Did Dr Bob release his bowl games yet??
- Thread starter vanzack
- Start date
Van,
I am kind of mixed up in my days. I know he releases Oregon and ASU either Monday or yesterday. I was quite happy he did as well. Loved the other side in both and he helped me out with my prices.
I also read that they would be released here and there over next week or so.
GL this Bowl season and Happy Holidays.
I am kind of mixed up in my days. I know he releases Oregon and ASU either Monday or yesterday. I was quite happy he did as well. Loved the other side in both and he helped me out with my prices.
I also read that they would be released here and there over next week or so.
GL this Bowl season and Happy Holidays.
TroyStacks
18" Pythons
yeah thanks dr.bob you no talent assclown.....i would love to challenge one of these cappers in a contest for a couple g's.
FirstTimeCrapper
New Member
Van - if you're still looking for them:
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, December 21
***Oregon (+3 ½) 31 Byu 27
BYU was a very impressive 10-2 straight up and 9-2-1 ATS this season with their only losses coming on a last second field goal at Arizona in and overtime at Boston College. The Cougars are certainly a good team, but they are not much better than an Oregon team that is likely to rebound from a 3 game losing streak that ended their regular season. In fact, neutral site bowl underdogs of more than 3 points are 27-10-1 ATS if they lost their last 2 or more regular season games (8-1 ATS off 3 losses), including 22-4-1 ATS in pre-New Year’s bowl games. If Oregon goes back to their mid-season form then they’ll win this game handily. The Ducks averaged 5.9 yards per play this season against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack. Backup quarterback Brady Leaf starting splitting time with starter Dennis Dixon late in the season, which actually hurt the offense some, and they are expected to share time at quarterback in this game. The offense is only 0.7 yppl better than average with Leaf getting half the snaps, but Leaf also throws fewer interceptions, which makes up for some of that lost value. BYU is a mediocre defensive team that allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl, so the Ducks spread offense should have good success in this game just as Utah’s spread offense did in the BYU’s regular season finale (a 33-31 win in which Utah gained 474 yards at 6.5 yppl). BYU’s attack is among the best in the nation, averaging 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and quarterback John Beck should have been a 2nd or 3rd Team All-American this year after averaging 8.9 yards per pass play and throwing 30 TD passes against just 6 interceptions. The BYU attack was slowed somewhat by good defensive teams Arizona, Boston College and TCU and Beck will have his toughest challenge to date in this game against an Oregon defense that has allowed only 4.8 yppp to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense. Beck should still post pretty good numbers, but not nearly as good as he normally does. This match- up is very close on a yards per play basis and my math model favors BYU by just 2 points. However, Oregon is likely to play at their mid-season level after rededicating themselves in bowl practices. Pac-10 teams are also undervalued over the years and Pac- 10 underdogs are 177-119-3 against non-conference opponents since 1980, including 29-14 ATS in bowl games (15-2 ATS since 1997). What we have here is a Pac-10 bowl underdog with superior talent and motivation against a BYU team that applies to a negative 16-47 ATS bowl situation if they remain favored by 3 points or more. I’ll take Oregon in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points. I have no opinion on the total.
Sunday, December 24
***Arizona State (+8) 32 HAWAII 31
Arizona State had a disappointing season and is being coached by Dirk Koetter, who has been fired. Teams playing for a lame duck coach have usually been pretty good plays in bowl games and I’m sure the Sun Devils would like to send their coach out with a good effort while also trying to impress their new coach Dennis Erickson, who will be watching. The Sun Devils certainly have the defensive personnel to slow down Hawaii’s explosive offense and the offense should have no problem moving the ball against Hawaii’s porous defense. Hawaii’s Colt Brennan had an incredible season and his stats were not just a reflection of the low level of opposing defenses that he faced. Brennan and the Warriors’ offense moved the ball with good success even against good defensive teams, scoring 32 points and averaging 6.4 yards per play (both season lows) against a very good Oregon State defense in their regular season finale. Arizona State’s defense is actually comparable to the Beavers’ stop unit, as the Sun Devils, except that they are even better defending the pass. ASU allowed only 5.3 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average team. The Sun Devils were especially good defensively in the second half of the season, holding USC’s John David Booty (1st Team All-Pac 10) to 5.5 yppp and Washington State’s Alex Brink (2nd Team All-Pac 10) to just 4.3 yppp. Hawaii averaged an incredible 8.7 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.9 yppp to an average team and my math model projects the Warriors with 7.2 yppl and 32 points in this game, and Hawaii was held to 34 points by Boise State and 32 points by Oregon State – the two other good defensive teams that they have faced this season. Hawaii’s defense allowed a respectable 5.7 yppl this season but they did so against teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average team. Arizona State was inconsistent offensively and not as good from game 3 on without big play receiver Rudy Burgess, who was injured in that game and then moved to the defensive side of the ball. From game 3 on the Sun Devils averaged only 5.3 yppl but they did so against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team, so they were still better than average with a strong rushing attack (5.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.3 yprp) and modest passing numbers (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp). Hawaii faced only 5 teams that are average or better offensively this season and the Warriors allowed an average of 6.7 yppl and 33 points to those teams (Alabama, Boise State, New Mexico State, Purdue, and Oregon State), who would combine to rate at 0.3 yppl better than average – a bit worse than ASU’s offensive rating of +0.4 yppl. Hawaii hasn’t won and covered against any of the 4 best teams that they faced this season, losing to Alabama and Boise State and failing to cover as favorites against Purdue and Oregon State and they aren’t likely to cover the big number in this game either. My math model favors Hawaii by just 1 point at home and the Warriors apply to a negative 4-22-3 ATS big bowl favorite situation. Home teams favored by 7 points or more in a bowl game are just 3-7 ATS, including 0-2 for Hawaii, so if you thought Hawaii was a good play because they’re playing at home you should think again. The Pac-10 has been the most underrated major conference for years, as evidenced by the 177-119-3 ATS record of Pac-10 teams as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980, including 15-2 ATS in bowl games since 1997. I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +7.
Friday, December 29
**Houston (+6 ½) 31 South Carolina 30
Both of these teams are better now than they were earlier in the season and the offensive units should control this game against a pair of mediocre defensive teams. With that being the case, I certainly don’t mind taking the points with a Houston team that is led by a 4 year starting quarterback in Kevin Kolb that rarely makes mistakes (just 3 interceptions all season). Kolb had another fantastic season and averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) to go along with his incredible TD to interception ratio of 27 to 3. Houston’s offense got better in mid-season when speedy receiver Anthony Alridge was converted to running back to share duties with bulldozing back Jackie Battle (858 yards at 5.0 ypr). Alridge broke big runs in practically every game he played at running back and finished the season with 904 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr, including averages of 112 yards at 10.2 ypr in 6 games at running back. Houston’s offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Alridge sharing running duties with Battle. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre South Carolina defense that has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. The 3 best offensive teams that South Carolina faced were Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, each of whom the Gamecocks played in the final 4 weeks of the season. Those 3 teams combine to rate at 1.1 yppl better than average offensive (the same as Houston) and they combined to average 7.2 yppl against South Carolina – so the Gamecocks played even worse than normal defensively against really good offensive teams like Houston. South Carolina was competitive in those games because their offense was playing better than ever with Blake Mitchell back at quarterback after Syvelle Newton was moved to defensive safety. Mitchell ended the season averaging a robust 8.0 yppp despite facing defenses that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. With Mitchell at quarterback the Gamecocks rate at 1.6 yppl better than average offensively. Houston’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average using every game, but their top defensive player, S Will Gulley missed most of two games early in the season and the Cougars rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively with Gulley healthy. South Carolina has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage and a significant edge in special teams, but Houston has an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 5 ½ points overall (with a total of 62 points). The reason for the play on Houston is a number of bowl situations that favor the Cougars, including an 82-43-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator applying to Houston and a negative 13-41 ATS situation that applies to South Carolina. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more and I’ll lean Over 58 points or less.
Saturday, December 30
****Iowa (+10) 25 Texas 24
Iowa was perhaps the nation’s most disappointing team, finishing the season with 5 losses in their last 6 games while going 6-6 straight up and 1-10 ATS for the season. The Hawkeyes were hurt by injuries to key defensive players DE Iwebema (a 2005 1st team All-Big 10 selection who missed 5 games), S Paschal (missed 2 ½ games) and top CB Shada, who missed 4 ½ games and still nearly led the team in passes defended. Iowa’s defense went from very good to below average down the stretch without both Iwebema and Shada, but Shada is probable for this game and Iwebema may return too. In 6 games with both Paschal and Shada in the defensive backfield the Hawkeyes were 1.1 yards per pass play better than average, compared to 0.6 yppp worse than average in 6 games when one or both were out. Both Paschal and Shada will play in this game, but I’ll assume Iwebema will still be out until I hear differently. The Hawkeyes’ run defense isn’t quite as good without Iwebema and the pass rush isn’t as good either (worth almost 0.2 yppp), but I still rate the Hawkeyes’ defense at 0.7 yards per play better than average for this game. Texas quarterback Colt McCoy looks like he’s fully recovered from his shoulder injury and the Longhorns are 0.7 yppl better than average with McCoy at quarterback – so the battle between the Texas offense and Iowa’s now healthier defense is a draw. Iowa has an advantage when they have the ball, as the Hawkeyes are 0.6 yppl better than average offensively with Drew Tate at quarterback (he missed two games) while Texas was only 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team (the Longhorns also had a few players miss some games, but they were still 0.4 yppl better than average with all their starters playing). Texas will stop the run, as they always do, but their mediocre pass defense (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team) will be exploited by a Drew Tate, who was banged up much of the season and still rated at 0.7 yppp better than average). My math model projects the yardage to be very close in this game, but favors Texas by 5 points on the basis of strong special teams and few projected turnovers. Teams that under-achieve during the regular season usually play better in their bowl game and Iowa applies to a 46-14-3 ATS bowl situation. I did not add any home field advantage for Texas, but playing in San Antonio could be worth a couple of points (although I count it as a neutral field). Of course, I think it will be tough for the Longhorns to get excited about playing in a minor bowl game against a .500 opponent the year after winning the National Championship. Iowa, meanwhile, will use the game as redemption for a poor season and I’ll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more, for 3-Stars from +7 ½ to +9 ½ and for 2-Stars at +7 points.
Monday, January 1
****West Virginia (-7) 35 Georgia Tech 14
What kind of line is West Virginia by 7? Is that West Virginia’s backups against Georgia Tech’s starters? The Yellow Jackets are a mediocre team and West Virginia is one of the top teams in the nation. This game shouldn’t be close if West Virginia plays anywhere close to their normal level – and I have no reason to believe that they won’t. Mountaineers’ quarterback Pat White will be healthy after a more than a month off since last playing (he sat out their overtime win against Rutgers with a couple of nagging injuries) and White and running back Steve Slaton will be too much for a good, but not great Georgia Tech defense. Slaton ran for 1733 yards at 7.1 ypr and White 1128 yards at 8.6 yards per rushing play (not including sacks). White also had a good season throwing the football (8.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and West Virginia’s attack rates at 2.1 yards per play better than average, which gives them a huge advantage over a Georgia Tech stop unit that allowed 4.5 yppl this season and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average. Georgia Tech played a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams and they faced just one team with the speed and rushing attack that comes close to comparing to West Virginia. That opponent was Clemson and the Tigers racked up 332 rushing yards at 9.0 yards per rushing play while racking up 7.9 yppl and 31 points. My math model forecasts 35 points on 431 yards at 6.6 yppl for West Virginia in this game, which is well below the Mounties’ season average of 7.5 yppl with White starting at quarterback. That will be more than enough to beat a Georgia Tech team with a horrible offense that averaged just 5.0 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The Yellow Jackets have a 1st Team All-American WR in Calvin Johnson but quarterback Reggie Ball still completed only 44% of this passes for 5.1 yards per pass play. West Virginia has been susceptible to good pass attacks this season, but they are still a bit better than average against the pass overall and are very tough to run against (3.7 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp). Overall, West Virginia is 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and they have a 0.8 yppl advantage over Georgia Tech’s offense (to go along with the Mounties’ 1.2 yppl advantage when they have the ball). West Virginia also has an advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Mountaineers by 21 ½ points in this game and gives them a 67% chance of covering at -7 points. I’ll take West Virginia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3- Stars from -8 ½ to -10 points and for 2-Stars at more than -10 points.
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, December 21
***Oregon (+3 ½) 31 Byu 27
BYU was a very impressive 10-2 straight up and 9-2-1 ATS this season with their only losses coming on a last second field goal at Arizona in and overtime at Boston College. The Cougars are certainly a good team, but they are not much better than an Oregon team that is likely to rebound from a 3 game losing streak that ended their regular season. In fact, neutral site bowl underdogs of more than 3 points are 27-10-1 ATS if they lost their last 2 or more regular season games (8-1 ATS off 3 losses), including 22-4-1 ATS in pre-New Year’s bowl games. If Oregon goes back to their mid-season form then they’ll win this game handily. The Ducks averaged 5.9 yards per play this season against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average attack. Backup quarterback Brady Leaf starting splitting time with starter Dennis Dixon late in the season, which actually hurt the offense some, and they are expected to share time at quarterback in this game. The offense is only 0.7 yppl better than average with Leaf getting half the snaps, but Leaf also throws fewer interceptions, which makes up for some of that lost value. BYU is a mediocre defensive team that allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl, so the Ducks spread offense should have good success in this game just as Utah’s spread offense did in the BYU’s regular season finale (a 33-31 win in which Utah gained 474 yards at 6.5 yppl). BYU’s attack is among the best in the nation, averaging 6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and quarterback John Beck should have been a 2nd or 3rd Team All-American this year after averaging 8.9 yards per pass play and throwing 30 TD passes against just 6 interceptions. The BYU attack was slowed somewhat by good defensive teams Arizona, Boston College and TCU and Beck will have his toughest challenge to date in this game against an Oregon defense that has allowed only 4.8 yppp to teams that would combine to average 6.6 yppp against an average defense. Beck should still post pretty good numbers, but not nearly as good as he normally does. This match- up is very close on a yards per play basis and my math model favors BYU by just 2 points. However, Oregon is likely to play at their mid-season level after rededicating themselves in bowl practices. Pac-10 teams are also undervalued over the years and Pac- 10 underdogs are 177-119-3 against non-conference opponents since 1980, including 29-14 ATS in bowl games (15-2 ATS since 1997). What we have here is a Pac-10 bowl underdog with superior talent and motivation against a BYU team that applies to a negative 16-47 ATS bowl situation if they remain favored by 3 points or more. I’ll take Oregon in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points. I have no opinion on the total.
Sunday, December 24
***Arizona State (+8) 32 HAWAII 31
Arizona State had a disappointing season and is being coached by Dirk Koetter, who has been fired. Teams playing for a lame duck coach have usually been pretty good plays in bowl games and I’m sure the Sun Devils would like to send their coach out with a good effort while also trying to impress their new coach Dennis Erickson, who will be watching. The Sun Devils certainly have the defensive personnel to slow down Hawaii’s explosive offense and the offense should have no problem moving the ball against Hawaii’s porous defense. Hawaii’s Colt Brennan had an incredible season and his stats were not just a reflection of the low level of opposing defenses that he faced. Brennan and the Warriors’ offense moved the ball with good success even against good defensive teams, scoring 32 points and averaging 6.4 yards per play (both season lows) against a very good Oregon State defense in their regular season finale. Arizona State’s defense is actually comparable to the Beavers’ stop unit, as the Sun Devils, except that they are even better defending the pass. ASU allowed only 5.3 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average team. The Sun Devils were especially good defensively in the second half of the season, holding USC’s John David Booty (1st Team All-Pac 10) to 5.5 yppp and Washington State’s Alex Brink (2nd Team All-Pac 10) to just 4.3 yppp. Hawaii averaged an incredible 8.7 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.9 yppp to an average team and my math model projects the Warriors with 7.2 yppl and 32 points in this game, and Hawaii was held to 34 points by Boise State and 32 points by Oregon State – the two other good defensive teams that they have faced this season. Hawaii’s defense allowed a respectable 5.7 yppl this season but they did so against teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average team. Arizona State was inconsistent offensively and not as good from game 3 on without big play receiver Rudy Burgess, who was injured in that game and then moved to the defensive side of the ball. From game 3 on the Sun Devils averaged only 5.3 yppl but they did so against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team, so they were still better than average with a strong rushing attack (5.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.3 yprp) and modest passing numbers (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp). Hawaii faced only 5 teams that are average or better offensively this season and the Warriors allowed an average of 6.7 yppl and 33 points to those teams (Alabama, Boise State, New Mexico State, Purdue, and Oregon State), who would combine to rate at 0.3 yppl better than average – a bit worse than ASU’s offensive rating of +0.4 yppl. Hawaii hasn’t won and covered against any of the 4 best teams that they faced this season, losing to Alabama and Boise State and failing to cover as favorites against Purdue and Oregon State and they aren’t likely to cover the big number in this game either. My math model favors Hawaii by just 1 point at home and the Warriors apply to a negative 4-22-3 ATS big bowl favorite situation. Home teams favored by 7 points or more in a bowl game are just 3-7 ATS, including 0-2 for Hawaii, so if you thought Hawaii was a good play because they’re playing at home you should think again. The Pac-10 has been the most underrated major conference for years, as evidenced by the 177-119-3 ATS record of Pac-10 teams as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980, including 15-2 ATS in bowl games since 1997. I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +7.
Friday, December 29
**Houston (+6 ½) 31 South Carolina 30
Both of these teams are better now than they were earlier in the season and the offensive units should control this game against a pair of mediocre defensive teams. With that being the case, I certainly don’t mind taking the points with a Houston team that is led by a 4 year starting quarterback in Kevin Kolb that rarely makes mistakes (just 3 interceptions all season). Kolb had another fantastic season and averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) to go along with his incredible TD to interception ratio of 27 to 3. Houston’s offense got better in mid-season when speedy receiver Anthony Alridge was converted to running back to share duties with bulldozing back Jackie Battle (858 yards at 5.0 ypr). Alridge broke big runs in practically every game he played at running back and finished the season with 904 yards at an amazing 10.6 ypr, including averages of 112 yards at 10.2 ypr in 6 games at running back. Houston’s offense rates at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Alridge sharing running duties with Battle. That attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre South Carolina defense that has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. The 3 best offensive teams that South Carolina faced were Arkansas, Florida, and Clemson, each of whom the Gamecocks played in the final 4 weeks of the season. Those 3 teams combine to rate at 1.1 yppl better than average offensive (the same as Houston) and they combined to average 7.2 yppl against South Carolina – so the Gamecocks played even worse than normal defensively against really good offensive teams like Houston. South Carolina was competitive in those games because their offense was playing better than ever with Blake Mitchell back at quarterback after Syvelle Newton was moved to defensive safety. Mitchell ended the season averaging a robust 8.0 yppp despite facing defenses that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. With Mitchell at quarterback the Gamecocks rate at 1.6 yppl better than average offensively. Houston’s defense is 0.5 yppl worse than average using every game, but their top defensive player, S Will Gulley missed most of two games early in the season and the Cougars rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively with Gulley healthy. South Carolina has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage and a significant edge in special teams, but Houston has an advantage in projected turnovers and my math model favors the Gamecocks by 5 ½ points overall (with a total of 62 points). The reason for the play on Houston is a number of bowl situations that favor the Cougars, including an 82-43-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator applying to Houston and a negative 13-41 ATS situation that applies to South Carolina. I’ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more and I’ll lean Over 58 points or less.
Saturday, December 30
****Iowa (+10) 25 Texas 24
Iowa was perhaps the nation’s most disappointing team, finishing the season with 5 losses in their last 6 games while going 6-6 straight up and 1-10 ATS for the season. The Hawkeyes were hurt by injuries to key defensive players DE Iwebema (a 2005 1st team All-Big 10 selection who missed 5 games), S Paschal (missed 2 ½ games) and top CB Shada, who missed 4 ½ games and still nearly led the team in passes defended. Iowa’s defense went from very good to below average down the stretch without both Iwebema and Shada, but Shada is probable for this game and Iwebema may return too. In 6 games with both Paschal and Shada in the defensive backfield the Hawkeyes were 1.1 yards per pass play better than average, compared to 0.6 yppp worse than average in 6 games when one or both were out. Both Paschal and Shada will play in this game, but I’ll assume Iwebema will still be out until I hear differently. The Hawkeyes’ run defense isn’t quite as good without Iwebema and the pass rush isn’t as good either (worth almost 0.2 yppp), but I still rate the Hawkeyes’ defense at 0.7 yards per play better than average for this game. Texas quarterback Colt McCoy looks like he’s fully recovered from his shoulder injury and the Longhorns are 0.7 yppl better than average with McCoy at quarterback – so the battle between the Texas offense and Iowa’s now healthier defense is a draw. Iowa has an advantage when they have the ball, as the Hawkeyes are 0.6 yppl better than average offensively with Drew Tate at quarterback (he missed two games) while Texas was only 0.4 yppl better than average defensively this season, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team (the Longhorns also had a few players miss some games, but they were still 0.4 yppl better than average with all their starters playing). Texas will stop the run, as they always do, but their mediocre pass defense (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average team) will be exploited by a Drew Tate, who was banged up much of the season and still rated at 0.7 yppp better than average). My math model projects the yardage to be very close in this game, but favors Texas by 5 points on the basis of strong special teams and few projected turnovers. Teams that under-achieve during the regular season usually play better in their bowl game and Iowa applies to a 46-14-3 ATS bowl situation. I did not add any home field advantage for Texas, but playing in San Antonio could be worth a couple of points (although I count it as a neutral field). Of course, I think it will be tough for the Longhorns to get excited about playing in a minor bowl game against a .500 opponent the year after winning the National Championship. Iowa, meanwhile, will use the game as redemption for a poor season and I’ll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more, for 3-Stars from +7 ½ to +9 ½ and for 2-Stars at +7 points.
Monday, January 1
****West Virginia (-7) 35 Georgia Tech 14
What kind of line is West Virginia by 7? Is that West Virginia’s backups against Georgia Tech’s starters? The Yellow Jackets are a mediocre team and West Virginia is one of the top teams in the nation. This game shouldn’t be close if West Virginia plays anywhere close to their normal level – and I have no reason to believe that they won’t. Mountaineers’ quarterback Pat White will be healthy after a more than a month off since last playing (he sat out their overtime win against Rutgers with a couple of nagging injuries) and White and running back Steve Slaton will be too much for a good, but not great Georgia Tech defense. Slaton ran for 1733 yards at 7.1 ypr and White 1128 yards at 8.6 yards per rushing play (not including sacks). White also had a good season throwing the football (8.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and West Virginia’s attack rates at 2.1 yards per play better than average, which gives them a huge advantage over a Georgia Tech stop unit that allowed 4.5 yppl this season and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average. Georgia Tech played a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams and they faced just one team with the speed and rushing attack that comes close to comparing to West Virginia. That opponent was Clemson and the Tigers racked up 332 rushing yards at 9.0 yards per rushing play while racking up 7.9 yppl and 31 points. My math model forecasts 35 points on 431 yards at 6.6 yppl for West Virginia in this game, which is well below the Mounties’ season average of 7.5 yppl with White starting at quarterback. That will be more than enough to beat a Georgia Tech team with a horrible offense that averaged just 5.0 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The Yellow Jackets have a 1st Team All-American WR in Calvin Johnson but quarterback Reggie Ball still completed only 44% of this passes for 5.1 yards per pass play. West Virginia has been susceptible to good pass attacks this season, but they are still a bit better than average against the pass overall and are very tough to run against (3.7 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp). Overall, West Virginia is 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and they have a 0.8 yppl advantage over Georgia Tech’s offense (to go along with the Mounties’ 1.2 yppl advantage when they have the ball). West Virginia also has an advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Mountaineers by 21 ½ points in this game and gives them a 67% chance of covering at -7 points. I’ll take West Virginia in a 4-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less, for 3- Stars from -8 ½ to -10 points and for 2-Stars at more than -10 points.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Can somebody explain to me who Dr. Bob is and why people think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread?
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Thanks guys, I've heard the name all year and figured he was just some sort of tout who was going on a run. Nothing wrong with math, Joe supports math. Good to see he's doing well. Not crazy that he's moving lines, though. I mean, a half point here or there is one thing, two points is entirely different.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
At 1:00 est every Thursday his picks were sent out to his cutomers via email and for next hour lines would go crazy on 5-10 games
That's somewhat remarkable, that he would have that much impact. Not that I'd pay it, but is he getting a lot of money for his picks?
That's somewhat remarkable, that he would have that much impact. Not that I'd pay it, but is he getting a lot of money for his picks?
texasfight
Karl Marx sucks balls
Dr. Bob has sucked shit through a straw so far in bowl season. Two fuckstompings by the other side. I'll be happy to opposite him the rest of the way. There are many cappers on this site better than his shitty computer model.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Dr. Bob has sucked shit through a straw so far in bowl season.
That's funny s**t. Frankly I'm not going to talk either way, I had the Steelers going into Baltimore a few weeks ago and they got shutout by like 27. Still, Oregon really wasn't in this game, even close to in it.
That's funny s**t. Frankly I'm not going to talk either way, I had the Steelers going into Baltimore a few weeks ago and they got shutout by like 27. Still, Oregon really wasn't in this game, even close to in it.
chitwood
Pretty much a regular
Dr. Bob is 0-1 so far in the bowl season, Oregon is the only game he has picked so far (and boy did he miss that bad). He had Troy as a strong opinion tonight, but that's not an official pick. He's done very well over the last three years--he's a good handicapper--not saying anyone should spend money for the picks but he knows what he's doing.
He's 44-31-3 so far this season and 121-77-7 on a star basis (he assigns games 2, 3 or 4 stars). The last three years he's 388-213-14 on a star basis.
He's 44-31-3 so far this season and 121-77-7 on a star basis (he assigns games 2, 3 or 4 stars). The last three years he's 388-213-14 on a star basis.
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
I believe I've answered my own question about expensive or not, his price list.
$215 doesn't seem like a lot for bowl games, especially if he, and/or the people who subscribe, are actually moving lines. I thought this guy would be more expensive than that.
Of course, I don't pay for picks so it's all relative, I suppose.
$215 doesn't seem like a lot for bowl games, especially if he, and/or the people who subscribe, are actually moving lines. I thought this guy would be more expensive than that.
Of course, I don't pay for picks so it's all relative, I suppose.
Johnny the Saint
Member
0 and 2 so far. Both 3 star picks. I like Houston and LOVE West Virginia. That Iowa pick makes me want to gag. They played so horribly all year. It is a ton of points but Texas should be pissed and has a great bowl history under Mack Brown.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
I am glad he is 0-2, sorry for you guys on the same side of him but this season I often found myself placing a bet on Tuesday because I liked the line and than on Thursday he dropped that shit 3 points.. We will be against each other again with this Houston game, he has them SU with the upset........NOT SO FAST!
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