Diamondbacks vs. Giants: MLB Best Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Cool Hand Luke
Based on Arizona starter Luke Weaver’s surface stats — he’s 1-3 with a 9.16 ERA — it seems like he is having an awful season.
But his current ERA reflects only his first four starts and not his last one.
It is easy to say in hindsight. But the criteria that I typically rely on show that there was no reason to worry about Weaver’s physical ability to perform.
For example, his pitch velocity was normal for him.
So, physically speaking, he always still had the potential to succeed and he figured out how to succeed in his last start.
On August 18, he held Oakland to one run over five innings. For the first time this season, he was able to keep the ball inside the ballpark.
Weaver vs San Francisco Batters
Two game-day details speak strongly for Weaver.
One, he loves pitching in San Francisco.
In his career in San Francisco’s home ballpark, he is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four starts.
Of the nine ballparks in which he has started multiple times, San Francisco’s is undoubtedly his best one.
Two, Weaver’s numbers against active Giants batters are solid.
In 33 at-bats, active Giant batters are hitting .182 and slugging .212 against Weaver.
It is true that 33 at-bats are not a lot. But the stats are extremely promising.
Of those 33 at-bats, only one has resulted in an extra-base hit, a double.
Cumulatively, San Fran batters have struck out twice as many times (12) against Weaver, then they have hits (six) against him.
Expect little from Brandon Crawford, for example. He’s 1-for-8 (.125) lifetime against Weaver.
Likewise, Pablo Sandoval is 0-for-7 facing Weaver.
Trevor Cahill: Sound The Alarms
Unlike Weaver during his streak of bad performances, Cahill is giving us reason to worry about him.
Cahill relies primarily on four different pitches. His sinker, curveball, slider, and change-up make up about 96 percent of his arsenal.
His average sinker velocity is down 1.03 mph from last year. His slider’s velocity drop is a bit less worrisome while his curveball and change-up have dropped between 1.5 and 2.15 mph from last year.
Velocity drop could result from some sort of difficulty with mechanics.
Cahill’s release points have shifted strongly from his first outing to his second.
So, it could be that he is working out some mechanical issue that is preventing him from achieving a consistent delivery. It could also be that he is suffering from some physical ailment.
You may ask: but isn’t his ERA very good? So who cares about his velocity?
His 1.59 ERA masks a 5.99 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 5.43 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average fly ball-to-home run ratio).
He typically likes to induce ground balls. But the rate at which he is inducing them this year has dropped to a horribly low 23 percent. He is also barely generating any soft contact.
So, whereas he wants to create soft contact and keep balls on the ground, batters are hitting his pitches hard and elevating them.
This tendency encourages a higher slugging rate.
Cahill vs Arizona Batters
In 41 at-bats, active Arizona hitters collectively own a .341 BA and .659 slugging rate against Cahill.
Eduardo Escobar, who’s showing much stronger form than his season BA suggests, is 2-for-2 against Cahill with two homers.
The hot David Peralta is 2-for-3 (.667) facing Cahill. Starling Marte, who is enjoying a superb season, is 5-for-11 (.455) with a triple and a homer when facing Cahill.
Trends & Bullpen
Two trends confirm a full-game play on Arizona today.
One, the Giants are 0-5 thus far in the finale of a three-game series.
Two, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 in this situation.
Also note that, in terms of ERA, San Fran owns a 5.97 collective bullpen ERA, which is 5th-worst and far worse than Zona’s.
This disparity in bullpen depth and quality likely explains at least somewhat why these two trends exist.
The Verdict
One pitcher — Arizona’s — has figured things out. The other, San Francisco’s, is clearly struggling while showing physical or mechanical signs of deterioration.
Arizona enjoys hot hitters and a bevy of hitters who thrive when facing Cahill.
Trends, in addition to match-up details, suggest a full-game wager on the Diamondbacks.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, be sure to take advantage of Weaver’s advantage with a first-half play on Arizona as well.
I recommend devoting a half-unit to the Diamondbacks full-game ML and a half-unit to the first-half ML.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half & Full-Game ML (Odds TBA)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 23, 2020 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Cool Hand Luke
Based on Arizona starter Luke Weaver’s surface stats — he’s 1-3 with a 9.16 ERA — it seems like he is having an awful season.
But his current ERA reflects only his first four starts and not his last one.
It is easy to say in hindsight. But the criteria that I typically rely on show that there was no reason to worry about Weaver’s physical ability to perform.
For example, his pitch velocity was normal for him.
So, physically speaking, he always still had the potential to succeed and he figured out how to succeed in his last start.
On August 18, he held Oakland to one run over five innings. For the first time this season, he was able to keep the ball inside the ballpark.
Weaver vs San Francisco Batters
Two game-day details speak strongly for Weaver.
One, he loves pitching in San Francisco.
In his career in San Francisco’s home ballpark, he is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four starts.
Of the nine ballparks in which he has started multiple times, San Francisco’s is undoubtedly his best one.
Two, Weaver’s numbers against active Giants batters are solid.
In 33 at-bats, active Giant batters are hitting .182 and slugging .212 against Weaver.
It is true that 33 at-bats are not a lot. But the stats are extremely promising.
Of those 33 at-bats, only one has resulted in an extra-base hit, a double.
Cumulatively, San Fran batters have struck out twice as many times (12) against Weaver, then they have hits (six) against him.
Expect little from Brandon Crawford, for example. He’s 1-for-8 (.125) lifetime against Weaver.
Likewise, Pablo Sandoval is 0-for-7 facing Weaver.
Trevor Cahill: Sound The Alarms
Unlike Weaver during his streak of bad performances, Cahill is giving us reason to worry about him.
Cahill relies primarily on four different pitches. His sinker, curveball, slider, and change-up make up about 96 percent of his arsenal.
His average sinker velocity is down 1.03 mph from last year. His slider’s velocity drop is a bit less worrisome while his curveball and change-up have dropped between 1.5 and 2.15 mph from last year.
Velocity drop could result from some sort of difficulty with mechanics.
Cahill’s release points have shifted strongly from his first outing to his second.
So, it could be that he is working out some mechanical issue that is preventing him from achieving a consistent delivery. It could also be that he is suffering from some physical ailment.
You may ask: but isn’t his ERA very good? So who cares about his velocity?
His 1.59 ERA masks a 5.99 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 5.43 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average fly ball-to-home run ratio).
He typically likes to induce ground balls. But the rate at which he is inducing them this year has dropped to a horribly low 23 percent. He is also barely generating any soft contact.
So, whereas he wants to create soft contact and keep balls on the ground, batters are hitting his pitches hard and elevating them.
This tendency encourages a higher slugging rate.
Cahill vs Arizona Batters
In 41 at-bats, active Arizona hitters collectively own a .341 BA and .659 slugging rate against Cahill.
Eduardo Escobar, who’s showing much stronger form than his season BA suggests, is 2-for-2 against Cahill with two homers.
The hot David Peralta is 2-for-3 (.667) facing Cahill. Starling Marte, who is enjoying a superb season, is 5-for-11 (.455) with a triple and a homer when facing Cahill.
Trends & Bullpen
Two trends confirm a full-game play on Arizona today.
One, the Giants are 0-5 thus far in the finale of a three-game series.
Two, the Diamondbacks are 3-1 in this situation.
Also note that, in terms of ERA, San Fran owns a 5.97 collective bullpen ERA, which is 5th-worst and far worse than Zona’s.
This disparity in bullpen depth and quality likely explains at least somewhat why these two trends exist.
The Verdict
One pitcher — Arizona’s — has figured things out. The other, San Francisco’s, is clearly struggling while showing physical or mechanical signs of deterioration.
Arizona enjoys hot hitters and a bevy of hitters who thrive when facing Cahill.
Trends, in addition to match-up details, suggest a full-game wager on the Diamondbacks.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, be sure to take advantage of Weaver’s advantage with a first-half play on Arizona as well.
I recommend devoting a half-unit to the Diamondbacks full-game ML and a half-unit to the first-half ML.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First-Half & Full-Game ML (Odds TBA)
