MLB Parlay for Today at (+223) Features Incredible Pitcher's Duel in Houston
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Zac Gallen is mostly an "under" pitcher.
While this is true overall -- the "under" s hitting in 55.56 percent of all his starts -- it is especially true when he pitches outside of Arizona and when he is listed as the underdog.
For example, on June 21 he was listed as the underdog in San Diego, and the "under" hit in that game.
What was particularly interesting about that game was that posted total was 6.5, as it currently is for this game.
Evidently, 6.5 is not too high of a total.
As I will explain, we also get a stronger pair of starting pitchers because Gallen's counterpart tonight will be Houston's Justin Verlander, whereas San Diego's Sean Manaea was the other pitcher in that June 21 contest.
Gallen's Form
Gallen enters tonight's game in incredible form.
He has allowed one run or zero runs in seven of his last nine starts.
Moreover, he has yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 1.60 in four of his past five starts.
His command has been spot-on as evident in the rarity with which he concedes walks or home runs.
Clearly, runs do not come cheaply against him.
Matchup Considerations
Moreover, Gallen is thriving even against teams that match up well against him on paper.
For example, he just held the Dodgers to two hits and one run in his last start even though they rank third in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Gallen owns a nice mixture of pitches.
But opponents bat less than .170 against his two favorite ones in particular, his fastball and cutter, which he throws about 70 percent of the time.
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for the Astros tonight.
Similar to Gallen, Verlander is a reliable "under" pitcher.
As in his last start, he gets dealt a 6.5 or other low posted totals, and it still turns out that the "over" is a bad bet.
Overall, the "under" is hitting in 80 percent of his starts.
Verlander's Form
The "under" has hit in each of his last four starts.
His form largely explains this trend.
He has allowed a combined total of two runs during this four-game stretch.
His FIP was under 1.80 in these four starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers tonight.
Urias enters tonight's contest in strong form.
He has allowed one run or fewer in eight of his past nine starts.
Urias is an example of a pitcher who gives up home runs but does so unproblematically.
While he consistently will allow a home run in a game, he is yielding solo home runs.
He is more aggressive when there aren't any baserunners because the penalty for allowing a home run in this situation is obviously as low as possible -- he just allows one run.
Urias vs. Padre Batters
Hence, against San Diego, he has allowed three home runs this season but only four earned runs.
His numbers against the Padres are indeed excellent, and they make him reliable tonight.
In three starts against them, he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA.
Who Starts for San Diego?
When facing the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove does not share Urias' consistent level of success that Urias has when he faces the Padres.
Most critically, Dodger batters match up excellently against Musgrove.
They rank fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Astros under 6.5 at -115 & Dodgers ML at -137 at +223 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, Zac Gallen is mostly an "under" pitcher.
While this is true overall -- the "under" s hitting in 55.56 percent of all his starts -- it is especially true when he pitches outside of Arizona and when he is listed as the underdog.
For example, on June 21 he was listed as the underdog in San Diego, and the "under" hit in that game.
What was particularly interesting about that game was that posted total was 6.5, as it currently is for this game.
Evidently, 6.5 is not too high of a total.
As I will explain, we also get a stronger pair of starting pitchers because Gallen's counterpart tonight will be Houston's Justin Verlander, whereas San Diego's Sean Manaea was the other pitcher in that June 21 contest.
Gallen's Form
Gallen enters tonight's game in incredible form.
He has allowed one run or zero runs in seven of his last nine starts.
Moreover, he has yielded an FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) below 1.60 in four of his past five starts.
His command has been spot-on as evident in the rarity with which he concedes walks or home runs.
Clearly, runs do not come cheaply against him.
Matchup Considerations
Moreover, Gallen is thriving even against teams that match up well against him on paper.
For example, he just held the Dodgers to two hits and one run in his last start even though they rank third in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Gallen owns a nice mixture of pitches.
But opponents bat less than .170 against his two favorite ones in particular, his fastball and cutter, which he throws about 70 percent of the time.
Who Starts for Houston?
Justin Verlander starts for the Astros tonight.
Similar to Gallen, Verlander is a reliable "under" pitcher.
As in his last start, he gets dealt a 6.5 or other low posted totals, and it still turns out that the "over" is a bad bet.
Overall, the "under" is hitting in 80 percent of his starts.
Verlander's Form
The "under" has hit in each of his last four starts.
His form largely explains this trend.
He has allowed a combined total of two runs during this four-game stretch.
His FIP was under 1.80 in these four starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, September 28, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Who Starts for the Dodgers?
Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers tonight.
Urias enters tonight's contest in strong form.
He has allowed one run or fewer in eight of his past nine starts.
Urias is an example of a pitcher who gives up home runs but does so unproblematically.
While he consistently will allow a home run in a game, he is yielding solo home runs.
He is more aggressive when there aren't any baserunners because the penalty for allowing a home run in this situation is obviously as low as possible -- he just allows one run.
Urias vs. Padre Batters
Hence, against San Diego, he has allowed three home runs this season but only four earned runs.
His numbers against the Padres are indeed excellent, and they make him reliable tonight.
In three starts against them, he is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA.
Who Starts for San Diego?
When facing the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove does not share Urias' consistent level of success that Urias has when he faces the Padres.
Most critically, Dodger batters match up excellently against Musgrove.
They rank fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Astros under 6.5 at -115 & Dodgers ML at -137 at +223 odds with BetOnline
