Arizona and San Diego Southpaws Take Centerstage For Friday Picks
Arizona (0-1) at Los Angeles Dodgers (1-0)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks 1H RL
There are two rules when it comes to Robbie Ray: don't back him at home and don't fade him on the road. His career ERA at home is 4.92 compared to 3.22 on the road. Perhaps the dry climate in Arizona affects his grip. Either way, he can be formidable when he pitches outside of Arizona.
As a southpaw, Ray matches up well with L.A.'s lineup. Let's look at the Dodgers' top hitters last year by BA (minimum of 100 at-bats) from top to bottom: Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger. Of the top three, only Justin Turner is right-handed and still on the team. Seager is left-handed. Puig is gone and Muncy and Bellinger are both left-handed. L.A.'s lefty-heavy lineup is at a disadvantage against the lefty Ray. In his career lefties are batting .215 against him on the road, yielding a 2.13 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
There are a lot of reasons not to like Dodger starter Ross Stripling--at least as a starter--until he shows otherwise. Towards the end of last season, he fell out of favor with Dodger management, although he had made the All-Star team. He was not placed on the postseason rotation and he lost his starting role due to a number of shaky performances in longer outings. He wasn't going to start today, but is currently in the rotation out of mere necessity generated by injuries elsewhere in L.A.'s rotation.
In terms of hitters, watch out especially for David Peralta, who is 5-for-15 (.333) lifetime against Stripling with four doubles. He'll help keep the Diamondbacks at least tied with the Dodgers through five innings, which is all we need because Arizona is the underdog.
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San Francisco (0-1) at San Diego (1-0)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Padres 1H RL
Today presents a good opportunity to take advantage of a significant pitching mismatch. The Padres only aren't favored more heavily because they are the Padres and they don't enjoy positive public perception.
Derek Holland is winless in three career starts in San Diego with an ERA of 5.52. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was over 4.50 each time. Padre batters enjoy consistent success against him. In 95 career at-bats, they're hitting .305 and slugging .484. Four different players are batting at least .333 against him. Watch out for newcomer Manny Machado, who is 7-for-21 (.333) lifetime against him. Franmil Reyes is 4-for-6 (.667) with a homer. Ian Kinsler had a down-year last year, but he looked fantastic in Spring Training and I expect him to revitalize himself this year.
For San Diego, expect positive statistical regression this year from Joey Lucchesi, who yielded a 3.45 xFIP (expected FIP) last year. The southpaw matches up well with San Francisco. Its top hitter from Spring Training was Brandon Belt. He hit .221 versus lefties last year compared to .270 versus righties and this trend continues throughout his career. Another central component of San Fran's lineup is Brandon Crawford, another lefty, whose career OPS is .16 lower vs southpaws than righties. Likewise typically in the middle of the lineup is Evan Longoria who is 1-for-5 in his career with three strikeouts against Lucchesi.
The only member of San Fran's lineup who poses a significant threat on paper is Buster Posey, who has suffered a slow start in Spring Training, went 1-for-4 with a single and a strikeout yesterday, and continues to battle back from injury.
Arizona (0-1) at Los Angeles Dodgers (1-0)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks 1H RL
There are two rules when it comes to Robbie Ray: don't back him at home and don't fade him on the road. His career ERA at home is 4.92 compared to 3.22 on the road. Perhaps the dry climate in Arizona affects his grip. Either way, he can be formidable when he pitches outside of Arizona.
As a southpaw, Ray matches up well with L.A.'s lineup. Let's look at the Dodgers' top hitters last year by BA (minimum of 100 at-bats) from top to bottom: Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Manny Machado, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger. Of the top three, only Justin Turner is right-handed and still on the team. Seager is left-handed. Puig is gone and Muncy and Bellinger are both left-handed. L.A.'s lefty-heavy lineup is at a disadvantage against the lefty Ray. In his career lefties are batting .215 against him on the road, yielding a 2.13 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck).
There are a lot of reasons not to like Dodger starter Ross Stripling--at least as a starter--until he shows otherwise. Towards the end of last season, he fell out of favor with Dodger management, although he had made the All-Star team. He was not placed on the postseason rotation and he lost his starting role due to a number of shaky performances in longer outings. He wasn't going to start today, but is currently in the rotation out of mere necessity generated by injuries elsewhere in L.A.'s rotation.
In terms of hitters, watch out especially for David Peralta, who is 5-for-15 (.333) lifetime against Stripling with four doubles. He'll help keep the Diamondbacks at least tied with the Dodgers through five innings, which is all we need because Arizona is the underdog.
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San Francisco (0-1) at San Diego (1-0)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Padres 1H RL
Today presents a good opportunity to take advantage of a significant pitching mismatch. The Padres only aren't favored more heavily because they are the Padres and they don't enjoy positive public perception.
Derek Holland is winless in three career starts in San Diego with an ERA of 5.52. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) was over 4.50 each time. Padre batters enjoy consistent success against him. In 95 career at-bats, they're hitting .305 and slugging .484. Four different players are batting at least .333 against him. Watch out for newcomer Manny Machado, who is 7-for-21 (.333) lifetime against him. Franmil Reyes is 4-for-6 (.667) with a homer. Ian Kinsler had a down-year last year, but he looked fantastic in Spring Training and I expect him to revitalize himself this year.
For San Diego, expect positive statistical regression this year from Joey Lucchesi, who yielded a 3.45 xFIP (expected FIP) last year. The southpaw matches up well with San Francisco. Its top hitter from Spring Training was Brandon Belt. He hit .221 versus lefties last year compared to .270 versus righties and this trend continues throughout his career. Another central component of San Fran's lineup is Brandon Crawford, another lefty, whose career OPS is .16 lower vs southpaws than righties. Likewise typically in the middle of the lineup is Evan Longoria who is 1-for-5 in his career with three strikeouts against Lucchesi.
The only member of San Fran's lineup who poses a significant threat on paper is Buster Posey, who has suffered a slow start in Spring Training, went 1-for-4 with a single and a strikeout yesterday, and continues to battle back from injury.
