Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers: Best MLB Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Alex Young As A Starter
This game presents a unique betting opportunity because Arizona pitcher Alex Young (1-1, 4.70 ERA) has joined his team’s starting rotation.
Young is not a starter by choice. Rather, several of his team’s starting pitchers have been injured or are, for some other reason, not on the team.
As a starter, Young is doing even worse than he did as a reliever. He’s started three games this season and is, in those three starts, yielding a .585 slugging rate.
He has conceded four home runs in the three starts and is yielding a 5.83 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Young’s Deficiencies
As a starter, one ideally wants to have at least three quality pitches that one can count on. In contrast, good relievers can get away with having only two strong pitches since opposing lineups have less time to figure them out.
Young is the type of pitcher who doesn’t want to blow an opposing lineup away with higher-velocity stuff. Instead, he counts on variety as a weapon with which he remains unpredictable.
While Young may remain unpredictable in the cheap sense of presenting many pitch offerings, he does not offer much quality.
Of the five pitches that he employs regularly, three of them are yielding a slugging rate over .700.
These three pitches are his fastball, sinker, and cutter. He tends to get slammed because these pitches combine to make up close to 60 percent of his pitching arsenal.
A large reason why Young is allowing 2.74 home runs per game and is yielding hard contact at an absurd 50 percent ratio is that his command is not good.
Throwing strikes has always been a problem for him. Likewise, pitching charts show that he leaves a lot of pitches in the more middle parts of the plate.
Young vs Dodgers Batters
One may expect Young, because he is a lefty, to perform well against a Dodger lineup that relies relatively heavily on left-handed batters.
However, Young is performing well against neither lefties nor righties and he is playing even more poorly against the former.
While he yields a 5.40 FIP against righties, he yields a 6.73 FIP when facing lefties.
A lefty who will be dangerous tonight is Max Muncy. In four at-bats against Young, he has three hits and two homers.
Overall, Dodger batters have seen very little of Young. But he won’t offer them any surprises.
Julio Urias
L.A. starter Julio Urias (2-0, 3.67 ERA) promises to bounce back from his last outing which proved to be a rare struggle for him.
That start came on the road. At home, though, Urias has been a model of consistency. In each of his three home starts this season, he allowed two runs or fewer.
Urias relies heavily on his fastball — he’s throwing it with with 58.21 percent frequency.
This pitch shows well above-average velocity for a starter — it averages over 94 mph — and positive spin rate.
He loves to locate his fastball up in the zone. This locational tendency is a smart tactic with which Urias emphasizes both his fastball velocity and its spin rate.
Batters more often whiff at the high heat especially when it has the appearance of strong rising action.
Urias owns much more in his repertoire than just a fastball. He throws three other pitches — a slider, curveball, and change-up — each with over 10 percent frequency.
In particular, his curveball is an effective weapon against both lefties and righties. Overall, opponents are hitting .188 against it.
Besides velocity, Urias also exhibits good deceptive skills. He masks the horizontal and vertical release points of his two most effective pitches, his fastball and curve.
In doing so, he prevents batters from discerning which of the two pitches is leaving his hand. This preventive maneuver delays the batter’s reaction time.
To a slightly lesser extent, he also achieves his deception with his sider.
Urias vs. Diamondback Batters
Diamondback batters have seen little of Urias. But Urias’ success against them is promising.
In 37 at-bats, active Arizona hitters own a collective .216 BA and .351 slugging rate when facing Urias.
David Peralta, for example, is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.
Arizona matches up especially poorly with Urias because it ranks last in slugging .276 against the fastball from lefties. So Urias will excel with his favorite pitch tonight.
Form & Bullpen
The Diamondbacks have been constant losers of late. They’ve lost 10 of their last 11 overall. Seven of those losses came by multiple runs.
In contrast, the Dodgers have won four of their last five with all four wins coming by multiple runs.
Both teams also differ strongly in bullpen. The Diamondbacks’ ranks sixth-to-last in ERA whereas L.A.’s ranks second-best.
The Verdict
Like in terms of form, both teams differ in terms of match-up.
With a soft opponent on the mound and a pitcher who stands to perform well today, the Dodgers look to win by multiple runs.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-125) with 5Dimes
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, September 1, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Alex Young As A Starter
This game presents a unique betting opportunity because Arizona pitcher Alex Young (1-1, 4.70 ERA) has joined his team’s starting rotation.
Young is not a starter by choice. Rather, several of his team’s starting pitchers have been injured or are, for some other reason, not on the team.
As a starter, Young is doing even worse than he did as a reliever. He’s started three games this season and is, in those three starts, yielding a .585 slugging rate.
He has conceded four home runs in the three starts and is yielding a 5.83 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Young’s Deficiencies
As a starter, one ideally wants to have at least three quality pitches that one can count on. In contrast, good relievers can get away with having only two strong pitches since opposing lineups have less time to figure them out.
Young is the type of pitcher who doesn’t want to blow an opposing lineup away with higher-velocity stuff. Instead, he counts on variety as a weapon with which he remains unpredictable.
While Young may remain unpredictable in the cheap sense of presenting many pitch offerings, he does not offer much quality.
Of the five pitches that he employs regularly, three of them are yielding a slugging rate over .700.
These three pitches are his fastball, sinker, and cutter. He tends to get slammed because these pitches combine to make up close to 60 percent of his pitching arsenal.
A large reason why Young is allowing 2.74 home runs per game and is yielding hard contact at an absurd 50 percent ratio is that his command is not good.
Throwing strikes has always been a problem for him. Likewise, pitching charts show that he leaves a lot of pitches in the more middle parts of the plate.
Young vs Dodgers Batters
One may expect Young, because he is a lefty, to perform well against a Dodger lineup that relies relatively heavily on left-handed batters.
However, Young is performing well against neither lefties nor righties and he is playing even more poorly against the former.
While he yields a 5.40 FIP against righties, he yields a 6.73 FIP when facing lefties.
A lefty who will be dangerous tonight is Max Muncy. In four at-bats against Young, he has three hits and two homers.
Overall, Dodger batters have seen very little of Young. But he won’t offer them any surprises.
Julio Urias
L.A. starter Julio Urias (2-0, 3.67 ERA) promises to bounce back from his last outing which proved to be a rare struggle for him.
That start came on the road. At home, though, Urias has been a model of consistency. In each of his three home starts this season, he allowed two runs or fewer.
Urias relies heavily on his fastball — he’s throwing it with with 58.21 percent frequency.
This pitch shows well above-average velocity for a starter — it averages over 94 mph — and positive spin rate.
He loves to locate his fastball up in the zone. This locational tendency is a smart tactic with which Urias emphasizes both his fastball velocity and its spin rate.
Batters more often whiff at the high heat especially when it has the appearance of strong rising action.
Urias owns much more in his repertoire than just a fastball. He throws three other pitches — a slider, curveball, and change-up — each with over 10 percent frequency.
In particular, his curveball is an effective weapon against both lefties and righties. Overall, opponents are hitting .188 against it.
Besides velocity, Urias also exhibits good deceptive skills. He masks the horizontal and vertical release points of his two most effective pitches, his fastball and curve.
In doing so, he prevents batters from discerning which of the two pitches is leaving his hand. This preventive maneuver delays the batter’s reaction time.
To a slightly lesser extent, he also achieves his deception with his sider.
Urias vs. Diamondback Batters
Diamondback batters have seen little of Urias. But Urias’ success against them is promising.
In 37 at-bats, active Arizona hitters own a collective .216 BA and .351 slugging rate when facing Urias.
David Peralta, for example, is 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.
Arizona matches up especially poorly with Urias because it ranks last in slugging .276 against the fastball from lefties. So Urias will excel with his favorite pitch tonight.
Form & Bullpen
The Diamondbacks have been constant losers of late. They’ve lost 10 of their last 11 overall. Seven of those losses came by multiple runs.
In contrast, the Dodgers have won four of their last five with all four wins coming by multiple runs.
Both teams also differ strongly in bullpen. The Diamondbacks’ ranks sixth-to-last in ERA whereas L.A.’s ranks second-best.
The Verdict
Like in terms of form, both teams differ in terms of match-up.
With a soft opponent on the mound and a pitcher who stands to perform well today, the Dodgers look to win by multiple runs.
Best Bet: Dodgers RL (-125) with 5Dimes
