia hung tough with an incredible Alabama team, right Carolina Guy? :cigarguy:
 
It would be great if Duke lost than GT would face FSU in ACC championship. These schools dislike each other. It would mean a great deal for a shitty UNC season to knock off Duke from going to Championship. That is motivation IMO. Line really hasnt moved and you have to assume Duke to be played by most. It keeps me cautiously optimistic. Of course like the over too. Perfect night for football fireworks fellas
 
i can't get over the fact WV gives up 181 on the ground tha should set up the passing game for Kstate all night. Any thoughts??
 
There will be little to no homefield advantage for Duke. I went to the Virginia Tech/Duke game last Saturday and planned to buy two tickets, but some Duke alum was standing at the gate giving tickets away. I would guess that the stadium seats a little over 30,000 people. The stadium was probably 70% filled with about 40/60 Tech to Duke fans. It looks like a high school stadium with the track around it. They made an announcement during the game that the parking lots for tonights game will not open until 5:30, FWIW.
 
jimmymo said:
Copy and Paste from another site -- for those of you who know SunBelter, know he is solid


Texas St +6.5 3 Units

This is a really bad spot for ASU here, having to travel on a short week, coming off a bad loss. What this team has accomplished in the last 4 years is unprecedented in college football. They have endured 5 coaches in 5 years, yet continued to win against all odds. Unfortunatly, it was inevitable that all the short season recruiting classes would have to eventually catch up, and I believe that time is now. They came into the season very thin at several positions, and have been forced to use more freshmen then just about anyone in the country. They have now suffered 8 season ending injuries, with most coming on defense. Saturday they lost their leading pass rusher, another DL'man, and their #1 kick returner for the season. They were statistically dominated at home by Appy State, the 37-32 final is very misleading. ASU scored once on a punt return, once set up by a long punt return, and twice in the last 2 minutes to make the score look close. App State dominated both sides of the ball, on total offense, and time of possession. ASU's leading tackler was a walk on, who had barely played going into Saturday. Leading rusher Michael Gordon also left the game with an undisclosed injury in the 3rd quarter, and his status hasnt been updated this week. Leading WR McKissic has also missed the last 2 weeks with an ankle injury, and is questionable tomorrow also, and will be less then 100% even if he plays. They have also struggled horribly in the FG kicking dept, having missed 6 XP's, and about half of their FG attempts. Im not a huge Texas St fan, but I think this is a great spot for an upset here.
Click to expand...

Yes I know him well he also likes the Over TT 24.5 for 1 Unit,which is now last I looked 26.5. One of the best and a gentleman
 
He Hate Me said:
There will be little to no homefield advantage for Duke. I went to the Virginia Tech/Duke game last Saturday and planned to buy two tickets, but some Duke alum was standing at the gate giving tickets away. I would guess that the stadium seats a little over 30,000 people. The stadium was probably 70% filled with about 40/60 Tech to Duke fans. It looks like a high school stadium with the track around it. They made an announcement during the game that the parking lots for tonights game will not open until 5:30, FWIW.
Click to expand...


Fun fact for ya, he hate me: Wallace Wade High School Stadium once hosted the Rose Bowl. No shit.
 
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