Snakes Will Make Angels Fall to Defeat of Biblical Proportion on Wednesday
The Diamondbacks host the Angels on Wednesday at 9:40 ET. Arizona is strongly favored. Let’s chalk it up.
Wednesday, 9:40 ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks
Arizona’s Clay Buchholz (6-2, 2.47 ERA) shows strong form, conceding three earned runs combined in his last two starts (16 innings). In each start, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.30, he achieved a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and yielded a hard contact rate below his season average. Arizona is 5-1 in Buchholz’s night games, yielding +4.2 units, and 3-1 in his home games, yielding +1.7 units.
One thing I don’t understand about starting pitchers nowadays is that more of them care about the velocity of their pitches. Regularly pumping 97 mph fastballs can be effective—that’s why most top closers do that—but it takes a lot out of a starter’s arm over the course of a long season. So, while Yankee Luis Severino had been thought of as a Cy Young candidate, he is currently struggling just to survive five innings. Conversely, Clay Buchholz, this boring pitcher whose fastball only averages 90 mph, is still a moneymaker for bettors. He’s consistent because his arm isn’t shot like Severino’s, and he achieves the same level of effectivity with his tools, one of which is not velocity.
High velocity is effective by trumping a batter’s reaction skills. Buchholz relies on the variety of his pitches, their velocity differential, some of their identical vertical and horizontal release points, and balanced pitch sequencing in order to stay unpredictable, mask which pitch is approaching the batter, and trump their reaction skills. He relies on five different pitches with between 16 and 25 percent frequency and balances them well in different scenarios such as in an even count, with two strikes, etc. Batters hit .237 against his sinker and his fastball and change-up each yield an opposing batting average under .170. These last two pitches comprise the heart of his arsenal because of their 13 mph velocity differential, the highest among pitchers. For example, when he starts a batter off with a 77 mph change-up and the batter knows that this change-up could come again, Buchholz responds with a 90 mph fastball that the batter actually perceives to be fast because it follows such a slow pitch and he struggles to adjust. If perception equals reality, then there is no substantial difference between Severino’s heater and Buchholz’s.
The Angels are in a tough spot. They’re 2-6 in the last game of a road stand. Some current Angels have strong numbers against Buchholz because they faced him before his resurrection this year as a Diamondback, as something which he hadn’t been in recent years, as a strike-throwing machine who hits the zone with 67% frequency and doesn’t walk many batters. Andrelton Simmons and Kole Calhoun are combined 1-for-15 against him.
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LA’s Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 6.29 ERA) remains in LA’s starting rotation. He’s 0-1 in three outings (two starts) in which he endured at least four innings. He’s struggling to succeed in his transition into the rotation. His ERA as a starter is more than twice as high as his reliever ERA. He has yet to survive more than five innings, which is concerning, because LA’s bullpen ranks sixth-to-last in terms of FIP.
Despaigne relies primarily on a fastball-sinker-cutter combo. These three pitches comprise 72% of his arsenal on the season, 84% so far in August. Some of his pitches show good movement and others respectable velocity. But he can’t command any of them well—he throws each of them at a much higher rate for a ball. His best pitch is the sinker, which opponents hit only .167 against. But the ball rate of his sinker is nearly twice as high as its strike rate. Opponents hit over .600 against both his fastball and cutter.
Arizona is 7-2 after the All-Star Break in the last game of a series. In August, Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against his three pitches from righties. Watch for David Peralta, who hits .346 at home. Paul Goldschmidt is batting .522 in his past seven days.
The Diamondbacks host the Angels on Wednesday at 9:40 ET. Arizona is strongly favored. Let’s chalk it up.
Wednesday, 9:40 ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks
Arizona’s Clay Buchholz (6-2, 2.47 ERA) shows strong form, conceding three earned runs combined in his last two starts (16 innings). In each start, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was under 3.30, he achieved a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and yielded a hard contact rate below his season average. Arizona is 5-1 in Buchholz’s night games, yielding +4.2 units, and 3-1 in his home games, yielding +1.7 units.
One thing I don’t understand about starting pitchers nowadays is that more of them care about the velocity of their pitches. Regularly pumping 97 mph fastballs can be effective—that’s why most top closers do that—but it takes a lot out of a starter’s arm over the course of a long season. So, while Yankee Luis Severino had been thought of as a Cy Young candidate, he is currently struggling just to survive five innings. Conversely, Clay Buchholz, this boring pitcher whose fastball only averages 90 mph, is still a moneymaker for bettors. He’s consistent because his arm isn’t shot like Severino’s, and he achieves the same level of effectivity with his tools, one of which is not velocity.
High velocity is effective by trumping a batter’s reaction skills. Buchholz relies on the variety of his pitches, their velocity differential, some of their identical vertical and horizontal release points, and balanced pitch sequencing in order to stay unpredictable, mask which pitch is approaching the batter, and trump their reaction skills. He relies on five different pitches with between 16 and 25 percent frequency and balances them well in different scenarios such as in an even count, with two strikes, etc. Batters hit .237 against his sinker and his fastball and change-up each yield an opposing batting average under .170. These last two pitches comprise the heart of his arsenal because of their 13 mph velocity differential, the highest among pitchers. For example, when he starts a batter off with a 77 mph change-up and the batter knows that this change-up could come again, Buchholz responds with a 90 mph fastball that the batter actually perceives to be fast because it follows such a slow pitch and he struggles to adjust. If perception equals reality, then there is no substantial difference between Severino’s heater and Buchholz’s.
The Angels are in a tough spot. They’re 2-6 in the last game of a road stand. Some current Angels have strong numbers against Buchholz because they faced him before his resurrection this year as a Diamondback, as something which he hadn’t been in recent years, as a strike-throwing machine who hits the zone with 67% frequency and doesn’t walk many batters. Andrelton Simmons and Kole Calhoun are combined 1-for-15 against him.
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LA’s Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 6.29 ERA) remains in LA’s starting rotation. He’s 0-1 in three outings (two starts) in which he endured at least four innings. He’s struggling to succeed in his transition into the rotation. His ERA as a starter is more than twice as high as his reliever ERA. He has yet to survive more than five innings, which is concerning, because LA’s bullpen ranks sixth-to-last in terms of FIP.
Despaigne relies primarily on a fastball-sinker-cutter combo. These three pitches comprise 72% of his arsenal on the season, 84% so far in August. Some of his pitches show good movement and others respectable velocity. But he can’t command any of them well—he throws each of them at a much higher rate for a ball. His best pitch is the sinker, which opponents hit only .167 against. But the ball rate of his sinker is nearly twice as high as its strike rate. Opponents hit over .600 against both his fastball and cutter.
Arizona is 7-2 after the All-Star Break in the last game of a series. In August, Arizona ranks 10th in slugging against his three pitches from righties. Watch for David Peralta, who hits .346 at home. Paul Goldschmidt is batting .522 in his past seven days.
