Arizona Primed to Bounce Back Against Lowly Mets
Arizona begins a four-game set against the Mets tonight. Arizona is the only team that’s been scoring lately and they’ll ride their hot bats to victory tonight.
New York Mets (28-36 at Arizona Diamondbacks (37-30)
MLB Pick: Arizona ML
Arizona’s Matt Koch (4-3, 4.20 ERA) is a contact pitcher who tends to induce fly balls. He had been a reliever who relied on a fastball-cutter combo. In order to become a starter, he had to expand his arsenal to prevent batters from sitting on his primary pitches. So he reduced his fastball and cutter usage slightly and emphasizes his slider and change-up with 10 percent extra frequency.
The young righty has alternated between yielding an ERA over 9 and under 2 in his last five starts. He has beaten lineups like Houston which rank strongest against his pitches and been slammed by the worst ones. I expect him to bounce back today, as he has throughout the past month.
The Mets haven’t managed more than two runs in nine of their past 11 games. For example, their best hitter, Asdrubal Cabrera, is batting .130 in his past 15 days. It’s not like they’ve been facing Cy Young candidates, but rather the likes of Chicago’s Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana, Baltimore’s Alex Cobb, and Atlanta’s Julio Teheran. Those pitchers have an ERA above 3.97. The Mets show terrible team rhythm, having lost 10 of their last 11. So the Mets’ poor streak is meaningful because it has persisted even against weaker competition. Match-up wise, the Mets rank 25th overall and 29th in the past month in slugging against Koch’s favorite pitch, the 90-95 mph fastball, thrown by righties. Against Koch’s four pitches, they rank 28th in slugging since May.
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Jason Vargas (2-4, 7.71 ERA) is starting in place of the injured Steven Matz. Vargas is the Mets’ biggest hope today, but in four of his seven starts, he’s allowed at least as many runs as innings pitched.
Vargas was a three-pitch pitcher last year, but has reintroduced the fastball into his repertoire despite its lack of velocity. He has relied on it with increased frequency in his past four starts. In his worst starts, his opponent has slugged at least .700 against his sinker, which is his primary pitch, or fastball. In his first three starts, Vargas got slammed, but three of his last four starts have been strong. I looked at things like velocity, pitch location, vertical release point, and pitch usage to explain his improvement and didn’t find anything significant—just a minimal increase in his change-up velocity, slight stabilization of his vertical release points and a small decrease of pitches left over the heart of the plate.
None of Vargas’ improvements prevented Milwaukee from slamming him on May 26. But he has had the benefit of facing Miami and Baltimore, who rank in the bottom five in slugging against his pitches—the four-seamer, sinker, change-up and curveball-- thrown by lefties since May. He has faced three teams who rank in the top 10 in the category and was slammed by San Diego and Atlanta, but succeeded in the rematch against a statistically regressing Braves lineup. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the category and are statistically even underachieving. They rank second since May.
Arizona’s lineup has been enjoying a positive streak which has driven the total „over“ in seven of its last nine home games. They have scored 68 runs in their past nine home games, producing over four runs in all but two, and have won seven of their past nine home games
I don’t trust the Mets’ lineup to help the total „over“ but I do trust Arizona’s hot lineup. Look out for David Peralta, who is batting .455 in his past seven days. The Mets’ bullpen ranks third-to-last and in two of Arizona’s last nine home games, they’ve scored over 80% of their runs in the final three innings. Arizona’s MLB-leading bullpen provides another advantage.
Arizona begins a four-game set against the Mets tonight. Arizona is the only team that’s been scoring lately and they’ll ride their hot bats to victory tonight.
New York Mets (28-36 at Arizona Diamondbacks (37-30)
MLB Pick: Arizona ML
Arizona’s Matt Koch (4-3, 4.20 ERA) is a contact pitcher who tends to induce fly balls. He had been a reliever who relied on a fastball-cutter combo. In order to become a starter, he had to expand his arsenal to prevent batters from sitting on his primary pitches. So he reduced his fastball and cutter usage slightly and emphasizes his slider and change-up with 10 percent extra frequency.
The young righty has alternated between yielding an ERA over 9 and under 2 in his last five starts. He has beaten lineups like Houston which rank strongest against his pitches and been slammed by the worst ones. I expect him to bounce back today, as he has throughout the past month.
The Mets haven’t managed more than two runs in nine of their past 11 games. For example, their best hitter, Asdrubal Cabrera, is batting .130 in his past 15 days. It’s not like they’ve been facing Cy Young candidates, but rather the likes of Chicago’s Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana, Baltimore’s Alex Cobb, and Atlanta’s Julio Teheran. Those pitchers have an ERA above 3.97. The Mets show terrible team rhythm, having lost 10 of their last 11. So the Mets’ poor streak is meaningful because it has persisted even against weaker competition. Match-up wise, the Mets rank 25th overall and 29th in the past month in slugging against Koch’s favorite pitch, the 90-95 mph fastball, thrown by righties. Against Koch’s four pitches, they rank 28th in slugging since May.
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Jason Vargas (2-4, 7.71 ERA) is starting in place of the injured Steven Matz. Vargas is the Mets’ biggest hope today, but in four of his seven starts, he’s allowed at least as many runs as innings pitched.
Vargas was a three-pitch pitcher last year, but has reintroduced the fastball into his repertoire despite its lack of velocity. He has relied on it with increased frequency in his past four starts. In his worst starts, his opponent has slugged at least .700 against his sinker, which is his primary pitch, or fastball. In his first three starts, Vargas got slammed, but three of his last four starts have been strong. I looked at things like velocity, pitch location, vertical release point, and pitch usage to explain his improvement and didn’t find anything significant—just a minimal increase in his change-up velocity, slight stabilization of his vertical release points and a small decrease of pitches left over the heart of the plate.
None of Vargas’ improvements prevented Milwaukee from slamming him on May 26. But he has had the benefit of facing Miami and Baltimore, who rank in the bottom five in slugging against his pitches—the four-seamer, sinker, change-up and curveball-- thrown by lefties since May. He has faced three teams who rank in the top 10 in the category and was slammed by San Diego and Atlanta, but succeeded in the rematch against a statistically regressing Braves lineup. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the category and are statistically even underachieving. They rank second since May.
Arizona’s lineup has been enjoying a positive streak which has driven the total „over“ in seven of its last nine home games. They have scored 68 runs in their past nine home games, producing over four runs in all but two, and have won seven of their past nine home games
I don’t trust the Mets’ lineup to help the total „over“ but I do trust Arizona’s hot lineup. Look out for David Peralta, who is batting .455 in his past seven days. The Mets’ bullpen ranks third-to-last and in two of Arizona’s last nine home games, they’ve scored over 80% of their runs in the final three innings. Arizona’s MLB-leading bullpen provides another advantage.
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