MLB Parlay for May 19: A Bet That Pays (+270)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Is Pitching for Arizona?
Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight for his seventh start of the season.
Gallen has allowed more than one earned run in one start this season.
In that exception, he allowed two earned runs.
His superb ERA could hardly be qualified as a fluke because it is largely substantiated by a 2.22 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Gallen's FIP (and ERA) have never been better in what is now his fourth professional season.
Does Gallen's Strikeout Rate Matter?
It is true that he is actually striking out fewer batters than before.
But strikeouts are overrated and too easily glorified. They are not necessary for a pitcher to succeed.
Strikeouts don't really matter to Gallen because he can rely on inducing outs by generating contact.
He does do a good job of forcing batters to swing at pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone.
Heat maps show that he very ably places his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where batters must be unsure about their location.
Plus, the relatively strong movement of his pitches effectively toys with the batter's perception of whether his pitch will be a strike or a ball.
Given opponents' necessary uncertainty as to whether they are facing a pitch that will be called a ball or a strike, they are easily tempted to swing at his pitches that would have been balls.
Gallen, though, often doesn't finish batters off with strikeouts.
What is most important to Gallen is the strong decline in hard contact rate.
Batters are struggling against Gallen because they are having massively more trouble making good contact against his pitches.
Control
Gallen can thrive as he's doing because of his strong control.
His strong control is evident in his superior walk and home run rates.
He has walked a total of five batters in six starts and he didn't allow a home run before his last start.
These stats must be unsurprising given his ability to nibble the plate with his difficult, movement-heavy pitches.
In addition to nibbling the plate, he does a great job of distributing his favorite pitch, the fastball, along different parts of the strike zone.
While he'll elevate his cutter, he'll typically keep his changeup and curveball low.
Gallen vs. Cub Pitches
I like Gallen tonight not only because he is consistently solid this season, but also because he matches up well against Cub batters.
Chicago ranks 24th in slugging against Gallen's favorite pitches, his fastball, changeup, curveball, and cutter, from righties.
The wheels have fallen off Chicago's win streak. After its most recent two-run output, the Cubs are slated to struggle again from the plate tonight.
Who Is Pitching for the Cubs Tonight?
Cub starter Marcus Stroman will take the mound tonight.
Marcus Stroman is in a uniquely bad spot tonight.
He has not pitched since May 1 due to his placement on the COVID injured list.
Stroman is susceptible to rust. Evidence for why we should expect Stroman to be rusty is in the fact that his ERA is at its worst off six or more days' of rest.
He is someone who rather needs to have a routine of pitching off four days' rest.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Glenn Otto vs. Astro Batters
Texas starts Glenn Otto tonight.
Primarily, Otto throws a fastball, slider, and sinker.
These pitches make up about 75 percent of his arsenal.
I like the Astros because they rank fourth in slugging .444 against Otto's favorite pitches from righties.
Look out for Yordan Alvarez to build off his already strong slugging rate and OPS.
In his career against Otto, he is 3-for-6 with two doubles.
Can Texas Score Enough Runs?
The Astros start Framber Valdez tonight.
It is important to note that Valdez is a lefty because the Rangers rank bottom-10 in slugging against lefties.
I don't think that Texas can score enough runs also because of how hot Houston is.
The Astros are 3-0 in their last three games following a loss.
They scored a combined total of 21 runs in their past two games following a loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML (-112) & Astros RL (-105) at +270 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Is Pitching for Arizona?
Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight for his seventh start of the season.
Gallen has allowed more than one earned run in one start this season.
In that exception, he allowed two earned runs.
His superb ERA could hardly be qualified as a fluke because it is largely substantiated by a 2.22 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Gallen's FIP (and ERA) have never been better in what is now his fourth professional season.
Does Gallen's Strikeout Rate Matter?
It is true that he is actually striking out fewer batters than before.
But strikeouts are overrated and too easily glorified. They are not necessary for a pitcher to succeed.
Strikeouts don't really matter to Gallen because he can rely on inducing outs by generating contact.
He does do a good job of forcing batters to swing at pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone.
Heat maps show that he very ably places his pitches along the borders of the strike zone where batters must be unsure about their location.
Plus, the relatively strong movement of his pitches effectively toys with the batter's perception of whether his pitch will be a strike or a ball.
Given opponents' necessary uncertainty as to whether they are facing a pitch that will be called a ball or a strike, they are easily tempted to swing at his pitches that would have been balls.
Gallen, though, often doesn't finish batters off with strikeouts.
What is most important to Gallen is the strong decline in hard contact rate.
Batters are struggling against Gallen because they are having massively more trouble making good contact against his pitches.
Control
Gallen can thrive as he's doing because of his strong control.
His strong control is evident in his superior walk and home run rates.
He has walked a total of five batters in six starts and he didn't allow a home run before his last start.
These stats must be unsurprising given his ability to nibble the plate with his difficult, movement-heavy pitches.
In addition to nibbling the plate, he does a great job of distributing his favorite pitch, the fastball, along different parts of the strike zone.
While he'll elevate his cutter, he'll typically keep his changeup and curveball low.
Gallen vs. Cub Pitches
I like Gallen tonight not only because he is consistently solid this season, but also because he matches up well against Cub batters.
Chicago ranks 24th in slugging against Gallen's favorite pitches, his fastball, changeup, curveball, and cutter, from righties.
The wheels have fallen off Chicago's win streak. After its most recent two-run output, the Cubs are slated to struggle again from the plate tonight.
Who Is Pitching for the Cubs Tonight?
Cub starter Marcus Stroman will take the mound tonight.
Marcus Stroman is in a uniquely bad spot tonight.
He has not pitched since May 1 due to his placement on the COVID injured list.
Stroman is susceptible to rust. Evidence for why we should expect Stroman to be rusty is in the fact that his ERA is at its worst off six or more days' of rest.
He is someone who rather needs to have a routine of pitching off four days' rest.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Glenn Otto vs. Astro Batters
Texas starts Glenn Otto tonight.
Primarily, Otto throws a fastball, slider, and sinker.
These pitches make up about 75 percent of his arsenal.
I like the Astros because they rank fourth in slugging .444 against Otto's favorite pitches from righties.
Look out for Yordan Alvarez to build off his already strong slugging rate and OPS.
In his career against Otto, he is 3-for-6 with two doubles.
Can Texas Score Enough Runs?
The Astros start Framber Valdez tonight.
It is important to note that Valdez is a lefty because the Rangers rank bottom-10 in slugging against lefties.
I don't think that Texas can score enough runs also because of how hot Houston is.
The Astros are 3-0 in their last three games following a loss.
They scored a combined total of 21 runs in their past two games following a loss.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML (-112) & Astros RL (-105) at +270 odds with BetOnline
